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Initiator crimes, also known as near-repeat crimes, occur in places with known risk factors and vulnerabilities based on prior crime-related experiences or information. Consequently, the environment in which initiator crimes occur might be different from more general crime environments. This study aimed to analyse the differences between the environments of initiator crimes and general crimes, confirming the need for predicting initiator crimes.

We compared predictive models using data corresponding to initiator crimes and all residential burglaries without considering repetitive crime patterns as dependent variables. Using random forest and gradient boosting, representative ensemble models and predictive models were compared utilising various environmental factor data. Subsequently, we evaluated the performance of each predictive model to derive feature importance and partial dependence based on a highly predictive model.

By analysing environmental factors affecting overall residential burglary and initiator crimes, we observed notable differences in high-importance variables. Further analysis of the partial dependence of total residential burglary and initiator crimes based on these variables revealed distinct impacts on each crime. Moreover, initiator crimes took place in environments consistent with well-known theories in the field of environmental criminology.

Our findings indicate the possibility that results that do not appear through the existing theft crime prediction method will be identified in the initiator crime prediction model. Emphasising the importance of investigating the environments in which initiator crimes occur, this study underscores the potential of artificial intelligence (AI)-based approaches in creating a safe urban environment. By effectively preventing potential crimes, AI-driven prediction of initiator crimes can significantly contribute to enhancing urban safety.

Policy brief on how to mitigate the negative impacts of Universal Credit on financial insecurity and crime based on the paper d’Este, R. and Harvey, A. (2022), “The unintended consequences of welfare reforms: Universal Credit, financial insecurity, and crime”, The Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization.

Crime increased in Spain during the period of 2017–2019 after a decade of decline. This coincides with severe housing deprivation multiplying by three in just four years, affecting 3.4% of the population in 2020. However, no research has been found that analyzes whether this deterioration of the physical conditions of housing and its environmental elements has impacted the level of crime in Spain. This study aims to analyze how housing deprivation affects crime in the Spanish context.

For this purpose, different items that are considered by Eurostat as elements of housing deprivation are used. The difference generalized method of moments estimator is used for 16 Spanish regions that comprises the period from 2013 to 2019.

The results suggest that certain structural and environmental elements of housing are positively associated with crime: space (0.5% and 0.4%) and high housing expenditure (0.4% and 0.5%) are positively correlated with the two dependent variables; the lack of light and overcrowding stand out as they establish a positive and statistically significant association with four out of the six analyzed crime categories; the absence of lighting effect reaches up to 1.8% and 1.7% in the case of violent robberies and vehicle theft, respectively. Finally, pollution is negatively associated with robbery with violence (−1.9%), theft (−0.7%) and robbery with force (−0.5%).

To the best of the author’s knowledge, this is the first study that examines whether this deterioration of the physical conditions of housing has impacted the level of crime in Spain. It is also pioneering at the European level by using nonmonetary dimensions of inequality such as housing.

Home insurance is widely recognised as a tool for mitigating economic risk associated with natural disasters. This study aims to analyse the influence of homeowners’ home insurance knowledge (both objective and subjective types), perceived benefits (PB) and perceived vulnerability towards disaster loss (PVUL) on their intention to purchase (ITP).

This research makes use of survey data collected from 394 respondents (the homeowners) residing in various parts of India. The structural equation modelling is used to verify 11 hypotheses proposed in the study.

The findings indicate that both objective knowledge (OK) and subjective knowledge (SK) of home insurance have significant influence on homeowners’ benefit perception and PVUL. The homeowners’ PB of home insurance negatively affect PVUL. The OK of home insurance has a stronger influence on homeowners’ ITP home insurance than SK while the homeowners benefit perceptions and PVUL significantly affects homeowners’ ITP home insurance. These findings confirms that if homeowners are knowledgeable about home insurance, they perceive the plans as more beneficial and feel less vulnerable about catastrophic events, resulting in positive intentions towards purchasing them.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first comprehensive research that assesses the Indian homeowners’ knowledge, PB and PVUL in influencing their ITP home insurance. The finding of this paper will assist both public and private insurance companies in India and similar markets in designing and implementing effective strategies to sell home insurance policies.

In the current chapter, we discuss the shape and contours of the field of probation in Romania as they appear in scientific literature and mass media, focusing on the concerns academics and professionals have voiced about Romanian probation. We analyse the timeframe from 2014 to 2021, after the introduction of the country’s New Penal Code (NPC). We structure our argument as follows. The chapter begins with a short incursion into the historiography of probation as a field in Romania. The focus, however, is on the adoption of a NPC in 2014, as this was a significant moment that led to changes for both probation workers and probationers. While we present the first 25 years since probation was instituted in Romania in 1997 as a period of experiments, trials and errors, we aim to highlight the development and consolidation that occurred in the period after 2014 (see Durnescu 2008, 2015; Preda, 2015a, 2017; Sandu, 2016). The NPC was intended to bring forward a reconfiguration of the probation system in Romania (Preda, 2015b). Beyond the promise of the NPC, the 2014–2021 period is one where probation edges into the public sphere via extensive media coverage, including the considerable number of probationers or a string of protests by probation counsellors who felt overworked and overwhelmed. We continue the chapter by analysing the composition and the dynamics of the probation population, always looking beyond the mere numbers to other analytic markers (i.e. numbers of obligations and lengths of the probation period). We conclude the chapter by arguing that our discussion of the ‘weight’ of supervision adds to the current understanding of mass supervision by looking at the aggregated impact that different social, political, penal and cultural factors have on probation practice. In other words, large caseloads, limited human resources, precarious material conditions and negative organisational cultures are likely to generate supervision experiences that can be better interpreted by looking and thinking beyond numbers.

Prior research has drawn from entrepreneurial practice to conceptualize a variety of discreet narrative types. Research has also demonstrated that narratives are a practical and useful tool for entrepreneurs in many stages of the entrepreneurial process. This paper proposes a new narrative, shared narrative, and a conceptual model for how entrepreneurs might build such a narrative that is strategic in nature.

First, the authors review the types of narrative and introduce shared narrative as an account that narrativizes both the entrepreneur and relevant stakeholders. Then, integrating theoretical concepts from constitutive rhetoric and value co-creation, the authors introduce a conceptual framework as a three-stage process guide for entrepreneurs to build shared narratives for strategic stakeholder engagement. Leveraging the power of shared roles and salient values as the key to pre-story building process, the intended audience of the story (i.e. consumer, investor) is present from the inception of the story and integral to its success.

The authors assert that entrepreneurs need to adopt a shared narrative approach for strategic purposes. Further, the development of a shared narrative begins at the pre-story process of co-creation, focused on identifying the roles and values entrepreneurs share with their various stakeholders. Incorporating these shared roles and salient values into the entrepreneurial narrative will result in a narrative that is compelling, authentic and adaptable to different stages of the entrepreneurial process and for multiple stakeholder audiences. Post-story, this authentic narrative will result in higher levels of engagement from both the audience and the entrepreneur in the form of reciprocal action.

This paper proposes a new narrative and provides a structured process to support entrepreneurs in building shared narratives for strategic engagement with a wide range of stakeholders.

The paper aims to examine the influence of urban violence on residential property rental value in Kaduna metropolis. This is motivated by the spate of insurgency and the attendant destructions of land and properties in the past few years in the study area.

This paper adopted a survey of key sites of urban violence and also a total enumeration of all the 67-estate surveying and valuation firms in the study area to elicit from them vital information on trends on rental from 2011 to 2019. The data obtained were analyzed using both descriptive and inferential methods of statistical analysis.

The result of this study revealed that among other sources of urban violence, violence fueled by ethnic affiliations/convictions is the only significant factor that influenced rental value of residential property in the study area. The regression analysis shows that ethnic violence accounted for 21.6% of the variability observed in residential property rental value over the period of study. Furthermore, the correlation result showed that ethnic violence is negatively correlated (−0.458) and significantly related to residential property rental value.

This study concluded that the emergence of urban violence in Kaduna metropolis contributed to a fall in the rental value of residential property in the study area. This study thus suggested policy directions that could engender harmonious coexistence among different ethnic groups in the study area.

This study is expected to enhance improvement in residential property rental value in Kaduna metropolis through increase assurance to security of lives and property.

The present study aims to examine the scope and contribution of behavioural investigative advice (BIA) reports from the National Crime Agency (NCA).

The 77 BIA reports reviewed were written between 2016 and 2021. They were evaluated using Toulmin’s (1958) strategy for structuring pertinent arguments, current compliance with professional standards, the grounds and backing provided for the claims made and the potential utility of the recommendations provided.

Consistent with previous research, most of the reports involved murder and sexual offences. The BIA reports met professional standards with extremely high frequency. The 77 reports contained a total of 1,308 claims of which 99% were based on stated grounds. A warrant and/or backing was provided for 73% of the claims. Most of the claims in the BIA reports involved a behavioural evaluation of the crime scene and offender characteristics. The potential utility of the reports was judged to be 95% for informative behavioural crime scene analysis and 40% for potential new lines of enquiry.

The reports should serve as a model for the work of behavioural investigative advisers internationally.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study to systematically evaluate BIA reports commissioned by the NCA; it adds to previous similar studies by evaluating the largest number of BIA reports ever reviewed, and uniquely provides judgement of overall utility.

This paper investigates how companies become resilient to supply chain (SC) piracy through using transactional and relational governance mechanisms to develop strategies effective in environments characterized by weak regulative institutions and mistrust.

This study developed case studies of nine large manufacturers with operations in Brazil.

The companies employed transactional and relational governance mechanisms to learn from past incidents, anticipate, and respond to the threat of SC piracy, becoming more resilient over time. Transactional governance mechanisms reduced risk triggers through technology, while relational governance mechanisms enhanced trust between SC and non-SC members, allowing the members to build social capital.

The authors provide practical guidance for managers and policymakers in developing risk management strategies based on technology and collaboration to reduce SC piracy in environments characterized by mistrust.

SC piracy is a serious problem for global operations and SCs in many low-cost manufacturing locations. Besides the cost and service level consequences, the authors also highlight worker safety consequences, including the potential for kidnapping, psychological trauma, injuries, and death.

This study focuses on the little-researched topic of SC piracy. The authors examine the negative effects of a weak institutional environment, while most prior research focuses on the positive effects of a strong institutional environment. The authors position transactional and relational governance mechanisms as essential elements of SC risk resilience.

The purpose of this paper is to argue that human resource development (HRD) needs to embrace and include futures and foresight learning (FFL) as a new addition to its field of theorising and practice. The question to consider is: How can FFL become a new feature of HRD? A key part of the authors’ argument is that the inclusion of FFL will enable HRD to add to the success of any organisation and make a vital contribution to the management of people at work.

This paper firstly considers some of the debates surrounding the meaning of HRD. The authors suggest that instability of the time serves to disturb any comforts that have been created in HRD and that there is a need to consider how there might be different futures for what we still call HRD in research, practice and praxis. This paper then considers how FFL might become one possibility for expanding the existing boundaries of HRD. The authors characterise futures and foresight as a learning process, which provides new but complementary features to what is already considered as HRD. This paper will show how FFL can lead to organisation's success and the way this can be achieved.

There is a wide variety of meanings of the term HRD; however, HRD is still cast as a “weakened profession” which has to play a subservient role to others in the workplace. Over the last 15 years, the expansion of the meaning of HRD has been seen as evidence of its evolving and emerging nature and development based on a co-creation with other disciplines. This creates a space for FFL, defined as an ongoing learning process to find predictable, probable, possible and/or a variety of long-term futures. FFL embraces three key processes of scanning, futuring and reconfiguring, all of which contain a high potential for participants and others to learn as they proceed, providing outcomes at each stage. FFL has been shown to enhance organisation performance and success and HRD interventions can play a key part in implementation. This represents a significant opportunity for the HRD profession to move from weakness towards strength.

For HRD researchers, while FFL is not yet on its radar, the authors would argue that the uncertainties of the future require that more attention be given to what might lie ahead. Indeed, HRD researchers need to ask the question: What is the future of HRD research? In addition, if the authors’ call for FFL to be included in the practice of HRD, such practice will itself provide new pathways for HRD research. Further research questions might include: To what extent is FFL practiced in organisations and what role do HRD practitioners play in delivery? How does FFL impact on organisation behaviour and outcomes? What new products and services emerge from FFL? What new skills are required to deliver FFL? Can FFL enhance the status of HRD practitioners in the work place and its role in decision-making? and How can the HRD profession develop as a hybrid profession with respect to machine learning (ML)/artificial intelligence (AI)?

FFL produces outcomes that have importance for strategy, HRD practitioner can learn to facilitate FFL by action learning and in leadership development programmes. FFL offers a significant opportunity to enhance the importance of HRD in organisations and beyond. FFL offers those involved in HRD a significant opportunity to transfer ideas into practice that have an impact on organisation sustainability. HRD can play a significant role in the design and delivery of ML and AI projects.

This paper concludes with a call for embracing FFL as a challenging but important addition to how we talk about learning at work. The authors argue that FFL offers a significant opportunity to enhance the importance of HRD in organisations and beyond. At its centre, FFL involves learning by people, groups, organisations and machines and this has to be of concern to HRD.