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Accurate prediction of seasonal power consumption trends with impact disturbances provides a scientific basis for the flexible balance of the long timescale power system. Consequently, it fosters reasonable scheduling plans, ensuring the safety of the system and improving the economic dispatching efficiency of the power system.

First, a new seasonal grey buffer operator in the longitudinal and transverse dimensional perspectives is designed. Then, a new seasonal grey modeling approach that integrates the new operator, full real domain fractional order accumulation generation technique, grey prediction modeling tool and fruit fly optimization algorithm is proposed. Moreover, the rationality, scientificity and superiority of the new approach are verified by designing 24 seasonal electricity consumption forecasting approaches, incorporating case study and amalgamating qualitative and quantitative research.

Compared with other comparative models, the new approach has superior mean absolute percentage error and mean absolute error. Furthermore, the research results show that the new method provides a scientific and effective mathematical method for solving the seasonal trend power consumption forecasting modeling with impact disturbance.

Considering the development trend of longitudinal and transverse dimensions of seasonal data with impact disturbance and the differences in each stage, a new grey buffer operator is constructed, and a new seasonal grey modeling approach with multi-method fusion is proposed to solve the seasonal power consumption forecasting problem.

The highlights of the paper are as follows:

1. A new seasonal grey buffer operator is constructed.

2. The impact of shock perturbations on seasonal data trends is effectively mitigated.

3. A novel seasonal grey forecasting approach with multi-method fusion is proposed.

4. Seasonal electricity consumption is successfully predicted by the novel approach.

5. The way to adjust China's power system flexibility in the future is analyzed.

A new seasonal grey buffer operator is constructed.

The impact of shock perturbations on seasonal data trends is effectively mitigated.

A novel seasonal grey forecasting approach with multi-method fusion is proposed.

Seasonal electricity consumption is successfully predicted by the novel approach.

The way to adjust China's power system flexibility in the future is analyzed.

The purpose of this paper is to explore the internal interaction mechanism of marine scientific research and education, industrial structure upgrading and marine economic growth from a systematic perspective, based on which this work forecasts their future development trends.

In this study, a multivariate grey model is applied to the prediction of marine scientific research and education, industrial structure upgrading and marine economic growth. Considering the impact of the COVID-19 on marine development, this paper introduces the weakening buffer operator into MGM(1,m) and constructs the AWBO-MGM(1,m) model. To verify the validity and accuracy of the new model, this paper uses AWBO-MGM(1,m), MGM(1,m), GM(1,N), GM(1,1), back propagation neural network and linear regression models for simulation and prediction based on the data from 2010 to 2021, respectively.

From the theoretical perspective, the development of marine scientific research and education can accelerate industrial upgrading and promote marine economic growth by providing high-quality talents, promoting marine science and technology progress and reducing transaction costs; while the upgrading of marine industrial structure and marine economic growth can promote the development of marine scientific research and education by guiding social capital, enhancing talent demand and stimulating market vitality. From the empirical analysis, the AWBO-MGM(1,m) model can effectively deal with epidemic shocks and has higher fitting and prediction accuracy than the other five comparative models.

The government should pay attention to the construction of marine scientific research and education, so as to provide high-quality talents and advanced scientific research results for the high-quality development of marine economy. On the basis of using science and technology to firmly build the primary and secondary marine industries, the government should actively guide the labor, capital and other factors of production to the tertiary industry, thereby promoting the optimization and upgrading of marine industrial structure.

On the one hand, the interplay mechanism of marine scientific research and education, industrial structure upgrading and marine economic growth is analyzed from a systematic perspective; on the other hand, the enhanced AWBO-MGM(1,m) possesses higher forecasting performance and is applicable to the systemic multivariate forecasting problem in the presence of outstanding external shocks.

This study aims to propose a tailored Lean Six Sigma framework providing an accessible Lean Six Sigma methodology for compound feed manufacturers with the aim of mitigating rising costs and increasingly complex demands from customers.

A Lean Six Sigma framework was designed combining Lean value stream mapping and Six Sigma structured problem-solving with a case study in an Irish compound feed manufacturer.

The study found that the Lean Six Sigma implementation framework provided a simplified approach, which fitted the resource availability within compound feed manufacturing.

The study is limited by the constraints of a sole case study in providing empirical evidence of the effectiveness of the framework. Nevertheless, a conceptual Lean Six Sigma model is proposed, which will assist compound feed manufacturers implementing a continuous improvement approach.

This paper proposes a simplified approach to the implementation of Lean Six Sigma in agricultural compound feed manufacturers and in small and medium-sized organisations. This is the first such study in Ireland and will add to the body of work on Lean in agriculture and aid other agri-businesses and compound feed manufacturers in understanding how Lean Six Sigma can benefit.

China's population aging is gradually deepening and needs to be actively addressed. The purpose of this paper is to construct a novel model for analyzing the population aging.

To analyze the aging status of a region, this study has considered three major indicators: total population, aged population and the proportion of the aged population. Additionally, the authors have developed a novel grey population prediction model that incorporates the fractional-order accumulation operator and Gompertz model (GM). By combining these techniques, the authors' model provides a comprehensive and accurate prediction of population aging trends in Jiangsu Province. This research methodology has the potential to contribute to the development of effective policy solutions to address the challenges posed by the population aging.

The fractional-order discrete grey GM is suitable for predicting the aging population and has good performance. The population aging of Jiangsu Province will continue to deepen in the next few years.

The proposed model can be used to predict and analyze aging differences in Jiangsu Province. Based on the prediction and analysis results, identified some corresponding countermeasures are suggested to address the challenges of Jiangsu's future aging problem.

The fractional-order discrete grey GM is firstly proposed in this paper and this model is a novel grey population prediction model with good performance.

The purpose of this paper is to identify the key influencing factors of aviation accidents and to predict the aviation accidents caused by the factors.

This paper proposes an improved gray correlation analysis (IGCA) theory to make the relational analysis of aviation accidents and influencing factors and find out the critical causes of aviation accidents. The optimal varying weight combination model (OVW-CM) is constructed based on gradient boosted regression tree (GBRT), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) and support vector regression (SVR) to predict aviation accidents due to critical factors.

The global aviation accident data from 1919 to 2020 is selected as the experimental data. The airplane, takeoff/landing and unexpected results are the leading causes of the aviation accidents based on IGCA. Then GBRT, XGBoost, SVR, equal-weight combination model (EQ-CM), variance-covariance combination model (VCW-CM) and OVW-CM are used to predict aviation accidents caused by airplane, takeoff/landing and unexpected results, respectively. The experimental results show that OVW-CM has a better prediction effect, and the prediction accuracy and stability are higher than other models.

Unlike the traditional gray correlation analysis (GCA), IGCA weights the sample by distance analysis to more objectively reflect the degree of influence of different factors on aviation accidents. OVW-CM is built by minimizing the combined prediction error at sample points and assigns different weights to different individual models at different moments, which can make full use of the advantages of each model and has higher prediction accuracy. And the model parameters of GBRT, XGBoost and SVR are optimized by the particle swarm algorithm. The study can guide the analysis and prediction of aviation accidents and provide a scientific basis for aviation safety management.

The main operations of the powder-coating process are staggered along a closed-loop conveyor. Given the volatile market demands, using a fixed level of staffing may result in significant productivity losses. The present study aims to capture stochastic behavior and optimize operator assignment problems in a practical powder-coating process. By using the proposed methodology, when demand changes, the optimal operator assignment configuration can be provided, ensuring high labor productivity.

The powder-coating process is an important industrial application and is often a labor-intensive system. The present study adopts a practical case to optimize its staffing level. Because of its operational complexity, the problem is solved by a proposed simulation-optimization approach. The results are promising, and the proposed methodology is shown to be an effective approach.

The proposed methodology was tested for various demand levels. The optimized operator assignment configuration always improves on the performance of other staffing levels. Given the same daily throughput, the optimized operator assignment configuration can improve performance by as much as 19%. In scenarios where there is increased demand, the resulting reduction in overtime work improves performance by between 20.33% and 56.72%. In scenarios where there is reduced demand, the optimized staffing level produces improvements between 3.13% and 50%. Compared with the fixed staffing policy of the case company, the flexible staffing policy of the proposed methodology can maintain high labor productivity across demand variations. The results are consistent with the Shojinka philosophy of the Toyota Production System.

This study proposes a solution to the operator assignment decision in a labor-intensive manufacturing system – a powder-coating processing system. Powder coating provides a solid powder coating without any solvent. Because of its excellent application performance and environmental protection, it is widely used in the field of metal coating, especially appliances for offices and homes. Most of the existing literature has solved the problem by making unrealistic assumptions. The present study proposes a simulation-optimization method to solve a practical problem in powder-coating processing. The effectiveness of the proposed methodology is illustrated by a practical application. According to the experimental results, five operators can be saved for the same daily throughput. An average of 35 and 19 min of overtimes can be saved when demand increases by 10% and 20% with one less operator; between 2 and 16 operators can be saved when demand falls by 10%–60%.

The use of aviation incident data to carry out aviation risk prediction is of great significance for improving the initiative of accident prevention and reducing the occurrence of accidents. Because of the nonlinearity and periodicity of incident data, it is challenging to achieve accurate predictions. Therefore, this paper aims to provide a new method for aviation risk prediction with high accuracy.

This paper proposes a hybrid prediction model incorporating Prophet and long short-term memory (LSTM) network. The flight incident data are decomposed using Prophet to extract the feature components. Taking the decomposed time series as input, LSTM is employed for prediction and its output is used as the final prediction result.

The data of Chinese civil aviation incidents from 2002 to 2021 are used for validation, and Prophet, LSTM and two other typical prediction models are selected for comparison. The experimental results demonstrate that the Prophet–LSTM model is more stable, with higher prediction accuracy and better applicability.

This study can provide a new idea for aviation risk prediction and a scientific basis for aviation safety management.

The innovation of this work comes from combining Prophet and LSTM to capture the periodic features and temporal dependencies of incidents, effectively improving prediction accuracy.

This study evaluates the moderating role of work-based social supports (i.e. supervisor support and co-worker support) in the relationship between job insecurity and job burnout among hospitality employees in Malaysia. Besides, the direct effect between job insecurity and job burnout is examined.

The cross-sectional data of this study were based on a total of 220 self-administered questionnaires that have been completed by hospitality employees from three different states in Malaysia. Respondents were recruited based on a snowball sampling approach. The data were collected during the COVID-19 pandemic, which was from October 2020 to January 2021.

Partial least square-structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) was performed via SmartPLS software. The finding confirmed that job insecurity significantly intensifies employees' job burnout. Supervisor support and co-worker support were found to moderate the link between job insecurity and burnout. As anticipated, the relationship between job insecurity and job burnout increased when supervisor support is low. But high co-worker support was found to strengthen the impact of job insecurity on job burnout instead of the reverse.

This study supplements the existing literature by clarifying which sources of work-based social support (i.e. co-worker support or supervisor) is more salient in alleviating the adverse impact of job insecurity on job burnout during the COVID-19 pandemic among hospitality employees in Malaysia.

For prefabricated building construction, improper handling of the production scheduling for prefabricated components is one of the main reasons that affect project performance, which causes overspending, schedule overdue and quality issues. Prior research on prefabricated components production schedule has shown that optimizing the flow shop scheduling problem (FSSP) is the basis for solving this issue. However, some key resources and the behavior of the participants in the context of actual prefabricated components production are not considered comprehensively.

This paper characterizes the production scheduling of the prefabricated components problem into a permutation flow shop scheduling problem (PFSSP) with multi-optimization objectives, and limitation on mold and buffers size. The lean construction principles of value-based management (VBM) and just-in-time (JIT) are incorporated into the production process of precast components. Furthermore, this paper applies biogeography-based optimization (BBO) to the production scheduling problem of prefabricated components combined with some improvement measures.

This paper focuses on two specific scenarios: production planning and production rescheduling. In the production planning stage, based on the production factor, this study establishes a multi-constrained and multi-objective prefabricated component production scheduling mathematical model and uses the improved BBO for prefabricated component production scheduling. In the production rescheduling stage, the proposed model allows real-time production plan adjustments based on uncertain events. An actual case has been used to verify the effectiveness of the proposed model and the improved BBO.

With respect to limitations, only linear weighted transformations are used for objective optimization. In regards to research implications, this paper considers the production of prefabricated components in an environment where all parties in the supply chain of prefabricated components participate to solve the production scheduling problem. In addition, this paper creatively applies the improved BBO to the production scheduling problem of prefabricated components. Compared to other algorithms, the results show that the improved BBO show optimized result.

The proposed approach helps prefabricated component manufacturers consider complex requirements which could be used to formulate a more scientific and reasonable production plan. The proposed plan could ensure the construction project schedule and balance the reasonable requirements of all parties. In addition, improving the ability of prefabricated component production enterprises to deal with uncertain events. According to actual production conditions (such as the occupation of mold resources and storage resources of completed components), prefabricated component manufacturers could adjust production plans to reduce the cost and improve the efficiency of the whole prefabricated construction project.

The value of this article is to provide details of the procedures and resource constraints from the perspective of the precast components supply chain, which is closer to the actual production process of prefabricated components. In addition, developing the production scheduling for lean production will be in line with the concept of sustainable development. The proposed lean production scheduling could establish relationships between prefabricated component factory manufacturers, transportation companies, on-site contractors and production workers to reduce the adverse effects of emergencies on the prefabricated component production process, and promote the smooth and efficient operation of construction projects.

Saudi Arabia's 2030 vision targets an increase of 34% in non-oil revenue participation in the GDP, thus the need for automation and digital transformation. The Company ER is a market leader producing high-quality dairy products in the Kingdom and is a pioneer in the production industry. The company has recently increased the capacity of its milk factory to meet its vision. An investment was made to automate the pallet handling procedures at the milk factory to provide increased production for daily consumption. The new automation transition in Company ER's milk factory provides a unique opportunity to utilize lean management tools to improve the current automated processes before commercialization.

OEE (overall equipment effectiveness) will monitor losses for different operational losses in the new automated system and indicate system improvements, with 85% as the target. Based on DMADV (design, measure, analyze, design and validate) methodology, this study analyzes the entire automated pallet handling system. It uses lean tools to identify areas for improvement, identify waste elements and propose solutions to achieve Company ER's OEE targets.

In this paper, the outcomes will be presented as documented solutions that address the losses encountered in the production system, showing a 12.8% increase in the system's OEE.

Owing the time and resource constraint, this study only involved automated pallet handling procedures in a milk production facility. Hence, the generalization of the result is slightly limited. More studies in several different processes and sectors are required.

This study provided a valuable tool for researchers for gaining deeper understanding regarding the lean manufacturing and its implementation. For practitioners, it is useful to evaluate the degree of lean manufacturing tools in their material handling systems.

This study is the first attempt to develop lean manufacturing constructs for evaluating the automated pallet handling procedures in a milk production facility.