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This study aims to develop an econometric analysis of how modern agriculture can be a fundamental instrument for reducing the levels of multidimensional poverty in Uganda. It demonstrates the importance of agriculture in reducing inequalities amongst the poor while focusing on the relationship between increasing productions from modern agricultural practices and the poverty level across the country.

The study explores Box–Jenkins approach to cereal production data with the use of econometric analysis as the main tool to determine the implications of modern agricultural practices in Uganda. Most poor people around the world are in marginalized rural environments, and agriculture provides for their livelihoods. This makes agricultural development crucial for reducing multidimensional poverty on a large scale and needs development within agriculture to be enhanced. Education, health and standard of living are the three dimensions considered from the weighted indicators, amounting to 30%, to be categorized poor in the three dimensions.

Modernization of agriculture is an ultimate solution to multidimensional poverty reduction in Uganda through employment generation and the effects of food prices. Shreds of evidence support the theories that agricultural incomes together with the actual wages increase with a general rise in the rural non-agricultural economy. Results depict a close correlation between national income and GDP per capita which is a very significant indication that more application of agricultural technology would lead to a sub sequential improvement of livelihoods engaged in agricultural practices.

Agriculture remains a vital sector that employs a greater portion of the population in Uganda’s economy. Major roles have been played by the sector in the economy including employment opportunities, rural household incomes, food supplies and a reduction in poverty from a multidimensional front. Exploring the behavior of poverty level using modern agriculture as an indicator and its relationship with the poverty level arising from improved agricultural practices could provide a meaningful display of variation in poverty across the regions at the country level.

The purpose of this paper is to review the current literature in the field of tourism demand forecasting.

Published papers in the high quality journals are studied and categorized based their used forecasting method.

There is no forecasting method which can develop the best forecasts for all of the problems. Combined forecasting methods are providing better forecasts in comparison to the traditional forecasting methods.

This paper reviews the available literature from 2007 to 2017. There is not such a review available in the literature.

Covid-19 pandemic is a unique and extraordinary situation for the globe, which has potentially disrupted almost all aspects of life. In this global crisis, the tourism and hospitality sector has collapsed in almost all parts of the world, and the same is true for India. Therefore, this paper aims to investigate the impact of Covid-19 on the Indian tourism industry.

This study develops an appropriate model to forecast the expected loss of foreign tourist arrivals (FTAs) in India for 10 months. Since the FTAs follow a seasonal trend, seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) method has been employed to forecast the expected FTAs in India from March 2020 to December 2020. The results of the proposed model are then compared with the ones obtained by Holt-Winter's (H-W) model to check the robustness of the proposed model.

The SARIMA model seeks to manifest the monthly arrival of foreign tourists and also elaborates on the progressing expected loss of foreign tourists arrive for the next three quarters is approximately 2 million, 2.3 million and 3.2 million, respectively. Thus, in the next three quarters, there will be an enormous downfall of FTAs, and there is a need to adopt appropriate measures. The comparison demonstrates that SARIMA is a better model than H-W model.

Several studies have been reported on pandemic-affected tourism sectors using different techniques. The earlier pandemic outbreak was controlled and region-specific, but the Covid-19 eruption is a global threat having potential ramifications and strong spreading power. This work is one of the first attempts to study and analyse the impact of Covid-19 on FTAs in India.

This paper was set to develop a model for forecasting maize production in Tanzania using the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) approach. The aim is to forecast future production of maize for the next 10 years to help identify the population at risk of food insecurity and quantify the anticipated maize shortage.

Annual historical data on maize production (hg/ha) from 1961 to 2021 obtained from the FAOSTAT database were used. The ARIMA method is a robust framework for forecasting time-series data with non-seasonal components. The model was selected based on the Akaike Information Criteria corrected (AICc) minimum values and maximum log-likelihood. Model adequacy was checked using plots of residuals and the Ljung-Box test.

The results suggest that ARIMA (1,1,1) is the most suitable model to forecast maize production in Tanzania. The selected model proved efficient in forecasting maize production in the coming years and is recommended for application.

The study used partially processed secondary data to fit for Time series analysis using ARIMA (1,1,1) and hence reliable and conclusive results.

This paper aims to propose a hybrid-forecasting model for long-term tourism demand forecasting. As such, it attempts to model the tourism demand in the Philippines, which is a relatively underrepresented area in the literature, despite its tourism sector’s growing economic progress.

A hybrid support vector regression (SVR) – seasonal autoregressive integrated moving averages (SARIMA) model is proposed to model the seasonal, linear and nonlinear components of the tourism demand in a destination country. The paper further proposes the use of multiple criteria decision-making (MCDM) approaches in selecting the best forecasting model among a set of considered models. As such, a preference ranking organization method for enrichment of evaluations (PROMETHEE) II is used to rank the considered forecasting models.

The proposed hybrid SVR-SARIMA model is the best performing model among a set of considered models in this paper using performance criteria that evaluate the errors of magnitude, directionality and trend change, of a forecasting model. Moreover, the use of the MCDM approach is found to be a relevant and prospective approach in selecting the best forecasting model among a set of models.

The novelty of this paper lies in several aspects. First, this paper pioneers the demonstration of the SVR-SARIMA model’s capability in forecasting long-term tourism demand. Second, this paper is the first to have proposed and demonstrated the use of an MCDM approach for performing model selection in forecasting. Finally, this paper is one of the very few papers to provide lenses on the current status of Philippine tourism demand.

The present study aims to examine the effects of the Islamic sacred months, namely, Muḥarram, Rajab, Dhu al-Qaʿdah and Dhu al-Ḥijjah, on stock prices on the Iran and Iraq Stock Exchanges.

Using the infrastructure models of the capital market, the daily stock prices were calculated for the sacred and non-sacred months. As the data of this study are non-stationary, the AMIRA time-series model was used for better understanding of the model or future projections. The dependent variables of this study are the daily stock indexes for Iranian and Iraqi Stock Exchanges, and independent ones are the sacred and non-sacred months of a lunar year. Data were gathered daily from the financial statements of Iranian and Iraqi Stock Exchanges websites. To test the hypotheses under study, a five-year period from 2012 to 2016 was considered for both Iraqi and Iranian Stock Exchanges, which corresponds with the lunar calendar from 1433-1437AH.

The obtained results indicated that there is no significant difference in stock prices between the sacred months of Muḥarram, Rajab, Dhu al-Qaʿdah and Dhu al-Ḥijjah and other non-sacred months. However, the stock price in the Iranian Stock Exchange has a significant difference in Rajab and Dhu al-Qaʿdah with other non-sacred months.

The results of this study will reveal more than ever the role of Islamic sacred months for society and users of financial statements to make better financial decisions especially in Islamic emerging markets.

This study focuses on forecasting the price of the most important export crops of vegetables and fruits in Egypt from 2016 to 2030.

The study applied generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model.

The results show that ARIMA (1,1,1), ARIMA (2.1,2), ARIMA (1,1,0), ARIMA (1,1,2), ARIMA (0,1,0) and ARIMA (1,1,1) are the most appropriate fitted models to evaluate the volatility of price of green beans, tomatoes, onions, oranges, grapes and strawberries, respectively. The results also revealed the presence of ARCH effect only in the case of Potatoes, hence it is suggested that the GARCH approach be used instead. The GARCH (1,1) is found to be a better model in forecasting price of potatoes.

The study of food price volatility in developing countries is essential, since a significant share of household budgets is spent on food in these economies, so forecasting agricultural prices is a substantial requirement for drawing up many economic plans in the fields of agricultural production, consumption, marketing and trade.

The objective of this study is to mitigate the risks of a blood shortage. The authors designed two simulation studies to identify the superior methodology that can decrease the impact of a massive national donor shortage.

The simulation designs are triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic. The first simulation examines the company’s choice of strategic partners (regionally and nationally), and the second inspects creating a national coordinated effort to organize a pooled blood inventory that would require blood centers to contribute a small percentage of their monthly donations to become a member.

The results indicate that both methods can significantly manage the risk of stockouts regardless of the availability of safety inventory in a blood center; however, although more effective in reducing the number of shortages per month, creating a national blood pool causes the shortages to be recognized earlier than desired.

The authors contribute to the literature by focusing on the potential risk of blood shortage because it directly impacts healthcare, hospitals’ costs and their ability to provide care. Though a handful of researchers have targeted the study of the blood supply chain, there is not any article that is similar to this study.

The economic and administrative conditions of countries normatively have an effect on the economy and level of market development. Moreover, it is of great importance for a healthy economy whether the public institutions and organizations are transparent and functioning in accordance with their purpose. The aim of this study is to show whether there is a relationship between transparency and market efficiency.

Correlation analysis has been conducted between prediction accuracy rates, which are obtained by seven different machine learning algorithms and Corruption Perception Index (CPI) levels.

It has been statistically shown that the indices of countries with low corruption levels are harder to predict, which, in turn, can be interpreted as having higher weak-form market efficiency. According to that, an intermediate negative correlation has been found between CPI scores and predictability levels of stock indices. Considering the findings, it can be interpreted that the markets of countries with relatively more transparent and well-functioning public sector have more weak-form market efficiency.

The study can be extended with cutting-edge machine learning and deep learning techniques in future studies. There are very few studies which try to explain factors related to market efficiency. Thus, the authors claim that there is still room for further research in order to determine the factors related to market efficiency, implying that current literature is still far from explaining the causation behind the inefficiencies.

According to findings, the markets of countries with relatively more transparent and well-functioning public sector have more weak-form market efficiency. Based on these findings, in practice, it can be said that more successful predictions can be made using machine learning algorithms in countries with relatively lower CPI scores.

In literature, the factors related to market efficiency are still far from explaining the causation behind the inefficiencies. Thus, it has been investigated whether transparent and well-functioning public institutions and organizations have any relation with market efficiency.

This paper examined the volatility models for exchange rate return, including Random Walk model, AR model, GARCH model and extensive GARCH model, with Normal and Student-t distribution assumption as well as nonparametric specification test of these models. We fit these models to Bangladesh foreign exchange rate index from January 1999 to December 31, 2012. The return series of Bangladesh foreign exchange rate are leptokurtic, significant skewness, deviation from normality as well as the returns series are volatility clustering as well. We found that student t distribution into GARCH model improves the better performance to forecast the volatility for Bangladesh foreign exchange market. The traditional likelihood comparison showed that the importance of GARCH model in modeling of Bangladesh foreign market, but the modern nonparametric specification test found that RW, AR and the model with GARCH effect are still grossly mis-specified. All these imply that there is still a long way before we reach the adequate specification for Bangladesh exchange rate dynamics.