Search results

This paper examines how the macroeconomic environment affects the determinants of prepayment of mortgage loans from October 2004 to February 2020. For more accurate analysis, the authors define the timing of prepayment not only before the loan maturity but also at the time when 50% or more of the loan principal is repaid. The results show that, during the global financial crisis as well as the recent period of low interest rates, macroeconomic variables such as interest rate spreads and housing prices have a different effect compared to the normal situation. Also, significant explanatory variables, such as debt to income (DTI) ratio, loan amount ratio and poor credit score, have different effects depending on the macroenvironment. On the other hand, in all periods, the possibility of prepayment increases as comprehensive loan to value (CLTV) increases, and the younger the age, the shorter the loan maturity. The results suggest that, in the case of ultralong (40 years) mortgage loans recently introduced to support young people purchasing houses, the prepayment risk can be, at least partially, migrated by offsetting the increase in prepayment by young people and the decrease in prepayment due to long loan maturity. In addition, this study confirms that the accelerated time failure model compared to the logit model and COX proportional risk model has the potential to be more appropriate as a prepayment model for individual borrower analysis in terms of the explanatory power.

Crowdfunding (CF) has become an increasingly popular means of financing for entrepreneurs and has attracted significant attention from both researchers and practitioners in recent years. The purpose of this study is to investigate the core content and knowledge diffusion paths in the CF field. Specifically, we aim to identify the main topics and themes that have emerged in this field and to trace the evolution of CF knowledge over time.

This study employs co-word clustering and main path analysis (MPA) to examine the historical development of CF research based on 1,528 journal articles retrieved from the Web of Science Core Collection database.

The results of the analysis reveal that CF research focuses on seven themes: sustainability, entrepreneurial finance, entrepreneurship, fintech, social entrepreneurship, social capital, and microcredits. The analysis of the four main paths reveals that equity CF has been the dominant topic in the past years. Recently, CF research has tended to focus on topics such as fintech, the COVID-19 pandemic, competition, Brexit, and policy response.

To the authors' best knowledge, this is the first attempt to explore knowledge diffusion dynamics in the CF field. Overall, the study offers a structure for analyzing the paths through which knowledge is diffused, enabling scholars to effectively manage a large volume of research papers and gain a deeper understanding of the historical, current, and future trends in the development of CF.

To enhance the loan repayment performance of microfinance institutions (MFIs) in Pakistan, this study aims to analyze the direct impact of social capital and loan credit terms on loan repayment performance and microenterprises’ business performance while considering the mediating role of microenterprises’ business performance on the relationship between social capital, loan credit terms and loan repayment performance.

The analysis was conducted based on the data gathered via a questionnaire distributed to 316 microenterprises owners. The respondents were selected using the stratified sampling technique by dividing the target population into three influential groups of manufacturing, trading and services microenterprises. The reliability and validity of the constructs were established using (1) factor loading, (2) Cronbach’s alpha, (3) composite reliability, (4) average variance extracted, (5) the variance inflation factor, (6) the Fornell–Larcker criterion and (7) the heterotrait–monotrait ratio. The structural equation modeling technique was then applied, and the hypotheses were tested based on the structure model generated through bootstrapping by using partial least squares structural equation modeling.

The results confirm the direct impact of social capital and loan credit terms on microenterprises’ business performance and loan repayment performance. It also supports the mediating role of microenterprises’ business performance toward the relationship between social capital, loan credit terms and loan repayment performance while considering the direct impact of microenterprises’ business performance on loan repayment performance.

To date, the direct impact of social capital and loan credit terms on microenterprises’ business performance and loan repayment performance has been hardly investigated in the context of Pakistan. This study also examines the mediating role of microenterprises’ business performance toward social capital, loan credit terms and loan repayment performance. The findings will enable both MFIs and microenterprises to improve their business performance and loan repayment performance through enhanced social ties and the development of more flexible credit products that protect the borrowers’ interests and the interest of lenders.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the determinants of the amount of trade credit granted to shrimp farmers in Ca Mau.

Based on the literature review, the authors proposed six hypotheses on the determinants of the amount of trade credit granted to shrimp farmers. Data collected from 120 shrimp farmers in Ca Mau were used to test the proposed hypotheses.

Two out of six determinants, i.e. the size of input order (a pulling factor) and the competition among input suppliers (a pushing factor), are significantly positively associated with the amount of trade credit granted to shrimp farmers. No impact of the other determinants was found. The findings imply that shrimp farmers should join cooperatives to enhance access to trade credit and mitigate the risk for input suppliers.

This paper sheds light on the fact that trade credit is still granted to such risky buyers as shrimp farmers, which has not been explored by previous studies.

This study seeks to examine the extent to which strands of inflationary related conditions (inflation expectations, inflation uncertainty and realized inflation); macroeconomic uncertainty and the likelihood of recessionary conditions influence performance indicators in the US banking sector over a specified time period.

The study adopts seemingly unrelated regression model (SUR) advanced by Zellner (1962) in its examination of how specific strands of inflationary conditions, and other adverse macroeconomic conditions influence performance dynamics in the US banking sector.

Empirical evidence suggest that among various adverse macroeconomic conditions examined, inflation expectations and macroeconomic uncertainty tend to have significant constraining impact on key performance indicators in the US banking sector than other conditions examined. Comparatively, this study finds that inflation expectations and macroeconomic uncertainty tend to have much more constraining impact on return on equity, than on return on assets in the US banking sector. Results further suggest that among the three bank performance indicators examined, net interest margin is the least vulnerable bank performance indicator to various adverse macroeconomic conditions examined in the study.

Apart from the various empirical results noted above, this study's findings are projected to help inform strategic planning decisions among institutions in the banking sector. The various findings could, for instance, inform policies and operational strategies geared toward reducing vulnerability associated with specific performance indicators such as return on equity. This reduction could be achieved by critically examining how the various performance indicators react to individual adverse macroeconomic conditions examined in this study. The process could ultimately help in developing tailored measures/procedures aimed at reducing how susceptible key performance indicators are to the various adverse macroeconomic conditions. This study's findings could also provide the platform for more adaptive policies aimed at minimizing the effects of noted macroeconomic conditions on operational efficiency in the banking sector.

The uniqueness of this study, compared to related ones found in the literature, stems from its treatment of three variant of related strands of macroeconomic condition (different variant of inflationary conditions) in the same framework in its empirical analysis.

本研究旨在探討與通貨膨脹有關的狀況的組成部分(通脹預期 、通脹不確定性及體現了的通脹), 宏觀經濟不確定性及經濟衰退狀況的可能性、在一段特定時間內對美國銀行業的表現指數有何種程度的影響。

研究採用塞爾納 (Zellner) (1962) 提出的看似無關迴歸模型 (SUR)，去探討通脹狀況的特定組成部分及其它不利的宏觀經濟狀況如何影響美國銀行業內的績效動態。

實證證據暗示在被研究的各個不利宏觀經濟狀況中，通脹預期及宏觀經濟不確定性，對美國銀行業內的主要業績指標的約束影響, 與其它被探討的狀況相比，往往會較重大。相對地、本研究結果顯示通脹預期及宏觀經濟不確定性，對美國銀行業資本回報率的約束影響、往往遠多於資產收益率。研究結果進一步顯示，在被探討的三個銀行業績指標中，就本研究所探討的各個不利的宏觀經濟狀況而言，淨息差是脆弱性最小的銀行業績指標。

除了上述各實證結果外，本研究結果預期會給銀行業內機構間作戰略規劃的決定時提供資料，譬如，各項研究結果或可在制定旨在減少與特定業績指標如資本回報率相聯繫的脆弱性的政策和經營策略時提供資料。這脆弱性的減少，是透過嚴謹地研究各個業績指標，如何對在本研究中被探討的個別不利宏觀經濟狀況作出反應而達致的。這程序或許最終會幫助建立一個以減少各個不利宏觀經濟狀況對主要業績指標的影響為目的的量身定制措施／程序。本研究的結果，或許亦可為更多旨在減弱眾所周知的宏觀經濟狀況對銀行業運營效率的影響的適應性政策提供平台。

與文獻中可見的相關研究比較，本研究的獨特性源於其實證分析，是涉及在同一個構架內處理宏觀經濟狀況相互有關的組成部分的三個變體 (通脹狀況的不同變體) 。

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the impact of short-term loan (STL) vs long-term loan (LTL) on wheat productivity of small farms in Sindh, Pakistan.

The econometric estimation is based on cross-sectional data collected in 2016 from 18 villages in three districts, i.e. Shikarpur, Sukkur and Shaheed Benazirabad, Sindh, Pakistan. The sample data set consist of 180 wheat farmers. The collected data were analyzed through different econometric techniques like Cobb–Douglas production function and Instrumental variables (two-stage least squares) approach.

This study reconfirmed that agricultural credit has a positive and highly significant effect on wheat productivity, while the short-term loan has a stronger effect on wheat productivity than the long-term loan. The reasons behind the phenomenon may be the significantly higher usage of agricultural inputs like seeds of improved variety and fertilizers which can be transformed into the wheat yield in the same year. However, the LTL users have significantly higher investments in land preparation, irrigation and plant protection, which may lead to higher wheat production in the coming years.

In the present study, only those wheat farmers were considered who obtained agricultural loans from formal financial institutions like Zarai Taraqiati Bank Limited and Khushhali Bank. However, in the rural areas of Sindh, Pakistan, a considerable proportion of small-scale farmers take credit from informal financial channels. Therefore future researchers should consider the informal credits as well.

This is the first paper to examine the effects of agricultural credit on wheat productivity of small farms in Sindh, Pakistan. This paper will be an important addition to the emerging literature regarding effects of credit studies.

The primary objective of this paper is to identify and compare the collateral imposition practices among Islamic banks in Indonesia to serve micro, small and medium-sized enterprise (MSME) clients and explore the experiences and perceptions of MSME entrepreneurs pertaining to collateralisation in MSME financing.

This study was carried out by implementing a case study research strategy. The data was gathered primarily through the interview by utilising purposive uncontrolled quota sampling. The interview was conducted using semi-structured interview questions by targeting the two sides of Islamic financial inclusion: the Islamic banking industry (supply-side) and the MSME segment (demand-side).

This paper implies that the collateral provision is indeed an obligatory requirement for MSME to access regular financing in an Islamic bank, preferably the immovable type that consists of land and property. Subsequently, although the Islamic banks offer non-collateralised financing, their disbursement is still relatively scant and limited. Furthermore, despite the collateral issues, most MSME entrepreneurs positively perceive the bank’s collateralisation practice, indicating their awareness and understanding of the collateral purpose and function to access the financing facility.

This paper merely observed six Islamic bank institutions and 22 MSME units in urban and rural areas in Indonesia using a case study approach. Therefore, the empirical findings and case discussions were limited to those around the corresponding Islamic banks and MSME participants.

By referring to the several disclosed issues associated with the collateral imposition practices, this paper presents several recommendations that might be considered by the policymakers and the Islamic banking industry to enhance the realisation of MSME Islamic financial inclusion from the collateral implementation aspect, and thereby, facilitating more inclusive growth for the MSME industry.

This paper is unique since the paper attempts to analyse and compare the collateral imposition practices and its perception from the two distinct sides of Islamic financial inclusion that were represented by Islamic banks and MSMEs in Indonesia by including different types of Islamic banks and different segments of MSME in their diverse business sector within the urban and rural locations.

This paper investigates the effect of entrepreneurial orientation (EO) on small- and medium-sized enterprises' (SMEs) access to credit. Starting with the idea that SMEs' strategy-making process, structures and behaviour can favour credit access, the authors also explore the moderating role of bank lending technologies in shaping this relationship.

This study relies on a unique survey of Austrian and Italian SMEs which contains detailed information on access to credit, EO dimensions, relationship lending and firm-level characteristics. The authors perform stepwise logistic regressions to assess whether EO interacts with SME's access to finance, and how relationship lending enhances this relationship.

Proactiveness, autonomy and competitive aggressiveness are important constructs for improving access to bank financing. Those dimensions became more important when a relationship bank is involved, suggesting a role for relationship lending in overcoming SMEs' opaqueness. In addition, relationship lending is crucial for innovative SMEs in overcoming credit denial rates.

The small sample did not allow to analyse the effect of EO on discouraged borrowers. Furthermore, alternative measures of relationship lending (such as geographical proximity or the length of the relationship) and the share of credit granted by the relationship bank would have been interesting to further validate our results.

This study shows that EO dimensions and the type of lending technology are relevant for the financial success of SMEs. More precisely, the authors show that diversity within the banking system helps innovative, autonomous, proactive and competitive SMEs. These important pieces of soft information are injected into the final lending decision when a relationship bank is involved. The evidence suggests the need for SMEs to interact with local banks to fully exploit their EO posture.

To the authors' knowledge, this paper is the first attempt to analyse whether relationship lending can affect the EO–credit access relation.

Loan default risk or credit risk evaluation is important to financial institutions which provide loans to businesses and individuals. Loans carry the risk of being defaulted. To understand the risk levels of credit users (corporations and individuals), credit providers (bankers) normally collect vast amounts of information on borrowers. Statistical predictive analytic techniques can be used to analyse or to determine the risk levels involved in loans. This paper aims to address the question of default prediction of short-term loans for a Tunisian commercial bank.

The authors have used a database of 924 files of credits granted to industrial Tunisian companies by a commercial bank in the years 2003, 2004, 2005 and 2006. The naive Bayesian classifier algorithm was used, and the results show that the good classification rate is of the order of 63.85 per cent. The default probability is explained by the variables measuring working capital, leverage, solvency, profitability and cash flow indicators.

The results of the validation test show that the good classification rate is of the order of 58.66 per cent; nevertheless, the error types I and II remain relatively high at 42.42 and 40.47 per cent, respectively. A receiver operating characteristic curve is plotted to evaluate the performance of the model. The result shows that the area under the curve criterion is of the order of 69 per cent.

The paper highlights the fact that the Tunisian central bank obliged all commercial banks to conduct a survey study to collect qualitative data for better credit notation of the borrowers.

El riesgo de incumplimiento de préstamos o la evaluación del riesgo de crédito es importante para las instituciones financieras que otorgan préstamos a empresas e individuos. Existe el riesgo de que el pago de préstamos no se cumpla. Para entender los niveles de riesgo de los usuarios de crédito (corporaciones e individuos), los proveedores de crédito (banqueros) normalmente recogen gran cantidad de información sobre los prestatarios. Las técnicas analíticas predictivas estadísticas pueden utilizarse para analizar o determinar los niveles de riesgo involucrados en los préstamos. En este artículo abordamos la cuestión de la predicción por defecto de los préstamos a corto plazo para un banco comercial tunecino.

Utilizamos una base de datos de 924 archivos de créditos concedidos a empresas industriales tunecinas por un banco comercial en 2003, 2004, 2005 y 2006. El algoritmo bayesiano de clasificadores se llevó a cabo y los resultados muestran que la tasa de clasificación buena es del orden del 63.85%. La probabilidad de incumplimiento se explica por las variables que miden el capital de trabajo, el apalancamiento, la solvencia, la rentabilidad y los indicadores de flujo de efectivo.

Los resultados de la prueba de validación muestran que la buena tasa de clasificación es del orden de 58.66% ; sin embargo, los errores tipo I y II permanecen relativamente altos, siendo de 42.42% y 40.47%, respectivamente. Se traza una curva ROC para evaluar el rendimiento del modelo. El resultado muestra que el criterio de área bajo curva (AUC, por sus siglas en inglés) es del orden del 69%.

El documento destaca el hecho de que el Banco Central tunecino obligó a todas las entidades del sector llevar a cabo un estudio de encuesta para recopilar datos cualitativos para un mejor registro de crédito de los prestatarios.

Curva ROC, Evaluación de riesgos, Riesgo de incumplimiento, Sector bancario, Algoritmo clasificador bayesiano.

Artículo de investigación

The study examines the impact of the preferential credit provided by the Vietnam Bank for Social Policies on poverty reduction in Ninh Binh province, Vietnam. It also identifies and ranks the barriers of accessing the credit.

The study applies fixed-effects method to handle the panel data to examine the impact of the credit on poverty reduction. It also uses face-to-face interviews and group discussions to identify and rank the barriers of accessing to the credit.

The results show that the credit (represented by loan volume) positively and significantly helps improve household income, but does not help to improve household consumption. The major barriers include the time spent to get to the nearest bank branch, banking support services provided to clients and the transparency of household poverty status assessment.

Data are collected in three years and the number of the observations is limited to 300 households.

The VBSP preferential credit may need to be modified to significantly help reduce poverty and the VBSP and involved parties may need to eliminate the barriers so that the poor can have a better access to the credit.

The VBSP preferential credit is one of the reasonable sources that can help eliminate poverty though increasing household income.

The VBSP preferential credit can help increase household income, but does not really help improve household consumption due to the small volume of loans. In addition, banking support services and the household poverty assessment are seen as barriers to the access of the poor.