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Se estudian los determinantes y la evolución de la actividad bursátil mensual en el mercado accionario colombiano de 2007 a 2016.

Para ello se emplean modelos de series de tiempo tipo ARIMAX y GARCH, incluyendo variables exógenas, recomendadas por la literatura previa.

Encontramos que la actividad bursátil puede ser pronosticada en buena parte por el valor rezagado a un mes y las innovaciones de cinco y 12 meses. También contribuyen a predecirla, como variables exógenas, una dummy de rendimientos positivos en los últimos tres meses, la presencia de emisiones primarias y el índice VIX de volatilidad del SP500. Estos resultados se mantienen en un alto grado al emplear medidas alternativas de actividad bursátil, el número total de operaciones y la rotación.

Se propone un modelo de predicción de la actividad bursátil que puede servir de modelo para otros mercados accionarios de Latinoamérica. El modelo obtenido es altamente predictivo del valor transado total del mercado al siguiente mes. La estimación de la actividad bursátil es de utilidad para instituciones como la Bolsa de Valores de Colombia, reguladores de los mercados financieros, así como para grandes inversionistas institucionales.

El propósito central de los mercados financieros secundarios consiste en facilitar la transacción de activos financieros, lo que debe reflejarse en alta actividad bursátil, tanto en número de operaciones como en valor transado total. La posibilidad de transar altos montos es una medida importante del desarrollo de un mercado financiero. De esta manera, el modelo aquí propuesto puede usarse para monitorizar y explicar el desarrollo del mercado. En particular, se evidencia el nocivo efecto de la debacle de Interbolsa a finales de 2012 y el positivo efecto de las emisiones primarias.

Este es el primer paper en estudiar la actividad bursátil del mercado accionario colombiano en años recientes. Sirve como modelo para el estudio y seguimiento de esta variable en otros mercados accionarios latinoamericanos.

To study the determinants and evolution of the trading activity in the Colombian Stock Market from 2007 to 2016.

ARMA time series models were used, including several explanatory variables recommended by previous literature.

We find that stock market activity can be predicted to a large extent by its lags, and that positive returns in the last three months, emissions and the VIX index are also explicative variables, as suggested by empirical studies in other countries and theoretical models of market microstructure. These results are robust by using alternative measures of trading activity, total number of trades and turnover.

The main contribution of this study is the analysis of the trading activity of the Colombian Stock Market, a critical variable for monitoring the development of any financial market.

The purpose of this paper is to examine the earnings quality of companies listed on Mexico’s primary stock market, the Bolsa Mexicana de Valores (Bolsa) before and during the global economic crisis of 2008. Previous research has shown that these economic events can have potentially conflicting effects on the quality of earnings of listed companies in capital markets around the world.

This paper operationalizes earnings quality based on earnings management. Therefore, four constructs to proxy for earnings quality are developed from previous literature, and multiple regression analysis along with tests of differences across two time periods, 2005–2007 and 2008–2010, are used to determine if there is a significant change in the accounting quality of companies listed on the Bolsa before and after the start of the global economic crisis.

Results indicate a statistically significant decrease of earnings quality on three out of the four constructs used to proxy for earnings management. There is only one construct in this category that shows a significant increase of earnings quality.

There are different number of constructs and methodologies used to test for earnings quality. This study draws on four different constructs on two dimensions of earnings quality from previous literature, but other methodologies and constructs can potentially be used as well, such as discretionary accruals. Furthermore, there is a chance that there can be confounding factors affecting the results of this study besides the effects of the global economic crisis. Finally, the sample used in this study comprises non-financial public companies listed on the Bolsa, which can affect the generalization of the results to countries other than Mexico.

The results of this study can be of interest to Mexican and foreign investors, standard setters and regulators of the Bolsa, as the results show a strong incentive to manage companies’ earnings using income smoothing in an emerging economy during an economic crisis even after converging to a higher-quality set of accounting standards. Results can also be of interests to investors and regulators in other Latin-American countries with economies similar to that of Mexico.

This is the first study to test the quality of earnings of Mexican companies before and during the global economic crisis of 2008. Thus, this study contributes to the accounting quality literature by offering evidence showing a significant increase of income smoothing during the global economic crisis for companies listed in a developing economy with a relevant history of economic crises, even when these companies were using recently converged, higher-quality accounting standards.

Six research papers are published on this issue: three on finances, two regarding public administration and one on business economy. They come from six countries and ten universities. The first paper analyses the effect of a new platform for transactions in the Colombian stock exchange. The second studies the factors that influence the capital structure of the non‐financial companies that quote in the stock market of Lima. The third studies a sample of Brazilian coffee growers in order to determine the influence of attitudes and behaviours in their price risk management decisions. The fourth studies the relation between financial stress, decentralisation and outsourcing of public local services in Spain, by particularly taking into account the length of the financial stress, the effectiveness of the measures taken to attenuate it and the lapse between the crisis and an answer based on the portion of privatisation and decentralisation of the public services. The fifth explores the Chilean small and medium businesses determinants that from their beginnings are orientated towards the global international market. Lastly, the concepts of marketing services and higher education are used to analyse the evaluations of professors given by Mexican university students. The journal is shifting towards a new electronic platform. It will begin to be trimestral in the year 2015 and will continue to broaden its net of Associate Editors.

En este número publicamos seis artículos de investigación: tres en finanzas, dos en administración pública, y uno en economía de negocios, provenientes de seis países y diez universidades. El primer artículo analiza el efecto de una nueva plataforma para las transacciones en la bolsa de valores de Colombia. El segundo, estudia los factores que influyen en la estructura de capital de las empresas no financieras que cotizan en el mercado de valores de Lima. El tercero, estudia una muestra de cultivadores de café brasileños para determinar la influencia de las actitudes y comportamientos en sus decisiones de gestión del riesgo del precio. El cuarto, estudia la relación entre estrés financiero, descentralización y contratación externa de servicios públicos locales en España, particularmente al enfocarse en la consideración de la duración del estrés financiero, la efectividad de las medidas tomadas para atenuarlo, y el lapso entre la crisis y una respuesta basada en la opción de privatización y descentralización de servicios públicos. El quinto explora los determinantes de que las pequeñas y medianas empresas chilenas desde el principio estén orientadas al mercado global internacional. Finalmente, se utilizan conceptos del mercadeo de servicios y la educación superior para el análisis de las evaluaciones de los profesores por parte de los estudiantes universitarios mexicanos. La revista está migrando a una nueva plataforma electrónica, pasará a ser trimestral en el año 2015 y se continúa ampliando la red de Editores Asociados.

The purpose of this paper is to determine the factors that influence in the capital structure of non‐financial companies listed in the Stock Exchange of Lima.

To achieve this goal, the authors used the panel data model with random effects. The study of the capital structure has focussed on the Trade‐off Theory which states that firms finance their investments for tax benefits, while the Pecking Order Theory states that companies have an order of priority on obtaining funding.

The results obtained confirm that profitability, size, collateral value of assets (CVA) and non‐debt tax shields (NDTS) are the factors that determine the level of long‐term debt of these Peruvian companies.

The results obtained confirm that profitability, size, CVA and NDTS are the factors that determine the level of long‐term debt of these Peruvian companies.

This paper is a first contribution on the determinants of the level of indebtedness of the companies in Peru. There is an extensive literature on the determinants of capital structure, but it is the first work done for the business sector in Peru.

El objetivo de este trabajo es determinar los factores que influyen en la estructura de capital de las empresas no financieras peruanas que listan valores en la Bolsa de Valores de Lima.

Para lograr este objetivo se ha utilizado el modelo de datos de panel con efectos aleatorios. El estudio de la estructura de capital de las empresas se ha enfocado en la teoría del trade‐off que manifiesta que las empresas financian sus inversiones para obtener ventajas fiscales, mientras que la teoría del pecking order manifiesta que las empresas tienen un orden de prioridad al momento de obtener financiamiento.

Los resultados obtenidos confirman que la rentabilidad, el tamaño, el valor colateral de los activos y la protección fiscal diferente a la deuda son los factores que determinan el nivel de endeudamiento a largo plazo de las empresas peruanas.

Este trabajo constituye una primera aportación sobre los determinantes del nivel de endeudamiento de las empresas en el Perú. Existe una extensa literatura sobre los factores determinantes de la estructura de capital, pero es el primer trabajo que se realiza para el sector empresarial peruano.

La presente investigación examina la existencia de memoria de largo plazo por medio del cálculo del coeficiente de Hurst y Hurst ajustado, y del análisis de características de estructuras caóticas en la serie del mercado bursátil de Chile, específicamente a través del Índice de Precios Selectivo de Acciones.

Se desarrolló un breve análisis del mercado, según la metodología de Box y Jenkings. La validez de los resultados se realizó por medio de la prueba propuesta por Brock, Dechert y Scheinkman. En segundo lugar, se procedió a analizar la dinámica y patrones del índice y de su rendimiento, para observar si existía evidencia de memoria de largo plazo.

Los resultados demuestran la presencia de esta memoria en el mercado bursátil chileno, determinado a través del índice accionario en dos escalas, diaria y trimestral, lo que además corrobora resultados obtenidos por otros autores, confirmando el uso de la metodología de Rango Re-escaldo para la identificación y determinación de memoria de largo plazo en una serie temporal.

Este estudio permitirá a futuros investigadores realizar análisis similares en otros mercados, aportando un nuevo enfoque al analizar la memoria de la largo plazo y los factores que inciden en ella.

Exponente de Hurst, Índice bursátil, Mercados eficientes, Mercados fractales

Artículo de investigación

This research examined the existence of long-term memory by calculating the coefficient of Hurst and Hurst set, and the analysis of characteristics of chaotic structures in the series of stock market of Chile, specifically through the Selective Price Index Shares.

A brief analysis of the market was developed, according to Box and Jenkins methodology. The validity of the results was performed by means of the test proposed by Brock, Dechert and Scheinkman. Secondly, we proceeded to analyze the dynamics and patterns of the index and its performance, to see if there was evidence of long-term memory.

The results demonstrate the presence of long-term memory in the Chilean stock market, determined by stock index in two scales, daily and quarterly, which also corroborates results obtained by other authors, confirming the use of the methodology Range Re-scalded for the identification and determination of long-term memory in a time series.

This study will allow future researchers to perform similar analyzes in other markets, providing a new approach when analyzing the long-term memory and the factors that affect it.

The chapter describes the recent history of Sustainability Indices in three Latin American countries: Brazil, Mexico, and Chile. In these countries, local Stock Exchanges have been recently launching their own Sustainability Indices. This ongoing trend may indicate a particular way of addressing Socially Responsible Investment (SRI) in the region. The chapter relies on secondary data, mainly documents published by the Stock Exchanges themselves, and on some selected academic and practitioner oriented articles. All three countries present some common features. In all cases, local stock markets launched Sustainability Indices, and their composition has been publicly available from the beginning. Consequently, SRI is now developing in the region in a different way from that of developed markets. The chapter is based on secondary data only. Further research may involve interviews and surveys with different stakeholders (i.e., investors, quoted companies, public officials). The illustration of a different way of developing an SRI market may help public officials and investors from other countries, either in Latin America or elsewhere, who intend to promote SRI. There are few studies on SRI in Latin America, and comparative research between different countries in the region is still rare.

Managing the risks associated to world food production is an important challenge for governments. A range of factors, among them extreme weather events, has threatened food production in recent years. The purpose of this paper is to analyse the impact of extreme rainfall events on the food industry in Brazil, a prominent player in this industry.

The authors use the AR-GARCH-GPD hybrid methodology to identify whether extreme rainfall affects the stock price of food companies. To do so, the authors collected the daily closing price of the 16 food industry companies listed on the Brazilian stock exchange (B3), in January 2015.

The results indicate that these events have a significant impact on stock returns: on more than half of the days immediately following the heavy rain that fell between 28 February 2005 and 30 December 2014, returns were significantly low, leading to average daily losses of 1.97 per cent. These results point to the relevance of the need for instruments to hedge against weather risk, particularly in the food industry.

Given that extreme weather events have been occurring more and more frequently, financial literature has documented attempts at assessing the economic impacts of weather changes. There is little research, however, into assessing the impacts of these events at corporate level.

O gerenciamento de riscos associados à produção mundial de alimentos é um desafio importante para governantes. Diversos fatores, entre eles os eventos climáticos extremos, têm ameaçado a produção de alimentos nos últimos anos. Neste artigo nós analisamos o impacto de eventos de chuvas extremas na indústria de alimentos no Brasil, um dos maiores produtores mundiais.

Empregamos a metodologia híbrida AR-GARCH-GPD para verificar se chuvas extremas afetam o preço das ações das empresas de alimentos. Para isso, coletamos os preços de fechamento diário de 16 empresas do setor de alimentos listadas na Bolsa de Valores do Brasil [B]³, em janeiro de 2015.

Os resultados sugerem que esses eventos exercem impacto significante sobre o retorno das ações: em mais da metade dos dias imediatamente posteriores à chuva extrema ocorrida entre 28/02/2005 e 30/12/2014, os retornos foram significantemente baixos, levando a perdas médias diárias próximas de 1,97%. Esses resultados apontam para a relevância da necessidade de instrumentos para proteção contra riscos climáticos, particularmente na indústria de alimentos.

Tendo em vista que eventos climáticos extremos têm ocorrido com uma frequência cada vez maior, a literatura de finanças tem documentado tentativas de avaliar os impactos econômicos das mudanças climáticas. No entanto, nota-se a carência de pesquisas para avaliar os impactos desses eventos no nível das empresas.

Corporate social responsibility (CSR) and corporate sustainability have gained prominence in the major capital markets. In Brazil, the São Paulo Stock Exchange (BM&FBovespa) has created the Corporate Sustainability Index (ISE) and the Carbon Efficient Index (ICO2), responsible for indicating the performance of sustainable companies. Therefore, this study proposes to examine and compare the stock returns of the sustainability index member companies with the returns of companies out of these indexes. In this methodology we selected the two principal negotiability indexes of that market (IBOV and IBrX50), which are indexes that meet the most traded stocks of BM&FBovespa, and calculated the average daily returns of the four indexes in order to make performance comparisons over the period 2005–2014, based on nonparametric statistical tests. Our findings indicate that the average returns of sustainability indexes were higher, but these differences were not statistically significant, confirming previous evidence. Additionally, by means of a cointegration test, we found that the indexes are cointegrated in the long term. These findings are limited to the analyzed emerging market and are also subject to the limitations of the estimated models. Thus, we can infer that presence in the sustainability indexes does not indicate statistically significant higher returns, which means that companies with sustainable practices in Brazil are not only concerned with economic performance, but also with social, cultural, and environmental issues. The main findings are aligned with the concept of triple bottom line, even in the case of an emerging market.

Companies are wishing to incorporate good corporate governance practices into their organization in order to be more attractive to investors, knowing whether this influences their financial indicators and profitability or not. This, in fact, is beneficial for investors so they know that a company who applies the principles of corporate governance (CG) presents best management practices and transparent information, safeguarding the interests of all its stakeholders, which helps their investment decision; reducing market uncertainty, making it more efficient and liquid. The research focuses on the companies listed in the Stock Exchange of Lima that had implemented CG strategies in their organizations.

The purpose of this paper is to analyse the adaptive market efficiency in the price–volume (P–V) relationship of the stocks listed in the Mexican Stock Exchange. The period under study goes from 1982 to 2015. In order to detect causality and, thus, determine adaptive efficiency in the market, one linear and two non-linear tests are applied. There are few papers in the literature that study the P–V relationship in Latin American markets; as such, this paper may be of interest and importance to financial academics and practitioners alike.

The Diks and Panchenko (DP) non-parametric Granger causality and the Brooks and Hinich (BH) cross-bicorrelation tests are applied.

Derived from the DP test, the findings show that there exists bi-directional non-linear Granger causality in 25.71 per cent of the firms studied, compared to 8 per cent when applying the linear Granger causality test. Therefore, there is evidence of weak-form efficiency in the market. From the BH test, evidence is shown of the adaptive market efficiency, since 71.42 per cent of firms exhibited some form of non-linear dependence in certain periods of time. With these results, the information process should be better studied for a greater comprehension of regulatory policies in the market and better decision-making tools for the investors.

This paper complements studies on the P–V relationship and efficiency in a Latin American market.

Este documento analiza la eficiencia adaptativa del mercado para la relación precio-volumen de las empresas que cotizan en la Bolsa Mexicana de Valores. El periodo bajo estudio es de 1982 a 2015. Para detectar causalidad y determinar la eficiencia adaptativa del mercado, se aplicó una prueba lineal y dos no-lineales. Existen pocos documentos en la literatura que estudien la relación precio-volumen en mercados latinoamericanos. Como tal, este documento puede ser de interés e importancia tanto para académicos como para profesionales de las finanzas.

Se aplicó la prueba de causalidad no-paramétrica de Diks y Panchenko y la prueba de bicorrelación cruzada de Brooks y Hinich.

Derivado de la prueba DP, los hallazgos muestran que existe causalidad no-lineal bidireccional en 25.71% de las empresas bajo estudio, comparado a un 8% cuando se aplica la prueba de causalidad lineal de Granger. Por lo tanto, existe evidencia de eficiencia en forma débil del mercado. De la pruba BH, se muestra evidencia de eficiencia adaptativa del mercado, dado que el 71.42% de las empresas exhibieron alguna forma de dependencia no-lineal en ciertos periodos de tiempo. Con estos resultados, el proceso de información debe ser mejor estudiado para una mayor comprensión de las políticas regulatorias del mercado y mejores herramientas para la toma de decisiones por los inversionistas.

Este documento complementa los estudios sobre la relación precio-volumen y la eficiencia en un mercado latinoamericano.