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Open Access
Article
Publication date: 13 March 2018

Teik-Kheong Tan and Merouane Lakehal-Ayat

The impact of volatility crush can be devastating to an option buyer and results in a substantial capital loss, even with a directionally correct strategy. As a result, most…

2005

Abstract

Purpose

The impact of volatility crush can be devastating to an option buyer and results in a substantial capital loss, even with a directionally correct strategy. As a result, most volatility plays are for option sellers, but the profit they can achieve is limited and the sellers carry unlimited risk. This paper aims to demonstrate the dynamics of implied volatility (IV) as being influenced by effects of persistence, leverage, market sentiment and liquidity. From the exploratory factor analysis (EFA), they extract four constructs and the results from the confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) indicated a good model fit for the constructs.

Design/methodology/approach

This section describes the methodology used for conducting the study. This includes the study area, study approach, sources of data, sampling technique and the method of data analysis.

Findings

Although there is extensive literature on methods for estimating IV dynamics during earnings announcement, few researchers have looked at the impact of expected market maker move, IV differential and IV Rank on the IV path after the earnings announcement. One reason for this research gap is because of the recent introduction of weekly options for equities by the Chicago Board of Options Exchange (CBOE) back in late 2010. Even then, the CBOE only released weekly options four individual equities – Bank of America (BAC.N), Apple (AAPL.O), Citigroup (C.N) and US-listed shares of BP (BP.L) (BP.N). The introduction of weekly options provided more trading flexibility and precision timing from shorter durations. This automatically expanded expiration choices, which in turned offered greater access and flexibility from the perspective of trading volatility during earnings announcement. This study has demonstrated the impact of including market sentiment and liquidity into the forecasting model for IV during earnings. This understanding in turn helps traders to formulate strategies that can circumvent the undefined risk associated with trading options strategies such as writing strangles.

Research limitations/implications

The first limitation of the study is that the firms included in the study are relatively large, and the results of the study can therefore not be generalized to medium sized and small firms. The second limitation lies in the current sample size, which in many cases was not enough to be able to draw reliable conclusions on. Scaling the sample size up is only a function of time and effort. This is easily overcome and should not be a limitation in the future. The third limitation concerns the measurement of the variables. Under the assumption of a normal distribution of returns (i.e. stock prices follow a random walk process), which means that the distribution of returns is symmetrical, one can estimate the probabilities of potential gains or losses associated with each amount. This means the standard deviation of securities returns, which is called historical volatility and is usually calculated as a moving average, can be used as a risk indicator. The prices used for the calculations are usually the closing prices, but Parkinson (1980) suggests that the day’s high and low prices would provide a better estimate of real volatility. One can also refine the analysis with high-frequency data. Such data enable the avoidance of the bias stemming from the use of closing (or opening) prices, but they have only been available for a relatively short time. The length of the observation period is another topic that is still under debate. There are no criteria that enable one to conclude that volatility calculated in relation to mean returns over 20 trading days (or one month) and then annualized is any more or less representative than volatility calculated over 130 trading days (or six months) and then annualized, or even than volatility measured directly over 260 trading days (one year). Nonetheless, the guidelines adopted in this study represent the best practices of researchers thus far.

Practical implications

This study has indicated that an earnings announcement can provide a volatility mispricing opportunity to allow an investor to profit from a sudden, sharp drop in IV. More specifically, the methodology developed by Tan and Bing is now well supported both empirically and theoretically in terms of qualifying opportunities that can be profitable because of the volatility crush. Conventionally, the option strategy of shorting strangles carries unlimited theoretical risk; however, the methodology has demonstrated that this risk can be substantially reduced if followed judiciously. This profitable strategy relies on a set of qualifying parameters including liquidity, premium collection, volatility differential, expected market move and market sentiment. Building upon this framework, the understanding of the effects of persistence and leverage resulted in further reducing the risk associated with trading options during earnings announcements. As a guideline, the sentiment and liquidity variables help to qualify a trade and the effects of persistence and leverage help to close the qualified trade.

Social implications

The authors find a positive association between the effects of market sentiment, liquidity, persistence and leverage in the dynamics of IV during earnings announcement. These findings substantiate further the four factors that influence IV dynamics during earnings announcement and conclude that just looking at persistence and leverage alone will not generate profitable trading opportunities.

Originality/value

The impact of volatility crush can be devastating to the option buyer with substantial capital loss, even for a directionally correct strategy. As a result, most volatility plays are for option sellers; however, the profit is limited and the sellers carry unlimited risk. The authors demonstrate the dynamics of IV as being influenced by effects of persistence, leverage, market sentiment and liquidity. From the EFA, they extracted four constructs and the results from the CFA indicated a good model fit for the constructs. Using EFA, CFA and Bayesian analysis, how this model can help investors formulate the right strategy to achieve the best risk/reward mix is demonstrated. Using Bayesian estimation and IV differential to proxy for differences of opinion about term structures in option pricing, the authors find a positive association among the effects of market sentiment, liquidity, persistence and leverage in the dynamics of IV during earnings announcement.

Details

PSU Research Review, vol. 2 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2399-1747

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 19 August 2022

Muneera Muftah

How closely does the translation match the meaning of the reference has always been a key aspect of any machine translation (MT) service. Therefore, the primary goal of this…

3937

Abstract

Purpose

How closely does the translation match the meaning of the reference has always been a key aspect of any machine translation (MT) service. Therefore, the primary goal of this research is to assess and compare translation adequacy in machine vs human translation (HT) from Arabic to English. The study looks into whether the MT product is adequate and more reliable than the HT. It also seeks to determine whether MT poses a real threat to professional Arabic–English translators.

Design/methodology/approach

Six different texts were chosen and translated from Arabic to English by two nonexpert undergraduate translation students as well as MT services, including Google Translate and Babylon Translation. The first system is free, whereas the second system is a fee-based service. Additionally, two expert translators developed a reference translation (RT) against which human and machine translations were compared and analyzed. Furthermore, the Sketch Engine software was utilized to examine the translations to determine if there is a significant difference between human and machine translations against the RT.

Findings

The findings indicated that when compared to the RT, there was no statistically significant difference between human and machine translations and that MTs were adequate translations. The human–machine relationship is mutually beneficial. However, MT will never be able to completely automated; rather, it will benefit rather than endanger humans. A translator who knows how to use MT will have an opportunity over those who are unfamiliar with the most up-to-date translation technology. As MTs improve, human translators may no longer be accurate translators, but rather editors and editing materials previously translated by machines.

Practical implications

The findings of this study provide valuable and practical implications for research in the field of MTs and for anyone interested in conducting MT research.

Originality/value

In general, this study is significant as it is a serious attempt at getting a better understanding of the efficiency of MT vs HT in translating the Arabic–English texts, and it will be beneficial for translators, students, educators as well as scholars in the field of translation.

Details

PSU Research Review, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2399-1747

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 7 December 2017

Xiao-jun Wang, Jian-yun Zhang, Shamsuddin Shahid, Lang Yu, Chen Xie, Bing-xuan Wang and Xu Zhang

The purpose of this paper is to develop a statistical-based model to forecast future domestic water demand in the context of climate change, population growth and technological…

2249

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to develop a statistical-based model to forecast future domestic water demand in the context of climate change, population growth and technological development in Yellow River.

Design/methodology/approach

The model is developed through the analysis of the effects of climate variables and population on domestic water use in eight sub-basins of the Yellow River. The model is then used to forecast water demand under different environment change scenarios.

Findings

The model projected an increase in domestic water demand in the Yellow River basin in the range of 67.85 × 108 to 62.20 × 108 m3 in year 2020 and between 73.32 × 108 and 89.27 × 108 m3 in year 2030. The general circulation model Beijing Normal University-Earth System Model (BNU-ESM) predicted the highest increase in water demand in both 2020 and 2030, while Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques Climate Model v.5 (CNRM-CM5) and Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate- Earth System (MIROC-ESM) projected the lowest increase in demand in 2020 and 2030, respectively. The fastest growth in water demand is found in the region where water demand is already very high, which may cause serious water shortage and conflicts among water users.

Originality/value

The simple regression-based domestic water demand model proposed in the study can be used for rapid evaluation of possible changes in domestic water demand due to environmental changes to aid in adaptation and mitigation planning.

Details

International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management, vol. 10 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1756-8692

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 5 July 2022

Tanzina Hossain and Pallabi Siddiqua

Determining the impact of behavioral influences on the stock market has significant implications for investment analysis and portfolio management. Behavioral biases are parameters…

5266

Abstract

Purpose

Determining the impact of behavioral influences on the stock market has significant implications for investment analysis and portfolio management. Behavioral biases are parameters that need to be considered in investment decision-making. The purpose of this study is to inform Bangladeshi investors about behavioral biases that they may encounter when making investment decisions in the prevailing frontier environment.

Design/methodology/approach

Through the chi-square test, one-way ANOVA, paired-samples t-test and descriptive analysis based on the facts collected from 281 respondents of the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE), the study has found that individual investors of Bangladesh often make investment decisions emotionally rather than based on theories.

Findings

The result shows that risk aversion and risk perception are the two most influential emotional dimensions that impact investors' decisions. The findings are consistent with the other researchers and highlight the fact that investors hardly act according to the norms recommended in the financial theories.

Research limitations/implications

The findings are grounded on a small portion of investors at DSE on some particular days, which is not sufficient to study individual investors' entire complex decision-making behavior from various angles. Many respondents were reluctant and even confused to disclose their behavioral aspects. These, along with biased and careless answers, may impede the identification of the actual scenario of the behavioral responses in decision-making that demand further study.

Originality/value

The novelty of this study is unique in that it examined investors of the DSE, who are considered to be a representative in a frontier market like Bangladesh. Since this market is not very resilient, small investors need to be aware of the biases of behavioral factors to survive.

Details

PSU Research Review, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2399-1747

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 17 November 2022

Afrodite Malliari, Ilias Nitsos, Sofia Zapounidou and Stavros Doropoulos

This paper aims to attempt to provide an overview of the copyright legal framework for audiovisual resources in Europe and Greece, how Audiovisual (AV) content is currently…

1031

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to attempt to provide an overview of the copyright legal framework for audiovisual resources in Europe and Greece, how Audiovisual (AV) content is currently licensed by Greek providers and how licenses or copyright exceptions enable its reuse. The motivation for this work was the development of an aggregation service for audiovisual resources in Greece, the Open AudioVisual Archives (OAVA) platform.

Design/methodology/approach

Copyright licenses and exceptions in the European Union and in Greek Legislation have been thoroughly reviewed along with the reuse of content, based on the terms of Fair Use, Rights Statements and Creative Commons. Licensing issues for the most well-known aggregation services, such as Europeana, Digital Public Library of America, Trove, Digital New Zealand and the National Digital Library of India, have also been studied and considered. Audiovisual content providers in Greece have been recorded, and their licensing preferences have been analyzed. Pearson’s chi-square test was applied to test the relationship between the provider’s type, resources’ genre and licenses used.

Findings

Despite the abundance of copyright legislation in the European Union and in Greece, audiovisual content providers in Greece seem to ignore it or find it difficult to choose the right license. More than half of them choose to publish their resources on popular audiovisual platforms using the default licensing option provided. Creative Commons licenses are preferred for audiovisual content that falls into the following categories: open courses (almost exclusively) and interviews and digital collection/research projects (about half of the content).

Originality/value

This paper examines audiovisual content aggregation, in the EU and Greece, from a legal point of view. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, it is the first attempt to record and analyze the licensing preferences of Greek AV content providers.

Details

Digital Library Perspectives, vol. 39 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2059-5816

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 7 July 2022

Alexei Koveshnikov, Heidi Wechtler, Miriam Moeller and Cecile Dejoux

Using social influence theory, this study examines the relationship between self-initiated expatriates' (SIE) political skill, as a measure of their social effectiveness, and…

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Abstract

Purpose

Using social influence theory, this study examines the relationship between self-initiated expatriates' (SIE) political skill, as a measure of their social effectiveness, and cross-cultural adjustment (CCA). It also tests whether the host employer's psychological contract (PC) fulfillment mediates this relationship.

Design/methodology/approach

Partial least square structural equation modeling (covariance-based SEM) technique is employed to analyze a sample of 209 SIEs.

Findings

The study finds SIEs' political skill positively and significantly associated with SIEs' work-related adjustment. The relationship with interactional adjustment is only marginally significant. It also finds that SIEs' PC fulfillment mediates the relationship between SIEs' political skill and work-related adjustment. The mediation is marginally significant for the relationship between SIEs' political skill and general living adjustment.

Originality/value

The study adds to the literature on expatriates' skills and CCA by theorizing and testing the hitherto unexplored role of SIEs' political skill in their work and non-work CCA. It also theorizes and examines the host employer's PC fulfillment as a mediating mechanism, through which SIEs' political skill facilitates their CCA. Finally, it advances the literature on political skill by testing the construct's application in the cross-cultural and non-work domain.

Details

Journal of Global Mobility: The Home of Expatriate Management Research, vol. 10 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2049-8799

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 8 May 2023

Junfeng Wang and Vera Butkouskaya

This study constructs the influence mechanism model of sustainable marketing activities (SMAs), event image, commemorative product perceived value and tourists’ behavioral…

3010

Abstract

Purpose

This study constructs the influence mechanism model of sustainable marketing activities (SMAs), event image, commemorative product perceived value and tourists’ behavioral intentions (TBIs) in the sports tourism context of the Beijing Winter Olympic Games. Additionally, the article discusses the role of event image and product perceived value in enhancing the SMAs’ effect on TBIs.

Design/methodology/approach

The research analyzed 315 valid questionnaires from tourists in the Chinese market by structural equation modeling.

Findings

The results indicate that SMAs positively impact sports tourism event image, tourists’ perceived commemorative product value and TBIs. Meanwhile, event image and product perceived value mediate the SMAs and TBIs relationship.

Research limitations/implications

Considering SMAs as essential for sustainable development, this paper contributes to the strategic management discipline. Additionally, the research expands the analysis of event image and product perceived value in the brand theory and customer behavior research.

Practical implications

The article outlines the principal value of SMAs implementation in enhancing behavioral intentions. It also reveals that a favorable event image and good perceived value can enhance SMAs’ effectiveness toward positively influencing TBIs, especially purchase intentions. It provides a new vision for nonprofit organizations to prioritize SMAs’ implementation in marketing strategies.

Originality/value

It is pioneering work with a complex research framework for SMAs implementation in the sports tourism context.

Details

Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, vol. 28 no. 55
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2218-0648

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 15 December 2022

Muhammad Yazrin Yasin, Muhammad Azmi Bin Mohd Zain and Muhammad Haniff Bin Hassan

This paper discusses the urban management challenges in the Greater Kuala Lumpur area. Before examining Greater Kuala Lumpur's economic and social environment, we will look at the…

Abstract

This paper discusses the urban management challenges in the Greater Kuala Lumpur area. Before examining Greater Kuala Lumpur's economic and social environment, we will look at the factors that make it a competitive and fiscally sound entity. When considering urban development and redevelopment, we consider how proposed and ongoing projects, as well as plans, hierarchical links, and road networks, contributed to the increase. Because there is no urban growth boundary, land use change and rural encroachment, as well as environmental degradation and the impact of national economic projects on urban expansion, are both rapid and linear in the analysis. This paper also considers how to manage linear development that results in the creation of new suburbs. Finally, we propose strategies for achieving sustainable urban expansion and management by balancing the financial and governance capacities of Greater Kuala Lumpur local governments.

Details

Southeast Asia: A Multidisciplinary Journal, vol. 22 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1819-5091

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 12 April 2019

Iman Ghalehkhondabi, Ehsan Ardjmand, William A. Young and Gary R. Weckman

The purpose of this paper is to review the current literature in the field of tourism demand forecasting.

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to review the current literature in the field of tourism demand forecasting.

Design/methodology/approach

Published papers in the high quality journals are studied and categorized based their used forecasting method.

Findings

There is no forecasting method which can develop the best forecasts for all of the problems. Combined forecasting methods are providing better forecasts in comparison to the traditional forecasting methods.

Originality/value

This paper reviews the available literature from 2007 to 2017. There is not such a review available in the literature.

Details

Journal of Tourism Futures, vol. 5 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2055-5911

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 4 August 2021

Marewa Glover, Robin Shepherd, Kyro Selket and Saravana Kumar Paramanathen

A large increase in robberies of convenience stores in New Zealand (NZ) in 2016 and 2017 was anecdotally attributed to persistent and substantial increases in excise tax on…

1670

Abstract

Purpose

A large increase in robberies of convenience stores in New Zealand (NZ) in 2016 and 2017 was anecdotally attributed to persistent and substantial increases in excise tax on tobacco products. This study aims to explore the validity of that claim by examining the characteristics of the robberies through the lens of online news coverage.

Design/methodology/approach

Google, Bing and main online NZ news outlets were searched for news reports between 2009 and 2018 of tobacco-related store robberies. Content analysis was used to extract characteristics such as date of robbery, type of store, items targeted or stolen and demographic profile of offenders. The prevalence of reported robberies by socioeconomic level of the surrounding community was assessed using nearest primary school decile rating. Descriptive statistics and statistical analysis were used to discuss trends and key findings in the data.

Findings

Reports on 572 robberies were unevenly distributed across the years with a large increase in 2016 and 2017, followed by a substantial decrease in 2018. Local community convenience stores were primarily hit – more so in lower socioeconomic communities. Robberies occurred nationwide and disproportionately so during colder months in lower socioeconomic communities. Many robberies were aggravated resulting in serious injury to shopkeepers. Tobacco and cash were predominantly targeted.

Social implications

The large increase in robberies that occurred in 2016–2017 likely resulted from tax-driven tobacco price hikes combined with reduced duty-free tobacco coming into NZ with travellers. Installation of security in stores, news fatigue and other explanations are potential reasons for the 2018 decrease in reported robberies despite tobacco prices increasing. Frequent robberies of local stores, many including violence, should be a public health concern as destruction of community well-being can be a determinant of other health problems. The negative consequences for communities, particularly lower socioeconomic communities, need to be factored into the cost benefit analysis of raising the tax on tobacco.

Originality/value

This study provides much needed detail on the negative health and social consequences of tobacco-related store robberies.

Details

Safer Communities, vol. 20 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1757-8043

Keywords

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