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Berna Keskin, Richard Dunning and Craig Watkins

This paper aims to explore the impact of a recent earthquake activity on house prices and their spatial distribution in the Istanbul housing market.

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to explore the impact of a recent earthquake activity on house prices and their spatial distribution in the Istanbul housing market.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper uses a multi-level approach within an event study framework to model changes in the pattern of house prices in Istanbul. The model allows the isolation of the effects of earthquake risk and explores the differential impact in different submarkets in two study periods – one before (2007) and one after (2012) recent earthquake activity in the Van region, which although in Eastern Turkey served to alter the perceptions of risk through the wider geographic region.

Findings

The analysis shows that there are variations in the size of price discounts in submarkets resulting from the differential influence of a recent earthquake activity on perceived risk of damage. The model results show that the spatial impacts of these changes are not transmitted evenly across the study area. Rather it is clear that submarkets at the cheaper end of the market have proportionately larger negative impacts on real estate values.

Research limitations/implications

The robustness of the models would be enhanced by the addition of further spatial levels and larger data sets.

Practical implications

The methods introduced in this study can be used by real estate agents, valuers and insurance companies to help them more accurately assess the likely impacts of changes in the perceived risk of earthquake activity (or other environmental events such as flooding) on the formation of house prices in different market segments.

Social implications

The application of these methods is intended to inform a fairer approach to setting insurance premiums and a better basis for determining policy interventions and public investment designed to mitigate potential earthquake risk.

Originality/value

The paper represents an attempt to develop a novel extension of the standard use of hedonic models in event studies to investigate the impact of natural disasters on real estate values. The value of the approach is that it is able to better capture the granularity of the spatial effects of environmental events than the standard approach.

Details

Journal of European Real Estate Research, vol. 10 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-9269

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Article

Gülçin Pulat Gökmen, Yurdanur Dülgeroglu Yüksel, Fatma Erkök, Yasemin Alkiser and Berna Keskin

In Turkey, the process of squatterisation can best be traced to the increase in its urban population from 24 percent in 1950 to 59 percent in 2000. In the periods up to…

Abstract

In Turkey, the process of squatterisation can best be traced to the increase in its urban population from 24 percent in 1950 to 59 percent in 2000. In the periods up to the present, the prevention, improvement and renewal of squatter settlements were not achieved within the existing legal framework and planning structure; and their urban quality has been degraded.

The aim of this article is to discuss the upgrading of squatter settlements through a mitigation process considering the possibility of an earthquake in Istanbul. The target groups of this upgrading study are the squatter dwellers and their settlements.

In getting prepared for the predicted big Istanbul earthquake, the improvement of squatter housing is extremely important for the existing urban housing stock. With this aim, the undesirable consequences of a possible natural disaster in various squatter settlements in Istanbul were scrutinised. Also, earthquake-forecasting reports were analysed in conjunction with squatter maps to extract data for the purpose of upgrading squatter settlements through rehabilitation, reconstruction and reinforcement at the urban and architectural levels with amelioration of damage after an earthquake. In the article, a model is proposed which includes measures to transform squatter zones into healthy areas by means of simple reinforcement and contemporary solutions.

This article is based on a research project requested and sponsored by the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality during 2003-2004.

Details

Open House International, vol. 31 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0168-2601

Keywords

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Abstract

Details

Journal of European Real Estate Research, vol. 10 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-9269

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