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This paper aims to provide an elucidative and explanatory overview of decision-making theory that human resource management and development (HR) researchers and practitioners can use to explore the impact of heuristics and biases on organizational decisions, particularly within HR contexts.

This paper draws upon three theoretical resources anchored in decision-making research: the theory of bounded rationality, the heuristics and biases program, and cognitive-experiential self-theory (CEST). A selective narrative review approach was adopted to identify, translate, and contextualize research findings that provide immense applicability, connection, and significance to the field and study of HR.

The authors extract key insights from the theoretical resources surveyed and illustrate the linkages between HR and decision-making research, presenting a theoretical framework to guide future research endeavors.

Decades of decision-making research have been distilled into a digestible and accessible framework that offers both theoretical and practical implications.

Heuristics are mental shortcuts that facilitate quick decisions by simplifying complexity and reducing effort needed to solve problems. Heuristic strategies can yield favorable outcomes, especially amid time and information constraints. However, heuristics can also introduce systematic judgment errors known as biases. Biases are pervasive within organizational settings and can lead to disastrous decisions. This paper provides HR scholars and professionals with a balanced, nuanced, and integrative framework to better understand heuristics and biases and explore their organizational impact. To that end, a forward-looking and direction-setting research agenda is presented.

This survey explores the application of real options theory to the field of health economics. The integration of options theory offers a valuable framework to address these challenges, providing insights into healthcare investments, policy analysis and patient care pathways.

This research employs the real options theory, a financial concept, to delve into health economics challenges. Through a systematic approach, three distinct models rooted in this theory are crafted and analyzed. Firstly, the study examines the value of investing in emerging health technology, factoring in future advantages, associated costs and unpredictability. The second model is patient-centric, evaluating the choice between immediate treatment switch and waiting for more clarity, while also weighing the associated risks. Lastly, the research assesses pandemic-related government policies, emphasizing the importance of delaying decisions in the face of uncertainties, thereby promoting data-driven policymaking.

Three different real options models are presented in this study to illustrate their applicability and value in aiding decision-makers. (1) The first evaluates investments in new technology, analyzing future benefits, discount rates and benefit volatility to determine investment value. (2) In the second model, a patient has the option of switching treatments now or waiting for more information before optimally switching treatments. However, waiting has its risks, such as disease progression. By modeling the potential benefits and risks of both options, and factoring in the time value, this model aids doctors and patients in making informed decisions based on a quantified assessment of potential outcomes. (3) The third model concerns pandemic policy: governments can end or prolong lockdowns. While awaiting more data on the virus might lead to economic and societal strain, the model emphasizes the economic value of deferring decisions under uncertainty.

This research provides a quantified perspective on various decisions in healthcare, from investments in new technology to treatment choices for patients to government decisions regarding pandemics. By applying real options theory, stakeholders can make more evidence-driven decisions.

Decisions about patient care pathways and pandemic policies have direct societal implications. For instance, choices regarding the prolongation or ending of lockdowns can lead to economic and societal strain.

The originality of this study lies in its application of real options theory, a concept from finance, to the realm of health economics, offering novel insights and analytical tools for decision-makers in the healthcare sector.

This study aims to capture how the association between a multichannel relational communication strategy (MRCS) and customer performance is contingent upon such customer performance (low- versus high-performance customers) and to reconcile past contradictory results in this marketing-related topic. To this end, the authors propose and validate the method of quantile regression as an unconventional, yet effective, means to proceed to that reconciliation.

This study collected data from 4,934 customers of a private pension fund firm and accounted for both firm- and customer-initiated relational communication channels (RCCs) and for customer lifetime value (CLV). This study estimated a generalized linear model and then a quantile regression model was used to account for customer performance heterogeneity.

This study finds that specific RCCs present different levels of association with performance for low- versus high-performance customers, where outcome customer performance is the dependent variable. For example, the relation between firm-initiated communication (FIC) and performance is stronger for low-CLV customers, whereas the relation between customer-initiated communication (CIC) and performance is increasingly stronger for high-CLV customers but not for low-CLV ones. This study also finds that combining different forms of FIC can result in a negative association with customer performance, especially for low-CLV customers.

The authors tested the conceptual model in one single firm in the specific context of financial services and with cross-sectional data, so there should be caution when extrapolating this study’s findings.

This study offers nuanced and precise managerial insights on recommended resource allocation along with relational communication efforts, showing how managers can benefit from adopting a differentiated-customer performance approach when designing their MRCS.

This study provides an overview of the state of the art of MRCS, proposes a contingency analysis of the relationship between MRCS and performance based on customer performance heterogeneity and suggests the quantile method to perform such analysis and help reconcile past contradictory findings. This study shows how the association between RCCs and CLV varies across the conditional quantiles of the distribution of customer performance. This study also addresses a recent call for a more holistic perspective on the relationships between independent and dependent variables.

The aim of this paper is to provide a narrative review of previous research on tourism demand modelling and forecasting and potential future developments.

A narrative approach is taken in this review of the current body of knowledge.

Significant methodological advancements in tourism demand modelling and forecasting over the past two decades are identified.

The distinct characteristics of the various methods applied in the field are summarised and a research agenda for future investigations is proposed.

本文旨在对先前关于旅游需求建模和预测的研究进行叙述性回顾并对未来潜在发展进行展望。

本文采用叙述性回顾方法对当前知识体系进行了评论。

本文确认了过去二十年旅游需求建模和预测方法论方面的重要进展。

本文总结了该领域应用的各种方法的独特特征, 并对未来研究提出了建议。

El objetivo de este documento es ofrecer una revisión narrativa de la investigación previa sobre modelización y previsión de la demanda turística y los posibles desarrollos futuros.

En esta revisión del marco actual de conocimientos sobre modelización y previsión de la demanda turística y los posibles desarrollos futuros,se adopta un enfoque narrativo.

Se identifican avances metodológicos significativos en la modelización y previsión de la demanda turística en las dos últimas décadas.

Se resumen las características propias de los diversos métodos aplicados en este campo y se propone una agenda de investigación para futuros trabajos.

This paper aims to propose a new method to derive custom dynamic cyber risk metrics based on the well-known Goal, Question, Metric (GQM) approach. A framework that complements it and makes it much easier to use has been proposed too. Both, the method and the framework, have been validated within two challenging application domains: continuous risk assessment within a smart farm and risk-based adaptive security to reconfigure a Web application firewall.

The authors have identified a problem and provided motivation. They have developed their theory and engineered a new method and a framework to complement it. They have demonstrated the proposed method and framework work, validating them in two real use cases.

The GQM method, often applied within the software quality field, is a good basis for proposing a method to define new tailored cyber risk metrics that meet the requirements of current application domains. A comprehensive framework that formalises possible goals and questions translated to potential measurements can greatly facilitate the use of this method.

The proposed method enables the application of the GQM approach to cyber risk measurement. The proposed framework allows new cyber risk metrics to be inferred by choosing between suggested goals and questions and measuring the relevant elements of probability and impact. The authors’ approach demonstrates to be generic and flexible enough to allow very different organisations with heterogeneous requirements to derive tailored metrics useful for their particular risk management processes.

Allocation of the marketing budget has become increasingly challenging due to the diverse channel exposure to customers. This study aims to enhance global marketing knowledge by introducing an ensemble attribution model to optimize marketing budget allocation for online marketing channels. As empirical research, this study demonstrates the supremacy of the ensemble model over standalone models.

The transactional data set for car insurance from an Indian insurance aggregator is used in this empirical study. The data set contains information from more than three million platform visitors. A robust ensemble model is created by combining results from two probabilistic models, namely, the Markov chain model and the Shapley value. These results are compared and validated with heuristic models. Also, the performances of online marketing channels and attribution models are evaluated based on the devices used (i.e. desktop vs mobile).

Channel importance charts for desktop and mobile devices are analyzed to understand the top contributing online marketing channels. Customer relationship management-emailers and Google cost per click a paid advertising is identified as the top two marketing channels for desktop and mobile channels. The research reveals that ensemble model accuracy is better than the standalone model, that is, the Markov chain model and the Shapley value.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, the current research is the first of its kind to introduce ensemble modeling for solving attribution problems in online marketing. A comparison with heuristic models using different devices (desktop and mobile) offers insights into the results with heuristic models.

This study aims to explore and empirically test variables influencing material delivery schedule inaccuracies?

A mixed-method case approach is applied. Explanatory variables are identified from the literature and explored in a qualitative analysis at an automotive original equipment manufacturer. Using logistic regression and random forest classification models, quantitative data (historical schedule transactions and internal data) enables the testing of the predictive difference of variables under various planning horizons and inaccuracy levels.

The effects on delivery schedule inaccuracies are contingent on a decoupling point, and a variable may have a combined amplifying (complexity generating) and stabilizing (complexity absorbing) moderating effect. Product complexity variables are significant regardless of the time horizon, and the item’s order life cycle is a significant variable with predictive differences that vary. Decoupling management is identified as a mechanism for generating complexity absorption capabilities contributing to delivery schedule accuracy.

The findings provide guidelines for exploring and finding patterns in specific variables to improve material delivery schedule inaccuracies and input into predictive forecasting models.

The findings contribute to explaining material delivery schedule variations, identifying potential root causes and moderators, empirically testing and validating effects and conceptualizing features that cause and moderate inaccuracies in relation to decoupling management and complexity theory literature?

The Purpose of the study was to investigate the construct validity and internal consistency of the LaMI among staff in the context of elderly care in Sweden.

Questionnaire data from a longitudinal study of staff working in elderly care were used. Data were collected using the Leadership and Management Inventory. First data collection was for explorative factor analysis (n = 1,149), and the second collection, one year later, was for confirmatory factor analysis (n = 1,061).

The explorative factor analysis resulted in a two-factor solution that explained 70.2% of the total variance. Different models were tested in the confirmatory factor analysis. The final model, a two-factor solution where three items were omitted, showed acceptable results.

The instrument measures both leadership and management performance and can be used to continually measure managers’ performances as perceived by staff to identify areas for development.

The aim of this study is to empirically investigate the impact of marketing analytics capability on business performance from the perspective of RBV theory.

This study used a survey method to gather information from 225 food processing SMEs registered with the Ghana Enterprise Agency (GEA) in Ghana’s eastern region. A structural equation modeling (SEM) path analysis was used to assess the impact of marketing analytics capability (MAC) on the performance of SMEs.

The results of the study show that MAC significantly and positively affect the financial performance (FP), customer performance (CF), internal business process performance (IBPP) and learning and growth performance (LGP) of Ghanaian SMEs. The findings of this study also illustrated the significance of MAC determinants, including marketing analytics skills (MAS), data resource management (DRM) and data processing capabilities (DPC), in achieving SME success in Ghana.

The research’s conclusions give RBV theory strong credence. The results of this study also provide credence to previous research finding that SMEs should view MAC and its determinants (i.e. DRM, DPC, MAS) as a crucial strategic capability to improve their performance (i.e. FP, CF, IBPP, LGP). With regard to its contribution, this study broadens the body of knowledge on MAC and SME performance, particularly in the context of an emerging economy.

This study aims to develop the alleviating bullwhip effects framework (ABEF) replenishment rules, and bullwhip, inventory fluctuations and customer service fulfilment rates were examined. In addition, automated smoothing and replenishment rules can alleviate supply chain bullwhip effects. This study aims to understand the current artificial intelligence (AI) implementation practice in alleviating bullwhip effects in supply chain management. This study aimed to develop a system for writing reviews using a systematic approach.

The methodology for the present study consists of three parts: Part 1 deals with the systematic review process. In Part 2, the study applies social network analysis (SNA) to the fourth phase of the systematic review process. In Part 3, the author discusses developing research clusters to analyse the research state more granularly. Systematic literature reviews synthesize scientific evidence through repeatable, transparent and rigorous procedures. By using this approach, you can better interpret and understand the data. The author used two databases (EBSCO and World of Science) for unbiased analysis. In addition, systematic reviews follow preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses.

The study uses UCINET6 software to analyse the data. The study found that specific topics received high centrality (more attention) from scholars when it came to the study topic. Contrary to this, others experienced low centrality scores when using NETDRAW visualization graphs and dynamic capability clusters. Comprehensive analyses are used for the study’s comparison of clusters.

This study used a journal publication as the only source of information. Peer-reviewed journal papers were eliminated for their lack of rigorousness in evaluating the state of practice. This paper discusses the bullwhip effect of digital technology on supply chain management. Considering the increasing use of “AI” in their publications, other publications dealing with sensor integration could also have been excluded. To discuss the top five and bottom five topics, the author used magazines and tables.

The study explores the practical implications of smoothing the bullwhip effect through AI systems, collaboration, leadership and digital skills. Artificial intelligence is rapidly becoming a preferred tool in the supply chain, so management must understand the opportunities and challenges associated with its implementation. Furthermore, managers should consider how AI can influence supply chain collaboration concerning trust and forecasting to smooth the bullwhip effect.

Digital leadership and addressing the digital skills gap are also essential for the success of AI systems. According to the framework, it is necessary to balance AI performance and accountability. As a result of the framework and structured management approach, the author can examine the implications of AI along the supply chain.

The study uses a systematic literature review based on SNA to analyse how AI can alleviate the bullwhip effects of supply chain disruption and identify the focused and the most important AI topics related to the bullwhip phenomena. SNA uses qualitative and quantitative methodologies to identify research trends, strengths, gaps and future directions for research. Salient topics for reviewing papers were identified. Centrality metrics were used to analyse the contemporary topic’s importance, including degree, betweenness and eigenvector centrality. ABEF is presented in the study.