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We investigate the Bayesian approach to model comparison within a two-country framework with nominal rigidities using the workhorse New Keynesian open-economy model of Martínez-García and Wynne (2010). We discuss the trade-offs that monetary policy – characterized by a Taylor-type rule – faces in an interconnected world, with perfectly flexible exchange rates. We then use posterior model probabilities to evaluate the weight of evidence in support of such a model when estimated against more parsimonious specifications that either abstract from monetary frictions or assume autarky by means of controlled experiments that employ simulated data. We argue that Bayesian model comparison with posterior odds is sensitive to sample size and the choice of observable variables for estimation. We show that posterior model probabilities strongly penalize overfitting, which can lead us to favor a less parameterized model against the true data-generating process when the two become arbitrarily close to each other. We also illustrate that the spillovers from monetary policy across countries have an added confounding effect.

Within spatial econometrics a whole family of different spatial specifications has been developed, with associated estimators and tests. This lead to issues of model comparison and model choice, measuring the relative merits of alternative specifications and then using appropriate criteria to choose the “best” model or relative model probabilities. Bayesian theory provides a comprehensive and coherent framework for such model choice, including both nested and non-nested models within the choice set. The paper reviews the potential application of this Bayesian theory to spatial econometric models, examining the conditions and assumptions under which application is possible. Problems of prior distributions are outlined, and Bayes factors and marginal likelihoods are derived for a particular subset of spatial econometric specifications. These are then applied to two well-known spatial data-sets to illustrate the methods. Future possibilities, and comparisons with other approaches to both Bayesian and non-Bayesian model choice are discussed.

This paper aims to present a novel scheme of multiple vanishing points (VPs) estimation and corresponding lanes identification.

The scheme proposed here includes two main stages: VPs estimation and lane identification. VPs estimation based on vanishing direction hypothesis and Bayesian posterior probability estimation in the image Hough space is a foremost contribution, and then VPs are estimated through an optimal objective function. In lane identification stage, the selected linear samples supervised by estimated VPs are clustered based on the gradient direction of linear features to separate lanes, and finally all the lanes are identified through an identification function.

The scheme and algorithms are tested on real data sets collected from an intelligent vehicle. It is more efficient and more accurate than recent similar methods for structured road, and especially multiple VPs identification and estimation of branch road can be achieved and lanes of branch road can be identified for complex scenarios based on Bayesian posterior probability verification framework. Experimental results demonstrate VPs, and lanes are practical for challenging structured and semi-structured complex road scenarios.

A Bayesian posterior probability verification framework is proposed to estimate multiple VPs and corresponding lanes for road scene understanding of structured or semi-structured road monocular images on intelligent vehicles.

The purpose of this paper is to present an inductive methodology, which supports ranking of entities. Methodology is based on Bayesian latent variable measurement modeling and makes use of assessment across composite indicators to assess internal and external model validity (uncertainty is used in lieu of validity). Proposed methodology is generic and it is demonstrated on a well‐known data set, related to the relative position of a country in a “doing business.”

The methodology is demonstrated using data from the World Banks' “Doing Business 2008” project. A Bayesian latent variable measurement model is developed and both internal and external model uncertainties are considered.

The methodology enables the quantification of model structure uncertainty through comparisons among competing models, nested or non‐nested using both an information theoretic approach and a Bayesian approach. Furthermore, it estimates the degree of uncertainty in the rankings of alternatives.

Analyses are restricted to first‐order Bayesian measurement models.

Overall, the presented methodology contributes to a better understanding of ranking efforts providing a useful tool for those who publish rankings to gain greater insights into the nature of the distinctions they disseminate.

The purpose of this paper is to discuss the characteristics of several stochastic simulation methods applied in computation issue of structure health monitoring (SHM).

On the basis of the previous studies, this research focusses on four promising methods: transitional Markov chain Monte Carlo (TMCMC), slice sampling, slice-Metropolis-Hasting (M-H), and TMCMC-slice algorithm. The slice-M-H is the improved slice sampling algorithm, and the TMCMC-slice is the improved TMCMC algorithm. The performances of the parameters samples generated by these four algorithms are evaluated using two examples: one is the numerical example of a cantilever plate; another is the plate experiment simulating one part of the mechanical structure.

Both the numerical example and experiment show that, identification accuracy of slice-M-H is higher than that of slice sampling; and the identification accuracy of TMCMC-slice is higher than that of TMCMC. In general, the identification accuracy of the methods based on slice (slice sampling and slice-M-H) is higher than that of the methods based on TMCMC (TMCMC and TMCMC-slice).

The stochastic simulation methods evaluated in this paper are mainly two categories of representative methods: one introduces the intermediate probability density functions, and another one is the auxiliary variable approach. This paper provides important references about the stochastic simulation methods to solve the ill-conditioned computation issue, which is commonly encountered in SHM.

Our paper discusses simulation-based Bayesian inference using information from previous draws to build the proposals. The aim is to produce samplers that are easy to implement, that explore the target distribution effectively, and that are computationally efficient and mix well.

The latest financial crisis has stressed the need of understanding the world financial system as a network of interconnected institutions, where financial linkages play a fundamental role in the spread of systemic risks. In this paper we propose to enrich the topological perspective of network models with a more structured statistical framework, that of Bayesian Gaussian graphical models. From a statistical viewpoint, we propose a new class of hierarchical Bayesian graphical models that can split correlations between institutions into country specific and idiosyncratic ones, in a way that parallels the decomposition of returns in the well-known Capital Asset Pricing Model. From a financial economics viewpoint, we suggest a way to model systemic risk that can explicitly take into account frictions between different financial markets, particularly suited to study the ongoing banking union process in Europe. From a computational viewpoint, we develop a novel Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm based on Bayes factor thresholding.

This study aims to examine individuals' tendency to strictly follow their own signal while ignoring predecessors' decisions when making decisions under varying degrees of uncertainty.

Using a controlled laboratory experiment, the authors separate the follow-own-signal behavior from other types of behavior such as Bayes consistent or herd-like (i.e. follow-the-majority) behavior.

As the authors systemically increase the degree of uncertainty in the information environment, participants are increasingly more likely to act only on their own signal. This suggests that financial decisions that are made under highly uncertain market conditions may be more signal revealing, and hence, may lead to better information aggregation than previously thought. The authors also find that as uncertainty increases, participants are more likely to switch in and out of this behavior, suggesting that behavior under highly uncertain conditions may also be more random and complex.

The authors are the first to examine how uncertainty affects the follow-own-signal behavior. The authors also offer potential testable empirical implications, such as an increase in contrarian investing, home bias, and own-company ownership under times of increased uncertainty or in more uncertain markets.

This paper tests the feasibility and empirical implications of a spatial econometric model with a full set of interaction effects and weight matrix defined as an equally weighted group interaction matrix applied to research productivity of individuals. We also elaborate two extensions of this model, namely with group fixed effects and with heteroskedasticity. In our setting, the model with a full set of interaction effects is overparameterised: only the SDM and SDEM specifications produce acceptable results. They imply comparable spillover effects, but by applying a Bayesian approach taken from LeSage (2014), we are able to show that the SDEM specification is more appropriate and thus that colleague interaction effects work through observed and unobserved exogenous characteristics common to researchers within a group.