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Open Access
Article
Publication date: 31 May 2023

Xiaojie Xu and Yun Zhang

For policymakers and participants of financial markets, predictions of trading volumes of financial indices are important issues. This study aims to address such a prediction…

Abstract

Purpose

For policymakers and participants of financial markets, predictions of trading volumes of financial indices are important issues. This study aims to address such a prediction problem based on the CSI300 nearby futures by using high-frequency data recorded each minute from the launch date of the futures to roughly two years after constituent stocks of the futures all becoming shortable, a time period witnessing significantly increased trading activities.

Design/methodology/approach

In order to answer questions as follows, this study adopts the neural network for modeling the irregular trading volume series of the CSI300 nearby futures: are the research able to utilize the lags of the trading volume series to make predictions; if this is the case, how far can the predictions go and how accurate can the predictions be; can this research use predictive information from trading volumes of the CSI300 spot and first distant futures for improving prediction accuracy and what is the corresponding magnitude; how sophisticated is the model; and how robust are its predictions?

Findings

The results of this study show that a simple neural network model could be constructed with 10 hidden neurons to robustly predict the trading volume of the CSI300 nearby futures using 1–20 min ahead trading volume data. The model leads to the root mean square error of about 955 contracts. Utilizing additional predictive information from trading volumes of the CSI300 spot and first distant futures could further benefit prediction accuracy and the magnitude of improvements is about 1–2%. This benefit is particularly significant when the trading volume of the CSI300 nearby futures is close to be zero. Another benefit, at the cost of the model becoming slightly more sophisticated with more hidden neurons, is that predictions could be generated through 1–30 min ahead trading volume data.

Originality/value

The results of this study could be used for multiple purposes, including designing financial index trading systems and platforms, monitoring systematic financial risks and building financial index price forecasting.

Details

Asian Journal of Economics and Banking, vol. 8 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2615-9821

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 5 October 2023

Babitha Philip and Hamad AlJassmi

To proactively draw efficient maintenance plans, road agencies should be able to forecast main road distress parameters, such as cracking, rutting, deflection and International…

Abstract

Purpose

To proactively draw efficient maintenance plans, road agencies should be able to forecast main road distress parameters, such as cracking, rutting, deflection and International Roughness Index (IRI). Nonetheless, the behavior of those parameters throughout pavement life cycles is associated with high uncertainty, resulting from various interrelated factors that fluctuate over time. This study aims to propose the use of dynamic Bayesian belief networks for the development of time-series prediction models to probabilistically forecast road distress parameters.

Design/methodology/approach

While Bayesian belief network (BBN) has the merit of capturing uncertainty associated with variables in a domain, dynamic BBNs, in particular, are deemed ideal for forecasting road distress over time due to its Markovian and invariant transition probability properties. Four dynamic BBN models are developed to represent rutting, deflection, cracking and IRI, using pavement data collected from 32 major road sections in the United Arab Emirates between 2013 and 2019. Those models are based on several factors affecting pavement deterioration, which are classified into three categories traffic factors, environmental factors and road-specific factors.

Findings

The four developed performance prediction models achieved an overall precision and reliability rate of over 80%.

Originality/value

The proposed approach provides flexibility to illustrate road conditions under various scenarios, which is beneficial for pavement maintainers in obtaining a realistic representation of expected future road conditions, where maintenance efforts could be prioritized and optimized.

Details

Construction Innovation , vol. 24 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1471-4175

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 3 November 2023

Xiaojie Xu and Yun Zhang

The Chinese housing market has gone through rapid growth during the past decade, and house price forecasting has evolved to be a significant issue that draws enormous attention…

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Abstract

Purpose

The Chinese housing market has gone through rapid growth during the past decade, and house price forecasting has evolved to be a significant issue that draws enormous attention from investors, policy makers and researchers. This study investigates neural networks for composite property price index forecasting from ten major Chinese cities for the period of July 2005–April 2021.

Design/methodology/approach

The goal is to build simple and accurate neural network models that contribute to pure technical forecasts of composite property prices. To facilitate the analysis, the authors consider different model settings across algorithms, delays, hidden neurons and data spitting ratios.

Findings

The authors arrive at a pretty simple neural network with six delays and three hidden neurons, which generates rather stable performance of average relative root mean square errors across the ten cities below 1% for the training, validation and testing phases.

Originality/value

Results here could be utilized on a standalone basis or combined with fundamental forecasts to help form perspectives of composite property price trends and conduct policy analysis.

Details

Property Management, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0263-7472

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 7 July 2023

Xiaojie Xu and Yun Zhang

The Chinese housing market has witnessed rapid growth during the past decade and the significance of housing price forecasting has undoubtedly elevated, becoming an important…

Abstract

Purpose

The Chinese housing market has witnessed rapid growth during the past decade and the significance of housing price forecasting has undoubtedly elevated, becoming an important issue to investors and policymakers. This study aims to examine neural networks (NNs) for office property price index forecasting from 10 major Chinese cities for July 2005–April 2021.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors aim at building simple and accurate NNs to contribute to pure technical forecasts of the Chinese office property market. To facilitate the analysis, the authors explore different model settings over algorithms, delays, hidden neurons and data-spitting ratios.

Findings

The authors reach a simple NN with three delays and three hidden neurons, which leads to stable performance of about 1.45% average relative root mean square error across the 10 cities for the training, validation and testing phases.

Originality/value

The results could be used on a standalone basis or combined with fundamental forecasts to form perspectives of office property price trends and conduct policy analysis.

Details

Journal of Financial Management of Property and Construction , vol. 29 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1366-4387

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 29 March 2024

Pratheek Suresh and Balaji Chakravarthy

As data centres grow in size and complexity, traditional air-cooling methods are becoming less effective and more expensive. Immersion cooling, where servers are submerged in a…

Abstract

Purpose

As data centres grow in size and complexity, traditional air-cooling methods are becoming less effective and more expensive. Immersion cooling, where servers are submerged in a dielectric fluid, has emerged as a promising alternative. Ensuring reliable operations in data centre applications requires the development of an effective control framework for immersion cooling systems, which necessitates the prediction of server temperature. While deep learning-based temperature prediction models have shown effectiveness, further enhancement is needed to improve their prediction accuracy. This study aims to develop a temperature prediction model using Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) Networks based on recursive encoder-decoder architecture.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper explores the use of deep learning algorithms to predict the temperature of a heater in a two-phase immersion-cooled system using NOVEC 7100. The performance of recursive-long short-term memory-encoder-decoder (R-LSTM-ED), recursive-convolutional neural network-LSTM (R-CNN-LSTM) and R-LSTM approaches are compared using mean absolute error, root mean square error, mean absolute percentage error and coefficient of determination (R2) as performance metrics. The impact of window size, sampling period and noise within training data on the performance of the model is investigated.

Findings

The R-LSTM-ED consistently outperforms the R-LSTM model by 6%, 15.8% and 12.5%, and R-CNN-LSTM model by 4%, 11% and 12.3% in all forecast ranges of 10, 30 and 60 s, respectively, averaged across all the workloads considered in the study. The optimum sampling period based on the study is found to be 2 s and the window size to be 60 s. The performance of the model deteriorates significantly as the noise level reaches 10%.

Research limitations/implications

The proposed models are currently trained on data collected from an experimental setup simulating data centre loads. Future research should seek to extend the applicability of the models by incorporating time series data from immersion-cooled servers.

Originality/value

The proposed multivariate-recursive-prediction models are trained and tested by using real Data Centre workload traces applied to the immersion-cooled system developed in the laboratory.

Details

International Journal of Numerical Methods for Heat & Fluid Flow, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0961-5539

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 19 July 2022

Harish Kundra, Sudhir Sharma, P. Nancy and Dasari Kalyani

Bitcoin has indeed been universally acknowledged as an investment asset in recent decades, after the boom-and-bust of cryptocurrency values. Because of its extreme volatility, it…

Abstract

Purpose

Bitcoin has indeed been universally acknowledged as an investment asset in recent decades, after the boom-and-bust of cryptocurrency values. Because of its extreme volatility, it requires accurate forecasts to build economic decisions. Although prior research has utilized machine learning to improve Bitcoin price prediction accuracy, few have looked into the plausibility of using multiple modeling approaches on datasets containing varying data types and volumetric attributes. Thus, this paper aims to propose a bitcoin price prediction model.

Design/methodology/approach

In this research work, a bitcoin price prediction model is introduced by following three major phases: Data collection, feature extraction and price prediction. Initially, the collected Bitcoin time-series data will be preprocessed and the original features will be extracted. To make this work good-fit with a high level of accuracy, we have been extracting the second order technical indicator based features like average true range (ATR), modified-exponential moving average (M-EMA), relative strength index and rate of change and proposed decomposed inter-day difference. Subsequently, these extracted features along with the original features will be subjected to prediction phase, where the prediction of bitcoin price value is attained precisely from the constructed two-level ensemble classifier. The two-level ensemble classifier will be the amalgamation of two fabulous classifiers: optimized convolutional neural network (CNN) and bidirectional long/short-term memory (BiLSTM). To cope up with the volatility characteristics of bitcoin prices, it is planned to fine-tune the weight parameter of CNN by a new hybrid optimization model. The proposed hybrid optimization model referred as black widow updated rain optimization (BWURO) model will be conceptual blended of rain optimization algorithm and black widow optimization algorithm.

Findings

The proposed work is compared over the existing models in terms of convergence, MAE, MAPE, MARE, MSE, MSPE, MRSE, Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), RMSPE and RMSRE, respectively. These evaluations have been conducted for both algorithmic performance as well as classifier performance. At LP = 50, the MAE of the proposed work is 0.023372, which is 59.8%, 72.2%, 62.14% and 64.08% better than BWURO + Bi-LSTM, CNN + BWURO, NN + BWURO and SVM + BWURO, respectively.

Originality/value

In this research work, a new modified EMA feature is extracted, which makes the bitcoin price prediction more efficient. In this research work, a two-level ensemble classifier is constructed in the price prediction phase by blending the Bi-LSTM and optimized CNN, respectively. To deal with the volatility of bitcoin values, a novel hybrid optimization model is used to fine-tune the weight parameter of CNN.

Details

Kybernetes, vol. 52 no. 11
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0368-492X

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 23 July 2020

Rami Mustafa A. Mohammad

Spam emails classification using data mining and machine learning approaches has enticed the researchers' attention duo to its obvious positive impact in protecting internet…

1962

Abstract

Spam emails classification using data mining and machine learning approaches has enticed the researchers' attention duo to its obvious positive impact in protecting internet users. Several features can be used for creating data mining and machine learning based spam classification models. Yet, spammers know that the longer they will use the same set of features for tricking email users the more probably the anti-spam parties might develop tools for combating this kind of annoying email messages. Spammers, so, adapt by continuously reforming the group of features utilized for composing spam emails. For that reason, even though traditional classification methods possess sound classification results, they were ineffective for lifelong classification of spam emails duo to the fact that they might be prone to the so-called “Concept Drift”. In the current study, an enhanced model is proposed for ensuring lifelong spam classification model. For the evaluation purposes, the overall performance of the suggested model is contrasted against various other stream mining classification techniques. The results proved the success of the suggested model as a lifelong spam emails classification method.

Details

Applied Computing and Informatics, vol. 20 no. 1/2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2634-1964

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 5 April 2024

Fangqi Hong, Pengfei Wei and Michael Beer

Bayesian cubature (BC) has emerged to be one of most competitive approach for estimating the multi-dimensional integral especially when the integrand is expensive to evaluate, and…

Abstract

Purpose

Bayesian cubature (BC) has emerged to be one of most competitive approach for estimating the multi-dimensional integral especially when the integrand is expensive to evaluate, and alternative acquisition functions, such as the Posterior Variance Contribution (PVC) function, have been developed for adaptive experiment design of the integration points. However, those sequential design strategies also prevent BC from being implemented in a parallel scheme. Therefore, this paper aims at developing a parallelized adaptive BC method to further improve the computational efficiency.

Design/methodology/approach

By theoretically examining the multimodal behavior of the PVC function, it is concluded that the multiple local maxima all have important contribution to the integration accuracy as can be selected as design points, providing a practical way for parallelization of the adaptive BC. Inspired by the above finding, four multimodal optimization algorithms, including one newly developed in this work, are then introduced for finding multiple local maxima of the PVC function in one run, and further for parallel implementation of the adaptive BC.

Findings

The superiority of the parallel schemes and the performance of the four multimodal optimization algorithms are then demonstrated and compared with the k-means clustering method by using two numerical benchmarks and two engineering examples.

Originality/value

Multimodal behavior of acquisition function for BC is comprehensively investigated. All the local maxima of the acquisition function contribute to adaptive BC accuracy. Parallelization of adaptive BC is realized with four multimodal optimization methods.

Details

Engineering Computations, vol. 41 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0264-4401

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 24 April 2024

S. Thavasi and T. Revathi

With so many placement opportunities around the students in their final or prefinal year, they start to feel the strain of the season. The students feel the need to be aware of…

Abstract

Purpose

With so many placement opportunities around the students in their final or prefinal year, they start to feel the strain of the season. The students feel the need to be aware of their position and how to increase their chances of being hired. Hence, a system to guide their career is one of the needs of the day.

Design/methodology/approach

The job role prediction system utilizes machine learning techniques such as Naïve Bayes, K-Nearest Neighbor, Support Vector machines (SVM) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) to suggest a student’s job role based on their academic performance and course outcomes (CO), out of which ANN performs better. The system uses the Mepco Schlenk Engineering College curriculum, placement and students’ Assessment data sets, in which the CO and syllabus are used to determine the skills that the student has gained from their courses. The necessary skills for a job position are then extracted from the job advertisements. The system compares the student’s skills with the required skills for the job role based on the placement prediction result.

Findings

The system predicts placement possibilities with an accuracy of 93.33 and 98% precision. Also, the skill analysis for students gives the students information about their skill-set strengths and weaknesses.

Research limitations/implications

For skill-set analysis, only the direct assessment of the students is considered. Indirect assessment shall also be considered for future scope.

Practical implications

The model is adaptable and flexible (customizable) to any type of academic institute or universities.

Social implications

The research will be very much useful for the students community to bridge the gap between the academic and industrial needs.

Originality/value

Several works are done for career guidance for the students. However, these career guidance methodologies are designed only using the curriculum and students’ basic personal information. The proposed system will consider the students’ academic performance through direct assessment, along with their curriculum and basic personal information.

Details

Kybernetes, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0368-492X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 14 August 2023

Usman Tariq, Ranjit Joy, Sung-Heng Wu, Muhammad Arif Mahmood, Asad Waqar Malik and Frank Liou

This study aims to discuss the state-of-the-art digital factory (DF) development combining digital twins (DTs), sensing devices, laser additive manufacturing (LAM) and subtractive…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to discuss the state-of-the-art digital factory (DF) development combining digital twins (DTs), sensing devices, laser additive manufacturing (LAM) and subtractive manufacturing (SM) processes. The current shortcomings and outlook of the DF also have been highlighted. A DF is a state-of-the-art manufacturing facility that uses innovative technologies, including automation, artificial intelligence (AI), the Internet of Things, additive manufacturing (AM), SM, hybrid manufacturing (HM), sensors for real-time feedback and control, and a DT, to streamline and improve manufacturing operations.

Design/methodology/approach

This study presents a novel perspective on DF development using laser-based AM, SM, sensors and DTs. Recent developments in laser-based AM, SM, sensors and DTs have been compiled. This study has been developed using systematic reviews and meta-analyses (PRISMA) guidelines, discussing literature on the DTs for laser-based AM, particularly laser powder bed fusion and direct energy deposition, in-situ monitoring and control equipment, SM and HM. The principal goal of this study is to highlight the aspects of DF and its development using existing techniques.

Findings

A comprehensive literature review finds a substantial lack of complete techniques that incorporate cyber-physical systems, advanced data analytics, AI, standardized interoperability, human–machine cooperation and scalable adaptability. The suggested DF effectively fills this void by integrating cyber-physical system components, including DT, AM, SM and sensors into the manufacturing process. Using sophisticated data analytics and AI algorithms, the DF facilitates real-time data analysis, predictive maintenance, quality control and optimal resource allocation. In addition, the suggested DF ensures interoperability between diverse devices and systems by emphasizing standardized communication protocols and interfaces. The modular and adaptable architecture of the DF enables scalability and adaptation, allowing for rapid reaction to market conditions.

Originality/value

Based on the need of DF, this review presents a comprehensive approach to DF development using DTs, sensing devices, LAM and SM processes and provides current progress in this domain.

1 – 10 of 221