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There is abundant literature analyzing the determinants of banks’ profitability through its main component: the net interest margin. Some of these determinants are suggested by seminal theoretical models and subsequent expansions. Others are ad-hoc selections. Up to now, there are no studies assessing these models from a Bayesian model uncertainty perspective. This paper aims to analyze this issue for the EU-15 countries for the period 2008-2014, which mainly corresponds to the Great Recession years.

It follows a Bayesian variable selection approach to analyze, in a first step, which variables of those suggested by the literature are actually good predictors of banks’ net interest margin. In a second step, using a model selection approach, the authors select the model with the best fit. Finally, the paper provides inference and quantifies the economic impact of the variables selected as good candidates.

The results widely support the validity of the determinants proposed by the seminal models, with only minor discrepancies, reinforcing their capacity to explain net interest margin disparities also during the recent period of restructuring of the banking industry.

The paper is, to the best of the knowledge, the first one following a Bayesian variable selection approach in this field of the literature.

The paper compares multi-period forecasting performances by direct and iterated method using Bayesian vector autoregressive (VAR) models.

The paper adopts Bayesian VAR models with three different priors – independent Normal-Wishart prior, the Minnesota prior and the stochastic search variable selection (SSVS). Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to compare forecasting performances. An empirical study using US macroeconomic data are shown as an illustration.

In theory direct forecasts are more efficient asymptotically and more robust to model misspecification than iterated forecasts, and iterated forecasts tend to bias but more efficient if the one-period ahead model is correctly specified. From the results of the Monte Carlo simulations, iterated forecasts tend to outperform direct forecasts, particularly with longer lag model and with longer forecast horizons. Implementing SSVS prior generally improves forecasting performance over unrestricted VAR model for either nonstationary or stationary data.

The paper finds that iterated forecasts using model with the SSVS prior generally best outperform, suggesting that the SSVS restrictions on insignificant parameters alleviates over-parameterized problem of VAR in one-step ahead forecast and thus offers an appreciable improvement in forecast performance of iterated forecasts.

Efficient traffic incident management is needed to alleviate the negative impact of traffic incidents. Accurate and reliable estimation of traffic incident duration is of great importance for traffic incident management. Previous studies have proposed models for traffic incident duration prediction; however, most of these studies focus on the total duration and could not update prediction results in real-time. From a traveler’s perspective, the relevant factor is the residual duration of the impact of the traffic incident. Besides, few (if any) studies have used dynamic traffic flow parameters in the prediction models. This paper aims to propose a framework to fill these gaps.

This paper proposes a framework based on the multi-layer perception (MLP) and long short-term memory (LSTM) model. The proposed methodology integrates traffic incident-related factors and real-time traffic flow parameters to predict the residual traffic incident duration. To validate the effectiveness of the framework, traffic incident data and traffic flow data from Shanghai Zhonghuan Expressway are used for modeling training and testing.

Results show that the model with 30-min time window and taking both traffic volume and speed as inputs performed best. The area under the curve values exceed 0.85 and the prediction accuracies exceed 0.75. These indicators demonstrated that the model is appropriate for this study context. The model provides new insights into traffic incident duration prediction.

The incident samples applied by this study might not be enough and the variables are not abundant. The number of injuries and casualties, more detailed description of the incident location and other variables are expected to be used to characterize the traffic incident comprehensively. The framework needs to be further validated through a sufficiently large number of variables and locations.

The framework can help reduce the impacts of incidents on the safety of efficiency of road traffic once implemented in intelligent transport system and traffic management systems in future practical applications.

This study uses two artificial neural network methods, MLP and LSTM, to establish a framework aiming at providing accurate and time-efficient information on traffic incident duration in the future for transportation operators and travelers. This study will contribute to the deployment of emergency management and urban traffic navigation planning.

The concept of productivity is central to performance management and decision-making, although it is complex and multifaceted. This paper aims to describe a methodology based on the use of Big Data in a cluster analysis combined with a data envelopment analysis (DEA) that provides accurate and reliable productivity measures in a large network of retailers.

The methodology is described using a case study of a leading kitchen furniture producer. More specifically, Big Data is used in a two-step analysis prior to the DEA to automatically cluster a large number of retailers into groups that are homogeneous in terms of structural and environmental factors and assess a within-the-group level of productivity of the retailers.

The proposed methodology helps reduce the heterogeneity among the units analysed, which is a major concern in DEA applications. The data-driven factorial and clustering technique allows for maximum within-group homogeneity and between-group heterogeneity by reducing subjective bias and dimensionality, which is embedded with the use of Big Data.

The use of Big Data in clustering applied to productivity analysis can provide managers with data-driven information about the structural and socio-economic characteristics of retailers' catchment areas, which is important in establishing potential productivity performance and optimizing resource allocation. The improved productivity indexes enable the setting of targets that are coherent with retailers' potential, which increases motivation and commitment.

This article proposes an innovative technique to enhance the accuracy of productivity measures through the use of Big Data clustering and DEA. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, no attempts have been made to benefit from the use of Big Data in the literature on retail store productivity.

Based on the survey data of 650 kiwi growers from Shaanxi and Sichuan provinces, this paper used multiple endogenous transformation regression models to explore the effect of the joint adoption of green production technology on farmer’s welfare. The purpose of the study is to analyze the influence of green production technology on the yield, household income and socioeconomic characteristics of Kiwi fruit growers.

In the context of the study, multiple endogenous transformation model (MESR) are adopted, but self-actualization tactics were adopted to deal with the instrumental variables. The empirical data has been collected via a combined hierarchical sampling and random sampling, whereas a well-structured Likert scale questionnaire was adopted as well. The empirical data has been processed with the help of STATA 15.1 version.

The study found a positive impact of adopting green production technology. Moreover, the joint adoption of green production technology by kiwi growers has significantly increased the yield, economic values of Kiwi and household income of kiwi farmers. The households with higher asset value, better land quality, weaker credit constraints, more technical training and stronger government promotion and support from local governments are the most likely to adopt pest control technology and soil management technology jointly.

The prime innovation of the paper is to measure the impact of technology combination adoption on farmer’s welfare is evaluated, rather than the impact of single sub technology on farmer’s’ welfare.

Faced with the challenges of rural population decline, combined with the widespread expansion of homesteads in rural areas, local Chinese governments hope to strictly control and minimize rural housing land. Accurately decomposing the process of rural housing expansion and revealing its driving factors will be helpful for land-use regulation by the government.

In this study, an unusually rich dataset of rural housing registration from Pudong New Area in Shanghai is employed. The study aimed to decompose the fragmented accumulation process and its expansion determinants on rural housing assets. The dataset covers all samples of rural households and housing plots at 72 surveyed villages in six towns.

Housing offers profitable capital and earning assets to villagers at the urban fringe, so they have a powerful incentive to build and expand more. The results of this analysis showed that the expansion of rural housing is largely due to the haphazard construction of auxiliary rooms by villagers, especially on plots of arable land that are adjacent to their houses that have been stealthily converted into auxiliary rooms and sheds. Low costs and weak penalties have led to an increase in rent-seeking expansions to rural houses. Houses with the smaller initial areas, families with more laborers and household heads, and the proximity of villages to downtown with convenient living services were the main driving factors for expanding houses. A concerted effort is needed to control the disorganized and unlicensed expansion of housing. This effort should include formulating areas for free use by villagers, high taxes on overused areas, serious penalties for unlicensed housing expansion and effective land-use planning.

An understanding of the expansion status and control measures related to rural houses in Shanghai provides an important reference that can help to guide the formulation of rural housing policies, and the sustainable development of cities worldwide. Of course, this study cannot generalize about housing distribution and expansion status worldwide based on the study area in China, because China's land tenure policies are unique. But land registry data exists that makes research like this feasible. There is a need to carefully examine the detailed housing distribution in each country before it can be decided on how best to address the disorderly increase in rural housing stock, and promote the reduction of rural residential expansion.

First, the process of rural housing expansion by using an unique dataset which covers ten thousands of samples is revealed. Second, the results have policy implications for reducing the amount of idle and inefficiently rural homestead. The focus is on rural housing growth and its driving factors in Shanghai, and the villagers' motivations for housing expansion are explored.

The study aims to explore the validity of the modern renewable energy-environmental Kuznets curve (REKC) while considering the relevance of financial development in the consumption of modern renewable energy in East Africa Community (EAC). Modern renewable energy in this study includes all other forms of renewable energy except traditional use of biomass. The authors controlled for the effects of urbanization, governance, foreign direct investment (FDI) and trade openness.

Panel data of the five EAC countries of Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda for the period 1996–2019 were used. The analysis relied on the use of the autoregressive distributed lag–pooled mean group (ARDL-PMG) model, and the data were sourced from the World Development Indicators (WDI), World Governance Indicators (WGI) and International Energy Agency (IEA).

The REKC hypothesis is supported for modern renewable energy consumption in the EAC region. Financial development positively and significantly affects modern renewable energy consumption, whereas urbanization, FDI and trade openness reduce modern renewable energy consumption. Governance is insignificant.

The concept of the REKC, although explored in other contexts such as aggregate renewable energy and in other regions, has not been used to explain the consumption of modern renewable energy in the EAC.

This study investigates the impact of global economic sanctions on foreign direct investment (FDI).

Data were gathered from several sources, including the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, the Global Sanction and the World Bank database, to build a dataset that consists of 172 countries during the period 2003–2019. The panel ordinary least square with a fixed-effects estimator was exploited to achieve the research objective.

The research findings reveal that sanction exerts a detrimental effect on the total inflows of FDI and its components. Regarding different types of sanctions, while military and trade sanctions have little or even no impact on greenfield investment, they have more adverse and sizable effects on cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&As). The authors further show that sanctions exert devastating influences through the infrastructure and economic development channels.

Overall, this study implies that a closer look at particular types of FDI is required when implementing policies as different types of FDI may be affected differently by changes in the economy, such as economic sanctions.

This paper is the first empirical study that critically investigates the impact of sanctions on the total inward FDI flows and its two components: greenfield investment and cross-border M&As. It then explores how the sanction–FDI nexus varies depending on several country-level economic factors to understand better how sanctions and different types of sanctions are related to international trade and relations.

This paper reviews the academic contributions that have emerged to date on the broad definition of farm-level management information systems (MISs). The purpose is twofold: (1) to identify the theories used in the literature to study the adoption of digital technologies and (2) to identify the drivers of and barriers to the adoption of such technologies.

The literature review was based on a comprehensive review of contributions published in the 1998–2019 period. The search was both automated and manual, browsing through references of works previously found via high-quality digital libraries.

Diffusion of innovations (DOIs) is the most frequently used theoretical framework in the literature reviewed, though it is often combined with other innovation adoption theories. In addition, farms’ and farmers’ traits, together with technological features, play a key role in explaining the adoption of these technologies.

So far, research has positioned the determinants of digital technology adoption mainly within the boundaries of the farm.

On the practical level, the extensive determinants’ review has potential to serve the aim of policymakers and technology industries, to clearly and thoroughly understand adoption dynamics and elaborate specific strategies to deal with them.

This study’s contribution to the existing body of knowledge on the farm-level adoption of digital technologies is twofold: (1) it combines smart farming and existing technologies within the same category of farm-level MIS and (2) it extends the analysis to studies which not only focus directly on adoption but also on software architecture design and development.

The purpose of this paper is to analyse the role that different financial sources and financial specialization have on private research and development (R&D) activity in OECD countries.

The authors developed several panel regressions choosing as a final model a two-way random effects regression to understand which funding sources are related to the R&D expenditure, and how financial specialization has links to the private portion of R&D aggregated expenditure. The authors include data from the years 2000 to 2016 for OECD countries.

The results reinforce the critical role that stock markets have in enhancing private R&D and that bond markets have an inverse relationship with private R&D national expenditures. The authors do not find evidence of a link between bank sources and private R&D. Specialized financial systems (banking or market) support innovation in a better way than a mixed arrangement of those two systems.

The findings of this study have considerable policy implications. Policymakers need to be aware of these results, given that some variables related to financial markets, seems to boost the inputs for R&D. In the long term, this could be a signal that national and regional systems of innovation need a broad view of the factors hampering scientific activity, and also a signal that there are other ways to impact the results of the complex innovation activity through the development of stronger financial systems backing up national systems of innovation.

The authors found that the long discussion about the financial system that a country has to choose to enhance growth with R&D&I may have been misleading the public policy. The findings show that rather than a bank or a stock market financial system, economies looking to boost R&D&I, must specialize in one of the two systems, deepen these and generate the appropriate policies to promote science, technology and innovation using those financial markets.