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With the rapid development of Internet technology, cybersecurity threats such as security loopholes, data leaks, network fraud, and ransomware have become increasingly prominent, and organized and purposeful cyberattacks have increased, posing more challenges to cybersecurity protection. Therefore, reliable network risk assessment methods and effective network security protection schemes are urgently needed.

Based on the dynamic behavior patterns of attackers and defenders, a Bayesian network attack graph is constructed, and a multitarget risk dynamic assessment model is proposed based on network availability, network utilization impact and vulnerability attack possibility. Then, the self-organizing multiobjective evolutionary algorithm based on grey wolf optimization is proposed. And the authors use this algorithm to solve the multiobjective risk assessment model, and a variety of different attack strategies are obtained.

The experimental results demonstrate that the method yields 29 distinct attack strategies, and then attacker's preferences can be obtained according to these attack strategies. Furthermore, the method efficiently addresses the security assessment problem involving multiple decision variables, thereby providing constructive guidance for the construction of security network, security reinforcement and active defense.

A method for network risk assessment methods is given. And this study proposed a multiobjective risk dynamic assessment model based on network availability, network utilization impact and the possibility of vulnerability attacks. The example demonstrates the effectiveness of the method in addressing network security risks.

The purpose of this study is to contribute to the literature on information elicitation. The authors investigated the impact of social influence strategies on eyewitness recall performance. Specifically, the authors examined the effect of social influence techniques (Cialdini, 2007) on recall performance (Experiment 1) and conducted a follow-up experiment to examine the incremental effect of social proof on the report everything cognitive interview mnemonic (Experiment 2).

Participants watched a video depicting vandalism (Experiment 1: N = 174) or a verbal altercation (Experiment 2: N = 128) and were asked to recall the witnessed event. Experiment 1: Participants were assigned randomly to one of six conditions: control (open-ended prompt), engage and explain (interview ground rules), consistency (signing an agreement to work diligently), reciprocity (given water and food), authority (told of interviewer’s training) and social proof (shown transcript from an exemplar participant). Experiment 2: The authors used a 2 (social proof: present, absent) × 2 (report everything: present, absent) between-participants design.

Across both experiments, participants exposed to the social proof tactic (i.e. compared to a model exemplar) spoke longer and recalled more correct details than participants not exposed to the social proof tactic. In Experiment 2, participants interviewed with the report everything mnemonic also spoke longer, recalled more correct details, more incorrect details and provided slightly more confabulations than those not interviewed with the report everything mnemonic.

The findings have practical value for police investigators and other professionals who conduct interviews (e.g. military personnel, doctors obtaining information from patients). Interviewers can incorporate social proof in their interviewing practices to help increase the amount and accuracy of information obtained.

Challenges associated with ensuring the accuracy and reliability of cost estimation of highway construction bid items are of significant interest to state highway transportation agencies. Even with the existing research undertaken on the subject, the problem of inaccurate estimation of highway bid items still exists. This paper aims to assess the accuracy of the cost estimation methods employed in the selected studies to provide insights into how well they perform empirically. Additionally, this research seeks to identify, synthesize and assess the impact of the factors affecting highway unit prices because they affect the total cost of highway construction costs.

This paper systematically searched, selected and reviewed 105 papers from Scopus, Google Scholar, American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE), Transportation Research Board (TRB) and Science Direct (SD) on conceptual cost estimation of highway bid items. This study used content and nonparametric statistical analyses to determine research trends, identify, categorize the factors influencing highway unit prices and assess the combined performance of conceptual cost prediction models.

Findings from the trend analysis showed that between 1983 and 2019 North America, Asia, Europe and the Middle East contributed the most to improving highway cost estimation research. Aggregating the quantitative results and weighting the findings using each study's sample size revealed that the average error between the actual and the estimated project costs of Monte-Carlo simulation models (5.49%) performed better compared to the Bayesian model (5.95%), support vector machines (6.03%), case-based reasoning (11.69%), artificial neural networks (12.62%) and regression models (13.96%). This paper identified 41 factors and was grouped into three categories, namely: (1) factors relating to project characteristics; (2) organizational factors and (3) estimate factors based on the common classification used in the selected papers. The mean ranking analysis showed that most of the selected papers used project-specific factors more when estimating highway construction bid items than the other factors.

This paper contributes to the body of knowledge by analyzing and comparing the performance of highway cost estimation models, identifying and categorizing a comprehensive list of cost drivers to stimulate future studies in improving highway construction cost estimates.

The growing availability of naturalistic driving datasets (NDDs) presents a valuable opportunity to develop various models for autonomous driving. However, while current NDDs include data on vehicles with and without intended driving behavior changes, they do not explicitly demonstrate a type of data on vehicles that intend to change their driving behavior but do not execute the behaviors because of safety, efficiency, or other factors. This missing data is essential for autonomous driving decisions. This study aims to extract the driving data with implicit intentions to support the development of decision-making models.

According to Bayesian inference, drivers who have the same intended changes likely share similar influencing factors and states. Building on this principle, this study proposes an approach to extract data on vehicles that intended to execute specific behaviors but failed to do so. This is achieved by computing driving similarities between the candidate vehicles and benchmark vehicles with incorporation of the standard similarity metrics, which takes into account information on the surrounding vehicles' location topology and individual vehicle motion states. By doing so, the method enables a more comprehensive analysis of driving behavior and intention.

The proposed method is verified on the Next Generation SIMulation dataset (NGSim), which confirms its ability to reveal similarities between vehicles executing similar behaviors during the decision-making process in nature. The approach is also validated using simulated data, achieving an accuracy of 96.3 per cent in recognizing vehicles with specific driving behavior intentions that are not executed.

This study provides an innovative approach to extract driving data with implicit intentions and offers strong support to develop data-driven decision-making models for autonomous driving. With the support of this approach, the development of autonomous vehicles can capture more real driving experience from human drivers moving towards a safer and more efficient future.

Bayesian cubature (BC) has emerged to be one of most competitive approach for estimating the multi-dimensional integral especially when the integrand is expensive to evaluate, and alternative acquisition functions, such as the Posterior Variance Contribution (PVC) function, have been developed for adaptive experiment design of the integration points. However, those sequential design strategies also prevent BC from being implemented in a parallel scheme. Therefore, this paper aims at developing a parallelized adaptive BC method to further improve the computational efficiency.

By theoretically examining the multimodal behavior of the PVC function, it is concluded that the multiple local maxima all have important contribution to the integration accuracy as can be selected as design points, providing a practical way for parallelization of the adaptive BC. Inspired by the above finding, four multimodal optimization algorithms, including one newly developed in this work, are then introduced for finding multiple local maxima of the PVC function in one run, and further for parallel implementation of the adaptive BC.

The superiority of the parallel schemes and the performance of the four multimodal optimization algorithms are then demonstrated and compared with the k-means clustering method by using two numerical benchmarks and two engineering examples.

Multimodal behavior of acquisition function for BC is comprehensively investigated. All the local maxima of the acquisition function contribute to adaptive BC accuracy. Parallelization of adaptive BC is realized with four multimodal optimization methods.

Confidence intervals play a crucial role in economics and finance, providing a credible range of values for an unknown parameter along with a corresponding level of certainty. Their applications encompass economic forecasting, market research, financial forecasting, econometric analysis, policy analysis, financial reporting, investment decision-making, credit risk assessment and consumer confidence surveys. Signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) finds applications in economics and finance across various domains such as economic forecasting, financial modeling, market analysis and risk assessment. A high SNR indicates a robust and dependable signal, simplifying the process of making well-informed decisions. On the other hand, a low SNR indicates a weak signal that could be obscured by noise, so decision-making procedures need to take this into serious consideration. This research focuses on the development of confidence intervals for functions derived from the SNR and explores their application in the fields of economics and finance.

The construction of the confidence intervals involved the application of various methodologies. For the SNR, confidence intervals were formed using the generalized confidence interval (GCI), large sample and Bayesian approaches. The difference between SNRs was estimated through the GCI, large sample, method of variance estimates recovery (MOVER), parametric bootstrap and Bayesian approaches. Additionally, confidence intervals for the common SNR were constructed using the GCI, adjusted MOVER, computational and Bayesian approaches. The performance of these confidence intervals was assessed using coverage probability and average length, evaluated through Monte Carlo simulation.

The GCI approach demonstrated superior performance over other approaches in terms of both coverage probability and average length for the SNR and the difference between SNRs. Hence, employing the GCI approach is advised for constructing confidence intervals for these parameters. As for the common SNR, the Bayesian approach exhibited the shortest average length. Consequently, the Bayesian approach is recommended for constructing confidence intervals for the common SNR.

This research presents confidence intervals for functions of the SNR to assess SNR estimation in the fields of economics and finance.

A progressive hybrid censoring scheme (PHCS) becomes impractical for ensuring dependable outcomes when there is a low likelihood of encountering a small number of failures prior to the predetermined terminal time T. The generalized progressive hybrid censoring scheme (GPHCS) efficiently addresses to overcome the limitation of the PHCS.

In this article, estimation of model parameter, survival and hazard rate of the Unit-Lindley distribution (ULD), when sample comes from the GPHCS, have been taken into account. The maximum likelihood estimator has been derived using Newton–Raphson iterative procedures. Approximate confidence intervals of the model parameter and their arbitrary functions are established by the Fisher information matrix. Bayesian estimation procedures have been derived using Metropolis–Hastings algorithm under squared error loss function. Convergence of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) samples has been examined. Various optimality criteria have been considered. An extensive Monte Carlo simulation analysis has been shown to compare and validating of the proposed estimation techniques.

The Bayesian MCMC approach to estimate the model parameters and reliability characteristics of the generalized progressive hybrid censored data of ULD is recommended. The authors anticipate that health data analysts and reliability professionals will get benefit from the findings and approaches presented in this study.

The ULD has a broad range of practical utility, making it a problem to estimate the model parameters as well as reliability characteristics and the significance of the GPHCS also encourage the authors to consider the present estimation problem because it has not previously been discussed in the literature.

This paper aims to develop a dynamic civil facility degradation prediction model to forecast the reliability performance tendency and remaining useful life under imperfect maintenance based on the inspection records and the maintenance actions.

A real-time hidden Markov chain (HMM) model is proposed in this paper to predict the reliability performance tendency and remaining useful life under imperfect maintenance based on rare failure events. The model assumes a Poisson arrival pattern for facility failure events occurrence. HMM is further adopted to establish the transmission probabilities among stages. Finally, the simulation inference is conducted using Particle filter (PF) to estimate the most probable model parameters. Water seals at the spillway hydraulic gate in a Taiwan's reservoir are used to examine the appropriateness of the approach.

The results of defect probabilities tendency from the real-time HMM model are highly consistent with the real defect trend pattern of civil facilities. The proposed facility degradation prediction model can provide the maintenance division with early warning of potential failure to establish a proper proactive maintenance plan, even under the condition of rare defects.

This model is a new method of civil facility degradation prediction under imperfect maintenance, even with rare failure events. It overcomes several limitations of classical failure pattern prediction approaches and can reliably simulate the occurrence of rare defects under imperfect maintenance and the effect of inspection reliability caused by human error. Based on the degradation trend pattern prediction, effective maintenance management plans can be practically implemented to minimize the frequency of the occurrence and the consequence of civil facility failures.

Ensuring the early detection of structural issues in aircraft is crucial for preserving human lives. One effective approach involves identifying cracks in composite structures. This paper employs experimental modal analysis and a multi-variable Gaussian process regression method to detect and locate cracks in glass fiber composite beams.

The present study proposes Gaussian process regression model trained by the first three natural frequencies determined experimentally using a roving impact hammer method with crystal four-channel analyzer, uniaxial accelerometer and experimental modal analysis software. The first three natural frequencies of the cracked composite beams obtained from experimental modal analysis are used to train a multi-variable Gaussian process regression model for crack localization. Radial basis function is used as a kernel function, and hyperparameters are optimized using the negative log marginal likelihood function. Bayesian conditional probability likelihood function is used to estimate the mean and variance for crack localization in composite structures.

The efficiency of Gaussian process regression is improved in the present work with the normalization of input data. The fitted Gaussian process regression model validates with experimental modal analysis for crack localization in composite structures. The discrepancy between predicted and measured values is 1.8%, indicating strong agreement between the experimental modal analysis and Gaussian process regression methods. Compared to other recent methods in the literature, this approach significantly improves efficiency and reduces error from 18.4% to 1.8%. Gaussian process regression is an efficient machine learning algorithm for crack localization in composite structures.

The experimental modal analysis results are first utilized for crack localization in cracked composite structures. Additionally, the input data are normalized and employed in a machine learning algorithm, such as the multi-variable Gaussian process regression method, to efficiently determine the crack location in these structures.

Ticket sales are an essential source of income for football clubs and federations. Analyzing the determinants of fans' willingness-to-pay for tickets is therefore an important exercise. By knowing the match- and fan-related characteristics that influence how much a fan wants to pay for a ticket, as well as to what extent, football clubs and federations can modify their ticket offering and targeting in order to optimize this revenue stream.

Using a detailed discrete choice experiment, based on McFadden's random utility theory, this paper formulates a Bayesian hierarchical multinomial logit model. Such models are very common in the discrete choice modeling literature. The analysis identifies to what extent match and personal attributes influence fans' willingness-to-pay for games of the Belgian men's and women's football national teams.

The results show that the strength of the opponent, the type of competition, the location of the seats in the stadium, the day and kick-off time of the match and the ticket price exert an influence on the choice of the respondent. Fans are attracted most by competitive games against strong opponents. They prefer to sit along the sideline, and they have clear preferences for specific kick-off days and times. The authors also find substantial variation between socio-demographic groups, defined in terms of factors such as age, gender and family composition.

The authors use the results to estimate the willingness-to-pay for match tickets for different socio-demographic groups. Their findings are useful for football clubs and federations interested in optimizing the prices of their match tickets.

To the best of the authors' knowledge, no stated preference methods, such as discrete choice analysis, have been used to analyze the willingness-to-pay of sports fans. The advantage of discrete choice analysis is that options and variations in tickets that are not yet available in practice can be studied, allowing football organizations to increase revenues from new ticketing instruments.