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Factor analysis is the most used tool in organizational research and its widespread use in scale validations contribute to decision-making in management. However, standard factor analysis is not always applied correctly mainly due to the misuse of ordinal data as interval data and the inadequacy of the former for classical factor analysis. The purpose of this paper is to present and apply the Bayesian factor analysis for mixed data (BFAMD) in the context of empirical using the Bayesian paradigm for the construction of scales.

Ignoring the categorical nature of some variables often used in management studies, as the popular Likert scale, may result in a model with false accuracy and possibly biased estimates. To address this issue, Quinn (2004) proposed a Bayesian factor analysis model for mixed data, which is capable of modeling ordinal (qualitative measure) and continuous data (quantitative measure) jointly and allows the inclusion of qualitative information through prior distributions for the parameters’ model. This model, adopted here, presents considering advantages and allows the estimation of the posterior distribution for the latent variables estimated, making the process of inference easier.

The results show that BFAMD is an effective approach for scale validation in management studies making both exploratory and confirmatory analyses possible for the estimated factors and also allowing the analysts to insert a priori information regardless of the sample size, either by using the credible intervals for Factor Loadings or by conducting specific hypotheses tests. The flexibility of the Bayesian approach presented is counterbalanced by the fact that the main estimates used in factor analysis as uniqueness and communalities commonly lose their usual interpretation due to the choice of using prior distributions.

Considering that the development of scales through factor analysis aims to contribute to appropriate decision-making in management and the increasing misuse of ordinal scales as interval in organizational studies, this proposal seems to be effective for mixed data analyses. The findings found here are not intended to be conclusive or limiting but offer a useful starting point from which further theoretical and empirical research of Bayesian factor analysis can be built.

This study proposes a Bayesian approach to analyze structural breaks and examines whether structural changes have occurred, at the onset of civil war, with respect to economic development and population during the period from 1945 to 1999.

In the Bayesian logit regression changepoint model, parameters of covariates are allowed to shift individually, regime transitions can move back and forth, and the model is applicable to cross-sectional, time-series data.

Contrary to popular belief that the causal process of civil war changed with the end of the Cold War, the empirical analysis shows that the regression relationships between civil war and economic development, as well as between civil war and population, remain quite stable during the study period.

This is the first to develop a Bayesian logit regression changepoint model and to apply it to studies of economic development and civil war.

To proactively draw efficient maintenance plans, road agencies should be able to forecast main road distress parameters, such as cracking, rutting, deflection and International Roughness Index (IRI). Nonetheless, the behavior of those parameters throughout pavement life cycles is associated with high uncertainty, resulting from various interrelated factors that fluctuate over time. This study aims to propose the use of dynamic Bayesian belief networks for the development of time-series prediction models to probabilistically forecast road distress parameters.

While Bayesian belief network (BBN) has the merit of capturing uncertainty associated with variables in a domain, dynamic BBNs, in particular, are deemed ideal for forecasting road distress over time due to its Markovian and invariant transition probability properties. Four dynamic BBN models are developed to represent rutting, deflection, cracking and IRI, using pavement data collected from 32 major road sections in the United Arab Emirates between 2013 and 2019. Those models are based on several factors affecting pavement deterioration, which are classified into three categories traffic factors, environmental factors and road-specific factors.

The four developed performance prediction models achieved an overall precision and reliability rate of over 80%.

The proposed approach provides flexibility to illustrate road conditions under various scenarios, which is beneficial for pavement maintainers in obtaining a realistic representation of expected future road conditions, where maintenance efforts could be prioritized and optimized.

The paper aims to examine the impact of social capital on the size of the shadow economy in the BIRCS countries over the period 1995–2014.

The authors employ the Bayesian linear regression method to uncover the relationship between social capital and the shadow economy. The method applies a normal distribution for the prior probability distribution while the posterior distribution is determined using the Markov chain Monte Carlo technique.

The results indicate that the unemployment rate and tax burden positively affect the size of the shadow economy. By contrast, corruption control and trade openness are negatively associated with the development of this informal sector. Moreover, the paper's primary finding is that social capital represented by social trust and tax morale can hinder the size of the shadow economy.

This study is limited to the case of the BRICS countries for the period 1995–2014. The determinants of the shadow economy in different groups of countries can be heterogeneous. Moreover, social capital is a multidimensional concept that may consist of various components. This difficulty of measuring the social capital calls for further research on the relationship between other dimensions of social capital and the shadow economy.

Many studies investigate the effect of economic factors on the size of the shadow economy. This paper applies a new approach to discover the issue. Notably, the authors use the Bayesian linear regression method to analyze the relationship between social capital and the shadow economy in the BRICS countries.

The purpose of the food traceability is used to retain the good quality of raw material supply, diminish the loss and reduced system complexity.

The proposed hybrid algorithm is for food traceability to make accurate predictions and enhanced period data. The operation of the internet of things is addressed to track and trace the food quality to check the data acquired from manufacturers and consumers.

In order to survive with the existing financial circumstances and the development of global food supply chain, the authors propose efficient food traceability techniques using the internet of things and obtain a solution for data prediction.

The operation of the internet of things is addressed to track and trace the food quality to check the data acquired from manufacturers and consumers. The experimental analysis depicts that proposed algorithm has high accuracy rate, less execution time and error rate.

The purpose of this study is to establish a systematic framework to characterise the safety of air routes, in terms of separation minima infringements (SMIs) between en-route aircraft, based on the definition of models known as safety performance functions.

Techniques with high predictive capability were selected that enable both expert knowledge and data to be harnessed: Bayesian networks. It was necessary to establish a conceptual framework that integrates the knowledge currently available on the causality and precursors of SMIs with the hindsight derived from the analysis of the type of data available. To translate the conceptual framework into a set of causal subnets, the concepts of air traffic management (ATM) barrier model and event trees have been incorporated.

The model combines analytics and insights, as well as predictive capability, to answer the question of how airspace separation infringements are produced and what their frequency of occurrence will be. The main outputs of the network are the predicted probability of success for the ATM barriers and the predicted probability distribution of the vertical and horizontal separation of an aircraft in its closest point of approach.

The main contribution of this work is that, by virtue of the calculation capacity obtained, the network can be used to draw conclusions about the impact that a modification of the airspace and of the traffic, or operational conditions, would have on the effectiveness of the barriers and on the final distributions of distance between aircraft in the CPA, thereby estimating the probability of SMI.

The paper compares multi-period forecasting performances by direct and iterated method using Bayesian vector autoregressive (VAR) models.

The paper adopts Bayesian VAR models with three different priors – independent Normal-Wishart prior, the Minnesota prior and the stochastic search variable selection (SSVS). Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to compare forecasting performances. An empirical study using US macroeconomic data are shown as an illustration.

In theory direct forecasts are more efficient asymptotically and more robust to model misspecification than iterated forecasts, and iterated forecasts tend to bias but more efficient if the one-period ahead model is correctly specified. From the results of the Monte Carlo simulations, iterated forecasts tend to outperform direct forecasts, particularly with longer lag model and with longer forecast horizons. Implementing SSVS prior generally improves forecasting performance over unrestricted VAR model for either nonstationary or stationary data.

The paper finds that iterated forecasts using model with the SSVS prior generally best outperform, suggesting that the SSVS restrictions on insignificant parameters alleviates over-parameterized problem of VAR in one-step ahead forecast and thus offers an appreciable improvement in forecast performance of iterated forecasts.