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Purpose – This chapter reports on a rapidly growing trend in the analysis of data about emerging market (EM) economies – the use of baseline models as comparisons for explanatory models. Baseline models estimate expected values for the dependent variable in the absence of a hypothesized causal effect but set higher standards than do traditional null hypotheses tests that expect no effect.

Design/methodology/approach – Although the use of baseline models research originated in the 1960s, it has not been widely discussed, or even acknowledged, in the EM literature. We surveyed published EM studies to determine trends in the use of baseline models.

Findings – We categorize and describe the different types of baseline models that scholars have used in EM studies, and draw inferences about the differences between more effective and less effective uses of baseline models.

Value – We believe that comparisons with baseline models offer distinct methodological advantages for the iterative development of better explanatory models and a deeper understanding of empirical phenomena.

This chapter reports on a rapidly growing trend in data analysis – analytic comparisons between baseline models and explanatory models. Baseline models estimate values for the dependent variable in the absence of hypothesized causal effects. Thus, the baseline models discussed in this chapter differ from the baseline models commonly used in sequential regression analyses.Baseline modelling entails iteration: (1) Researchers develop baseline models to capture key patterns in the empirical data that are independent of the hypothesized effects. (2) They compare these patterns with the patterns implied by their explanatory models. (3) They use the derived insights to improve their explanatory models. (4) They iterate by comparing their improved explanatory models with modified baseline models.The chapter draws on methodological literature in economics, applied psychology, and the philosophy of science to point out fundamental features of baseline modelling. Examples come from research in international business and management, emerging market economies and developing countries.Baseline modelling offers substantial advantages for theory development. Although analytic comparisons with baseline models originated in some research fields as early as the 1960s, they have not been widely discussed or applied in international management. Baseline modelling takes a more inductive and iterative approach to modelling and theory development. Because baseline modelling holds substantial potential, international-management scholars should explore its opportunities for advancing scientific progress.

Using data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) matched to administrative records, we examine mortality risk and participation in the Disability Insurance (DI) and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) disability programs from a long-term perspective. Over a period of 14 years, we analyze the effect of self-reported health and disability on the probability of death and disability program entry among individuals aged 18–48 in 1984. We also assess DI and SSI programs from a life-cycle perspective. Self-reported poor health and severe disability at baseline are strongly correlated with death over the 14-year follow-up period. These variables also are strong predictors of disability program participation over the follow-up period among non-participants at baseline or before, with increasing marginal probabilities in the out-years. Our cross-sectional models are consistent with recent studies that find that the work-prevented measure is useful in modeling DI entry. However, once self-reported health and functional limitations are accounted for, the longitudinal entry models provide conflicting DI results for the work-prevented measure, suggesting that, contrary to claims based on cross-sectional or short-time horizon application models, the work-prevented measure is an unreliable indicator of severity. The risk of SSI and DI participation is significantly greater for individuals who die, suggesting that future mortality captures the effect of case severity and deterioration of health during the follow-up period. From a life-cycle perspective, a substantially greater proportion of individuals participate in SSI or DI at some point in their lives compared to typical cross-sectional estimates of participation, especially among minorities, people with less than a high school education, and those with early onset of poor health and/or disabilities. Cross-sectional estimates for the Social Security area population indicate SSI and DI participation rates of no more than 5% combined in 2000. In contrast, for individuals aged 43–48 in 1984, we observe a cumulative lifetime SSI and/or DI participation rate of 14%. The corresponding figure is 32% for individuals in that age group who did not graduate from high school, suggesting the need for human capital investments and/or improved work incentives.

Job Corps is the United State’s largest and most comprehensive training program for disadvantaged youth aged 16–24 years old. A randomized social experiment concluded that, on average, individuals benefited from the program in the form of higher weekly earnings and employment prospects. At the same time, “young adults” (ages 20–24) realized much higher impacts relative to “adolescents” (ages 16–19). Employing recent nonparametric bounds for causal mediation, we investigate whether these two groups’ disparate effects correspond to them benefiting differentially from distinct aspects of Job Corps, with a particular focus on the attainment of a degree (GED, high school, or vocational). We find that, for young adults, the part of the total effect of Job Corps on earnings (employment) that is due to attaining a degree within the program is at most 41% (32%) of the total effect, whereas for adolescents that part can account for up to 87% (100%) of the total effect. We also find evidence that the magnitude of the part of the effect of Job Corps on the outcomes that works through components of Job Corps other than degree attainment (e.g., social skills, job placement, residential services) is likely higher for young adults than for adolescents. That those other components likely play a more important role for young adults has policy implications for more effectively servicing participants. More generally, our results illustrate how researchers can learn about particular mechanisms of an intervention.

Research sponsored by entities in developed countries, but conducted in developing countries, has recently been the focus of academic debate, international declarations and media controversy. Much of this attention has focused on whether the trials are exploitative and if so what should be done to avoid exploitation. This chapter takes Alan Wertheimer's principles of mutually advantageous transactions and applies them to the question of exploitation in international research. In this chapter, I develop an analysis of exploitation and apply this to the hypothesis that some pharmaceutical companies who run drug trials in developing countries wrongfully exploit the trial participants.

Single subject research has long been employed to evaluate intervention effectiveness with students with learning or behavioral disabilities. Typically, the results of single subject research are presented on graphic displays and analyzed by a method of visual inspection, in which analysts simultaneously consider such data elements as level change, slope change, and variability in baseline and treatment data. However, over the years several concerns regarding visual inspection have emerged, including relatively low inter-rater reliabilities. This chapter reviews the arguments in favor of visual inspection as an analytic tool, and also summarizes the arguments favoring statistical analysis of single case data. The use of randomization tests is recommended, and an example is provided of its use in research with students with learning and behavioral disorders.

A longstanding question of American constitutionalism emerges out of the fact that constitutions demand fidelity. By virtue of what is the American Constitution binding? Zevit contends that many of the explanations of constitutional fidelity offered today fail to reconcile Americans’ submission to a Constitution written and ratified by generations of long ago with their claim (or aspiration) to be self-governing as a People today. Zevit introduces one type of explanation (the aptness explanation) that does not contain this flaw, and, drawing on an expansive definition of culture as a notion that encompasses the legal-political, offers the concepts of legal-political culture and baseline community as a framework for assessing the Constitution’s aptness while maintaining the People’s self-rule. She argues that constitutional aptness secures the foundations of constitutional legitimacy.

Surging global natural disasters provide incentive for risk-reducing policies and strategies. In this light, the African Union (AU) engaged a multi-stakeholder policy formulation process between 2002 and 2006, to develop a continent-wide disaster risk reduction (DRR) strategy. Drawing from secondary data, this chapter assesses the process and applies qualitative analysis instruments to critically assess the AU’s disaster policy. Linkages to the 2005 international Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) are also highlighted. The analysis reveals that Africa’s policy formulation process was belated for over a decade, with respect to international expectations. The formulation process was however largely African owned and led, culminating in a strategy document that reflected African contextual reality at the time, and aligned well with HFA fundamental goals. The applied multi-stakeholder approach enhanced a spirit of participation across levels and was central to the largely successful policy formulation process. However, targeted policy outcomes were not explicit, and poorly formulated indicators marred short- and long-term policy evaluation. Based on these results, we conclude that the African-wide DRR policy formulation processes were belated but participatory, systematic and very successful. Belated policy formulation reflects an initial inertia on the African continent, justified by past negative policy experiences and the desire to succeed. A replication of this policy formulation approach in Africa is recommended, albeit exercising more caution on policy timing, the elaboration of better monitoring and evaluation instruments and criteria. Participation should further embrace modern, risk-free (anti-COVID-19-friendly) information and communication technologies.