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The purpose of this paper is to examine analyst followings of firms starting from one year prior to their filing for Chapter 11 and as the firms progress through bankruptcy proceedings with a focus on firms receiving “Hold” or better recommendations. The authors attempt to answer questions such as what the common characteristics of the firms receiving stronger than expected recommendations one year prior to filing for bankruptcy reorganization or while in bankruptcy are, and how the market reacts to the issuance of stronger ratings for those firms.

The authors design various regressions and apply them to a total of 2,754 sell-side analyst recommendations and 325 firms that are either approaching bankruptcy filing or in the process of reorganizing. In each analysis, the authors control for several firm and performance characteristics.

The authors find that the probability of securing stronger ratings is higher for small firms and for those followed by a greater number of analysts than for large firms and firms followed by fewer analysts. The market becomes more skeptical of optimistic evaluations closer to the date of bankruptcy filing (perhaps reflecting some anticipation) and reacts more positively to rating upgrades issued during bankruptcy protection than to the upgrades issued before the bankruptcy filing.

The conclusions are based on the analysis of analyst recommendations issued shortly before Chapter 11 filings and during bankruptcy proceedings. The conclusions could be strengthened by further analysis of firms’ post-bankruptcy recovery and performance and examination of analyst recommendations issued for the firms after they emerge from Chapter 11..

Analyst security ratings that are more positive than expected are perhaps the result of superior expertise and access to private information. During bankruptcy proceedings, when information disclosure is limited, investors could greatly benefit from reports issued by security analysts.

This study contributes to the literature in a number of ways. First, the authors contribute to the literature on the analyst ratings of firms in distress by considering the period between bankruptcy filing and emergence, while the existing literature provides analysis of pre-bankruptcy recommendations and forecasts. Second, the authors focus on better than expected ratings rather than all types of ratings as the firms approach bankruptcy filings and proceed through reorganization. Finally, they evaluate how investors react to stronger than expected analyst ratings.

Chapter 12 bankruptcy filing rates from 1986 to 2001 are compared with farm bankruptcy rates from 1898 1979. Data are also presented on Chapter 12 discharge rates. Although Chapter 12 filings are reorganizations and exclude liquidations, Chapter 12 filings per farm in the 1990s exceeded filing rates in earlier decades with comparable economic conditions. Higher proportions of Chapter 12 cases filed in the 1990s failed to receive discharges than Chapter 12 cases filed in the late 1980s. This finding may indicate more debt restructurings are taking place outside of Chapter 12 and that a higher proportion of filings are “hard cases.”

This study aims to examine the linkage between bankruptcy filings and hurricane events. Several independent variables related to local district court bankruptcy filings are examined. The primary question posed is whether Category 3,4 and 5 hurricanes result in personal bankruptcy filings due to the real property and other damage that ensures.

Landfall hurricanes in Florida from 2001 through 2018 were examined by using the fully modified least square regression model. Descriptive statistics include elasticity measures that show statistics prior and post the passage of the Bankruptcy Abuse and Prevent and Consumer Protection Act of 2005 (BAPCPA).

The elasticity of housing prices was a useful statistic in explaining bankruptcy filings. Regression results indicate that bankruptcy filing occur within one year of a serious hurricane. The regression model found hurricane events and housing price trends were significant variable when predicting district court bankruptcy filings.

BAPCPA targets fraud under Chapter 7 bankruptcy filings. Unfortunately, this also had the unintended consequence of discouraging legitimated filings due to the lowering of the marginal benefit associated with filing when the “means test” is applied.

Lack of flood insurance coverage and stagnant real estate prices could limit the desirability of filing under Chapter 13 resulting in an inventory of damaged properties being foreclosed.

Prior researchers relied on a descriptive approach by using percentage rates to quantify the association between hurricane damage and bankruptcy filings. By using the fully modified regression-based approach, the study herein establishes that filings occur approximately a year after the household experiences the real property loss and identifies other casual factors that influence the decision to file.

A financially distressed homeowner considers bankruptcy filing, either Chapter 7 or Chapter 13, to delay foreclosure. On one hand, Chapter 13 filing takes longer processing time, spreads mortgage arrearages over the debt repayment period, and increases the possibility of loan modification. On the other hand, Chapter 7 filing discharges unsecured debt, which provides additional disposable income for mortgage payments. The paper aims to discuss these issues.

The author uses fixed-effects (within variation), random-effects, and generalized estimation equation models with time dummies on the panel data of US counties.

The results show that mortgage delinquency increases Chapter 7 filings, while it has positive but statistically insignificant effect on Chapter 13 filings. In addition, a county’s mortgage debt to income and proportion of mortgage borrowers increase its Chapter 7 filings.

The contribution of the paper is to assess the effect of mortgage credit on the bankruptcy chapter choice using the county-level data.

Flood damage to uninsured single-family homes shifts the entire burden of costly repairs onto the homeowner. Homeowners in the United States and in much of Europe can purchase flood insurance. The Netherlands and Asian countries generally do not offer flood insurance protection to homeowners. Uninsured households incur the entire cost of repairing/replacing properties damaged due to flooding. Homeowners’ policies do not cover damage caused by flooding. The paper examines the link between personal bankruptcy and the severity of flooding events, property prices and financial condition levels.

A fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) regression model is developed which uses personal bankruptcy filings as its dependent variable during the years 2000 through 2018. This time-series model considers the association between personal bankruptcy court filings and costly, widespread flooding events. Independent variables were selected that potentially act as mitigating factors reducing bankruptcy filings.

The FMOLS regression results found a significant, positive association between flooding events and the total number of personal bankruptcy filings. Higher flooding costs were associated with higher bankruptcy filings. The Home Price Index is inversely related to the bankruptcy dependent variable. The R-squared results indicate that 0.65% of the movement in the dependent variable personal bankruptcy filings is explained by the severity of a flooding event and other independent variables.

The severity of the flooding event is measured using dollar losses incurred by the National Flood Insurance program. A macro-case study was undertaken, but the research results would have been enhanced by examining local areas and demographic factors that may have made bankruptcy filing following a flooding event more or less likely.

The paper considers the impact of the natural disaster flooding on bankruptcy rates filings. The findings may have implications for multi-family properties as well as single-family housing. Purchasing flood insurance generally mitigates the likelihood of severe financial risk to the property owner.

Natural flood insurance is underwritten by the federal government and/or by private insurers. The financial health of private property insurers that underwrite flooding and their ability to meet losses incurred needs to be carefully scrutinized by the insured.

Prior studies analyzing the linkages existing between housing prices, natural disasters and bankruptcy used descriptive data, mostly percentages, when considering this association. The study herein posits the same questions as these prior studies but used regression analysis to analyze the linkages. The methodology enables additional independent variables to be added to the analysis.

This paper aims to examine potential causes of bankruptcy as they relate to hurricane damage. Investigate whether hurricanes result in personal bankruptcy filings due to real property damages. Strengthen existing descriptive results by using fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS).

Lagged FMOLS model is used with data from states that suffered hurricane damage between 2000 through 2020. FMOLS controls for various financial distresses that can cause bankruptcy filings.

Bankruptcy is usually filed for within one year of a hurricane. Changes in house prices and hurricane severity were significant indicators of bankruptcy filings. However, the divorce rate, commonly thought of as a primary reason for bankruptcy, is insignificant.

Data was available on a state level for the independent variables. Hurricane damage needed to be financially significant enough for inland flooding to be measurable and influential.

Establishes that financial distress comes from several sources, not just home damage. Financial distress is highly correlated with whether a home was insured. Divorce does not cause bankruptcy filings.

Federal flood insurance programs should be reexamined. Having a broader all-risk homeowner policy could reduce the number of households that file for bankruptcy after a hurricane.

Existing research uses descriptive statistics and obtains mixed findings regarding the association between hurricane damage and bankruptcy filings. The FMOLS approach provides clarity about this association.

The purpose of this paper is to examine whether the timing associated with the implementation of the health insurance-related provisions of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA) altered the presence and distribution of medical/non-medical debts accumulated by different types of bankruptcy filers.

Data were drawn from the US Bankruptcy Court’s Eastern Washington District over the years 2009, 2011 and 2014 using interval random sampling. Binary probit and Tobit analyses were used to model the existence, and distribution, of medical debts and total debts, respectively, at the time of filing. The impact of the time frame associated with the ACA was operationalized via a Chow test for structural dynamic change.

Chapter 13 filers in 2014 (post-ACA-based health exchange implementation) were more likely to report medical debts than Chapter 7 filers in the pre-intervention period, and were also more likely to report a larger proportion of outstanding debts owed to a single creditor. Filers claiming health insurance premium expenses in 2011 were (at the 10 percent significance level) more likely to report a more skewed distribution of medical debts.

The time frame associated with the implementation of the ACA impacts the distribution of medical debts among filers who have sufficient net disposable income to fund a Chapter 13 plan. The polarization of outstanding medical debts may indicate coverage gaps in existing health insurance policies, whose costs would be disproportionately borne by patients operating on thin financial margins.

Medical bankruptcies occur when an individual experiences an acute or chronic health event, and the costs of care exceed the individual’s ability to pay. In such cases, the individual typically files for bankruptcy. There is an extensive literature that estimates the prevalence of medical bankruptcy, but studies either select a population whose medical care is extremely expensive or chooses ad hoc thresholds for medical bankruptcy categorizations. In both cases, the prevalence of medical bankruptcy is biased. The purpose of this paper is to estimate the actual prevalence of medical bankruptcies in a manner that avoids these limitations.

Data are randomly drawn from a single US Bankruptcy Court district. Following the literature, an ad hoc threshold of medical debts which places the bankruptcy filer “at risk” for a medical bankruptcy is postulated. Misclassification analyses are used to estimate the likelihood of a medical bankruptcy filing while adjusting for the use of ad hoc thresholds.

The naive prevalence of medical bankruptcy is 23.1 percent, but exceeds 50 percent when accounting for misclassification. Many individuals are “ostensibly” medically bankrupt. They are already seriously indebted, and any outside financial shock, including but not limited to medical bills, can push these debtors into insolvency.

Bankruptcy is an important social safety net. An improved understanding of the types and magnitudes of medical debts which precipitate a bankruptcy filing can lead to policies that improve outcomes for bankruptcy filers and reduce the social costs of bankruptcy.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of bankruptcy announcements on the bankrupt firm's competitors' stock returns.

Starting with a sample of Chapter 11 bankruptcies from 1980 through 2008, the authors use event study methodology to examine the returns of bankrupt firm's rivals around the filing date. The authors employ a t-test of means across groups to check for differences in returns based on a competitive strategy measure (CSM). The CSM classifies industry rivals into strategic complements or substitutes. The authors also separate the sample based on traditional or non-traditional bankruptcies and conduct explanatory regressions on the abnormal returns using economically important independent variables such as the CSM, leverage and the Herfindahl index.

Similar to previous research, the paper finds that less concentrated industries and industries with high leverage suffer greater negative wealth effects when a firm within the industry announces a bankruptcy. Extending current research, the paper finds strategic interaction within the industry is an important factor in determining industry portfolio returns. Rivals characterized as strategic complements exhibit significant negative valuation effects while rivals characterized as strategic substitutes do not. Finally, the paper finds that this strategic effect is dominant when the future cash flows and outcome of the reorganization is more uncertain as substantiated by the difference between traditional and non-traditional bankruptcy filings.

This is believed to be the first empirical article to examine how the CSM affects the returns of bankrupt firms' rivals.

Periods of financial distress represent an episode during the firm’s life that requires an effective governance structure in the interests of shareholders. Changes in corporate governance structure are examined as firms approach and emerge from Chapter 11 bankruptcy. The purpose of this paper is to posit that firms alter their governance toward a more effective framework during restructuring, leading to emergence as a better performing firm.

The data set includes large firms that filed for bankruptcy between 1998 and 2013. Financial and governance characteristics prior to filing are compared to traits following emergence. The likelihood of emerging from bankruptcy is tested based on governance characteristics prior to filing and the change in these characteristics during bankruptcy.

The results show that firms use the bankruptcy process to significantly change their governance characteristics. These changes include smaller boards, greater board independence, unitary boards, the separation of the CEO and chairman positions, and changes in the ownership structure. Despite these changes, performance following emergence does not improve, and the changes in governance structure do not alter the likelihood that the firm will emerge.

This study, unlike previous studies, takes a broad look at governance characteristics for firms before and after bankruptcy. The findings imply that “better” governance, as defined in the literature, is not necessarily the pathway to better performance as many posit. The factors that influence the likelihood of emerging from bankruptcy and post-emergence performance require further study.