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1 – 10 of 575Eleni Dalla, Stephanos Papadamou, Erotokritos Varelas and Athanasios Argyropoulos
Our purpose is the examination of the effects of fiscal policy on private lending for the Eurozone countries. The emphasis is on the identification of the time path of government…
Abstract
Purpose
Our purpose is the examination of the effects of fiscal policy on private lending for the Eurozone countries. The emphasis is on the identification of the time path of government spending and bank lending.
Design/methodology/approach
Fiscal policy is a main factor of macroeconomic stability for the euro area economy. This paper, investigates the impact of government spending on bank lending. For this reason, we present a dynamic theoretical model with a perfectly competitive banking sector, estimated using panel cointegration for the Eurozone countries from 2000Q1 to 2022Q2.
Findings
Our findings highlight that, in the long run, consistent management of government spending can have a beneficial multiplicative impact on bank lending for housing and business reasons. This finding is stronger in magnitude for business versus housing lending. The high level of homogeneity of our results across Eurozone countries has positive implications for a common fiscal policy in the future. Finally, authorities should know that policy adjustments are quicker in housing lending when compared to business lending.
Originality/value
In this paper, we contribute to the existing literature, concentrating on the investigation of any existence of long-run and short-run relationships between government spending and bank lending. Additionally, our analysis allows one to investigate the contribution of each Eurozone member state in the short-run and long-run model’s dynamics, providing significant outcomes for the implementation of economic policy and the need for fiscal discipline in the Eurozone.
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This paper provides a quantitative assessment of the “asset ratio” rule defined in Turkey as part of measures taken to stimulate the economy amid the Covid-19 pandemic. The main…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper provides a quantitative assessment of the “asset ratio” rule defined in Turkey as part of measures taken to stimulate the economy amid the Covid-19 pandemic. The main objective of the new rule was to boost credit growth in the economy and provide lending for credit-constrained households and firms that are in need. A secondary aim was to shift the denomination structure of the deposits toward domestic currency. Hence, the paper focus particularly on how the policy affected the growth rate of loans and the share of domestic deposits relative to foreign ones among the commercial banks. The policy was also heavily criticized due to the possibility that it will subjugate the banking system to excessive risk. The paper explore this possible impact by measuring how much the policy affected the default risk allowances in the banking system.
Design/methodology/approach
The new policy required banks with deposits above a threshold level, i.e. large banks, to maintain a certain asset ratio. Banks with deposits below the threshold, i.e. small banks, were held exempt from it. The paper implement a difference-in difference methodology to assess the quantitative impacts of the asset ratio policy by taking large banks as the treatment group, and small banks as the control group.
Findings
Difference-in-difference estimation results suggest that the asset ratio policy resulted in a 9.6% rise in loans and an 8.4% rise in government securities. Deposits also increased, with no significant change in their composition. The policy initially generated a 7% increase in the credit risk allowances of banks in the treatment group, which vanished in the following periods. Based on all these, the paper argue that the policy was successful in providing liquidity to the economy without jeopardizing the financial stability.
Research limitations/implications
The findings of this study show that asset ratio policy is effective in increasing credit growth in countries with limited policy space such as Turkey. While saying this, the importance of the robust and prudent structure of the banking system in the economy should be underlined. Otherwise, the policy may have an unintended consequence of raising systemic risk. The policy suggestions also apply to advanced countries where the monetary policy has reached a natural limit due to the zero lower bound (ZLB). The ZLB problem encouraged these countries to use quantitative easing schemes in the aftermath of the Covid-19 crisis, just like the global financial crisis. However, it may take a long time to undo the effects of this policy on the balance sheets of central banks. In such cases, asset ratio policy can also be considered as an alternative tool for advanced economies notwithstanding the fact that the banking system should be prudent, well-capitalized and the country should have enough fiscal space. The main objective of the asset ratio policy was to help SMEs that were in urgent need of liquidity at the beginning of the crisis. The bank balance sheet data used in this paper does not contain information about the borrowers of the loans extended during the implementation of the policy. Analysis of this dimension using matched bank-firm level data will better demonstrate the success of the policy in achieving this goal. The paper address this as the main limitation of the paper and leave that analysis for future research.
Originality/value
This paper provides an important contribution to the literature by assessing a new unique policy whose objective is to stimulate loans and mitigate the impact of the Covid-19 crisis on the economy. The policy in question is predicted to have effects on the asset and liability structure and risk exposure of the banking system in Turkey. The quantitative analysis in this study estimates these impacts and discusses the effectiveness of the new policy in providing a relief for firms and households in need. Whether or not the policy caused a disruption in the sound structure of the banking system in Turkey is another question addressed in the paper.
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Robert Mwanyepedza and Syden Mishi
The study aims to estimate the short- and long-run effects of monetary policy on residential property prices in South Africa. Over the past decades, there has been a monetary…
Abstract
Purpose
The study aims to estimate the short- and long-run effects of monetary policy on residential property prices in South Africa. Over the past decades, there has been a monetary policy shift, from targeting money supply and exchange rate to inflation. The shifts have affected residential property market dynamics.
Design/methodology/approach
The Johansen cointegration approach was used to estimate the effects of changes in monetary policy proxies on residential property prices using quarterly data from 1980 to 2022.
Findings
Mortgage finance and economic growth have a significant positive long-run effect on residential property prices. The consumer price index, the inflation targeting framework, interest rates and exchange rates have a significant negative long-run effect on residential property prices. The Granger causality test has depicted that exchange rate significantly influences residential property prices in the short run, and interest rates, inflation targeting framework, gross domestic product, money supply consumer price index and exchange rate can quickly return to equilibrium when they are in disequilibrium.
Originality/value
There are limited arguments whether the inflation targeting monetary policy framework in South Africa has prevented residential property market boom and bust scenarios. The study has found that the implementation of inflation targeting framework has successfully reduced booms in residential property prices in South Africa.
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The purpose of this study is to explore the possible impact of banking market structure on the idiosyncratic risk of financially dependent firms in China.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this study is to explore the possible impact of banking market structure on the idiosyncratic risk of financially dependent firms in China.
Design/methodology/approach
The study analyzes firm-level data for China from 1999 to 2018 using a two-step dynamic panel system generalized method of moments (GMM).
Findings
The findings imply that bank competition lowers corporate risk, particularly among firms that are highly dependent on external funding for their financing needs. The findings are consistent with alternative indicators of competition, corporate risk, and financial dependence. The analysis of the transmission mechanism – the channel through which competition affects corporate risk – reveals that bank competition reduces corporate risk by curtailing financing constraints faced by firms.
Research limitations/implications
The competition-enhancing policy should consider the optimum level of bank competition for financial and economic stability. Further research is necessary to define the “desirable” or “optimum” level of bank competition.
Practical implications
In China, where the banking sector is still highly concentrated, the findings of this study call for policies aimed at encouraging healthy competition among banks. Nevertheless, such a policy must also consider the extent of bank competition that is optimal for the economy, particularly for financial and economic stability.
Originality/value
The paper provides the first evidence of the possible linkage between bank competition and corporate risk in China.
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Ayuba Napari, Rasim Ozcan and Asad Ul Islam Khan
For close to two decades, the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ) has been preparing to launch a second monetary union within the ECOWAS region. This study aims to determine the…
Abstract
Purpose
For close to two decades, the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ) has been preparing to launch a second monetary union within the ECOWAS region. This study aims to determine the impact such a unionised monetary regime will have on financial stability as represented by the nonperforming loan ratios of Ghana in a counterfactual framework.
Design/methodology/approach
This study models nonperforming loan ratios as dependent on the monetary policy rate and the business cycle. The study then used historical data to estimate the parameters of the nonperforming loan ratio response function using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach. The estimated parameters are further used to estimate the impact of several counterfactual unionised monetary policy rates on the nonperforming loan ratios and its volatility of Ghana. As robustness check, the Least Absolute Shrinkage Selection Operator (LASSO) regression is also used to estimate the nonperforming loan ratios response function and to predict nonperforming loans under the counterfactual unionised monetary policy rates.
Findings
The results of the counterfactual study reveals that the apparent cost of monetary unification is much less than supposed with a monetary union likely to dampen volatility in non-performing loans in Ghana. As such, the WAMZ members should increase the pace towards monetary unification.
Originality/value
The paper contributes to the existing literature by explicitly modelling nonperforming loan ratios as dependent on monetary policy and the business cycle. The study also settles the debate on the financial stability cost of a monetary union due to the nonalignment of business cycles and economic structures.
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The purpose of this study is to examine the effect of Islamic banks (IBs) and macroeconomic variables on economic growth in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this study is to examine the effect of Islamic banks (IBs) and macroeconomic variables on economic growth in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Malaysia, Qatar, Bahrain and Bangladesh.
Design/methodology/approach
Based on these criteria, 672 observations from 24 IBs in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Malaysia, Qatar, Bahrain and Bangladesh were chosen for further investigation. Time series analysis is a well-known method for determining if model variables are stationary and how long-term relationships function through cointegration analysis. This study uses impulse response function (IRF) and variance decomposition (VD) methodologies to demonstrate how each macroeconomic variable shock influences the short-term dynamic path of all system variables.
Findings
Islamic banking promotes economic growth, especially in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Malaysia, Qatar, Bahrain and Bangladesh. The findings of the Islamic banking VDC test have a direct and long-term effect on economic growth.
Research limitations/implications
The literature on this topic can be improved in a number of ways, including by adopting a more robust method to analyze over a longer time frame. By researching specific financing in various areas of the economy, one can gain a deeper understanding of Islamic financing. This will enable the identification of sectors that contribute to economic expansion. Future research should examine combining nations with pure Islam and dual-banking systems to acquire sufficient data.
Practical implications
This paper has practice and research implications. It recommends adopting the nation’s successful experiment with the Islamic banking system as a model for attaining economic growth through Islamic financing. To replicate this successful experiment, government-based decision-makers and monetary policy experts must collaborate to make Islamic money flows simple and rapid through financial channels that enhance economic growth.
Originality/value
The study of the contribution of Islamic banking to economic growth in developing nations, particularly those with the highest total assets (TAs) and total deposits (TDs) in the world, remains of modest value. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study to empirically assess the impact of IBs in developing nations, particularly those with the highest TAs and TDs in the world, on economic growth as measured by gross domestic product (GDP).
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This study presents a systematic review of the literature on monetary policy and corporate investment together with bibliometric analysis.
Abstract
Purpose
This study presents a systematic review of the literature on monetary policy and corporate investment together with bibliometric analysis.
Design/methodology/approach
This study selected 455 articles from databases, Scopus and Web of science and the papers are reviewed systematically to identify their theoretical and empirical contributions.
Findings
The results reveal that monetary policy can influence corporate investment. Post to the economic crisis (2008), there is an exponential growth in the number of publications. Berger, A., and Hubbard are the two prominent authors based on the highest citation score, whereas Marquez, R., and Vermuelen, P. are the two prolific authors, subject to their highest h-index. Journal of Banking & Finance was the top journal (total citations = 1482) and 5 publications.
Practical implications
This study positively contributes to the comprehensive understanding of corporate investment, monetary policy transmission and firm capital structure choices.
Originality/value
To the best of the author’s knowledge, this is the first study that conducts a systematic review of the influence of monetary policy on corporate investment.
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The purpose of this paper is to assess the effects of prompt corrective action on bank risk and returns in an empirical framework.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to assess the effects of prompt corrective action on bank risk and returns in an empirical framework.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper uses a difference-in-difference specification to analyse whether and how PCA affects bank risk and returns. As part of robustness, the analysis also uses a fixed effects specification with Driscoll–Kraay standard errors to account for serial correlation and cross-sectional dependence.
Findings
The findings reveal that banks under PCA framework contribute less to systemic risk and exhibit higher market valuation. These findings differ across recapitalised versus non-recapitalised banks and for banks with differing asset quality, capital and profitability. The overall price impact is a decline in lending rates and deposit costs.
Originality/value
To the best of the author’s understanding, this is one of the early studies in the Indian context to carefully examine the linkage between PCA and bank behaviour.
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Mugabil Isayev, Farid Irani and Amirreza Attarzadeh
The purpose of this paper is to fill the momentous gap by explicitly investigating the asymmetric effects of monetary policy (MP) on non-bank financial intermediation (NBFI…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to fill the momentous gap by explicitly investigating the asymmetric effects of monetary policy (MP) on non-bank financial intermediation (NBFI) assets.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors utilized panel data from 29 countries for the period of 2012–2020 and used the quantile regression estimation. In addition to simultaneous quantile regression (SQR), the authors also employ quantile regression with clustered data (Parente and Silva, 2016) and the generalized quantile regression (GQR) method (Powell, 2020).
Findings
The empirical results show a significant heterogeneous impact of MP. While there is a positive relationship between MP and NBFI assets (“waterbed effect”) at lower quantiles of NBFI assets, at middle and higher quantiles, MP has a negative impact on NBFI assets (“search for yield” effect). The authors further find that negative impact strengthens as the quantile levels of NBFI assets rise from mid to high. Findings also reveal that “procyclicality” (except higher quantile) and “institutional demand” hypotheses hold. However, regarding “regulatory arbitrage,” mixed results are observed indicating the impact of Basel III requirements.
Originality/value
Previous empirical studies have concentrated on either the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) framework or conditional mean regression approaches and delivered mixed findings of the MP effects on NBFI. The current paper takes a step toward dealing with this issue by deploying quantile regression methodology, which shows the impact of MP on NBFI at different conditional distributions (quantiles) of NBFI assets instead of just NBFI's conditional mean distribution.
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Salvatore Capasso, Oreste Napolitano and Ana Laura Viveros Jiménez
The idea of this study is to provide a solid Financial Condition Index (FCI) that allows the monetary transmission policy to be monitored in a country which in recent decades has…
Abstract
Purpose
The idea of this study is to provide a solid Financial Condition Index (FCI) that allows the monetary transmission policy to be monitored in a country which in recent decades has suffered from major financial and monetary crises.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors construct three FCIs for Mexico to analyse the role of financial asset prices in formulating monetary policy under an inflation-targeting regime. Using monthly data from 1995 to 2017, the authors estimate FCIs with two different methodologies and build the index by taking into account the mechanism of transmission of monetary policy and incorporating the most relevant financial variables.
Findings
This study’s results show that, likewise for developing countries as Mexico, an FCI could be a useful tool for managing monetary policy in reducing macroeconomic fluctuations.
Originality/value
Apart from building a predictor of possible financial stress, the authors construct an FCI for a central bank that pursues inflation targeting and to analyse the role of financial asset prices in formulating monetary policy.
Highlights
We construct three FCIs for Mexico to analyse the role of financial asset prices in formulating monetary policy under an inflation-targeting regime.
The FCIs are based on (1) a vector autoregression model (VAR); (2) an autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) and (3) a factor-augmented vector autoregression model (FAVAR).
FCI could become a new target for monetary policy within a hybrid inflation-targeting framework.
FCI could be a good tool for managing monetary policy in developing countries with a low-inflation environment.
We construct three FCIs for Mexico to analyse the role of financial asset prices in formulating monetary policy under an inflation-targeting regime.
The FCIs are based on (1) a vector autoregression model (VAR); (2) an autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) and (3) a factor-augmented vector autoregression model (FAVAR).
FCI could become a new target for monetary policy within a hybrid inflation-targeting framework.
FCI could be a good tool for managing monetary policy in developing countries with a low-inflation environment.
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