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This paper attempts to analysis the credit risk at the angle of industrial and macroeconomic factor using grey incidence analysis method.

Credit asset quality problem is one of the obstacles limiting the further development of commercial banks; the research on credit risk becomes an important part of the implementation of a commercial bank's risk management. Different industries may have different effects on the credit risk of commercial bank. This paper proposes finding out the different incidences between industries and credit risk, as well as macroeconomics. Incidence identification method is established to investigate whether the industry and macroeconomic factor could affect an impaired loan ratio of a bank using the grey incidence analysis method.

The results indicate that the impaired loan ratio differs with diverse industry's influence and the macroeconomics also affect it. From the angle of the industry, the result can also determine the risk deviation scope in the grey risk control process which offers new content and ideas within the grey risk control.

Under the guidance of the principle of “differential treatment, differential control”, this research will help to strengthen the implementation of differentiated credit policy, focus on guiding and promoting the optimization of credit structure, so as to maintain a reasonable size of credit facilities and build a steady currency credit system.

The paper succeeds in finding the top five influent industries compared with others by using one of the newest developed theories: grey systems theory.

Bank management, from a finance theory perspective, is generally acknowledged to involve the management of four major balance sheet risks: liquidity risk, interest rate risk, capital risk and credit risk (Hempel et al, 1989). Of these, credit risk has commonly been identified as the key risk in terms of its influence on bank performance (Sinkey, 1992, p.279) and bank failure (Spadaford, 1988).

This study aims to examine the role of financial inclusion and institutional factors such as corruption and the rule of law (RL) on the credit risk and stability of banks.

The study considers a sample of 61 developing countries and uses very robust estimation techniques that allow controlling for endogeneity, heteroskedasticity and serial correlation, such as instrumental variables method in two-stage least squares (IV-2SLS), instrumental variables generalized method of moments (IV-GMM), as well as system of generalized methods of moments in two stages (Sys-2GMM).

The results confirm that financial inclusion and strengthening the RL can significantly contribute to reducing credit risk and improving the financial stability of banks; in contrast, the authors find that weak control of corruption aggravates credit risk. In addition, they found that greater competitiveness in the banking sector increases credit risk.

This study supports the need to promote financial inclusion and strengthen institutional factors to improve the stability of the banking sector, as well as promote general well-being in the economy.

This study contributes to the scarce literature by simultaneously using institutional factors such as corruption and the RL and macroeconomic variables such as economic growth and inflation in the relationship between financial inclusion and the banking sector, as well as considering competitiveness as an explanatory factor for banks’ credit risk and stability.

Introduction: Commercial banks play a vital role in the global economy, facilitating economic growth and providing essential financial services. As key intermediaries between savers and borrowers, these institutions operate in a dynamic and complex environment characterised by various risk factors that can significantly impact their profitability and overall stability. Understanding the interconnected relationships between credit risk, interest rate risk, liquidity risk, and profitability is crucial for effective risk management strategies and the development of appropriate regulatory frameworks.

Purpose: Commercial banks play a critical role in the global economy by facilitating economic growth and providing financial services. This study examines the interconnected relationships between credit risk, interest rate risk, liquidity risk, and profitability in commercial banking.

Methodology: The sample consists of licenced scheduled commercial banks on the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) from 2015 to 2022. Using the Smart PLS-SEM 3.0 path analysis technique, the study evaluates the combined influence of these risk factors on profitability and provides evidence-based recommendations for risk management strategies.

Findings: The findings can assist banks in enhancing their risk management practices, and regulators in developing appropriate regulatory frameworks. By understanding the key risk factors and their impact on profitability, banks and regulators can mitigate risks, enhance transparency, and promote stability within the banking sector.

Significance/value: The value of this study lies in its focus on the interconnectedness of risk factors, profitability, and the potential implications for decision-making, risk management strategies, regulatory frameworks, and the overall stability of the commercial banking sector.

Banking sectors in central, eastern and southeastern European (CESEE) countries have gone through a transformation from state-ownership and central planning to private ownership and market-oriented decision making during the first decade of the 21st century. However, financial markets in these countries are still developing and the private sector is highly exposed to changes in exchange rates, especially in terms of the balance sheet channel. The fact that these banking sectors are predominantly owned by eurozone banks makes them vulnerable to macroeconomic tensions in the European union. This analysis investigates macroeconomic determinants of the realisation of credit risk in the loan portfolio of banks in Serbia using a panel data set covering the period from 2008Q3 to 2012Q2. Three different panel methods were applied separately for loans to households and loans to enterprises. The results indicate that a deteriorating business cycle and exchange rate depreciation led to the worsening of the quality of banks’ loan portfolio in Serbia in the period under review. In addition, statistical evidence indicates that the CPI inflation additionally affected the quality of loans. Furthermore, we find that household loan portfolios are also sensitive to changes in the short-run interest rates. As for policy implications, the importance of international cooperation between regulators is rising. A very important topic for such cooperation should be the risk-taking channel between countries with significant differences in interest rates and degree of riskiness. The interrelationship between the exchange rate and credit risk should be a major focus of both domestic macro- and micro-prudential policy – banks should be motivated to pay more attention to the possible negative spillovers when making credit decisions. Also, further development of the domestic primary and secondary T-bills market would help reducing unhedged FX risks.

The purpose of this study aims to examine the effect of fintech on pre- and post-financing credit risks faced by the Islamic banks.

This research uses primary data for fintech awareness and adoption and secondary data of various financial and economic variables from 2009 to 2021. It uses baseline regression to identify moderation of fintech controlling gross domestic products, size, return on assets and leverage. The findings are confirmed using robustness against key variable bias. It also uses a dynamic panel two-stage generalized method of moments for endogeneity.

The study finds that the fintech awareness and adoption are not the same across all Islamic countries. The Asia Pacific region is far ahead of the other two regions where Indonesia is ahead in terms of fintech awareness and adoption, and Malaysia is ahead in terms of reaping its benefits in credit risk management. Fintech affects prefinancing credit risk significantly more than postfinancing credit risk. Also, the study finds that Islamic banks suffer from the problem of “Adverse selection under Shariah compliance.”

This research invites regulators to introduce fintech in Islamic banks on war footing. Similar studies can be conducted on the role of other risks such as operational and market risks. Fintech will also help in improving the risk profile and stability of Islamic banks against systemic risks and financial crises.

This research has variety of originalities. First, it is the pioneering study that addresses the effect of fintech pre- and post-financing credit risks in Islamic banks. Second, it identifies “Adverse selection under Shariah compliance” for Islamic banks. Third, it helps identify how fintech can be useful in reducing credit risk that will help in reducing capital charge for regulatory capital.

This paper aims to assess the impact of credit risk on the market values of private banks during the corona pandemic.

This study is identifying critical issues of credit risk at six great private banks. A conceptual framework is designed based on the Tobin Q model for investigating study hypotheses. Quantitative financial analysis methods have been used for processing data, such as financial ratios, arithmetic mean and multiple linear regression.

The most important result of this study is the lack of influence of credit risk on the market value of selected banks. Because the dimensions of credit risk have critical importance in increasing or decreasing the market value, these banks must continue to adopt quantitative financial analysis to measure credit risks to avoid their risk.

This study elaborates the need for financial indicators to help assess the market value of banks during the economic crises caused by the closure of commercial institutions during the corona pandemic. There is continued increase in bank credit to support these institutions, borrowers and cash withdrawals, which may affect their market reputation.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the expected outcomes, both of positive and negative returns occurred by shariá credit instruments in global Islamic banks. The annual panel data from 2005 to 2012 is collected from 40 Islamic banks from 12 countries and value at risk (VaR) technique is employed in the investigation process. The findings of this study indicate several outcomes: first, majority of Islamic banks use debt-based financing (DBF) and avoid asset-based financing (ABF) due to the lack of secured rate of fixed returns and collateral. Second, the ABF financing shows the positive returns. Third, interestingly, DBF financing faces higher credit risk compared to ABF even DBF secures its financing through tight policy implementation. Finally, this paper comes up with policy recommendations for the further reduction of credit risks and improvement of bankers’ confidence level in implementing the ABF financing policy.

VaR on panel data.

Shariá credit instruments play an important role.

Data findings.

Fully original.

This study investigates the relationship between credit booms and bank risk in Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries, with credit information sharing acting as a moderator.

The authors use a two-step System Generalized Method of Moments (SGMM) estimator on a sample of 79 listed banks in 5 developing ASEAN countries: Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam in the period 2006–2019. In addition, the authors perform robustness tests with different proxies for credit booms and bank risk. The data are collected on an annual basis.

Bank risk is positively related to credit booms and is negatively associated with credit information sharing. Further, credit information sharing reduces the detrimental effect of credit booms on bank stability. The authors find that both public credit registries and private credit bureaus are effective in enhancing bank stability in ASEAN countries. These results are robust to regression models with alternative proxies for credit booms and bank risk.

Banks in ASEAN countries tend to have strong lending growth to support the economy, but this could be detrimental to stability of the sector. Credit information sharing schemes should be encouraged because these schemes might enable growth of credit without compromising bank stability. Therefore, policymakers could promote private credit bureaus (PCB) and public credit registries (PCR) to realize their benefits. The authors' research focuses on developing ASEAN countries, but future research could provide more evidence by expanding this study to other emerging economies. In-depth interviews and surveys with bankers and regulatory bodies about these concerns could provide additional insights in the future.

The study is the first to examine the role of PCB and PCR in alleviating the negative impact of credit booms on bank risk. Furthermore, the authors use both accounting-based and market-based risk measures to provide a fuller view of the impact. Finally, there is little evidence on the link between credit booms, credit information sharing and bank risk in ASEAN, so the authors aim to fill this gap.