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Nuclear proliferation in Asia is basically rooted in psycho-cultural complexes of their ruling elites who are engaged in a frantic search for national security, national identity, and influence by developing n-weapon capability. A propensity for acquiring a credible nuclear deterrence as a security guarantee against any potential threat from adverse or hostile neighbours, political and military elites in volatile regions such as South Asia, Middle East, and Northeast Asia are perpetually indulged in producing artificially insecurity syndrome among their people to legitimize the imperative of nuclear weapon building programme. Inter-Asian regional nuclear collaboration, for instance, between North Korea and Pakistan, between North Korea and Myanmar, between Iran and Pakistan, between Pakistan and China are alarming signs of fomenting the nuclear armament and missile race in Asia. Alexei Arbatov, Director of the Centre of International Security, Institute of the World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences; writes that with the ceasing of ideological and geopolitical rivalry between the two superpowers, nuclear proliferation has gained momentum in the horizontal proliferation in countries of volatile regions of Asia – India, Pakistan, Israel, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Libya – with the flawed support systems of the NPT, IAEA, and Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG). For instance, NPT does not offer any tangible benefits to those countries renouncing acquisition of nuclear weapons, nor does it “envision serious punishment for military nuclear activities” (Arbatov, 2004).

In many developing countries and some developed countries, government by coalition is the rule. In the Indian central government for the last two or three decades, there was a coalition of the left or right: on the right, the BJP and like-minded party; and on the left, the secular Congress party, like-minded parties, and the Communist party. This coalition of government politics is very much guided by both domestic and international situations. For example, Congress, the major party in the ruling coalition, is in favour of the USA–India nuclear deal. It was not finalized due to the opposition of its coalition partners, particularly the Communist party. As a result, the deal is almost dead. There are many examples in economic policies that are greatly influenced by coalition politics. The same situation exists in state politics. There is considerable scope in using the material in coalition theory literature to determine when and what type of coalition will form and break the pay off, etc. The subject discussed below of such a situation is based on a grossly outdated scenario. We hope a more up-to-date and sophisticated study will be available not only for India, but also for other countries.

The left-hand side of Eq. (1) denotes the rate of change of Indian military expenditure. k and n are positive constants, which, following Richardson's terminology, can be called “defence coefficients.” It is difficult to obtain data for China's defence expenditure. If they are not available, we can try to employ some index numbers or use some proxy variables. This Eq. (1) represents the mistrust and suspicion on the part of India against Pakistan and China. It is true that mistrust is a qualitative aspect of a state of mind. However, we assume that military expenditure is a satisfactory yardstick for measuring it.

Pakistan is quite often described as a failing state. Some scholars have described it as a “failed state.” Without indulging into its controversial part, let us see the state of affairs in Pakistan first. Pakistan has been under a mixed spell of military rule and controlled democracy. President Pervez Musharraf has learnt from the legacy of military rule of his predecessors that the best bet to remain in power is to blame democratic leaders for their failure to govern the country in the interest of the people. Musharraf had grabbed power through a bloodless military coup by dislodging the democratically elected government of Nawaz Sharif in October 1999 under a similar alibi. Even after the lapse of more than 8 years of his rule, there has been no change in terms of poverty eradication, economic development, living standards, or internal security. On the contrary, things have taken on a much uglier shape.

Political transition to democracy is hampered by human rights abuses by the military junta against ethnic minorities that constitute a third of the country's population. Human rights violations are unprecedented in terms of human suffering, extra judicial killings, torture, forced labour and displacement, rape and rapine. The situation has further deteriorated due to a bloody conflict between the armed opposition groups from ethnic minority states and central authorities. Armed opposition groups are demanding a greater autonomy, which the military government has been denying. Although the military government signed over a dozen cease-fires with armed groups, there has been no real progress to reach a permanent political solution. As a result, human rights abuses are on the increase, especially in Shan, Kayin (Karen), Kayah (Karenni), and Mon minority states where the military junta's army is engaged in counter-insurgency operations against armed groups.

The geopolitical scenario in South Asia has of course assumed a new dimension at least in three fields: ethno-cultural, strategic configuration and psychological. In the ethno-cultural field, South Asia has become highly volatile and explosive. In most of the states of South Asia, ethno-cultural conflicts exist: for instance, in Sri Lanka where the LTTE militant group is engaged in a bloody warfare vis-à-vis the Sri Lankan State; in Pakistan Shia-Sunni conflicts and the Mohajir Qaumi movement for autonomy; and in India the religious fundamentalism due to the rise of Hindutva that has created a panic among minority groups like Christianity. In Nepal, the Communist Party (ML) is indulged in the worst kind of political violence. These trends show the upper hand of ethno-cultural elements in the geopolitical setting of South Asia.