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Controlled foreign company (“CFC”) legislation, governed by section 9D of the Income Tax Act 58 of 1962, serves as anti‐avoidance legislation in South Africa’s residence‐based tax system. Section 9D provides for the calculation of a deemed amount which must be included in the South African resident’s income. This deemed amount is calculated with reference to the net income for the CFC’s foreign tax year. Section 9D(6) provides for this deemed amount, which is denominated in the foreign financial reporting currency, to be translated into South African rand by applying the average exchange rate for that year of assessment. The legislation refers to the South African resident’s year of assessment and not the CFC’s foreign tax year. It is submitted that the average exchange rate for the CFC’s foreign tax year should be used for translation. The author therefore disputes the period to be used in calculating the average exchange rate.

A novel approach to modeling exchange rates is presented based on a set of models distinguished by the drivers of the rate and regime duration. The models are combined into a “meta model” using model averaging and non-nested hypothesis-testing techniques. The meta model accommodates periods of stability and slowly evolving or abruptly changing regimes involving multiple drivers. Estimated meta models for five exchange rates provide a compelling characterization of their determination over the last 40 years or so, identifying “phases” during which the influences from policy and financial market responses to news succumb to equilibrating macroeconomic pressures and vice versa.

Considers how membership of a Single European Currency would affect Single European Currency members’ national economic sovereignty. First defines concisely national economic sovereignty. Explores economic life in the Single European Currency. A picture of a converged Single European Currency area economy emerges. Then considers what influence Single European Currency members would have on the Single European Currency area’s macroeconomic policy, finding members’ influence, their national economic sovereignty, depends on the Single European Currency’s institutional structure. Explores three institutional structures, a Council of Ministers approach, a federal approach and the Maastricht plan, the European Union’s (EU’s) actual plan for the Single European Currency. Finds that both a federal and a Council of Ministers approach appear to offer Single European Currency members some degree of national economic sovereignty, while the Maastricht plan appears to offer Single European Currency members very little national economic sovereignty. Analyses the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM), to assess what national economic sovereignty EU countries currently enjoy. It becomes apparent that in order to prevent excessive exchange rate instability EU countries must set their monetary policies to the satisfaction of the Financial Market, EU free capital mobility undermining EU countries’ national economic sovereignty. The ERM’s and the Maastricht plan’s preference for price stability over democratic accountability leads to an investigation of the significance of a economy’s average inflation rate. Finds evidence of a negative correlation between EU countries average inflation rates and their private sectors level of profitability. Concludes by asking if a Single European Currency, which favours enforcement of price stability over democratic accountability, is good for European business or not.

A plethora of studies suggests the pricing decisions depend on product substitutability, costs, market structures, and the magnitude of exchange rate uncertainty in the international setting. Taking a departure from existing literature, this paper examines the average degree of exchange rate pass‐through to the prices of export product under low to high exchange rate volatility. A panel data estimation method is performed using the annual US export data to 69 export destinations across 111 four‐digit Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) industries. An average zero or insignificant pass‐through estimate for all industries in the high exchange‐rate‐fluctuation sub‐sample confirms the hypothesis. In this period of high exchange risk, the possible high hedging engagements disconnect the relationship between exchange rate movements and export pricing.

This paper examines the opportunity cost of applying simple averages in formulating the Department of Defense (DoD) budget for foreign exchange rates. Using out-of-sample validation, we evaluate the status quo of a center-weighted average against a Random Walk model, ARIMA, forward rates, futures contracts, and a private firm's forecasts over two time periods extending from Fiscal Year (FY) 1991 to FY 2014. The results strongly indicate that four of the alternative methods outperform the status quo over the shorter time period, and three methods for both time periods. Furthermore, a non-parametric comparison of the median error demonstrates statistical similarities between the four alternative methods over the short term. Overall, the paper recommends using the futures option prices to decrease forecast error by 3.23% and avoiding a $34 million opportunity cost.

This chapter conducts an event study of 30 quantitative easing (QE) announcements made by 21 central banks on daily government bond yields and bilateral US dollar exchange rates in March and April 2020, in the midst of the global financial turmoil triggered by the COVID-19 outbreak. The chapter also investigates the transmission of innovations to long-term interest rates in a standard GVAR model estimated with quarterly pre-COVID-19 data. The authors find that QE has not lost effectiveness in advanced economies and that its international transmission is consistent with the working of long-run uncovered interest rate parity and a large dollar shortage shock during the COVID-19 period. In emerging markets, the QE impact on bond yields is much stronger and its transmission to exchange rates is qualitatively different than in advanced economies. The GVAR evidence that the authors report illustrates the Fed’s pivotal role in the global transmission of long-term interest rate shocks, but also the ample scope for country-specific interventions to affect local financial market conditions, even after controlling for common factors and spillovers from other countries. The GVAR evidence also shows that QE interventions can have sizable real effects on output driven by a very persistent impact on long-term interest rates.

To study the determinants and effects of “Operational” exchange rate exposure resulting from the mismatch between cost and revenues of the firms by using data on 500 Indian firms.

We conduct detailed empirical analysis of the determinants of firm level exposure and their impact using panel regression techniques and conduct several robustness tests to confirm the validity of these results.

Among other factors, exchange rate volatility appears as a significant determinant of average firm level exposure with the direction of relationship supporting the presence of “Moral Hazard” in firm’s risk-taking behavior. Further large “operational” exposure is associated with significantly lower output growth, profitability, and capital expenditure during episodes of large currency depreciation at the firm level.

This paper leaves several questions to be answered. Further research is called for to explore the nature of distortions in the production process encouraged by exchange rate volatility and their impact on firm level productivity. Looking at the relationship between the use of financial and operational hedges is another fruitful area of future research.

Our results have important implications for policy makers worried about mitigating the impact of exogenous shocks. Implicit and explicit guarantees with regards to the value of exchange rate tend to raise the vulnerability of the economy to exchange rate shocks at same time that they encourage capital expenditures and possibly output growth during “normal” times. Our findings indicate that the policy makers must take into account the incentive effects of their intervention in foreign exchange markets.

Unlike the existing papers in the literature, we use a measure of “operational” currency exposure based on foreign currency revenues and costs of firms. In most of the existing papers the focus is on the mismatch between the currency denomination of assets and liabilities. Little attention has been paid to the currency mismatch between costs and revenues of the firms. Such “operational” mismatches are potentially equally important and deserve attention of policy makers and academics alike.

The authors evaluate financial stability and capital flows management objectives of capital controls in the context of four capital control events: removing or imposing controls on capital inflows and removing or imposing controls on capital outflows. The authors use synthetic control method to solve the endogeneity problem stemmed from the timing of capital control implementation. The authors find new evidence that capital controls are not consistently effective in reaching financial stability outcomes but are consistent in reaching capital flows management outcomes. The authors compare our results to estimates using difference-in-difference (DID) and carry out placebo analysis. Finally, we use synthetic DID to correct for the parallel trend bias and show that the results still hold.

The current work studies the cause, process, and effects of financial reform in 10 countries in Eastern Asia for the period of 1993–2002, especially focusing upon comparisons between pre- and post-Asia financial crisis. This study utilizes Mann–Whitney U test and Intervention Analysis to explore the different effects of the changes of GDP, stock index, exchange rate, CPI index, and the changes of the unemployment rate before and after the Asia financial crisis. It shows the consistent relationship between stock index, exchange rate, CPI index, and the changes of unemployment rate.

The purpose of the paper is to show that order flows determine exchange rate dynamics because they carry information about nonfundamental factors besides macroeconomic fundamentals.

To understand the role of nonfundamental factors in driving order flows, this study uses two approaches. Initially, Evans and Rime (2016) VAR framework is followed to study the incremental information transmitted by order flow compared to macroeconomic variables. Then, the study uses the settings in which Rime et al. (2010) conduct their empirical work, which gives the researcher more latitude in specifying the identity of the factors that drive order flows.

The findings evidence that order flows explain the dynamics of the TND/USD exchange rate. The results highlight that order flows convey information about technical strategies, the currency systematic factors and political risk. This study also documents the presence of a Ramadan effect in exchange rates and order flows.

This study makes four contributions to the literature. First, it complements the literature on the FX microstructure of emerging markets. The study investigates the information content carried by order flows, while the previous literature has focused solely on examining the explanatory power of order flows to explain exchange rates in emerging countries. The second contribution is that the study demonstrates formally that order flows determine exchange rates because they transmit information about nonfundamental factors. Third, this study is the first to examine whether order flows convey information about technical analysis. Four, the study relates order flow to nontraditional factors that are relevant to the Tunisian FX market.