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1 – 10 of over 3000Syed Zulfiqar Ali Shah, Maqsood Ahmad and Faisal Mahmood
This paper aims to clarify the mechanism by which heuristics influences the investment decisions of individual investors, actively trading on the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX)…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to clarify the mechanism by which heuristics influences the investment decisions of individual investors, actively trading on the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX), and the perceived efficiency of the market. Most studies focus on well-developed financial markets and very little is known about investors’ behaviour in less developed financial markets or emerging markets. The present study contributes to filling this gap in the literature.
Design/methodology/approach
Investors’ heuristic biases have been measured using a questionnaire, containing numerous items, including indicators of speculators, investment decisions and perceived market efficiency variables. The sample consists of 143 investors trading on the PSX. A convenient, purposively sampling technique was used for data collection. To examine the relationship between heuristic biases, investment decisions and perceived market efficiency, hypotheses were tested by using correlation and regression analysis.
Findings
The paper provides empirical insights into the relationship of heuristic biases, investment decisions and perceived market efficiency. The results suggest that heuristic biases (overconfidence, representativeness, availability and anchoring) have a markedly negative impact on investment decisions made by individual investors actively trading on the PSX and on perceived market efficiency.
Research limitations/implications
The primary limitation of the empirical review is the tiny size of the sample. A larger sample would have given more trustworthy results and could have empowered a more extensive scope of investigation.
Practical implications
The paper encourages investors to avoid relying on heuristics or their feelings when making investments. It provides awareness and understanding of heuristic biases in investment management, which could be very useful for decision makers and professionals in financial institutions, such as portfolio managers and traders in commercial banks, investment banks and mutual funds. This paper helps investors to select better investment tools and avoid repeating expensive errors, which occur due to heuristic biases. They can improve their performance by recognizing their biases and errors of judgment, to which we are all prone, resulting in a more efficient market. So, it is necessary to focus on a specific investment strategy to control “mental mistakes” by investors, due to heuristic biases.
Originality/value
The current study is the first of its kind, focusing on the link between heuristics, individual investment decisions and perceived market efficiency within the specific context of Pakistan.
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This article aims to systematically review the literature published in recognized journals focused on cognitive heuristic-driven biases and their effect on investment management…
Abstract
Purpose
This article aims to systematically review the literature published in recognized journals focused on cognitive heuristic-driven biases and their effect on investment management activities and market efficiency. It also includes some of the research work on the origins and foundations of behavioral finance, and how this has grown substantially to become an established and particular subject of study in its own right. The study also aims to provide future direction to the researchers working in this field.
Design/methodology/approach
For doing research synthesis, a systematic literature review (SLR) approach was applied considering research studies published within the time period, i.e. 1970–2021. This study attempted to accomplish a critical review of 176 studies out of 256 studies identified, which were published in reputable journals to synthesize the existing literature in the behavioral finance domain-related explicitly to cognitive heuristic-driven biases and their effect on investment management activities and market efficiency as well as on the origins and foundations of behavioral finance.
Findings
This review reveals that investors often use cognitive heuristics to reduce the risk of losses in uncertain situations, but that leads to errors in judgment; as a result, investors make irrational decisions, which may cause the market to overreact or underreact – in both situations, the market becomes inefficient. Overall, the literature demonstrates that there is currently no consensus on the usefulness of cognitive heuristics in the context of investment management activities and market efficiency. Therefore, a lack of consensus about this topic suggests that further studies may bring relevant contributions to the literature. Based on the gaps analysis, three major categories of gaps, namely theoretical and methodological gaps, and contextual gaps, are found, where research is needed.
Practical implications
The skillful understanding and knowledge of the cognitive heuristic-driven biases will help the investors, financial institutions and policymakers to overcome the adverse effect of these behavioral biases in the stock market. This article provides a detailed explanation of cognitive heuristic-driven biases and their influence on investment management activities and market efficiency, which could be very useful for finance practitioners, such as an investor who plays at the stock exchange, a portfolio manager, a financial strategist/advisor in an investment firm, a financial planner, an investment banker, a trader/broker at the stock exchange or a financial analyst. But most importantly, the term also includes all those persons who manage corporate entities and are responsible for making their financial management strategies.
Originality/value
Currently, no recent study exists, which reviews and evaluates the empirical research on cognitive heuristic-driven biases displayed by investors. The current study is original in discussing the role of cognitive heuristic-driven biases in investment management activities and market efficiency as well as the history and foundations of behavioral finance by means of research synthesis. This paper is useful to researchers, academicians, policymakers and those working in the area of behavioral finance in understanding the role that cognitive heuristic plays in investment management activities and market efficiency.
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Imran Khan, Mustafa Afeef, Shahid Jan and Anjum Ihsan
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of heuristic biases, namely, availability bias and representativeness bias on investors’ investment decisions in the…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of heuristic biases, namely, availability bias and representativeness bias on investors’ investment decisions in the Pakistan stock exchange, as well as the moderating role of long-term orientation.
Design/methodology/approach
Using a structured questionnaire, a total of 374 responses have been collected from individual investors trading in PSX. The relationship was tested by applying the partial least square structural equation model using SmartPLS 3.2.2. Further, Henseler and Chin’s (2010) product indicator approach for moderation analysis was applied to the data set.
Findings
The results revealed that availability bias and representativeness bias have a significant and positive influence on the investment decisions of investors. Furthermore, a significant moderating effect of long term orientation on the effect of representativeness bias on investment decision is observed. This suggests that investors’ long term orientation weaken the effect of representativeness bias on investment decision. However, no significant moderating effect was observed for availability bias.
Originality/value
The paper provides novel insights on the role of heuristic-driven biases on the investment decisions of individual investors in the stock market. Particularly, it enhanced the understanding of behavioral aspects of investment decision-making in an emerging market.
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Haili Zhang, Hans van der Bij and Michael Song
While some studies have found that cognitive biases are detrimental to entrepreneurial performance, others have conjectured that cognitive biases may stimulate entrepreneurial…
Abstract
Purpose
While some studies have found that cognitive biases are detrimental to entrepreneurial performance, others have conjectured that cognitive biases may stimulate entrepreneurial action. This study uses a typology of availability and representative heuristics to examine how two patterns of biases affect entrepreneurial performance. Drawing on ideas from cognitive science, this study predicts that various levels of biases in each pattern stimulate entrepreneurial behavior and performance.
Design/methodology/approach
A profile-deviation approach was employed to analyze data from 253 entrepreneurs and zero-truncated Poisson regression and the zero-truncated negative binomial regression to test hypotheses.
Findings
This study finds some positive associations between a particular level of cognitive biases in each of the two patterns and entrepreneurial behavior and performance. Results show that the patterns of biases often stimulate and never hurt entrepreneurial behavior and performance. The opposite holds for a lack of cognitive biases, which hurts and never stimulates entrepreneurial behavior and performance.
Originality/value
This study examines patterns of cognitive biases of entrepreneurs instead of single biases. The study broadens the perspective on the heuristics and cognitive biases of entrepreneurs by examining patterns of biases emanating from the availability and the representativeness heuristic that make a difference for entrepreneurial behavior and performance. The study also brings the “great rationality debate” closer to the entrepreneurship field by showing that a normative rule based on statistics and probability theory does not benefit entrepreneurial behavior and performance.
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Behavioral research is an accepted research paradigm in business disciplines outside of finance including management, marketing and accounting. This paper looks at these…
Abstract
Behavioral research is an accepted research paradigm in business disciplines outside of finance including management, marketing and accounting. This paper looks at these disciplines and proposes goals for increasing acceptance of this form of research in real estate. Primary goals include investigation of actual heuristic use, concentration on expert decision makers, either as a group or in comparison to novices, incorporation of additional theory advocating functional heuristics, incorporation of real estate specific theory and identifying both theoretically and empirically when, why and how heuristic use may bias the decision process.
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Kuo‐Lun Hsiao, Hsi‐Peng Lu and Wan‐Chin Lan
The purpose of this study was to determine how storytelling blogs affect readers’ intention to adopt travel products.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this study was to determine how storytelling blogs affect readers’ intention to adopt travel products.
Design/methodology/approach
The present study proposes a storytelling framework based on heuristic theory for examining the characteristics and key components of a story that can affect the reader’s potential future behavior. An empirical study involving 368 subjects was conducted to test this model.
Findings
The results indicated that the elements of storytelling blogs, “perceived aesthetics”, “narrative structure”, and “self‐reference”, can indirectly influence readers’ intention through empathy and attitude. In particular, “perceived aesthetics” had the strongest direct effect on attitude and total effect on intention. Nevertheless, the control variables, age, gender, and frequency of searching for information about travel online, did not influence the intention.
Practical implications
The proposed framework can be used by enterprises to develop storytelling blogs for marketing their products. Blog design needs to consider aesthetics, narrative structure, and relevance to readers.
Originality/value
The paper contributes to a deeper understanding of the influence of storytelling blogs from a heuristic perspective.
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Three hundred and sixty‐seven members of the general public were interviewed in Surrey and Greater London in an attempt to ascertain whether they employed the representativeness…
Abstract
Three hundred and sixty‐seven members of the general public were interviewed in Surrey and Greater London in an attempt to ascertain whether they employed the representativeness heuristic when interpreting the corporate personas of UK building societies and banks. The representativeness heuristic is a simple decision‐making rule whereby an individual draws inferences about an organisation according to how closely it is perceived to resemble other organisations regarded as typical of a particular group (‘banks’ for example). It emerged that many respondents did indeed apply the representativeness heuristic in this context, resulting in their ignoring or paying little attention to a specific item of objectively useful information. The findings of previous research which concluded that building societies have ‘warmer’ and friendlier images than conventional banks are generally supported. An important observation was that building societies which in recent years have converted themselves into banking PLCs are still regarded by large numbers of people as possessing the same image attributes as unconverted building societies.
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Muhammad Haroon Rasheed, Amir Rafique, Tayyaba Zahid and Muhammad Waqar Akhtar
The purpose of this paper is to look at the impact of two most commonly used heuristics, namely, representative bias and availability bias on investment decision making and to…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to look at the impact of two most commonly used heuristics, namely, representative bias and availability bias on investment decision making and to check that either locus of control interact with the said relations through theoretical proposal and then verification through empirical evidence.
Design/methodology/approach
The study is a quantitative research using a survey questionnaire for its data collection. Data are collected from 227 investors operating at Islamabad, Lahore, and Sargodha in Pakistan and analyzed using structural equation modeling while the interaction effect is analyzed through simple linear regression following the rules set by Baron and Kenny (1986).
Findings
The results reveal that both of the heuristics under study significantly cause investors to deviate from rational decision making while the locus of control have no significant moderating effect.
Originality/value
The proposed model provides insight on how the behavioral factors can lead investors to suboptimal decision making. This study is first of its kind to quantify the degree of irrationality caused by these factors. The findings of this study are practically useful for individual investors, investment managers, and also for policy makers.
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Eui-Bang Lee, Jinwha Kim and Sang-Gun Lee
The purpose of this paper is to identify the influence of the frequency of word exposure on online news based on the availability heuristic concept. So that this is different from…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to identify the influence of the frequency of word exposure on online news based on the availability heuristic concept. So that this is different from most churn prediction studies that focus on subscriber data.
Design/methodology/approach
This study examined the churn prediction through words presented the previous studies and additionally identified words what churn generate using data mining technology in combination with logistic regression, decision tree graphing, neural network models, and a partial least square (PLS) model.
Findings
This study found prediction rates similar to those delivered by subscriber data-based analyses. In addition, because previous studies do not clearly suggest the effects of the factors, this study uses decision tree graphing and PLS modeling to identify which words deliver positive or negative influences.
Originality/value
These findings imply an expansion of churn prediction, advertising effect, and various psychological studies. It also proposes concrete ideas to advance the competitive advantage of companies, which not only helps corporate development, but also improves industry-wide efficiency.
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Anthony K. Hunt, Jia Wang, Amin Alizadeh and Maja Pucelj
This paper aims to provide an elucidative and explanatory overview of decision-making theory that human resource management and development (HR) researchers and practitioners can…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to provide an elucidative and explanatory overview of decision-making theory that human resource management and development (HR) researchers and practitioners can use to explore the impact of heuristics and biases on organizational decisions, particularly within HR contexts.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper draws upon three theoretical resources anchored in decision-making research: the theory of bounded rationality, the heuristics and biases program, and cognitive-experiential self-theory (CEST). A selective narrative review approach was adopted to identify, translate, and contextualize research findings that provide immense applicability, connection, and significance to the field and study of HR.
Findings
The authors extract key insights from the theoretical resources surveyed and illustrate the linkages between HR and decision-making research, presenting a theoretical framework to guide future research endeavors.
Practical implications
Decades of decision-making research have been distilled into a digestible and accessible framework that offers both theoretical and practical implications.
Originality/value
Heuristics are mental shortcuts that facilitate quick decisions by simplifying complexity and reducing effort needed to solve problems. Heuristic strategies can yield favorable outcomes, especially amid time and information constraints. However, heuristics can also introduce systematic judgment errors known as biases. Biases are pervasive within organizational settings and can lead to disastrous decisions. This paper provides HR scholars and professionals with a balanced, nuanced, and integrative framework to better understand heuristics and biases and explore their organizational impact. To that end, a forward-looking and direction-setting research agenda is presented.
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