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This chapter considers the relationship between stock market autocorrelation and (i) the presence of international investors which is proxied by the level of capital market integration and (ii) stock market volatility. Drawing from a sample of nine Asia-Pacific stock indices, significant evidence of a relationship between the presence of international investors and the level of stock market autocorrelation is found. This evidence is consistent with the view that international investors are positive feedback traders. Robustness testing of this model suggests that the trading strategy of international investors changed as a result of the Asian currency crisis. The evidence for the role of volatility in explaining autocorrelation is, however, is generally weak and varies across the sample countries.

The phenomenon of positive autocorrelation in daily stock index returns is often viewed as a consequence of stable behavioural patterns of certain investor groups (see, e.g., Sentana & Wadhwani, 1992; Koutmos, 1997). However, such patterns may change due to extreme events, that is, financial crises, and thus affect the autocorrelation in returns. Emerging markets and especially BRIC countries have experienced severe crises in the last 20 years and are therefore a suitable object for studying this effect.

The focus of this chapter is on identifying substantial changes in the autocorrelation of BRIC markets' index returns after experiencing upheavals of the financial system. For this purpose, we look for structural breaks in the parameters of an ARMA–GARCH model with the standard endogenous search procedure.

Our approach yields no statistically significant evidence of the autocorrelation changes due to the crises. Only in India the decline in autocorrelation in 1998 seems to be economically relevant, but is not significant statistically. Significant shifts that we could identify were rather related to microstructural changes, such as abolishment of price change limits by China and the removal of a leading player in India's market in 1992. All in all our results suggest that even though extreme negative events on financial markets may induce changes in feedback trading strategies, their influence on autocorrelation is not pronounced enough. The impact of other factors, in the first place of regulatory changes, seems to be of larger relevance.

“It should also be noted that the objective of convergence and equal distribution, including across under-performing areas, can hinder efforts to generate growth. Contrariwise, the objective of competitiveness can exacerbate regional and social inequalities, by targeting efforts on zones of excellence where projects achieve greater returns (dynamic major cities, higher levels of general education, the most advanced projects, infrastructures with the heaviest traffic, and so on). If cohesion policy and the Lisbon Strategy come into conflict, it must be borne in mind that the former, for the moment, is founded on a rather more solid legal foundation than the latter” European Commission (2005, p. 9)Adaptation of Cohesion Policy to the Enlarged Europe and the Lisbon and Gothenburg Objectives.

This chapter simultaneously investigates the most important calendar anomalies in stock returns: day of the week, turn of the month, turn of the year and holiday periods, in four of the most important Latin American stock markets: Argentina, Brazil, Mexico and Chile. Previous evidence available for these countries is very limited. Our results indicate that the three markets show a rather similar pattern regarding return seasonality. A day of the week effect, consisting in negative returns on Mondays, is reported for all the stock markets but the Mexican. The turn of the year effect is observed only in Argentina, and moderate holiday and turn of the month effects are reported in the Brazilian and the Mexican markets, respectively. In addition, significant levels of first-order return autocorrelation are reported for the four stock markets. The contemporary financial crisis has dramatically affected the behaviour of stock prices worldwide, causing, among other effects, a huge increase in price volatility and probably changing the behaviour of participants in financial markets. We have also investigated to what extent our results have been affected by the current abnormal situation.

New asymptotic approximations are established for the Wald and t statistics in the presence of unknown but strong autocorrelation. The asymptotic theory extends the usual fixed-smoothing asymptotics under weak dependence to allow for near-unit-root and weak-unit-root processes. As the locality parameter that characterizes the neighborhood of the autoregressive root increases from zero to infinity, the new fixed-smoothing asymptotic distribution changes smoothly from the unit-root fixed-smoothing asymptotics to the usual fixed-smoothing asymptotics under weak dependence. Simulations show that the new approximation is more accurate than the usual fixed-smoothing approximation.

Purpose – The purpose of this study is to explore the concept of spatial modeling in adolescent and under-five children’s nutritional status.

Design/Methodology/Approach – The indicator used to identify spatial autocorrelation is the Local Indicator of Spatial Association (LISA). LISA is a method of exploratory analysis of spatial data capable of detecting spatial relationships at the local level and its effects globally. Aplication of stochastic modeling in spatial nutrition identification mapping can be categorized into two cases based on spatial autocorrelation and non-spatial autocorrelation.

Findings – This results of this study indicate that there is no spatial autocorrelation in the adolescent nutritional dataset. The thematic map for anemia showed that that the highest number of anemia in adolescents was in KutaAlam sub-districts (48 people). Sub-districts that were second most common were Meuraxa, Jaya Baru, and Baiturrahman sub-districts. The fewest cases were found in Lueng Bata sub-district (12 people). There were no sub-districts affected by neighboring areas, in the case of adolescents’ anemia in Banda Aceh. For the under-five nutritional data set, it shows that there are four factors that significantly affect spatial influence, which are malnutrition, chronic energy deficiency, woman of child-bearing age, proportion of family planning, percentage of households with PHBS and coverage of access to clean water.

Research Limitations/Implications – Anemia data were obtained with a school-based survey. Household survey would be better to implement in spatial analysis.

Practical Implications – The comparison of the dataset with the two methods provides a simple example to implement special autocorrelation in practice.

Social Implications – The results contribute to a much better comparison in many cases in the nutritional field.

Originality/Value – This is the initial nutritional status of adolescents in Banda Aceh.

Several lessons learnt from a Bayesian analysis of basic macroeconomic time-series models are presented for the situation where some model parameters have substantial posterior probability near the boundary of the parameter region. This feature refers to near-instability within dynamic models, to forecasting with near-random walk models and to clustering of several economic series in a small number of groups within a data panel. Two canonical models are used: a linear regression model with autocorrelation and a simple variance components model. Several well-known time-series models like unit root and error correction models and further state space and panel data models are shown to be simple generalizations of these two canonical models for the purpose of posterior inference. A Bayesian model averaging procedure is presented in order to deal with models with substantial probability both near and at the boundary of the parameter region. Analytical, graphical, and empirical results using U.S. macroeconomic data, in particular on GDP growth, are presented.

Longitudinal regression analysis is conducted to clarify causal relations and control for unwanted influences from actor heterogeneity and state dependence on theoretically important coefficient estimates. Because strategic management contains theory on how firms differ and how firm actions are influenced by their current strategic position and recent experiences, consistency of theory and methodology often requires use of longitudinal methods. We describe the theoretical motivation for longitudinal methods and outline some common methods. Based on a survey of recent articles in strategic management, we argue that longitudinal methods are now used more frequently than before, but the use is still inconsistent and insufficiently justified by theoretical or empirical considerations. In particular, strategic management researchers should use dynamic models more often, and should test for the presence of actor effects, autocorrelation, and heteroscedasticity before applying corrections.