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Abstract

Details

Quantitative and Empirical Analysis of Nonlinear Dynamic Macromodels
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-0-44452-122-4

Article
Publication date: 1 January 1983

David E. Hojman

Conventional and alternative versions of the augmented Phillips curve are tested for Chile for the period 1974–1979. All regressors are significant. The alternative formulation…

Abstract

Conventional and alternative versions of the augmented Phillips curve are tested for Chile for the period 1974–1979. All regressors are significant. The alternative formulation and rationally formed expectations provide the best fit, with the minimum wage indexation and conventional curve results suggesting the presence of non‐wage inflationary pressures in addition to wage ones. Forecasting is made possible by deriving the relationship between real wages and the unemployment rate, and combinations of moderate‐to‐substantial real wage increases and unemployment reductions were feasible, over the medium term, under the policies and economic conditions prevailing up to mid‐1979.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 10 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Article
Publication date: 1 January 1990

M. Aynul Hasan

Some structural evidence indicating a substantial degree of inertiain commodity prices in Pakistan within the context of a completerational expectations macroeconomic model is…

Abstract

Some structural evidence indicating a substantial degree of inertia in commodity prices in Pakistan within the context of a complete rational expectations macroeconomic model is provided. The evidence also supports the existence of a short‐run Phillips curve for Pakistan for the period 1972(1) to 1981(4). What is more interesting is the existence of a long‐run “trade‐off” between excess demand for labour and inflation despite the fact that inflationary expectations are assumed to be rational.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 17 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Abstract

Details

Quantitative and Empirical Analysis of Nonlinear Dynamic Macromodels
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-0-44452-122-4

Book part
Publication date: 1 July 2015

Tiziana Assenza, Michele Berardi and Domenico Delli Gatti

Should the central bank target asset price inflation? In their 1999 paper Bernanke and Gertler claimed that price stability and financial stability are “mutually consistent…

Abstract

Should the central bank target asset price inflation? In their 1999 paper Bernanke and Gertler claimed that price stability and financial stability are “mutually consistent objectives” in a flexible inflation targeting regime which “dictates that central banks … should not respond to changes in asset prices.” This conclusion is straightforward within their framework in which asset price inflation shows up as a factor “augmenting” the IS curve. In this chapter, we pursue a different modeling strategy so that, in the end, asset price dynamics will be incorporated into the NK Phillips curve. We put ourselves, therefore, in the best position to obtain a significant stabilizing role for asset price targeting. It turns out, however, that inflation volatility is higher in the asset price targeting case. After all, therefore, targeting asset prices may not be a good idea.

Details

Monetary Policy in the Context of the Financial Crisis: New Challenges and Lessons
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78441-779-6

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 27 September 2011

A. Nazif Çatik, Christopher Martin and A. Özlem Onder

Using data from Turkey, this paper seeks to investigate whether relative price changes can help to explain the Phillips Curve relationship between inflation and output.

Abstract

Purpose

Using data from Turkey, this paper seeks to investigate whether relative price changes can help to explain the Phillips Curve relationship between inflation and output.

Design/methodology/approach

Building on work by Ball and Mankiw, the paper includes measures of the variance and skews of relative price adjustment in an otherwise standard model of the Phillips Curve. It employs a bounds‐testing approach based on an ARDL model to establish long‐run relationships. It then uses error correction models to analyze short‐run dynamics.

Findings

No evidence was found for a long‐run relationship between inflation and output. However, a long‐run relationship is in fact found, once the variance and skew of relative price changes are included as regressors. The error correction model implies plausible short‐term dynamics in this case.

Originality/value

This paper combines two distinct literatures, on the Phillips Curve and on the distribution of relative price changes, showing that insights from the latter can be essential in constructing coherent models of the Philips Curve.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 38 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 28 April 2016

Robert F. Mulligan

Monthly 1980–2014 data are examined to determine how employment responds to money supply shocks in Canada and the United States. The focus of the analysis is a comparison of the…

Abstract

Monthly 1980–2014 data are examined to determine how employment responds to money supply shocks in Canada and the United States. The focus of the analysis is a comparison of the real economies’ responses to the financial crisis and the great recession. Employment is used as a proxy for real output, though it may respond to monetary shocks with a longer lag. Vector autoregression models are specified, estimated, and interpreted. Impulse response functions are examined to assess the impact of innovations in monetary policy. A comparison of the response of employment to monetary innovations allows for evaluation of alternative business cycle theories and of the relative efficacy of Canadian v. U.S. monetary policy. Cross-border impacts are also assessed. Granger causality tests are used to examine whether money supply growth causes unemployment, whether monetary shocks cause higher or lower employment, and distinguish between short-run and long-run effects.

Article
Publication date: 1 April 1984

David E. Hojman

Several Phillips curve models are presented and estimated with Chilean annual data for 1963–1982. Because of unreliable unemployment statistics, the real wage level is used to…

Abstract

Several Phillips curve models are presented and estimated with Chilean annual data for 1963–1982. Because of unreliable unemployment statistics, the real wage level is used to represent labour market disequilibrium. The Cortázar‐Marshall inflation index, alternative to the official one, and four different earnings variables are used. Equilibrium levels of earnings and equilibrium differentials are obtained. Market forces, expected inflation, structural change after 1973, and exogenous elements represented by a trend are all statistically significant; government‐determined minimum wage rates and union membership are not. There is no evidence of partial adjustment, and all equilibrium differentials increased during the period.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 11 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Abstract

Details

Quantitative and Empirical Analysis of Nonlinear Dynamic Macromodels
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-0-44452-122-4

Article
Publication date: 31 July 2023

Eduardo Loría and Raúl Antonio Tirado Cossío

The labor market responds in a differentiated manner during recessions and expansions, and it is of vital importance to know the magnitude asymmetries. The purpose of this paper…

Abstract

Purpose

The labor market responds in a differentiated manner during recessions and expansions, and it is of vital importance to know the magnitude asymmetries. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the effects of the disinflationary monetary policy (2005Q1–2022Q4) through the sacrifice rate measured in terms of unemployment and rate of critical labor conditions (RCLC) with nonlinear auto regressive distributed lag (NLARDL; Shin et al., 2014), which allows to efficiently estimate asymmetric effects in short and long terms in the presence of variables of different integration orders.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors estimate an asymmetric accelerationist Phillips curve, augmented with labor precariousness for Mexico (2005Q1–2022Q4) following the NLARDL approach (Shin et al., 2014).

Findings

The authors prove that the increase in the unemployment gap has greater disinflationary effects than the RCLC in both the short and the long term; the expansionary phases of the business cycle, which reduce UGap, do not have inflationary effects either in the short or in the long run, but improvements in the labor market do, when RCLC is reduced; raising RCLC appears to have been the companies’ main survival strategy since 2015; and these asymmetries can generate a low unemployment trap with high and growing precariousness, with huge dynamic costs for well-being, economic growth, inequality and poverty.

Social implications

As labor precariousness grows, the implications are several both in the short and long run. In the short run, the most notorious example of the effects on workers has to do with unstable and insecure situations, that disrupt all their life planning options, and health issues. Bohle et al. (2004) found in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries that casual employees had less desirable and predictable working hours, greater work–life conflict and more associated health complaints than people with permanent jobs.

Originality/value

The approach includes the labor precariousness variable, which describes a new phenomenon in the labor market. Nowadays, workers are facing a new threat since firms are employing a new labor cost reduction strategy in which they do not lay off workers but rather paying them less, working them more hours, or reducing benefits. The asymmetries between the effects of precarity and unemployment can generate a poverty trap in the long run. This problem is, once again, of great relevance in the context of global high inflation.

Details

International Journal of Development Issues, vol. 22 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1446-8956

Keywords

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