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Article
Publication date: 24 February 2012

Siamak Daneshvaran and Maryam Haji

By reviewing recent literature, it is noticeable that considerable attention has been given to the relationship between all Atlantic hurricanes and those that make landfall in the…

Abstract

Purpose

By reviewing recent literature, it is noticeable that considerable attention has been given to the relationship between all Atlantic hurricanes and those that make landfall in the USA. However, less research has been done regarding landfall frequency and identifying spatial areas that are statistically more likely to produce landfalling hurricanes. The purpose of this paper is to provide a better prediction method for US landfalling hurricanes.

Design/methodology/approach

This work is based on the hypothesis that landfall variations along the US coast can be better explained in terms of hurricane origination points over more susceptible areas on the North Atlantic Ocean. Simulation techniques are used to spatially quantify the landfall probability.

Findings

Results indicate the existence of a landfall corridor in the Atlantic Basin, which explains some of the variances observed in the landfall process. Two different hypotheses of climate are examined. A long‐term assumption is based on the historical data from 1940 to 2010. The second assumption is based on the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Since 1995, we are in a warm phase and we assume that sea surface temperatures remain warmer than the long‐term average over the next several years. Results indicate that the average increase on landfall frequency is about 13 per cent.

Originality/value

This paper is the first paper that introduces the concept of landfall origination corridor. It spatially identifies the differences between long term and warm phase of the atmosphere in terms of US landfall occurrence using hurricane origination points.

Article
Publication date: 1 January 2013

Siamak Daneshvaran and Maryam Haji

A reliable forecast of hurricane activity in the Atlantic Basin has the potential to help mitigate the economic losses caused by hurricanes. One of the difficult problems is to…

Abstract

Purpose

A reliable forecast of hurricane activity in the Atlantic Basin has the potential to help mitigate the economic losses caused by hurricanes. One of the difficult problems is to make reasonable annual forecast of catastrophe losses based on the short record of historical observations. Atmospheric conditions tend to influence tropical cyclone development. Considering the complex interactions among climatological factors, prediction of future hurricane activity is challenging. In this study, the authors are attempting to predict the number of Atlantic hurricanes for a given year based on two different approaches.

Design/methodology/approach

In part I, an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) is used to model a long‐run behavior of Atlantic hurricane frequency. The authors present a comparison of CSU's forecast with ARIMA model. Part II focuses on the relationship between the climate signals and hurricane activity and introduces a new approach in including climate indices into the prediction model. In this part, principal components analysis (PCA) is used to identify possible patterns in historical data based on six climate indices measured prior to hurricane season. The objective is to reduce the data set to a smaller set while most of the variability observed in the real data is captured. The variances observed in an orthogonal system indicate the order of contribution of each mode shape.

Findings

Results from part I suggest that CSU's forecast model, in general, is superior to results obtained by ARIMA. In part II, the correlation between mode (shapes) and the number of Atlantic hurricanes per year is examined. The resulting relationships show that, for the time interval of 1990 through 2011, PCA‐based approach provides better estimates compared to CSU's forecast.

Originality/value

The paper presents a unique prediction approach which is simple, relatively accurate and easy to apply. The results of this study show that complex statistical analyses/models do not necessarily provide better forecasts.

Details

The Journal of Risk Finance, vol. 14 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1526-5943

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 24 February 2012

Siamak Daneshvaran and Maryam Haji

In general, the insurance industry accepts large risks due to the frequency and severity of extreme events. Because of the short record on hazard data for such events, a large…

Abstract

Purpose

In general, the insurance industry accepts large risks due to the frequency and severity of extreme events. Because of the short record on hazard data for such events, a large amount of uncertainty has to be dealt with. Given this large uncertainty it is important to better quantify the hazard parameters that are defined as inputs to the catastrophe models. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the hurricane risk from loss point of view in the USA for both long‐term and warm phase conditions using a simulation‐based stochastic model.

Design/methodology/approach

A Poisson process is used to simulate the occurrence of events for both conditions. The generated event‐sets were used along with vulnerability and cost models to estimate the loss to an insurance industry portfolio. The paper discusses the statistics of events categorized by the Saffir‐Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, annualized and return period losses and compares the results for both assumed long‐term and warm phase climate states.

Findings

The analysis shows that the population of landfall data for the two climate conditions is not statistically different. However, if we accept that a difference in the frequency of landfall occurrence between the two assumptions exists, the increase in average annual loss is about 17 per cent.

Originality/value

This paper provides insights to the difference between the two states of atmosphere from the point of view of insured losses for hurricanes and is one of the first papers that offers conclusion on the uncertainty associated with the warm phase data.

Book part
Publication date: 1 January 2005

Dale Jamieson

In this chapter I claim that climate change poses important questions of global justice, both about mitigating the change that is now under way and about adapting to its…

Abstract

In this chapter I claim that climate change poses important questions of global justice, both about mitigating the change that is now under way and about adapting to its consequences.1 I argue for a mixed policy of mitigation and adaptation, and defend one particular approach to mitigation. I also claim that those of us who are rich by global standards and benefit from excess emissions have strenuous duties in our roles as citizens, consumers, producers, and so on to reduce our emissions and to finance adaptation.

Details

Perspectives on Climate Change: Science, Economics, Politics, Ethics
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-0-76231-271-9

Article
Publication date: 1 May 1996

David Pollitt

This special “Anbar Abstracts” issue of the Journal of Business & Industrial Marketing is split into seven sections covering abstracts under the following headings: Marketing…

Abstract

This special “Anbar Abstracts” issue of the Journal of Business & Industrial Marketing is split into seven sections covering abstracts under the following headings: Marketing strategy; Customer service; Promotion; Product management; Marketing research.

Details

Journal of Business & Industrial Marketing, vol. 11 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0885-8624

Article
Publication date: 1 September 2002

Richard L. Brinkman and June E. Brinkman

Looks partially toward a conceptual clarification of globalization interrelated to corporate power. The global economy has experienced structural transformation over time. An…

11260

Abstract

Looks partially toward a conceptual clarification of globalization interrelated to corporate power. The global economy has experienced structural transformation over time. An integrated network of world trade has evolved in the context of two separate stages. Stage one appeared during the period of the 1870s. The second stage appeared during the post Second World War era. To distinguish this period from stage one, the process of structural transformation now taking place is conceptualized and demarcated as corporate globalization. Given the growing increase in size, power and dominance of the MNCs, the locus of sovereignty is currently being questioned. An issue currently being raised relates to whether or not nation states or MNCs will be in control of the globalization process. Interjects and analyses the theory and policy of free trade, all of which is contained in a paradigm of culture evolution fed by the dynamics of technological change and economic development.

Details

International Journal of Social Economics, vol. 29 no. 9
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0306-8293

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 28 October 2021

Heather Carrasco and Andrea M. Romi

The purpose of this paper is to explore the use of blockchain technology in contested markets. The authors specifically consider the development and utilization of this accounting…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to explore the use of blockchain technology in contested markets. The authors specifically consider the development and utilization of this accounting system as a device that might democratize contested markets for vulnerable populations, supporting contested entrepreneurs while “cooling” the moral contestation to the market.

Design/methodology/approach

This study analyzes the relationship between vulnerable populations and contested market activities, the inclusive development and potential trust created by a blockchain accounting information system and how this interaction potentially creates support for economic and social systems.

Findings

This paper demonstrates that, in an era of decreased trust especially as it relates to a digital, globalized marketplace, blockchain has the potential to create democracies of access, trust and agency. This system overcomes many of the deficiencies associated with transparency and accountability and connects market participants with society, strengthening its potential to bridge two opposing vulnerable population viewpoints necessary for possible contested market development.

Research limitations/implications

The authors contribute to a deeper understanding of the role of emerging technologies in the interconnectedness between vulnerable populations in a contested market. Recognizing that blockchain is an imperfect version of its ideal intention, the authors also discuss the limitations of the system with respect to corruption, collusion and potential issues of adoption, and how this reduces the influence of blockchain as a “cooling” device within contested markets.

Practical implications

The authors provide an illustrative example whereby an entire industry might be persuaded from avoidance to promotion of new traceability devices and supported in the development of an accessible market.

Social implications

Global government's economic support for social systems continues to experience significant declines. With ever-degrading healthcare, infrastructure, public education, childcare, etc., new sources of economic influx are often desired. One potential source of additional funds is from the tax revenues derived from contested market transactions, those stigmatized industries often operating illegally. With substantial public distrust, blockchain potentially provides such industries with democratization and the trust necessary to transition the industry into a legal environment, with tax revenues benefiting various social systems.

Originality/value

This study goes beyond the preliminary discussions of the benefits and consequences of blockchain. Instead, the authors focus on the use of blockchain within contested markets and its ability to influence vulnerable populations. The authors also consider the use of blockchain-based accounting information systems to provide a holistic and more democratic platform from a regulatory, market participant and societal standpoint.

Details

Accounting, Auditing & Accountability Journal, vol. 35 no. 7
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0951-3574

Keywords

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