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A reliable forecast of hurricane activity in the Atlantic Basin has the potential to help mitigate the economic losses caused by hurricanes. One of the difficult problems is to make reasonable annual forecast of catastrophe losses based on the short record of historical observations. Atmospheric conditions tend to influence tropical cyclone development. Considering the complex interactions among climatological factors, prediction of future hurricane activity is challenging. In this study, the authors are attempting to predict the number of Atlantic hurricanes for a given year based on two different approaches.

In part I, an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) is used to model a long‐run behavior of Atlantic hurricane frequency. The authors present a comparison of CSU's forecast with ARIMA model. Part II focuses on the relationship between the climate signals and hurricane activity and introduces a new approach in including climate indices into the prediction model. In this part, principal components analysis (PCA) is used to identify possible patterns in historical data based on six climate indices measured prior to hurricane season. The objective is to reduce the data set to a smaller set while most of the variability observed in the real data is captured. The variances observed in an orthogonal system indicate the order of contribution of each mode shape.

Results from part I suggest that CSU's forecast model, in general, is superior to results obtained by ARIMA. In part II, the correlation between mode (shapes) and the number of Atlantic hurricanes per year is examined. The resulting relationships show that, for the time interval of 1990 through 2011, PCA‐based approach provides better estimates compared to CSU's forecast.

The paper presents a unique prediction approach which is simple, relatively accurate and easy to apply. The results of this study show that complex statistical analyses/models do not necessarily provide better forecasts.

The purpose of this paper is to focus on the climatic trends of mean annual temperature and annual precipitation from 1931 to 2000, in four regions of the USA: Northeast, South Atlantic, North Central, and Pacific West.

Five-year moving averages are calculated for each climatic variable of all regions and used for the trend analysis. Regression analysis was performed to evaluate the level of significance for each trend line. A trend with p < 0.0001 is considered statistically significant throughout the study.

The data show a 0.62°C increase in temperature in the Pacific West from 1931 to 2000. Over the same time period, precipitation has increased by 10.4 centimeters in the North Central Region, which is 10 percent higher than the long-term average for the region.

The 0.62°C increase suggests that the Pacific West may be experiencing the effect of global warming because this finding is consistent with the result of the Canadian climatic trend study by Zhang et al. who also found that annual precipitation has increased by 35 percent in southern Canada over the same period, which coincides with the increasing trend of precipitation found in the North Central Region. With the best available data and the findings from other studies, the authors are confident that the warming trend in the western USA is likely linked to the increasing sea surface temperature of the Pacific Ocean.

In preceding papers in this series, it has been shown that the symbols used in classificatory notation are of several kinds. They serve different functions—some represent scheduled classificatory terms, some are ‘signposts’ specifying the nature of the symbols which follow them, others are simply ‘fences’ separating consecutive term symbols, and yet others are relational particles. Again, symbols serving the same function may have different structures—they may be flexions or isolates, so that the notation for scheduled terms may be ‘hierarchical’ or ‘ordinal’.

The purpose of this paper is to engage theoretical displacement with the actual identifications of human displacement caused by dire circumstances of war and economic oppression and environmental degradation as indicated in UNHCR Global Trends documents.

The approach includes a comparative analysis of the theoretics of dislocation through close reading, cultural and textual analysis.

Earlier forms of forced migration due to enslavement replay themselves in the current forms.

This study provides the means for subsequent scholars to do the kinds of analyses which move from the theoretical to the practical.

The study can be a good research tool for practitioners in international relations.

Scholars and activists of displacement, deportation, refugee status have additional material for their projects.

This study is the only one of its kind as it links the issues of African diaspora to the Mediterranean.

The purpose of this paper is to describe through innovation system foresight and systemic innovation approach to address key systemic issues of European Union (EU) Overseas Countries and Territories (OCTs) concerning the sustainable development and economic resilience: the authors highlight the need for a systemic approach to innovation policy for the sustainable islands’ growth.

This research focuses on a multiple case study of selected OCTs, members of the Association of the OCTs. Specifically, this paper illustrates the foresight approach implemented in six OCTs in the context of the Territorial Strategies for Innovation project funded by the 10th European Development Fund.

The focus is on innovation system foresight and systemic innovation: the authors argue that key innovation elements of the individual OCTs can be used as crucial components of an emerging innovation system while this specific type of foresight can assist the governments of respective OCTs in the selection and design of specific instruments in relation to the formulation of their innovation strategies and policies.

This paper is based on work undertaken by the Territorial Strategies for Innovation project team during a three-year period dedicated to supporting the governments of OCTs both in defining and in implementing their innovation strategies. Its main contribution is to develop the concept of innovation system foresight and systemic innovation for the OCTs. The work presented here is considered to be of value by highlighting specific innovation elements for achieving sustainable and inclusive growth in OCTs.

The paper aims to begin with a brief review of early banking and finance methods, early logistics routes through Europe, and message delivery modes in medieval China, the paper then proposes to move on to a comparative study of modern logistics modes in the European Union and in India – in particular the ports of Le Havre (France) and Mangalore (Karnataka).

The data are derived from secondary sources, including the local press in India as well as official European Union (EU) documentation.

Given the cultural and political differences between the EU and India, their logistics and hinterland development are very different in deployment and scope: Le Havre “scores” much more highly than Mangalore and the EU is much more coherently developed than India.

Le Havre, France, and the EU are well placed through their integrated logistics development to merge with the proposed Euro‐Asia‐America “land‐bridge” which initially will be based on a redeveloped Trans‐Siberian rail network; whereas the southern “Silk Road” development, taking in India, is floundering due to many factors inhibiting implementation of this new network.

The paper will be of interest to those who wish to view the development of intercontinental logistics routes, and to grasp the future potential for new trade links between the Pacific and the Atlantic ports.

Looks at the changes taking place in air traffic services due to the increasing amount of traffic and subsequent pressure from airlines. Describes limitations in using radar and satellite solutions provided by giving examples of satcoms used by airlines today. Details the current trials of ADS (automatic dependent surveillance).

The paper seeks to explore lessons in service delivery from an industry that no longer exists. The transatlantic passenger liner dramatizes some of the most unique challenges of service delivery. The ship itself was a delivery mechanism completely separated from support services. Customers were essentially contained for extended periods. Whereas all customers received the same core transportation service, peripheral services varied substantially by service class.

Description of the historical context is followed by examinations of passenger and service provider perspectives to illustrate services expected and delivered. Primary and secondary source material is used to exemplify service management challenges.

Socioeconomic and technological factors played major roles in delivery system design decisions. With stable and loyal workforces and well designed delivery systems, ocean liners were able to deliver service successfully to customer classes with widely varying expectations.

Service management on ocean liners occupied a range of levels and intensity not found in current organizational contexts. The context provides modern practitioners pure consideration of complexities and service management implications.

The novel and isolated organizational aspects of transatlantic ocean liners is unique among organizations. Examination of service management in this context provides information of original value not available from examination of other kinds of organizations.