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1 – 10 of over 2000Shuzhen Zhu, Xiaofei Wu, Zhen He and Yining He
The purpose of this paper is to construct a frequency-domain framework to study the asymmetric spillover effects of international economic policy uncertainty on China’s stock…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to construct a frequency-domain framework to study the asymmetric spillover effects of international economic policy uncertainty on China’s stock market industry indexes.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper follows the time domain spillover model, asymmetric spillover model and frequency domain spillover model, which not only studies the degree of spillover in time domain but also studies the persistence of spillover effect in frequency domain.
Findings
It is found that China’s economic policy uncertainty plays a dominant role in the spillover effect on the stock market, while the global and US economic policy uncertainty is relatively weak. By decomposing realized volatility into quantified asymmetric risks of “good” volatility and “bad” volatility, it is concluded that economic policy uncertainty has a greater impact on stock downside risk than upside risk. For different time periods, the sensitivity of long-term and short-term spillover economic policy impact is different. Among them, asymmetric high-frequency spillover in the stock market is more easily observed, which provides certain reference significance for the stability of the financial market.
Originality/value
The originality aims at extending the traditional research paradigm of “time domain” to the research perspective of “frequency domain.” This study uses the more advanced models to analyze various factors from the static and dynamic levels, with a view to obtain reliable and robust research conclusions.
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Walid Mensi, Waqas Hanif, Elie Bouri and Xuan Vinh Vo
This paper examines the extreme dependence and asymmetric risk spillovers between crude oil futures and ten US stock sector indices (consumer discretionary, consumer staples…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper examines the extreme dependence and asymmetric risk spillovers between crude oil futures and ten US stock sector indices (consumer discretionary, consumer staples, energy, financials, health care, industrials, information technology, materials, telecommunication and utilities) before and during COVID-19 outbreak. This study is based on the rationale that stock sectors exhibit heterogeneity in their response to oil prices depending on whether they are classified as oil-intensive or non-oil-intensive sectors and the possible time variation in the dependence and risk spillover effects.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors employ static and dynamic symmetric and asymmetric copula models as well as Conditional Value at Risk (VaR) (CoVaR). Finally, they use robustness tests to validate their results.
Findings
Before the COVID-19 pandemic, crude oil returns showed an asymmetric tail dependence with all stock sector returns, except health care and industrials (materials), where an average (symmetric tail) dependence is identified. During the COVID-19 pandemic, crude oil returns exhibit a lower tail dependency with the returns of all stock sectors, except financials and consumer discretionary. Furthermore, there is evidence of downside and upside risk asymmetric spillovers from crude oil to stock sectors and vice versa. Finally, the risk spillovers from stock sectors to crude oil are higher than those from crude oil to stock sectors, and they significantly increase during the pandemic.
Originality/value
There is heterogeneity in the linkages and the asymmetric bidirectional systemic risk between crude oil and US economic sectors during bearish and bullish market conditions; this study is the first to investigate the average and extreme tail dependence and asymmetric spillovers between crude oil and US stock sectors.
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Dimitrios Vortelinos, Konstantinos Gkillas (Gillas), Costas Syriopoulos and Argyro Svingou
The purpose of this paper is to examine the inter-relations among the US stock indices.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to examine the inter-relations among the US stock indices.
Design/methodology/approach
Data of nine US stock indices spanning a period of sixteen years (2000-2015) are employed for this purpose. Asymmetries are examined via an error correction model. Non-linear inter-relations are researched via Breitung’s nonlinear cointegration, a M-G nonlinear causality model, shocks to the forecast error variance, a shock spillover index and an asymmetric VAR-GARCH (VAR-ABEKK) approach.
Findings
The inter-relations are significant. The results are robust across all types of inter-relations. They are highest in the Lehman Brothers sub-period. Higher stability after the EU debt crisis, enhances independence and growth for the US stock indices.
Originality/value
To the best of the knowledge, this is the first study to examine the inter-relations of US stock indices. Most studies on inter-relations concentrate on the portfolio analysis to reveal diversification benefits among various asset markets internationally. Hence this study contributes to this literature on the inter-relations of a specific asset market (stock), and in a specific nation (USA). The evident inter-relations support the notion of diversification benefits in the US stock markets.
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Walid Mensi, Ramzi Nekhili, Xuan Vinh Vo and Sang Hoon Kang
This paper examines dynamic return spillovers and connectedness networks among international stock exchange markets. The authors account for asymmetry by distinguishing between…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper examines dynamic return spillovers and connectedness networks among international stock exchange markets. The authors account for asymmetry by distinguishing between positive and negative returns.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper employs the spillover index of Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) to measure the volatility spillover index for total, positive and negative volatility.
Findings
The results show time-varying and asymmetric volatility spillovers among the stock markets under investigation. During the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, bad volatility spillovers are more pronounced and dominated over good volatility spillovers, indicating contagion effects.
Originality/value
The presence of confirmed COVID-19 cases positively (negatively) affects the good and bad spillovers under low and intermediate (upper) quantiles. Both types of spillovers at various quantiles agree also influenced by the number of COVID-19 deaths.
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Mahdi Ghaemi Asl and Muhammad Mahdi Rashidi
This study aims to investigate the spillover between the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) stock index and several security indices, including Sukuk and conventional bond, and…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to investigate the spillover between the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) stock index and several security indices, including Sukuk and conventional bond, and ultimately compare the hedge effectiveness of Sukuk and conventional bond.
Design/methodology/approach
The study uses VAR (1)-asymmetric Baba, Engle, Kraft and Kroner-multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (1,1) model to analyze the volatility and shock and asymmetric shock spillover between Sukuk index and several bond indices in the MENA region including, Bond, All Bond, High Yield Bond and Bond and Sukuk and MENA stock market index and ultimately compare the hedging capabilities of Sukuk and conventional bonds by calculating the optimal portfolio weights for securities indices and stock portfolios and hedge effectiveness of security indices.
Findings
Results indicate that there is no shock, volatility and asymmetric shock spillover between the Sukuk index and MENA stock index, implying that Sukuk indices behave independently from MENA stock indices; however, there is shock and asymmetric shock spillover between MENA stock indices and security indices that include conventional bonds. The result of optimal portfolio weights and corresponding hedge effectiveness indicate that Sukuk is the most significant asset among other security indices in diversifying and hedging stock MENA portfolios. Moreover, the hedge effectiveness of Sukuk shows persistent trends during both the normal and crisis periods.
Practical implications
The study suggests that MENA stock market investors and investment managers should add Sukuk instead of the conventional bond to their portfolio to hedge their portfolio against investment risks during both normal and crisis periods.
Originality/value
Although many studies compare many aspects of Sukuk and conventional bonds, this is the first study that compares the hedge effectiveness of Sukuk and conventional bond based on the time-varying optimal portfolio weights strategy.
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This paper aims to examine the volatility spillover dynamics between stock and foreign exchange market of China considering subprime 2007 financial crisis period.
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to examine the volatility spillover dynamics between stock and foreign exchange market of China considering subprime 2007 financial crisis period.
Design/methodology/approach
This study considered daily data from January 2, 2002, to December 31, 2013. The sample period has been further divided into three periods; full sample period (January 2002-December 2013), pre-crisis period (January 2002-October 2007) and post-crisis period (October 2007-December 2013). This study opted Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Heteroskedasticity (EGARCH) model for the purpose of investigating asymmetric volatility spillover.
Findings
The results obtained using the EGARCH model imply that volatility spillover dynamics varies from period to period. In full sample period, the results show evidence of significant unidirectional volatility spillover from foreign exchange market to stock market. In pre-crisis period, the results indicate unidirectional volatility spillover from stock market to foreign exchange market. However, in post-crisis period, the results reveal significant bidirectional volatility spillover between stock and foreign exchange market.
Practical implications
The results of the study are important for policy makers because understanding the behavior of the financial markets, i.e. stock and foreign exchange market, would increase the success of policies implemented in a crisis situation. The results would help investors to formulate efficient portfolios.
Originality/value
This study is an important contribution to the existing literature in terms of analyzing volatility spillover between stock and foreign exchange market in an emerging economy, China. Furthermore, this study explored the volatility spillover dynamics between the two markets by considering the pre and post subprime Asian crisis period.
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Yun Wang, Abeyratna Gunasekarage and David M. Power
This study examines return and volatility spillovers from the US and Japanese stock markets to three South Asian capital markets – (i) the Bombay Stock Exchange, (ii) the Karachi…
Abstract
This study examines return and volatility spillovers from the US and Japanese stock markets to three South Asian capital markets – (i) the Bombay Stock Exchange, (ii) the Karachi Stock Exchange and (iii) the Colombo Stock Exchange. We construct a univariate EGARCH spillover model that allows the unexpected return of any particular South Asian market to be driven by a local shock, a regional shock from Japan and a global shock from the USA. The study discovers return spillovers in all three markets, and volatility spillovers from the US to the Indian and Sri Lankan markets, and from the Japanese to the Pakistani market. Regional factors seem to exert an influence on these three markets before the Asian financial crisis but the global factor becomes more important in the post-crisis period.
Sang Hoon Kang and Seong-Min Yoon
This paper investigates the price discovery, volatility spillover, and asymmetric volatility spillover effects between the KOSPI 200 market and its futures contracts market. The…
Abstract
This paper investigates the price discovery, volatility spillover, and asymmetric volatility spillover effects between the KOSPI 200 market and its futures contracts market. The investigation was performed using the VECM-DCC-GARCH approach. In the case of returns, we found a significant unidirectional information flow from the futures market to the spot market; this implies that the KOSPI 200 futures market plays an important role on the price discovery in the spot market. In addition, we found a strong bi-directional casualty involving the volatility interaction between the spot and futures markets; this implies that market volatility originating in the spot market will influence the volatility of the futures market and vice versa. We also found strong asymmetric volatility spillover effects between the two markets.
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Dimitrios Kyrkilis, Athanasios Koulakiotis, Vassilios Babalos and Maria Kyriakou
The purpose of this paper is to examine the hypothesis of feedback trading along with the short-term return dynamics of three size-based stock portfolios of Athens Stock Exchange…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to examine the hypothesis of feedback trading along with the short-term return dynamics of three size-based stock portfolios of Athens Stock Exchange during the Greek debt crisis period.
Design/methodology/approach
To this end, the authors employ for the first time in the literature two well-known models while the variance equation is modeled by means of a multivariate EGARCH specification. As a robustness test an innovative nested-EGARCH model is also employed.
Findings
The assumption that positive feedback trading is an important component of the short-term return movements across the three stock portfolios receives significant support. Moreover, the volatility interdependence, both in magnitude and sign, is almost similar across the three models. Finally, bad news originating from the portfolio of small stock appears to have a higher impact on the volatility of large and medium size stock returns than good news during the Greek debt crisis period.
Originality/value
The methodology is innovative and the authors test for the first time the feedback trading hypothesis across different size stocks. The authors believe that the results might entail significant policy implications for investors and market regulators.
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Mouna Sebri and Georges Zaccour
The starting conjecture is that the market share of a brand in one category benefits from its performance in another category, and vice versa. The purpose of this paper is to…
Abstract
Purpose
The starting conjecture is that the market share of a brand in one category benefits from its performance in another category, and vice versa. The purpose of this paper is to assess the umbrella-branding spillovers by investigating the presence of synergy effect between categories when a retailer and/or a manufacturer decide to adopt/use the same name for his products. In fact, besides the cross-category dependency due to substitutability or complementarity, products can also be linked through their brand name in presence of an umbrella-branding strategy.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors propose an extended market-share model to account for the spillover effect at the brand level. The spillover is modeled to be generated by the brand's performance and not specific to marketing instruments, as done in the literature. They adopt a multiplicative competitive interaction (MCI) form for the attraction function. Based on aggregated data of two complementary oral-hygiene categories, the authors estimate the umbrella-branding spillover parameters using the iterate three-stage least squares (I3SLS) method. They contrast the results in three scenarios: no spillover, brand-constant spillover and brand-specific spillover.
Findings
The ensuing results indicate that umbrella-branding spillover is (i) significant and positive, i.e. the brand performance is boosted by its performance in a related category, through the so-called brand-attraction multiplier; (ii) asymmetric, i.e. the spillover is not equal in both directions; and associated to the market strength of each competing brand; (iii) variable across brands. The results show that not accounting for umbrella-branding spillover leads to misestimating the parameters and has a considerable impact on price-elasticities computation.
Research limitations/implications
Because store brands and some national brands exist in many categories, and thus because consumers make inferences when they face a large number of brands in different categories, spillover effects cannot be labelled as simply complementary or substitution-related. Future research may provide insight about the spillover phenomenon in a more general framework that would consider the spillover occurring between more than two categories.
Practical implications
Providing accurate assessment for umbrella-branding spillovers governing the competing brands, the results offer a relevant and straightforward method for decision makers to precisely assess the impact of a marketing effort in one category on the retailer's global performance. The findings provide better forecasts of market response in terms of sales and profit, within a cross-category perspective.
Originality/value
This study develops and estimates a market-share model with the aim of measuring brand-category spillover effects. The literature dealt with cross-category interactions in terms of substitutability or complementarity between the products offered in the two or more categories under investigation. Here, the focal point (and contribution) of the authors is the link at the brand level. Indeed, the authors only require that a minimum of one brand is offered in at least two of the categories of interest. Further, the spillover considered is not specific to marketing instruments, but is generated by the brand performance (attraction or market share), which is the result of both the firms marketing-mix choice and competitors marketing policies.
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