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1 – 10 of over 5000Paloma Taltavull de La Paz and Michael White
The purpose of this paper is to examine the role of monetary liquidity in house price evolution through examining the Asset (housing) Inflation channel. It identifies the main…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to examine the role of monetary liquidity in house price evolution through examining the Asset (housing) Inflation channel. It identifies the main channels of transmission affecting house prices from monetary supply channels to house price change, examining how the Asset Price channel transmits changes in M1 to housing prices in Spain and the UK.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper uses Vector Auto Regression (VAR) and Error Correction models to test the Asset Inflation channel in the UK and Spain from 1991 to 2013 in two steps. In the first step, the supply elasticity is estimated through the long-term relationship between house prices and stock supply. The second step estimates a Vector Error Correction (VEC) to explain house price dynamics conditioned on supply reactions. The latter is defined as a long-term inverse demand model where housing prices are controlled by fundamentals in each market. Models allow forecast testing using Choleski impulse responses methodology.
Findings
Several results are found. In the supply model, both countries show rapid convergence to equilibrium with a larger elasticity of supply in Spain than in the UK but with a short run effect of new supply on prices in the UK. Regarding the Asset Inflation Channel model, the paper finds evidence of the existence of a housing accelerator effect in Spain, but not in the UK where changes in liquidity fully impact house prices in one direction.
Research limitations/implications
Implications of findings are mainly to forecast the effects of Monetary Policy measures in different economies.
Practical implications
The model supports the evaluation of different impacts of monetary policy in territories. It shows that the same policy will have different impacts in different housing markets and therefore highlights the importance of examining each market separately to identify the appropriate policy interventions.
Originality/value
This is the first paper that estimates the impact of the Asset Inflation Channel on house prices that endogenises housing market conditions and compares effects and interrelationships in two different economies.
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Margarita Rubio and José A. Carrasco-Gallego
This study aims to build a two-country monetary union dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with housing to assess how different shocks contributed to the increase…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to build a two-country monetary union dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with housing to assess how different shocks contributed to the increase in housing prices and credit in the European Economic and Monetary Union. One of the countries is calibrated to represent the core group in the euro area, while the other one corresponds to the periphery.
Design/methodology/approach
In this paper, the authors explore how a liquidity shock (or a decrease in the interest rate) affects house prices and the real economy through the asset price and the collateral channel. Then, they analyze how a house price shock in the periphery and a technology shock in the core countries are transmitted to both economies.
Findings
The authors find that a combination of an increase in liquidity in the euro area coming from the common monetary policy, together with asymmetric house price and technology shocks, contributed to an increase in house prices in the euro area and a stronger credit growth in the peripheral economies.
Originality/value
This paper represents the theoretical counterpart to empirical studies that show, through macroeconometric models, the interrelation between liquidity and other shocks with house prices. Using a DSGE model with housing, the authors disentangle the mechanisms behind these empirical findings.
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Suriani Suriani, M. Shabri Abd. Majid, Raja Masbar, Nazaruddin A. Wahid and Abdul Ghafar Ismail
The purpose of this study is to empirically analyze the role of sukuk in the monetary policy transmission mechanism through the asset price and exchange rate channels in the…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this study is to empirically analyze the role of sukuk in the monetary policy transmission mechanism through the asset price and exchange rate channels in the Indonesian economy.
Design/methodology/approach
Using the monthly data from January 2003 to November 2017, this study uses a multivariate vector error correction model causality framework. To examine the role of sukuk in the monetary policy transmission mechanism through the asset price channel, this study uses the variables of consumption, inflation, interest rates, economic growth and the composite stock price index. Meanwhile, to examine the role of sukuk in the monetary policy transmission mechanism through the exchange rate channel, this study used variables of inflation, interest rates, economic growth, foreign investment and exchange rate.
Findings
This study documented that sukuk has no causal relationship with inflation through asset price and exchange rate channels. Nevertheless, sukuk has a bidirectional causal relationship with economic growth through asset price and exchange rate channels. Sukuk is also documented to have a causal relationship with monetary policy variables of interest rate and stock prices through asset price and exchange rate channels. Finally, a unidirectional causality is recorded running from the exchange rate to sukuk in the exchange rate channel.
Research limitations/implications
The finding of independence of the sukuk market from interest rates provides evidence that the trading of the sukuk in Indonesia has been in harmony with the Islamic tenets.
Practical implications
The relevant Indonesian authorities need to enhance both domestic and global sukuk markets as part of efforts to promote the sustainability of Islamic capital market development in Indonesia.
Originality/value
To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is among the first attempts to empirically investigate the role of sukuk in monetary policy transmission through asset price and exchange rate channels in the context of the Indonesian economy.
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Tiziana Assenza, Michele Berardi and Domenico Delli Gatti
Should the central bank target asset price inflation? In their 1999 paper Bernanke and Gertler claimed that price stability and financial stability are “mutually consistent…
Abstract
Should the central bank target asset price inflation? In their 1999 paper Bernanke and Gertler claimed that price stability and financial stability are “mutually consistent objectives” in a flexible inflation targeting regime which “dictates that central banks … should not respond to changes in asset prices.” This conclusion is straightforward within their framework in which asset price inflation shows up as a factor “augmenting” the IS curve. In this chapter, we pursue a different modeling strategy so that, in the end, asset price dynamics will be incorporated into the NK Phillips curve. We put ourselves, therefore, in the best position to obtain a significant stabilizing role for asset price targeting. It turns out, however, that inflation volatility is higher in the asset price targeting case. After all, therefore, targeting asset prices may not be a good idea.
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Stephanos Papadamou, Costas Siriopoulos and Nikolaos A. Kyriazis
This paper presents an integrated overview of the empirical literature on the impact of all forms of unconventional monetary policy on macroeconomic variables and on markets.
Abstract
Purpose
This paper presents an integrated overview of the empirical literature on the impact of all forms of unconventional monetary policy on macroeconomic variables and on markets.
Design/methodology/approach
This survey covers the findings concerning portfolio rebalancing, signaling, liquidity, bank lending and confidence channels.
Findings
The positive effect of QE announcements on stock and bond prices seems to be unified across studies. A contagion effect from US QE to other emerging markets is identified, while currency devaluation is present in most cases for the country that its central bank adopted such policies. Moreover, impacts of non-conventional practices on GDP, inflation and unemployment are examined. The studies presenting weak instead of strong positive effects on inflation are more, and these studies, also, present weak positive effects on GDP growth.
Originality/value
Based on the large body of research on non-conventional action taking, this is the first survey including effects of each country that adopted quantitative easing (QE) measures and that provides results from every methodology employed in order to estimate unconventional practices' impacts.
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Rosaria Rita Canale and Rajmund Mirdala
The role of money and monetary policy of the central bank in pursuing macroeconomic stability has significantly changed over the period since the end of World War II…
Abstract
The role of money and monetary policy of the central bank in pursuing macroeconomic stability has significantly changed over the period since the end of World War II. Globalization, liberalization, integration, and transition processes generally shaped the crucial milestones of the macroeconomic development and substantial features of economic policy and its framework in Europe. Policy-driven changes together with variety of exogenous shocks significantly affected the key features of macroeconomic environment on the European continent that fashioned the framework and design of monetary policies.
This chapter examines the key basis of the central bank’s monetary policy on its way to pursue and preserve the internal and external stability of the purchasing power of money. Substantial elements of the monetary policy like objectives and strategies are not only generally introduced but also critically discussed according to their accuracy, suitability, and reliability in the changing macroeconomic conditions. Brief overview of the Eurozone common monetary policy milestones and the past Eastern bloc countries’ experience with a variety of exchange rate regimes provides interesting empirical evidence on origins and implications of vital changes in the monetary policy conduction in Europe and the Eurozone.
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Roseline Nyakerario Misati, Alfred Shem Ouma and Kethi Ngoka-Kisinguh
All over the world, the role of central banks is being redefined following the outbreak of the global financial crisis and subsequent breakdown of the “great moderation”…
Abstract
All over the world, the role of central banks is being redefined following the outbreak of the global financial crisis and subsequent breakdown of the “great moderation” consensus. Consequently, most advanced economies adopted non-conventional approaches of monetary policy which resulted in spill-overs to emerging markets and developing countries with implications on their financial system and monetary policy transmission. This, coupled with, internal developments in the financial systems of developing countries necessitated modifications of not only monetary policy frameworks but also responsibilities of most central banks. This chapter acknowledges possible evolutions of the financial structure variables in developing countries and uses data from Kenya to analyze the dynamic linkages between financial sector variables and monetary policy transmission in the light of the financial crisis. The study used structural vector autoregression to examine the relationship between financial structure variables and monetary policy as well as assess the relative importance of various monetary transmission channels in Kenya. The results show that the changing financial structure represented by credit to the private sector and stock market indicators in Kenya only slightly altered relative importance of monetary policy transmission. The insignificance of credit to the private sector suggests that the importance attached to the bank lending channel in previous studies is waning while the marginal significance of the stock market indicator signals the potential for asset price channel. The results also indicate that the interest rate and exchange rate channels are relatively more important in Kenya while the asset prices is only marginally significant and bank lending channel is the weakest in the intermediate stage of monetary policy transmission. However, transmission of monetary policy to the ultimate objectives is somewhat slow and weak to inflation and almost absent to output. The result implies a limited role of monetary policy on growth and questions the wisdom of pursuing multiple objectives.
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