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The study examines Asia Pacific (APAC) non-listed non-core real estate funds' capital calls (investor equity drawdowns) sequence for varying vehicle strategies.

Analysis starts with a cursory data interpretation that extracts a typical investors' equity drawdowns schedule. Thousands of simulations are then computed for each vehicle strategy for each year to further interpretation.

Data and methodological limitations notwithstanding, overall estimates suggest that funds exhibit a contrasting capital calls sequence. As a group, APAC non-core non-listed real estate funds call circa 76.3% of investors' committed capital during the first four years of the fund life. Single sector, single country and value added vehicles have a greater capital calls velocity compared to their multi sector, multi country and opportunity peers. However, the two fund groups exhibit a notable standard deviation heterogeneity of drawdowns.

Investors should therefore budget accordingly when choosing either of vehicle strategies to invest in.

The study adds additional evidence on the topic of capital calls velocity. Results should assist LPs with their non-listed APAC real estate funds investment programme further.

This study is a practice undertaking examining three main concerns that currently dominate Dutch housing market debate: how long is the cycle, will the current house price inflation continue and is housing market in a bubble. With national house prices reaching record highs across all major cities, future market prospects became a topic of significant debate among policymakers, investors and the populace.

A triangulation of well-established academic methods is used to perform investigation. The models include Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter, volatility autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH approximation) and right tail augmented Dickey–Fuller (Rtadf) test (bubble screening technique).

Interestingly, over the years from 1985 to 2019 research period, filtering extracts only one Dutch national housing cycle. This is a somewhat distinct characteristic compared to other advanced Western economies (inter alia the UK and the USA) where markets tend to experience 8- to 10-year gyrations. Volatility and Rtadf test suggest that current house prices in most Dutch cities are in excess of historical averages and statistical thresholds. House price levels in Almere, Amsterdam, The Hague, Groningen, Rotterdam and Utrecht are of particular concern.

Retail investors should therefore be cautious as they are entering the market at the time of elevated housing values. For institutional investors, those investing in long-term, housing in key Dutch metropolitan areas, even if values decline, is still an attractive investment conduit.

The purpose of this paper is to build a case for globally diversified core real estate funds portfolio.

It uses Monte Carlo simulation technique to construct synthetic real estate funds portfolios.

Benefit of maintaining globally diversified real estate funds portfolio merits admission. An optimal portfolio has an almost even split between Europe, USA and Asia Pacific, ceteris paribus. Likewise, currency effect for Europe domiciled investors is undeniable.

The overall estimates suggest that a blend of APAC, European and US allocations enhance portfolio risk return profile.

The study adds additional evidence on the contested issue of real estate diversification.

The purpose of this paper is to examine whether Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) returns on the different days of the week differ from each other.

It uses European Public Real Estate Association (EPRA)/National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts (NAREIT) UK index daily closing values (GBP) and its two sub-indices FTSE EPRA/NAREIT UK REITs and non-REITs as dependent variables. It employs Kruskal-Wallis tests and dummy-variable regression to test the hypothesis.

The overall findings provide evidence that return anomalies exist in the UK REITs.

Thought significant, the absolute returns differences are modest for investors to gain superior returns in UK REITs. However, by recognising the day-of-the-week effect, investors can buy/sell UK REITs more effectively.

This research brings updated evidence of the contested calendar anomalies issues in REITs.

The purpose of this paper is to assess the duration of the UK commercial property cycles, their volatility and persistence to gauge future market direction.

The study employs a novel approach to dissect cycles in a form of a three-step algorithm. First, the Hodrick-Prescott de-trends the selected variables. Second, volatility (measured by the variance) screens periods of atypical fluctuations in the series. Finally, the series is regressed against its past values to assess the level of persistence. The sequential steps screen the length of the cycles in UK commercial property market to facilitate interpretation.

The estimates suggest that UK commercial property market follows an eight-year cycle. Combined modelling results indicate that the current market trend is likely to change over the coming year. The modelling suggests increasing probability of a market correction in late 2016/early 2017.

This updated appreciation of the UK commercial property cycle duration allows for better market timing and investment decision making.

The paper adds additional evidence on the contested issue of UK commercial property cycle duration.

The study is set to explore a viability for substituting part of cash holdings within European open-end diversified core equity (ODCE) real-estate funds with listed real-estate exchange-traded fund (ETF) alternative. Academically, this research bridges a knowledge gap within private real-estate market research.

First, the study investigates the correlation between ODCE and ETFs to assess series interdependence. Next, the study generates a blended ODCE and ETF portfolio and examines its performance by quantifying a) the contribution to returns and b) the diversification benefits.

The findings suggest that a 1 percent spare cash allocation to an ETF increases ODCE fund returns by few bps although the diversification benefits are more nuanced.

Real estate and other investment vehicles are encouraged to review their cash-holding strategies. Real estate, infrastructure or private equity vehicles could designate a small proportion of available cash to asset class-specific ETFs. These cash substitutes are likely to increase returns and could strengthen diversification, although there are some caveats. For ESG-conscious investors, sustainable ETFs and associated passive conduits with strong responsible investment characteristics could provide cash replacement alternatives at the margin.

The study adds additional evidence on the contested issue of blending private and public real estate.

This paper aims to investigate Lithuanian house price changes. Its twin motivations are the importance of information on future house price movements to sector stakeholders and the limited number of related Lithuanian property market studies.

The study employs ARIMA modelling approach. It assesses whether past is a good predictor of the future. It then examines issues relating to an application of this univariate time-series modelling technique in a forecasting context.

As the results of the study suggest, ARIMA is a useful technique to assess broad market price changes. Government and central bank can use ARIMA modelling approach to forecast national house price inflation. Developers can employ this methodology to drive successful house-building programme. Investor can incorporate forecasts from ARIMA models into investment strategy for timing purposes.

Certainly, there are number of limitations attached to this particular modelling approach. Firm predictions about house price movements are also a challenge, as well as more research needs to be done in establishing a dynamic interrelationship between macro variables and the Lithuanian housing market.

Although the research focused on Lithuania, the findings extend to global housing market. ARIMA house price modelling provides insights for a spectrum of stakeholders. The use of this modelling approach can be employed to improve monetary policy oversight, facilitate planning for infrastructure or social housing as a countercyclical policy and mitigate risk for investors. What is more, a greater appreciation of Lithuania housing market can act as a bellwether for real estate markets in other trade-exposed small country economies.

The commercial property market is complex, but the literature suggests that simple models can forecast it. To confirm the claim, the purpose of this paper is to assess a set of models to forecast UK commercial property market.

The employs five modelling techniques, including Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), ARIMA with a vector of an explanatory variable(s) (ARIMAX), Simple Regression (SR), Multiple Regression, and Vector Autoregression (VAR) to model IPD UK All Property Rents Index. The Bank Rate, Construction Orders, Employment, Expenditure, FTSE AS Index, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and Inflation are all explanatory variables selected for the research.

The modelling results confirm that increased model complexity does not necessarily yield greater forecasting accuracy. The analysis shows that although the more complex VAR specification is amongst the best fitting models, its accuracy in producing out-of-sample forecasts is poorer than of some less complex specifications. The average Theil’s U-value for VAR model is around 0.65, which is higher than that of less complex SR with Expenditure (0.176) or ARIMAX (3,0,3) with GDP (0.31) as an explanatory variable models.

The paper calls analysts to make forecasts more user-friendly, which are easy to use or understand, and for researchers to pay greater attention to the development and improvement of simpler forecasting techniques or simplification of more complex structures.

The paper addresses the issue of complexity in modelling commercial property market. It advocates for simplicity in modelling and forecasting.

The paper aims to discuss the major and auxiliary types of cycles found in the literature.

The existence of cycles within economy and its sub-sectors has been studied for a number of years. In the wake of the recent cyclical downturn, interest in cycles has increased. To mitigate future risks, scholars and investors seek new insights for a better understanding of the cyclical phenomenon. The paper presents systematic review of the existing copious cyclical literature. It then discusses general characteristics and the key forces that produce these cycles.

The study finds four major and eight auxiliary cycles. It suggests that each cycle has its own distinct empirical periodicity and theoretical underpinnings. The longer the cycles are the greater controversy which surrounds them.

Cycles are monumental to a proper understanding of complex property market dynamics. Their existence implies that economies, whilst not deterministic, have a rhythm. Cyclical awareness can therefore advance property market participants.

The paper uncovers four major and eight auxiliary types of cycles and argues their importance.

The purpose of this paper is to sketch the UK housing backdrop, review the student private rented sector (PRS) and assess the experience of post-graduate university student tenants in the PRS.

A literature review puts the issues of student-PRS responsiveness into context and helps to untangle some UK housing issues. The private sector’s size, growth and performance is assessed by reviewing secondary data. In-depth interviews were then conducted at a regional university campus.

The study confirms accumulating evidence of an unbalanced UK housing market. The study identified four main PRS issues: first, rapid university expansion without accompanying residential construction has sparked rampant PRS growth with, second, quality issues, third, in tight letting market conditions, rented agent service levels fell and fourth, part of the problem is complex PRS management procedures.

The research has three noteworthy limitations. First, the macroeconomic analysis integrated secondary research without independent modelling. Second, the views of letting agents, university property managers, planning officers or landlords were not canvassed. Finally, the pilot interviews were geographically restricted.

When they expand, universities, local authorities and industry players need to give due consideration to plan for, design and develop quality student accommodation. Over-reliance on the PRS without informed oversight and coordination could undermine student experience and erode long-term UK competitiveness.

The lack of quality student rented accommodation mirrors a general housing malaise around affordability, polarisation and sustainable “dwelling”. Standards and professionalism in the rented sector is part of the overall quality mix to attract global talent.

The preliminary investigation uses mixed-methods to investigate PRS service delivery. It illustrates the interplay between professional property management and wider issues of metropolitan productivity, sustainability and resilience.