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The purpose of this paper is to investigate how expert overconfidence and dependence affect the calibration of aggregated probability judgments obtained by various linear opinion‐pooling models.

The authors used a large database containing real‐world expert judgments, and adopted the leave‐one‐out cross‐validation technique to test the calibration of aggregated judgments obtained by Cooke's classical model, the equal‐weight linear pooling method, and the best‐expert approach. Additionally, the significance of the effects using linear models was rigorously tested.

Significant differences were found between methods. Both linear‐pooling aggregation approaches significantly outperformed the best‐expert technique, indicating the need for inputs from multiple experts. The significant overconfidence effect suggests that linear pooling approaches do not effectively counteract the effect of expert overconfidence. Furthermore, the second‐order interaction between aggregation method and expert dependence shows that Cooke's classical model is more sensitive to expert dependence than equal weights, with high dependence generally leading to much poorer aggregated results; by contrast, the equal‐weight approach is more robust under different dependence levels.

The results suggest that methods involving broadening of subjective confidence intervals or distributions may occasionally be useful for mitigating the overconfidence problem. An equal‐weight approach might be more favorable when the level of dependence between experts is high. Although it was found that the number of experts and the number of seed questions also significantly affect the calibration of the aggregated distribution, further research to find the minimum number of questions or experts is required to ensure satisfactory aggregated performance would be desirable. Furthermore, other metrics or probability scoring rules should be used to check the robustness and generalizability of the authors' conclusion.

The paper provides empirical evidence of critical factors affecting the calibration of the aggregated intervals or distribution judgments obtained by linear opinion‐pooling methods.

This paper aims to give a brief review on behavioral economics and behavioral finance and discusses some of the previous research on agents' utility functions, applicable risk measures, diversification strategies and portfolio optimization.

The authors also cover related disciplines such as trading rules, contagion and various econometric aspects.

While scholars could first develop theoretical models in behavioral economics and behavioral finance, they subsequently may develop corresponding statistical and econometric models, this finally includes simulation studies to examine whether the estimators or statistics have good power and size. This all helps us to better understand financial and economic decision-making from a descriptive standpoint.

The research paper is original.

We analyze historical business cycles as a sum of short‐ and medium‐term cycles defined for a particular class of unobserved component models. By associating the trend with the low frequencies of the pseudo‐spectrum in the frequency domain, manipulation of the spectral bandwidth will allow us to define subjective trends with specific properties. In this paper, we show how these properties can be exploited to anticipate business cycle turning points, not only historically but also in a true ex‐ante exercise. This procedure is applied to US pre‐Second World War GNP quarterly data taking as reference the NBER and Romer’s business cycle datings.

The traditional and still dominant logic among nearly all empirical positivist researchers in schools of management is to write symmetric (two-directional) variable hypotheses (SVH) even though the same researchers formulate their behavioral theories at the case (typology) identification level. Cyert and March’s (1963), Cyert, R. M., & March, J. G. (1963). A behavioral theory of the firm. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall), Howard and Sheth’s (1969, Howard, J. A., & Sheth, J. N. (1969). The theory of buyer behavior. New York, NY: Wiley), and Miles, R. E., & Snow, C. C.’s (1978, Miles, R. E., & Snow, C. C. (1978). Organizational strategy, structure, and process. [A. D. Meyer, collaborator; H. J. Coleman Jr., contributor]. New York, NY: McGraw Hill) typologies of organizations’ strategy configurations (e.g., “Prospectors, Analyzers, and Defenders”) are iconic examples of formulating theory at the case identification level. When testing such theories, most researchers automatically, nonconsciously, switch from building theory of beliefs, attitudes, and behavior at the case identification level to empirically testing of two-directional relationships and additive net-effect influences of variables. Formulating theory focusing on creating case identification hypotheses (CIH) to describe, explain, and predict behavior and then empirically testing at SVH is a mismatch and results in shallow data analysis and frequently inaccurate contributions to theory. This chapter describes the mismatch and resulting unattractive outcomes as well as the pervasive practice of examining only fit validity in empirical studies using symmetric tests. The chapter reviews studies in the literature showing how matching both case-based theory and empirical positivist research of CIH is possible and produces findings that advance useful theory and critical thinking by executives and researchers.

The main objective of this research is to examine the nature of the image of shopping malls and to contrast the reliability of two models that analyse the attraction of retail trade; in the first model, image, distance and preference are considered; whereas in the second, preference is omitted. The initial hypothesis is that the apparently lower power of attraction of the image, compared to that of the distance, may be justified, in some way, by the modelling of a relationship that omits preference. The methodology applied uses a variety of multidimensional techniques to identify image dimensions, together with two focuses, the two‐stage versus the uni‐equational, to define retail trade attraction. As a result of the application in the suburban commercial setting of Alicante, three image dimensions are detected in the malls, as well as the superiority of the uni‐stage modelling in which the influence of preference on retail attraction is omitted.

The purpose of this paper is to propose a model for the behaviors of consumers engaged in fan activity and test to see if that model simulates the movement of consumers among the proposed levels of fan behaviors.

Support for the proposed model is examined through the literature, a series of structured interviews with fans are evaluated using first qualitative, then quantitative methodologies for evidence of the hypothesized model.

The research indicates moderate support for the three‐level model first proposed by Hill et al.

Given the moderate support found for the model, further research could serve to offer stronger evidence, as well as to examine the extinguishing process by which a fan exits the subculture.

The research identifies members and levels of the fan subculture that marketing professionals should target when offering products and services aimed at those segments.

This paper tests a model which has previously only existed as a theory, utilizing methodologies that integrate qualitative and quantitative research.

At the time of its demise in 2001, the Enron Corporation could boast of its comprehensive, state-of-the-art management control and governance systems. Yet these controls were rendered ineffective in the company's last few years. This article identifies the radical change in Enron's corporate culture that took place from the Lay-Kinder era (1986–1996) to the Lay-Skilling era (1997–2001). It argues that this was a major cause of neutralizing these controls, which in turn proved to be a major factor in Enron's fall into bankruptcy. The article draws on Schein's (1993, Legitimating clinical research in the study of organizational culture, Journal of Counselling and Development, 71, 703–708; 1996, 2004) framework of cultural practice to develop our analysis. Thus, it supports Simon's (1990, 1995) urging to more meaningfully include corporate culture in management control research studies. The article contributes to the literature by drawing attention to the rich but untold story of Enron's governance and control and also extends the research linking corporate culture and control systems.