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Euro-area may avoid recession in 2023

Location:

EURO-AREA

The macroeconomic impact of the war in Ukraine has been less serious for the euro-area than initially feared

Somali military offensive faces expansion challenge

Location:

SOMALIA

The government is preparing to expand an anti-jihadist operation that has enjoyed huge success, albeit in a limited area

ECB may extend QE to support recovery

Location:

EUROPE

Weaker-than-expected global growth may dampen euro-area recovery, requiring further monetary stimulus

Conflicts exacerbate African food insecurity

Location:

AFRICA

Several countries are at risk of famine, particularly in areas with ongoing fighting

Climate change poses many threats to the Middle East

Location:

MIDDLE EAST

Areas around the Gulf are especially vulnerable to extreme weather, spiking heat, freshwater shortages and flooding

ECB will ease monetary policy further on March 10

Location:

EURO-AREA

Downside risks, tightening of financial conditions and weak inflation dynamics

Latin America's 'shadow governance' zones are unstable

Location:

LATIN AMERICA

Turf wars and the evolution of armed groups threaten to trigger violent shifts in established illicitly-governed areas

'Brexit' and 'Grexit' risk collision in May

Location:

EURO-AREA

Europe's political risk will be highest in May, just as the UK general election raises the prospect of 'Brexit'

Risks and opportunities 2019 - America First

Location:

INT

Cohesive and confrontational policies will emerge from the White House in critical areas

Beijing and Washington have room for compromises

Location:

CHINA-UNITED STATES

Partial compromises in some areas could de-escalate the current China-US confrontation in the short term