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The purpose of this paper is to fill an existing gap in the field. A transaction-based hotel price index for Europe is constructed to provide a true measure for hotel real estate performance. The index will enable investors enhance investment decisions in many ways: to assess individual property performance; to make an objective decision about where to invest and in which property type; to assess the relative performance of hotel assets to all other sectors and consequently reach optimal funds allocation decisions. This will allow investors to time their acquisitions/disposals according to the hotel property cycle.

Data include 495 hotel property transactions in Europe during the period between 2004 and 2013. Transaction prices and property characteristics were collected from a variety sources published by hotel agents and consultants, property magazines, newspapers, tourist board, individual property and hotel association registers and web sites. Data include property name, sale price, size, time of sale, location, buyers and sellers. A hedonic pricing model is developed where the transaction price is regressed on the different characteristics. The index is calculated by taking the anti-logs of regression coefficients of the year index.

This paper claims that the hotel property price index (HPPI) portrays a more realistic picture of what happened to hotel property prices in 2008 showing a single digit negative growth vs the hotel valuation index which reports a double digit negative growth rate in European hotel prices during the same year. The real impact of recession showed on hotel property prices in 2009. HPPI shows a crash in hotel property prices by -23.7 per cent in 2009. The year 2011 was marked by more sales transacted through administrators and a looming double-dip recession. Unlike appraisal-based indices, HPPI does not suffer from sticky valuation issues and is not desensitise from distressed properties. Therefore, it was more volatile to distressed situations throughout the period between 2011 and 2013.

Results of this study should be considered with caution. There are limitations associated with transaction data including incompleteness or inaccuracies regarding price data, financing information for each deal, property tenure, and property characteristics.

This work has successfully developed an HPPI for hotel property in Europe. This paper paves the way for transaction-based indices that are more volatile than existing appraisal-based indices. This represents a significant development in tracking price movements of hotel properties in Europe. The index has potential to support research and forecasting of the hotel property cycles.

This paper fulfils an identified need to track hotel property prices and timing the hotel property cycle.

This paper aims to analyze the statistical characteristics of changes in property forward prices. As highlighted in a survey conducted at the MIT Center for Real Estate in 2006, the relatively weak understanding in their prices is one of the most important barriers in their use. In this context, the analysis of the forward price term structure is essential. Do the short- and long-term forward prices behave similarly? Do property derivatives behave like other derivative assets or other related assets? This study also investigates the lead–lag relationship between spot and forward returns for different maturities.

Using four years and nine months of data on the UK Investment Property Databank (IPD), all property total return swaps are examined. We strip the swaps into their forwards and study their statistical characteristics (the first four moments and their autocorrelation levels). The relationships among the forward contracts, the underlying asset (IPD index and IPD unsmoothed) and other assets (risk-free rate, listed real estate) are explored. Using the Yiu et al. (2005) methodology, the lead–lag relationship between the spot and the forwards is assessed.

The index appears to be significantly less volatile and less efficient, in terms of correlation than its own derivative contracts. Moreover, changes in forward prices are leading indicators of the IPD index. Their risks tend to converge with the implied volatility of the REIT’s operating asset but without being affected by the general stock market risks. Regarding the forward price–discovery function, investors should collect information not only from the spot market but also, maybe primarily, from the derivative market.

In this paper, we use a never-exploited database that is relative to the quotes of the UK IPD swaps. It is the first attempt to analyze the statistical characteristics of their changes. Our results show that these prices are clearly superior to the spot series, in terms of risks but without behaving affected by the tyranny of the past values. These findings may conduct to consider new methods to unsmooth current real estate indices. Characterized by a strong sensitivity to the changes in the information set, property derivative-based indicators should lead to increased efficiency in the spot market.

Price indices for commercial real estate markets are difficult to construct because assets are heterogeneous, they are spatially dispersed and they are infrequently traded. Appraisal-based indices are one response to these problems, but may understate volatility or fail to capture turning points in a timely manner. This paper estimates “transaction linked indices” for major European markets to see whether these offer a different perspective on market performance. The paper aims to discuss these issues.

The assessed value method is used to construct the indices. This has been recently applied to commercial real estate datasets in the USA and UK. The underlying data comprise appraisals and sale prices for assets monitored by Investment Property Databank (IPD). The indices are compared to appraisal-based series for the countries concerned for Q4 2001 to Q4 2012.

Transaction linked indices show stronger growth and sharper declines over the course of the cycle, but they do not notably lead their appraisal-based counterparts. They are typically two to four times more volatile.

Only country-level indicators can be constructed in many cases owing to low trading volumes in the period studied, and this same issue prevented sample selection bias from being analysed in depth.

Discussion of the utility of transaction-based price indicators is extended to European commercial real estate markets. The indicators offer alternative estimates of real estate market volatility that may be useful in asset allocation and risk modelling, including in a regulatory context.

While the development of real estate derivative contracts has important implications for real estate as an asset class, it has not been widely accepted in Asia. This paper aims to examine the issues involved in developing the real estate derivative market for Singapore.

The concept of real estate derivatives is reviewed. The limitations to the extant real estate index are discussed. Different approaches to constructing real estate indices are discussed in particular reference to the features of the Singapore real estate market.

The Singapore residential market is dominated by public housing, heterogeneity and relatively low turnover. The applicability of repeat sales approach may not be well suited. Geostatistical models appear promising. The commercial real estate market suffers from even lower turnover. The most appropriate commercial real estate index could be similar to that offered by IPD. Several issues were also highlighted. First, the index must pass the stringent scrutiny of academia and experts. Second, the index must be well understood and accepted by the industry. Third, the index must be published in a timely fashion and without biases. Fourth, there must be a trustworthy producer of the index.

For an index to be accepted, it must satisfy the issue of fungibility. International investors looking for exposure or hedging strategies are likely to be familiar with established methodologies such as the repeat sales and appraisal‐based approaches.

Market acceptability of RED. If the experience in Europe is anything to go by, this is not an insurmountable issue that cannot be addressed with education and knowledge dissemination.

While real estate derivatives have immense potential and a tremendous growth in its development in Europe has been witnessed, it is clear that the real estate derivative industry is in its infancy. The paper examines the issues peculiar to Singapore with regard to the establishment of real estate derivative contracts. The paper is of interest to policy makers and industry practitioners.

This paper aims to find out whether lagging problems exist within Hong Kong's office values.

A State Space Model with the Kalman filter is deployed in detecting the extent of lagging errors in Hong Kong's office price indices, proffered by the ratings and valuation department (RVD).

The findings suggest that about one year of lagging errors exists in RVD's office price indices compared with the stock market property indices. Also, the finding suggests that the Kalman filter provides a more efficient form of estimates for real estate values and returns.

While most studies investigating lagging problems of appraisal‐based returns concentrate on the US real estate market, studies in this regard for Asian countries (or cities) are few and far between. Hong Kong, in particular, is worth studying, considering its established role as a financial centre in South East Asia. This paper also provides some insights for further studies on the prediction of future real estate values, in particular those with fewer transactions.

Tests the inflation‐hedging effectiveness of Swiss real estate. Four proxies for expected inflation are used, two of them being based on autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity models (ARCH‐M and QTARCH). The series used to proxy for real estate returns is a transactions‐based series adjusted for quality of the buildings by means of a hedonic model. Swiss stocks, bonds, real estate and real estate mutual funds are usually positively related to expected inflation and negatively related to unexpected inflation. Many of these coefficients, however, do not exhibit statistical significance.

Investment in Australia’s property market, whether directly or indirectly through Australian real estate investment trusts (A-REITs), grew remarkably since the 1990s. The degree of segregation between the property market and other financial assets, such as shares and bonds, can influence the diversification benefits within multi-asset portfolios. This raises the question of whether direct and indirect property investments are substitutable. Establishing how information transmits between asset classes and impacts the predictability of returns is of interest to investors. The paper aims to discuss these issues.

The authors study the linkages between direct and indirect Australian property sectors from 1985 to 2013, with shares and bonds. This paper employs an Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA) process to de-smooth a valuation-based direct property index. The authors establish directional lead-lag relationships between markets using bi-variate Granger causality tests. Johansen cointegration tests are carried out to examine how direct and indirect property markets adjust to an equilibrium long-term relationship and short-term deviations from such a relationship with other asset classes.

The authors find the use of appraisal-based property data creates a smoothing bias which masks the extent of how information is transmitted between the indirect property sector, stock and bond markets, and influences returns. The authors demonstrate that an ARFIMA process accounting for a smoothing bias up to lags of four quarters can overcome the overstatement of the smoothing bias from traditional AR models, after individually appraised constituent properties are aggregated into an overall index. The results show that direct property adjusts to information transmitted from market-traded A-REITs and stocks.

The study shows direct property investments and A-REITs are substitutible in a multi-asset portfolio in the long and short term.

The authors apply an ARFIMA(p,d,q) model to de-smooth Australian property returns, as proposed by Bond and Hwang (2007). The authors expect the findings will contribute to the discussion on whether direct property and REITs are substitutes in a multi-asset portfolio.

Provides a review of basic appraisal and statistical principles combined with a simple numerical simulation. Suggests two main directions in which the appraisal profession should move. First, because public stock exchanges tend to be more informationally efficient than private property markets, appraisal accuracy can be improved by making increased quantitative use of the information in the share prices of publicly‐traded property companies. Second, it must be recognized that the valuation techniques which are optimal for individual property appraisal are suboptimal for the mass appraisal of aggregate portfolios or indexes of property market values. Suggests that regression‐based techniques based purely on transaction prices may be superior for this latter function.

This paper seeks to investigate the nature and magnitude of the distortion in appraisal land price information according to change in the market, with a special focus on the Government's Published Land Prices.

In Japan, there is an item of land price information, so‐called Koji‐Chika (PLPS: Published Land Price Information System), that is a survey of fair market value by the qualified appraisers. The valuation error of this land price information was analyzed using the following method. First, hedonic price indices were constructed based on both actual transaction prices and the Published Land Prices, they were then compared to detect possible distortions in the governmental price information. Also the possibility of structural change in the Japanese real estate markets was studied and its effect on price indices was considered. Analysis of the Tokyo metropolitan area in Japan took place between 1975 and 1999

Large and systematic discrepancies between actual transaction prices and the Published Land Prices were identified, which might suggest that there are serious problems in the governmental information system. It is believed that it is necessary to consider this issue in the context of the entire real estate appraisal system in Japan.

Limitations stem from the nature of Japanese data. Future research will seek to look at values on an IPD index.

The land market in Tokyo experienced a so‐called Bubble economy, and the rapid rise and fall of the land price were generated for this period.