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The purpose of this paper is to explore tourism scenario planning for an anticipated shock as viewed through the lens of Irish hospitality managers preparing for Brexit. The research appropriates a climate science framework to structure the study, situating preparations, or lack thereof, against the themes of volatility, exposure and resilience.

The research uses a qualitative, pragmatic approach to determine how senior Irish hospitality managers were preparing for Britain’s exit from the European Union. Semi-structured interviews were used to gather data conducted with hotel management, industry federations and tourism policymakers.

Buoyancy of the industry, from an industry perspective, little foreseeable threat to the sector, has caused management to develop complacent tendencies, a myopic viewpoint and a head-in-the-sand mindset. Their “wait and see” and “ad hoc” approaches to planning for an anticipated shock suggest an industry that believes itself to be resistant to threats.

The findings suggest that although tourism has been resilient to economic shocks in the past, historical lessons learned have not been implemented in anticipation of the next shock. More proactive engagement and better strategic preparedness is necessary to mitigate the impacts of future shocks. Industry needs to acknowledge its role in developing resilience and reducing volatility and exposure. The government additionally needs to coordinate initiatives with industry to develop robustness.

The paper demonstrates areas of practice in the hospitality industry that could be improved to reduce volatility and exposure, enhance resilience and encourage rapid adaptability post crisis.

本研究通过爱尔兰酒店管理者为英国脱欧做准备的视角, 探讨了为预期的冲击所做的旅游场景规划。本文采用了气候科学的框架来搭建研究结构, 将准备工作或准备工作的缺失定位在波动、风险和恢复力的主题上。

本研究采用了一种定性的、务实的方法, 来探索爱尔兰酒店高级管理人员是如何为英国脱欧做准备的。英国脱欧对爱尔兰旅游业可能产生重大影响。本文采用半结构化访谈收集数据, 与酒店管理、行业联盟和政策制定者进行了访谈。

该行业现在正蓬勃发展, 而且从行业的角度看, 脱欧对该行业几乎没有可预见的威胁, 这导致该行业内的行动者产生了自满倾向、短视观点和逃避现实的心态。他们采取“观望”和“专门化”的办法来为预期的冲击做准备, 表明该行业相信自己能够抵御威胁。

调查结果表明, 尽管旅游业在过去一直能抵御经济冲击, 但积累的规划经验尚未为即将到来的下一个预期冲击付诸实施。为了减轻未来冲击的影响, 更积极的参与和更好的战略准备是必要的。行业需要认识到自己在增加恢复力、减少波动性和风险方面的作用。政府需要与行业协调行动, 以激发企业的活力。

本文展示了酒店行业的一些实践领域, 这些领域可以得到改善, 以减少波动性和风险, 增强弹性, 并鼓励危机后的快速适应。

El estudio explora la planificación de escenarios turísticos ante una crisis anticipada por el Brexit, desde la perspectiva de los gerentes hoteleros irlandeses que se preparan para ella. La investigación utiliza el marco de la ciencia climática para estructurar el estudio, confrontando los preparativos, o la falta de ellos, con la volatilidad, el riesgo y la resiliencia.

La investigación utilizó un enfoque cualitativo y pragmático para determinar cómo se están preparando los altos directivos hoteleros irlandeses para la salida de Gran Bretaña de la Unión Europea, un evento con un gran impacto potencial en el turismo irlandés. Los datos fueron recogidos a través de entrevistas semiestructuradas realizadas a los gerentes hoteleros, las federaciones sectoriales y los responsables políticos.

Los resultados sugieren que, aunque el turismo ha resistido las crisis económicas en el pasado, las lecciones aprendidas en la planificación no se han aplicado para prevenir el próximo impacto previsto en el horizonte. Es necesario un compromiso más proactivo y una mejor preparación estratégica para mitigar los efectos de las crisis futuras. La industria debe reconocer su papel en el desarrollo de la resiliencia y la reducción de la volatilidad y el riesgo. El gobierno necesita coordinar iniciativas con el sector para estimular su solidez.

En el documento se ponen de manifiesto las áreas de actividad del sector hotelero que podrían mejorarse para reducir la volatilidad y el riesgo, aumentar la resiliencia y fomentar la capacidad de adaptación rápida después de una crisis.

The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of remittance inflow on households’ savings behaviour in Bangladesh. Remittances are considered as the countercyclical flow of income for its recipient economies. It surges the liquidity of the households receiving remittances, allows them to endure local economic shocks and facilitates them to practice productive activities. Remittances often form a big pool of resources for investment which complement the national savings and support the country’s growth through higher rates of capital accumulation. Therefore, if a significant portion of the remittance is used for savings it can lead to prominent economic growth in the long term.

Existing literature indicates remittance-receiving households have a greater propensity to use remittance income to meet basic consumption. However, based on the survey conducted by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics on remittances and household savings (SIR, 2016) and using the ordinary least square regression analysis method, to identify the connection between remittances and household’s saving (SIR, 2016) and using the ordinary least square regression analysis method, to identify the connection between remittances and household’s savings behaviour in Bangladesh.

The findings of this study represent remittances encourage households to pursue different kinds of savings in Bangladesh. Savings are made in the form of opening savings accounts, deposit pension scheme/fixed deposits/Bonds, insurance policies, also savings through non-governmental organizations, cooperative societies and savings at home. Other than remittances the demographic characteristics of the household head also influence the savings choices.

To enable the implementation of appropriate policies to boost savings, analysis from both perspectives; the household and the national level, requires strong vigilance and surveillance.

Using data for a sample of advanced and developing countries, this paper aims to study the responses of monetary growth and the growth of government spending to external spillovers, namely, the growth of exports and imports, movement in the real effective exchange rate and the change in the oil price. The objective is to study movements in domestic policy variables in open economies that are vulnerable to trade and commodity price shocks.

The analysis evaluates correlations between the responses of the policy variables to external spillovers. Further, the analysis studies the effects of indicators of economic performance on domestic policy responses to various shifts across countries.

Higher variability of real and nominal growth increases the fiscal policy response to external spillovers with an aim to stem further variability. Monetary policies appear to be more responsive to trend price inflation with an aim to stem further inflationary pressures. Fiscal policy’s reaction to trend price inflation aims at striking a balance between countering potential inflationary pressures, as well as recessionary conditions attributed to the various spillovers.

Overall, the evidence points to the importance of trade and commodity price shifts to the design of domestic policies. Further indicators of economic performance differentiate the degree of policy responses to trade and commodity price developments with a goal to stem inflationary pressures and reduce aggregate uncertainty.

The paper aims to examine the effects of exchange rate fluctuations on real output, the price level, and the real value of components of aggregate demand in Egypt and Turkey.

Building on a theoretical model that decomposes movements in the exchange rate into anticipated and unanticipated components, the empirical investigation traces the effects through demand and supply channels.

In Turkey, anticipated exchange rate appreciation has significant adverse effects, contracting the growth of real output and the demand for investment and exports, while raising price inflation. Random fluctuations in Turkey have asymmetric effects that highlight the importance of unanticipated depreciation in shrinking output growth and the growth of private consumption and investment, despite an increase in export growth. In Egypt, anticipated exchange rate appreciation decreases export growth. Given asymmetry, the net effect of unanticipated exchange rate fluctuations, in Egypt, decreases real output and consumption growth and increases export growth, on average, over time.

In light of the country‐specific evidence, future research should extend the investigation using panel estimation, incorporating various demand and supply shocks along with exchange rate fluctuations, to establish the relative importance of various shocks on macroeconomic performance across MENA countries.

While adhering to a flexible exchange rate policy to boost competitiveness, managing fundamentals to reduce excessive volatility impinging on the economic system over time should top the policy agenda.

Excessive volatility in the real effective exchange rate could be detrimental to real growth, over time, as the evidence for Turkey and Egypt illustrates.

A vector autoregression model estimated on US data before and after 1980 documents systematic differences in the response of short- and long-term interest rates, corporate bond spreads and durable spending to news total factor productivity shocks. Interest rates across the maturity spectrum broadly increase in the pre-1980s and broadly decline in the post-1980s. Corporate bond spreads decline significantly, and durable spending rises significantly in the post-1980 period while the opposite short-run response is observed in the pre-1980 period. Measuring expectations of future monetary policy rates conditional on a news shock suggests that the Federal Reserve has adopted a restrictive stance before the 1980s with the goal of retaining control over inflation while adopting a neutral/accommodative stance in the post-1980 period.

In recent years, housing prices in Brazil have shown a surprising growth. An important issue is trying to understand what elements can explain this behavior. This study aims to investigate the hypothesis that a generalized optimism associated with government policies directed to the housing sector may be behind the behavior of real estate prices. This study develops a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model to investigate these issues. The results showed that subsidies combined with the easing of credit conditions were able to positively influence real estate prices. Moreover, unanticipated shocks had a greater impact on housing prices than anticipated shocks.

The DSGE model was developed to analyze the relationship between economic agents’ expectations about future economic developments, also known in the literature as “news shocks,” expansionary fiscal policy and housing prices in Brazil. The economy is composed of families, entrepreneurs, final goods firms, a financial sector and a fiscal authority. Families are divided into two groups: patients or savers and impatient or debtors. They differ in terms of their intertemporal discount factors. Both provide labor for firms producing non-durable goods. Impatient families are restricted in the amount of borrowing they can take. The production side of economy model is given by the consumer goods production sector. The financial sector is composed of a representative bank that pays the deposits made by patient families and channels resources for the granting of housing loans with the accumulation of assets subject to regulatory restrictions.

The results show that both price subsidies and subsidized interest rates exerted a positive influence on housing prices in Brazil. In response to a housing demand shock, housing prices display a greater increase the greater are the subsidies to low income families. The authors show that anticipated shocks have a larger impact on housing prices than unexpected shocks. Therefore, the results support the idea that the wave of good news, optimistic behavior and government policies aimed at the housing sector were behind the behavior of housing prices in Brazil.

There are some studies applied to the Brazilian economy that mention some of these stimuli. In this study, the authors focused on studies proposed by Mendonça et al. (2011), Mendonça (2013), Silva et al. (2014) and Besarria et al. (2016). In general, the authors show that there is a negative relationship between monetary policy instruments and real estate prices. This paper differs from these authors by considering the effects of government subsidies, subsidized interest rates and anticipated shocks from a DSGE model, thus explicitly addressing their effects on housing prices in Brazil.

The paper aims to examine asymmetry in the cyclical behavior of private consumption in a sample of nine developing countries in the Middle East.

The empirical model includes three policy variables: government spending, the money supply, and the exchange rate. Anticipated movements in these variables are likely to vary with agents' forecasts of macroeconomic fundamentals and, therefore, determine planned consumption. Unanticipated policy changes, in contrast, determine cyclical consumption.

The results indicate that fluctuations in private consumption are mostly cyclical. The stabilizing function of policy shocks varies across countries and appears to be asymmetric within countries.

Asymmetry necessitates a thorough evaluation of the positive and negative effects attributed to changes in policy variables and the necessary reforms to relax binding constraints.

The authors explore the hypothesis that some movements in commodity prices are anticipated (news shocks) and can trigger aggregate fluctuations in small open emerging economies. This paper aims to discuss the aforementioned objective.

The authors build a multi-sector dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with endogenous commodity production. There are five exogenous processes: a country-specific interest rate shock that responds to commodity price fluctuations, a productivity (TFP) shock for each sector and a commodity price shock. Both TFP and commodity price shocks are composed of unanticipated and anticipated components.

The authors show that news shocks to commodity prices lead to higher output, investment and consumption, and a countercyclical movement in the trade-balance-to-output ratio. The authors also show that commodity price news shocks explain about 24% of output aggregate fluctuations in the small open economy.

Given the importance of both anticipated and unanticipated commodity price shocks, policymakers should pay attention to developments in commodity markets when designing policies to attenuate the business cycles. Future research should investigate the design of optimal fiscal and monetary policies in SOE subject to news shocks in commodity prices.

This paper contributes to the knowledge of the sources of fluctuations in emerging economies highlighting the importance of a new source: news shocks in commodity prices.

Much has been written about trade deal opportunities after Brexit (e.g. Minford et al., 2017; Singham and Tylecote, 2018) but much less about envisaged “supply side mechanisms” that would translate a Brexit shock into improved UK competitive performance. Indications as to the supply side mechanisms involved can be found in some pro-Brexit writings and speeches and revolve around cutting regulation and reducing taxation, to spur innovation entrepreneurship. The authors contend that these measures align to a broad set of policy measures associated with Economic Shock Therapy, the Laffer Curve and the associated “Washington Consensus” (Williamson, 2005). The authors are looking to stimulate a conversation around whether these measures are most likely to stimulate entrepreneurial innovation and growth. The authors open by contrasting these concepts to growth equilibrium dynamics drawn from Wicksell, Keynes and Schumpeter – and by implication dynamic Walrasian General Equilibrium – to pose the question, is entrepreneur-led growth best led via slashing regulations and taxes or by focussing on correcting existing market failures? The purpose of this paper is to promote controversy and debate as to which “supply side measures” are most effective in enabling entrepreneurial growth.

The authors briefly review the pro-Brexiteer economic framework and relate this to broader Economic Shock Therapy and Laffer Curve concepts; how these have been applied and how some argue they can become “supply side” enablers in a positive Brexit innovation and entrepreneurship transformation. By drawing upon fundamental economic relationships such as Wicksell’s (1898) “Natural Rate of Interest”, the authors highlight the importance of information asymmetry and regulatory distortion in financial markets, resulting in some entrepreneurs (and associated innovations) failing to receive the capital their project merit. The authors pose the question, whether Shock Therapy, Laffer Curve type tax cuts and any Brexit “bonfire of regulation” will raise entrepreneurial growth and success.

Both Shock Therapy and Laffer Curve inspired tax cuts have a patchy record of success, despite notable achievements in post-1991 Poland. The authors stress entrepreneurs drive innovation and growth, and a key support to them requires correcting “access to finance” market failures. It is questionable if Economic Shocks contribute anything to resolving this fundamental problem.

The authors open the supply side debate on anticipated “Brexit Transformation” in the context of long standing (some maybe long forgotten) theoretical understandings, thereby posing the question as to whether potential Brexit-related deregulation, tax cuts and “Economic Shock” therapy are likely to raise entrepreneurial competitive advantage and success rates. Market failure in financial market support for small firm growth and innovation needs are highlighted. Arguably, economic growth and innovation would be better sustained by addressing these failures, than introducing the “unknowns” and risks associated with a substantial Economic Shock.

Using quarterly data for a sample of 17 industrial countries, the purpose of this paper is to study asymmetry in the face of monetary shocks compared to government spending shocks.

The paper outlines demand and supply channels determining the asymmetric effects of monetary and fiscal policies. The time‐series model is presented and an analysis of the difference in the asymmetric effects of monetary and fiscal shocks within countries is presented. There then follows an investigation of the relevance of demand and supply conditions to the asymmetric effects of monetary and fiscal shocks. The implications of asymmetry are contrasted across countries.

Fluctuations in real output growth, price inflation, wage inflation, and real wage growth vary with respect to anticipated and unanticipated shifts to the money supply, government spending, and the energy price. The asymmetric flexibility of prices appears a major factor in differentiating the expansionary and contractionary effects of fiscal and monetary shocks. Higher price inflation, relative to deflation, exacerbates output contraction, relative to expansion, in the face of monetary shocks. In contrast, larger price deflation, relative to inflation, moderates output contraction, relative to expansion in the face of government spending shocks. The growth of output and the real wage decreases, on average, in the face of monetary variability in many countries. Moreover, the growth of real output and the real wage increases, on average, in the face of government spending variability in many countries. Asymmetry differentiates the effects of monetary and government spending shocks within and across countries. The degree and direction of asymmetry provide a new dimension to differentiate between monetary and fiscal tools in the design of stabilization policies.

The paper's evidence sheds light on the validity of theoretical models explaining asymmetry in the effects of demand‐side stabilization policies. Moreover, the evidence should alert policy makers to the need to relax structural and institutional constraints to maximize the benefits of stabilization policies and minimize the adverse effects on economic variables.