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This study explores the integration of smallholder farmers into the export market in Vietnam, an emerging economy. By introducing a prospective framework, we seek to provide insight into factors that influence this integration process.

This study examines the expected growth and entry of Vietnamese smallholder farmers into high-value export markets. We collected information from 200 independent farmers as well as from five local extension workers, who provided information on 50 farmers.

The study reveals that the adoption of new business models is more influential than the variables traditionally included in models of export-market integration in predicting expected growth and entry into high-value export markets. In addition, the results highlight divergent views between farmers and extension workers regarding the role of collectors, with farmers perceiving collectors as potential partners, while extension workers see them as impediments to growth.

The prospective model presented in this study highlights the importance of policy interventions aimed at promoting new business models and addressing infrastructure and capital constraints for the sustainable transformation of agricultural sectors in emerging markets.

This is one of the first articles to apply a prospective approach to export-market integration and demonstrate its efficacy through an empirical study. The suggested prospective approach could facilitate the design of policies aimed at export-market integration within the context of dynamic, emerging markets.