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After a brief glance at the global labour market after the financial meltdown the paper aims to explain some general mechanisms of short‐time work in Germany. Furthermore it seeks to present an overview of the costs of short‐time work for the establishments with respect to the latest labour market reforms in Germany. In the multivariate analyses with the IAB Establishment Panel the paper aims to identify the determinants of short‐time work and its intensity in Germany. Thus it's goal is to contribute to the discussion of the modified and amended legislative framework for short‐time work.

The microeconometric analysis is based on data from the IAB Establishment Panel, a representative survey of the labour demand in Germany. With data from the survey waves 2008‐2010 the probability of the use of short‐time work with probit regression models and its intensity with truncated regression models are explained.

The manufacturing industry as a German key industry was more affected than other sectors and suffered even harder. Despite the fact that the German labour administration has successfully reduced the bureaucracy of short‐time work, the programme is still rather adopted by bigger establishments. German establishments have utilized their flexibility reserves and complementary short‐time work to protect their core staff during the crisis. There is also some empirical evidence that the establishments tried to avoid brain drains. With the first signs of a recovery of the economy at the beginning of 2010 the establishments benefitted a lot from that strategy as they were instantly able to satisfy increasing demands in their markets again. Empirical evidence is also found that establishments made more intensive use of short‐time work the harder they were suffering from the crisis.

For the first time the latest data from the survey wave 2010 of the IAB Establishment Panel is used and compared with the 2009 survey wave. The structure of the panel questionnaire allows the implementation of some specific questions concerning the use of short‐time work. The IAB Establishment Panel has a sample size of approximately 16,000 cases.

In Germany, the economic crisis 2008/09 was restricted to export-oriented industries such as automotive, chemistry, and mechanical engineering and hence to industries with a high proportion of qualified employees. Therefore, we expect the most current crisis to have a reversed effect on the relative earnings position between more and less qualified in contrast to a development that favored the more qualified since the beginning of the 1980s. Our empirical study is based on the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) Establishment Panel, a representative German establishment level panel data set that surveys information from almost 16,000 personal interviews with high ranked managers.

Despite the “German Job Miracle,” conditional difference-in-differences estimations to control for observed and unobserved heterogeneity reveal substantial employment reductions in establishments affected by the economic crisis. Falls in employment are strongest in plants with a relatively low proportion of qualified workers. Furthermore, our results indicate that the economic crisis is associated with a decline in wages, but only in those establishments that do not operate working time accounts. In sum, we do not find evidence for the current crisis having a reversed effect on the relative earnings position. Obviously once again, the higher qualified are better off than the lower qualified.