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In this paper, the authors attempt to understand how labour market attachment during the ages of 30–59 influences individuals' transition out of the labour market.

Using high-quality Swedish register data, the authors follow individuals born in 1950 and observe their labour market attachment during mid-life and their exit from the labour market.

The authors find evidence that labour market attachment in different stages of the career is differently related to exit from the labour market. At the age of 30, as well as between the ages 50–59, low attachment is related with earlier exit from the labour market. On the contrary, low labour market attachment during the ages 40–49 is related with later exit from the labour market. However, regardless of age, lower labour market attachment increases the risk of work-related benefit receipt in the exit year. The authors also find evidence that gender, migration status and childhood socioeconomic disadvantages may represent obstacles to longer working lives, while high education is a consistent factor in avoiding early exit from the labour market.

This study provides insights on the link between labour market attachment in different stages of the career and the exit from the labour market as well as work-related benefits dependency in the year of exit.

Driven by the aim to increase the participation of older people in the labour force and to extend people's working lives, the Swedish Parliament passed a bill in 1998 to increase the pension eligibility age from 60 to 61 years and establish a notional defined-contribution (NDC) plan. In this article, the authors investigate the impacts towards the prolongation of working lives expected from such an intervention.

The authors apply a multinomial probabilistic model based on Swedish registry data on the birth cohorts 1937–1938 (n = 102,826) and observe differences in exit behaviour between eligible and non-eligible individuals.

The authors find that the cohorts eligible to the pension reform exit the labour market at a later age compared to non-eligible cohorts at the 61-years cut-off. The authors also find that the effect persists in the long term. Furthermore, the authors find that both men and women are equally struck by the reform.

While there exist many descriptive reports and theoretical analyses on the costs and benefits of pension reforms, this study is the first one to empirically analyse the effect of the first European NDC pay-as-you go pension plan on the potential exclusion of old-aged workers.