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Article
Publication date: 5 February 2018

Syed Zulfiqar Ali Shah, Maqsood Ahmad and Faisal Mahmood

This paper aims to clarify the mechanism by which heuristics influences the investment decisions of individual investors, actively trading on the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX)…

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Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to clarify the mechanism by which heuristics influences the investment decisions of individual investors, actively trading on the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX), and the perceived efficiency of the market. Most studies focus on well-developed financial markets and very little is known about investors’ behaviour in less developed financial markets or emerging markets. The present study contributes to filling this gap in the literature.

Design/methodology/approach

Investors’ heuristic biases have been measured using a questionnaire, containing numerous items, including indicators of speculators, investment decisions and perceived market efficiency variables. The sample consists of 143 investors trading on the PSX. A convenient, purposively sampling technique was used for data collection. To examine the relationship between heuristic biases, investment decisions and perceived market efficiency, hypotheses were tested by using correlation and regression analysis.

Findings

The paper provides empirical insights into the relationship of heuristic biases, investment decisions and perceived market efficiency. The results suggest that heuristic biases (overconfidence, representativeness, availability and anchoring) have a markedly negative impact on investment decisions made by individual investors actively trading on the PSX and on perceived market efficiency.

Research limitations/implications

The primary limitation of the empirical review is the tiny size of the sample. A larger sample would have given more trustworthy results and could have empowered a more extensive scope of investigation.

Practical implications

The paper encourages investors to avoid relying on heuristics or their feelings when making investments. It provides awareness and understanding of heuristic biases in investment management, which could be very useful for decision makers and professionals in financial institutions, such as portfolio managers and traders in commercial banks, investment banks and mutual funds. This paper helps investors to select better investment tools and avoid repeating expensive errors, which occur due to heuristic biases. They can improve their performance by recognizing their biases and errors of judgment, to which we are all prone, resulting in a more efficient market. So, it is necessary to focus on a specific investment strategy to control “mental mistakes” by investors, due to heuristic biases.

Originality/value

The current study is the first of its kind, focusing on the link between heuristics, individual investment decisions and perceived market efficiency within the specific context of Pakistan.

Details

Qualitative Research in Financial Markets, vol. 10 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1755-4179

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 11 November 2020

Maqsood Ahmad, Syed Zulfiqar Ali Shah and Yasar Abbass

This article aims to clarify the mechanism by which heuristic-driven biases influence the entrepreneurial strategic decision-making in an emerging economy.

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Abstract

Purpose

This article aims to clarify the mechanism by which heuristic-driven biases influence the entrepreneurial strategic decision-making in an emerging economy.

Design/methodology/approach

Entrepreneurs' heuristic-driven biases have been measured using a questionnaire, comprising numerous items, including indicators of entrepreneurial strategic decision-making. To examine the relationship between heuristic-driven biases and entrepreneurial strategic decision-making process, a 5-point Likert scale questionnaire has been used to collect data from the sample of 169 entrepreneurs who operate in small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). The collected data were analyzed using SPSS and Amos graphics software. Hypotheses were tested using structural equation modeling (SEM) technique.

Findings

The article provides empirical insights into the relationship between heuristic-driven biases and entrepreneurial strategic decision-making. The results suggest that heuristic-driven biases (anchoring and adjustment, representativeness, availability and overconfidence) have a markedly negative influence on the strategic decisions made by entrepreneurs in emerging markets. It means that heuristic-driven biases can impair the quality of the entrepreneurial strategic decision-making process.

Practical implications

The article encourages entrepreneurs to avoid relying on cognitive heuristics or their feelings when making strategic decisions. It provides awareness and understanding of heuristic-driven biases in entrepreneurial strategic decisions, which could be very useful for business actors such as entrepreneurs, managers and entire organizations. Understanding regarding the role of heuristic-driven biases in entrepreneurial strategic decisions may help entrepreneurs to improve the quality of their decision-making. They can improve the quality of their decision-making by recognizing their behavioral biases and errors of judgment, to which we are all prone, resulting in a more appropriate selection of entrepreneurial opportunities.

Originality/value

The current study is the first to focus on links between heuristic-driven bias and the entrepreneurial strategic decision-making in Pakistan—an emerging economy. This article enhanced the understanding of the role that heuristic-driven bias plays in the entrepreneurial strategic decisions and more importantly, it went some way toward enhancing understanding of behavioral aspects and their influence on entrepreneurial strategic decision-making in an emerging market. It also adds to the literature in the area of entrepreneurial management specifically the role of heuristics in entrepreneurial strategic decision-making; this field is in its initial stage, even in developed countries, while, in developing countries, little work has been done.

Details

Management Decision, vol. 59 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0025-1747

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 24 February 2021

Philipp Henrizi, Dario Himmelsbach and Stefan Hunziker

The purpose of this study is to illustrate the potentially detrimental effects on audit decision-making of certain judgmental heuristics, which can lead to systematic judgmental…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to illustrate the potentially detrimental effects on audit decision-making of certain judgmental heuristics, which can lead to systematic judgmental biases. This paper provides background on the heuristics and biases approaches to decision-making to increase auditors' awareness of the anchoring and adjustment effects affecting audit judgments adversely.

Design/methodology/approach

This study reports the results of an experimental research design analyzing the audit judgment of 85 auditors in Switzerland.

Findings

Based on the results of the experiment, the results indicate evidence on the existence of the anchoring and adjustment heuristic in Swiss audit judgments. The authors could identify an influence of the audit company size, the auditors' experience and the auditors' knowledge about behaviorism and anchor heuristic with regard to the anchoring and adjustment effect on audit judgment.

Research limitations/implications

The experimental tasks were relatively simple abstractions from the more complex analytical review situations faced by practicing auditors. Due to the small sample size, the authors cannot ensure representativeness of the results.

Practical implications

Professional judgment is a skill that auditor acquires overtime, combined with experience and knowledge, that allows him to achieve reasonable judgments, being independent of other opinions and free from material biases in a given circumstance. Our results show that auditors who are aware of biases and heuristics are less prone to judgment biases.

Originality/value

This paper is the first to analyze the impact of auditors' explicit experience and knowledge about behaviorism and anchor heuristic on the anchoring and adjustment effect on audit judgment. Through a stronger awareness of cognitive biases, a professional skepticism can be enhanced.

Details

Journal of Applied Accounting Research, vol. 22 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0967-5426

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 October 1999

William Hardin

Behavioral research is an accepted research paradigm in business disciplines outside of finance including management, marketing and accounting. This paper looks at these…

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Abstract

Behavioral research is an accepted research paradigm in business disciplines outside of finance including management, marketing and accounting. This paper looks at these disciplines and proposes goals for increasing acceptance of this form of research in real estate. Primary goals include investigation of actual heuristic use, concentration on expert decision makers, either as a group or in comparison to novices, incorporation of additional theory advocating functional heuristics, incorporation of real estate specific theory and identifying both theoretically and empirically when, why and how heuristic use may bias the decision process.

Details

Journal of Property Investment & Finance, vol. 17 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-578X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 26 July 2021

Shagufta Parveen, Zoya Wajid Satti, Qazi Abdul Subhan, Nishat Riaz, Samreen Fahim Baber and Taqadus Bashir

This study investigates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on investors' sentiments, behavioral biases and investment decisions in the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX).

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Abstract

Purpose

This study investigates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on investors' sentiments, behavioral biases and investment decisions in the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX).

Design/methodology/approach

The authors have assessed investors' behaviors and sentiments and the stock market overreaction during COVID-19 using a questionnaire and collected data from 401 investors trading in the PSX.

Findings

Results of structural equation modeling revealed that the COVID-19 pandemic affected investors' behaviors, investment decisions and trade volume. It created feelings of fear and uncertainty among market participants. Evidence suggests that behavioral heuristics and biases, including representative heuristic, anchoring heuristic, overconfidence bias and disposition effect, negatively influenced investors' decisions at the PSX.

Research limitations/implications

This study will contribute to behavioral finance literature in the context of developing countries as it has revealed the impact of COVID-19 on the emerging stock market, and its results are generalizable to other emerging stock markets.

Practical implications

The findings of this study will help academicians, researchers and policymakers of developing countries. Academicians can formulate new behavioral models that can depict the solutions of dealing with an uncertain situation like COVID-19. Policymakers like the Securities Exchange Commission and the PSX can formulate crisis management strategies based on behavioral finance concepts to cope with situations like COVID-19 in the future and help lessen investors' losses in the stock markets. The role of the Securities Exchange Commission is crucial as it regulates the financial markets. It can arrange workshops to educate investors to manage their decisions during crisis time and focus on the best use of irrational and rational decision-making at the same time using Lo (2004) adaptive market hypothesis.

Originality/value

The novelty of the paper is that the authors have introduced overconfidence and disposition effect as mediators that create a connection between representative and anchoring heuristics and investment decisions using primary data collected from investors (institutional and retail) to demonstrate the presence of psychological biases during COVID-19, and it has been done for the first time according to authors' knowledge. It is a contribution and addition to the behavioral finance literature in the context of developing countries' stock markets and their efficiency.

Details

Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, vol. 39 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1026-4116

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 December 1995

Anthony H. Presutti

Describes research which investigated the operation of the anchorand adjustment heuristic in the context of the continuing auditengagement. Specifically, the impact of information…

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Abstract

Describes research which investigated the operation of the anchor and adjustment heuristic in the context of the continuing audit engagement. Specifically, the impact of information concerning the previous year′s compliance test results was measured over several reported error rates from the current year′s compliance test results. The experimental instrument was applied to two classes of participants, audit practitioners from public accounting and from a government audit service. Each participant was required to supply an estimate of the total population error rate using the information given and the risk assessment methodology. The results of this empirical investigation determined that the addition of the previous year′s information appears to moderate the impact of the anchor and adjustment heuristic by reducing the decision makers′ confidence that the sample error rate represents an acceptable population error rate.

Details

Managerial Auditing Journal, vol. 10 no. 9
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0268-6902

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 11 June 2019

Sergio Da Silva, Raul Matsushita, Mariana Pereira and Mariê Fontana

This paper aims to revisit the issue of anchoring effects in real estate markets to consider the current dual-processing theory of mind.

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to revisit the issue of anchoring effects in real estate markets to consider the current dual-processing theory of mind.

Design/methodology/approach

The effects of high and low anchors in a price estimation task are, thus, explained by both Systems 1 and 2 as these play a key role in the guess of the “correct” list price. The authors also take into account the mediation of overconfidence in the estimates and how confidence relates to cognitive ability. Moreover, the authors nuance the field experiment by considering the decisions taken by professional real estate agents and amateur students alike because experts are expected to be less prone to cognitive biases.

Findings

The large anchoring index of 67 per cent found for the real estate agents suggests these professionals make their judgment unconsciously by priming (and thus, using their System 1), despite being overconfident. In contrast, an even larger anchoring index for the undergraduates (86 per cent) was found, as expected for nonexperts. However, the authors suggest the students’ judgments use their System 2 because they are clueless in their non-anchored estimates and, as result, consider the list prices as a heuristic to deliberately anchor and adjust.

Originality/value

Anchoring effects in real estate markets have not been approached so far by the dual-processing theory of mind.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 12 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 19 April 2024

Anthony K. Hunt, Jia Wang, Amin Alizadeh and Maja Pucelj

This paper aims to provide an elucidative and explanatory overview of decision-making theory that human resource management and development (HR) researchers and practitioners can…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to provide an elucidative and explanatory overview of decision-making theory that human resource management and development (HR) researchers and practitioners can use to explore the impact of heuristics and biases on organizational decisions, particularly within HR contexts.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper draws upon three theoretical resources anchored in decision-making research: the theory of bounded rationality, the heuristics and biases program, and cognitive-experiential self-theory (CEST). A selective narrative review approach was adopted to identify, translate, and contextualize research findings that provide immense applicability, connection, and significance to the field and study of HR.

Findings

The authors extract key insights from the theoretical resources surveyed and illustrate the linkages between HR and decision-making research, presenting a theoretical framework to guide future research endeavors.

Practical implications

Decades of decision-making research have been distilled into a digestible and accessible framework that offers both theoretical and practical implications.

Originality/value

Heuristics are mental shortcuts that facilitate quick decisions by simplifying complexity and reducing effort needed to solve problems. Heuristic strategies can yield favorable outcomes, especially amid time and information constraints. However, heuristics can also introduce systematic judgment errors known as biases. Biases are pervasive within organizational settings and can lead to disastrous decisions. This paper provides HR scholars and professionals with a balanced, nuanced, and integrative framework to better understand heuristics and biases and explore their organizational impact. To that end, a forward-looking and direction-setting research agenda is presented.

Details

Personnel Review, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0048-3486

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 April 1996

Richard G. Schroeder, Alan Reinstein and Bill N. Schwartz

Attempts to assess the impact of structured and unstructured audit approaches on the auditor’s professional judgement. The auditor’s use of judgement was measured by using the…

1633

Abstract

Attempts to assess the impact of structured and unstructured audit approaches on the auditor’s professional judgement. The auditor’s use of judgement was measured by using the anchoring and adjustment instrument developed by Biddle and Joyce and the representativeness and protectiveness instrument developed by Uecker and Kinney. To ascertain the effect of audit technology on probabilistic judgement in auditing, 78 employees of ten offices of national Certified Public Accountant (CPA) firms ‐ 40 from unstructured firms and 38 from structured ones ‐ were surveyed. Findings indicate that public accountants’ probabilistic judgements were influenced by their firms’ audit technology structure and that the imposition of structure caused auditors to rely more on provided cues than on the use of judgement. These results help support Mintzberg’s suggestion that CPA firms modify their audit approaches to fit specific situations. For example, they should use structured approaches for clients with continuing good earnings announcements and less‐structured approaches for poorly performing clients.

Details

Managerial Auditing Journal, vol. 11 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0268-6902

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 19 October 2021

Preeti Goyal, Poornima Gupta and Vanita Yadav

The purpose of this paper is to explore how heuristics are formed and whether herding and prospect theory act as antecedents to heuristics. The relationship is explored…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to explore how heuristics are formed and whether herding and prospect theory act as antecedents to heuristics. The relationship is explored specifically for millennials.

Design/methodology/approach

The proposed relationship is explored specifically for millennials. Herding and prospect theory are modelled as antecedents to heuristics. The study uses survey data from 923 millennials from India to test the model for two financial products: equity and mutual funds. Regression analysis is used to evaluate the model.

Findings

Findings support the role of herding and prospect theory as antecedents to heuristics of millennials although to varying degrees for equity and mutual fund investments. The impact of herding on heuristics is likely to be smaller for equity investments as compared to mutual fund investments.

Research limitations/implications

The findings provide insights into how heuristics are formed for millennials. The findings add to literature by beginning a new line of inquiry on how heuristics are formed. Since the model is tested on a single generation, future research can test the model on other generations. In addition, future research can also add more antecedents to our proposed model.

Practical implications

Findings from this study can provide financial planners and marketers with an understanding of how heuristics are formed for millennials. Financial planners can use these insights while providing financial advice to this generation and marketers can use them to create more relevant outreach.

Social implications

Financial investments are an important conduit for financial security. By understanding the cognitive processes that influence financial investment decision-making, it is possible for educators to create content appropriately and for financial planners to advise clients accordingly to enable optimal financial decisions that will be wealth-creating.

Originality/value

Existing literature primarily treats heuristics, herding and prospect theory as being independent of each other. The authors take a novel approach to model the antecedents to heuristics to be herding and prospect theory. The model is tested on millennials for two financial products: equity and mutual funds.

Details

Review of Behavioral Finance, vol. 15 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1940-5979

Keywords

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