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Article
Publication date: 6 December 2023

Z. Göknur Büyükkara, İsmail Cem Özgüler and Ali Hepsen

The purpose of this study is to explore the intricate relationship between oil prices, house prices in the UK and Norway, and the mediating role of gold and stock prices in both…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to explore the intricate relationship between oil prices, house prices in the UK and Norway, and the mediating role of gold and stock prices in both the short- and long-term, unraveling these complex linkages by employing an empirical approach.

Design/methodology/approach

This study benefits from a comprehensive set of econometric tools, including a multiequation vector autoregressive (VAR) system, Granger causality test, impulse response function, variance decomposition and a single-equation autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) system. This rigorous approach enables to identify both short- and long-run dynamics to unravel the intricate linkages between Brent oil prices, housing prices, gold prices and stock prices in the UK and Norway over the period from 2005:Q1 to 2022:Q2.

Findings

The findings indicate that rising oil prices negatively impact house prices, whereas the positive influence of stock market performance on housing is more pronounced. A two-way causal relationship exists between stock market indices and house prices, whereas a one-way causal relationship exists from crude oil prices to house prices in both countries. The VAR model reveals that past housing prices, stock market indices in each country and Brent oil prices are the primary determinants of current housing prices. The single-equation ARDL results for housing prices demonstrate the existence of a long-run cointegrating relationship between real estate and stock prices. The variance decomposition analysis indicates that oil prices have a more pronounced impact on housing prices compared with stock prices. The findings reveal that shocks in stock markets have a greater influence on housing market prices than those in oil or gold prices. Consequently, house prices exhibit a stronger reaction to general financial market indicators than to commodity prices.

Research limitations/implications

This study may have several limitations. First, the model does not include all relevant macroeconomic variables, such as interest rates, unemployment rates and gross domestic product growth. This omission may affect the accuracy of the model’s predictions and lead to inefficiencies in the real estate market. Second, this study does not consider alternative explanations for market inefficiencies, such as behavioral finance factors, information asymmetry or market microstructure effects. Third, the models have limitations in revealing how predictors react to positive and negative shocks. Therefore, the results of this study should be interpreted with caution.

Practical implications

These findings hold significant implications for formulating dynamic policies aimed at stabilizing the housing markets of these two oil-producing nations. The practical implications of this study extend to academics, investors and policymakers, particularly in light of the volatility characterizing both housing and commodity markets. The findings reveal that shocks in stock markets have a more profound impact on housing market prices compared with those in oil or gold prices. Consequently, house prices exhibit a stronger reaction to general financial market indicators than to commodity prices.

Social implications

These findings could also serve as valuable insights for future research endeavors aimed at constructing models that link real estate market dynamics to macroeconomic indicators.

Originality/value

Using a variety of econometric approaches, this paper presents an innovative empirical analysis of the intricate relationship between euro property prices, stock prices, gold prices and oil prices in the UK and Norway from 2005:Q1 to 2022:Q2. Expanding upon the existing literature on housing market price determinants, this study delves into the role of gold and oil prices, considering their impact on industrial production and overall economic growth. This paper provides valuable policy insights for effectively managing the impact of oil price shocks on the housing market.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 20 September 2023

Ali Raza, Laiba Asif, Turgut Türsoy, Mehdi Seraj and Gül Erkol Bayram

This study aims to determine how changes in macroeconomic indicators and the housing prices index (HPI) are related. These factors can cause short-term and long-term changes in…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to determine how changes in macroeconomic indicators and the housing prices index (HPI) are related. These factors can cause short-term and long-term changes in the housing market in Spain.

Design/methodology/approach

The study used cointegrating regression, fully modified ordinary least squares and dynamic ordinary least squares methodologies. The models are trained using quarterly time series data for these parameters from 2010 to 2022. A comprehensive examination is conducted to explore the relationship between macroeconomic issues and fluctuations in the HPI.

Findings

The results indicate statistically significant short-run effects (p < 0.05) of economic growth, inflation, Spanish stock indices, foreign trade and the interest rate on HPI. The inflation variables, Spain’s stock indices, interest rate and monetary rate, have statistically significant long-run effects (p < 0.05) on HPI. The exchange rate, unemployment and money supply have no substantial impact on HPI in Spain.

Originality/value

The study’s findings significantly contribute to increased information concerning the level of investing activity in the Spanish housing sector. After conducting an in-depth study of both the long-run and short-run connections with HPI, the study proved to be highly effective in formulating appropriate policies.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 19 June 2023

Shufeng Cong, Lee Chin and Abdul Rahim Abdul Samad

The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between tourism development and urban housing prices in Chinese cities. Specifically, the study aimed to explore…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between tourism development and urban housing prices in Chinese cities. Specifically, the study aimed to explore whether there is a relationship between the two variables in tourist and non-tourist cities and whether there is a non-linear relationship between them.

Design/methodology/approach

In this study, the entropy method was used to construct the China City Tourism Development Index, which provides a more comprehensive measure of the level of tourism development in different cities. In total, 45 major cities in China were studied using the panel data approach for the period of 2011 to 2019.

Findings

The empirical analysis conducted for this study found that tourism development affects urban house prices, and that there is an inverted U-shaped relationship. However, this varies across cities, with house prices in tourist cities tending to be more influenced by tourism development than non-tourist cities. Also, foreign direct investment, population size, fixed asset investment and disposable income per capita were found to have an impact on house prices in both tourism and non-tourism cities.

Originality/value

There are significant differences in tourism development and urban house prices in different cities in China. This study considers these differences when examining the impact of tourism on house prices in 45 major cities in China by dividing the sample cities into tourist and non-tourist cities.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

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