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The purpose of this paper is to introduce a new conceptual framework for smallholder value chains based on complex adaptive systems.

The authors review the application of the framework to three case studies and explore their implications. The authors reflect on the value of a framework based on complex adaptive systems compared to alternative frameworks.

The authors argue that the dynamics of smallholder value chains have received insufficient attention.

By focusing on these dynamics and on the capacity for adaptation among value chain actors the framework provides a new perspective on smallholder value chains.

Complex adaptive systems provide a useful framework for analyzing value chain dynamics.

Smallholder value chains are dynamic, changing over time in sudden, unpredictable ways as they adapt to shocks. Understanding these dynamics and adaptation is essential for these chains to remain competitive in turbulent markets. Many guides to value chain development, though they focus welcome attention on snapshots of current structure and performance, pay limited attention to the dynamic forces affecting these chains or to adaptation. The paper aims to discuss these issues.

This paper develops an expanded conceptual framework to understand value chain performance based on the theory of complex adaptive systems. The framework combines seven common properties of complex systems: time, uncertainty, sensitivity to initial conditions, endogenous shocks, sudden change, interacting agents and adaptation.

The authors outline how the framework can be used to ask new research questions and analyze case studies in order to improve our understanding of the development of smallholder value chains and their capacity for adaptation.

The framework highlights the need for greater attention to value chain dynamics.

The framework offers a new perspective on the dynamics of smallholder value chains.

The decision by the Government of Kenya in 2013 to increase tax revenue by imposing excise duty of 50 percent on sorghum beer resulted in economic losses for smallholders, the brewery, and the government itself because it effectively killed the value chain. In 2015, the government reversed the policy decision and reduced excise duty to 10 percent. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the impact of this policy decision on the value chain, adaptation by growers and the brewery, and the rationale for this policy change and its reversal.

The author analyzes this episode using a conceptual framework derived from complex adaptive systems, focusing on four properties of such systems: sudden, endogenous shocks, interacting agents, and adaptation.

The author shows how the nature of politics in Kenya exposed the value chain to endogenous shocks as the result of conflicts between interacting agents, where smallholder farmer organizations were important for successful adaptation. Conflicts between development and political objectives in neo-patrimonial states are sources of complexity and uncertainty in smallholder value chains.

Complex adaptive systems proved a useful framework to understand decision making by government and business actors in the value chain.

The paper applies a novel conceptual framework to the analysis of an important value chain in Kenya.

Between 2006 and 2011, Nicaragua shipped an average of US$9.4 million per year of smallholder-produced fresh taro (Colocasia esculenta) to the USA; however, by 2016, the US market for Nicaraguan taro had effectively collapsed. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the short-lived taro boom from the perspective of complex adaptive systems, showing how shocks, interactions between value chain actors, and lack of adaptive capacity among chain actors together contributed to the collapse of the chain.

Primary data were collected from businesses and smallholders in 2010 and 2016 to understand the actors involved, their business relations, and the benefits and setbacks they experienced along the way.

The results show the capacity of better-off smallholders to engage in a demanding market, but also the struggles faced by more vulnerable smallholders to build new production systems and respond to internal and external shocks. Local businesses were generally unprepared for the uncertainties inherent in fresh horticultural trade or for engagement with distant buyers.

Existing guides and tools for designing value chain interventions will benefit from greater attention to the circumstances of local actors and the challenges of building productive inter-business relations under higher levels of risk and uncertainty.

This case serves as a wake-up call for practitioners, donors, researchers, and the private sector on how to identify market opportunities and the design of more robust strategies to respond to them.

The aim of this paper is to consider the appropriate benchmark risk free rate sui for pricing of property investments in the UK and, in doing so, investigate the financial characteristics and performance of the UK gilt yields. European investors have been significant players in the UK commercial property market during the last decade and in order to be competitive in bidding situations with UK‐based investors, require to be aware of the pricing criteria adopted.

This paper analyses the stability, yield distribution and volatility of both conventional gilts and index‐linked gilts with different maturities over the period 1980‐2010. It considers the changing structure of the UK commercial property market and reports on a questionnaire survey of the UK property investment community, which focused on the rationale behind the selection of the appropriate risk free rate of return.

The analysis suggests that ten‐year index‐linked gilts have been the most stable, but that if conventional gilts are preferred, then five‐year nominal appear to be more stable than ten‐year nominal; ten‐year real yields are smoother and relatively less volatile. In the authors' survey of the UK property investment fund managers and their advisors, the majority, but by no means all of the respondents, used the ten‐year nominal gilt yield as their risk free rate of return. However, questions were raised as to whether it was appropriate to use spot or average gilt yields, particularly when rates in 2009/2010 had fallen to such low level.

The findings provide a better understanding of how the different maturities of gilts behave. Insight is given on the criteria adopted by investors when selecting the risk free rate.

Life is made up of debits and credits, as Kipling wrote, long accounts have to be paid — mistakes, misconduct, misdeeds, all the mischief and harm they cause, exact payment which has to be met by someone, not necessarily those that cause the trouble; all too often by innocent victims. The recent industrial strife, destruction and violence, despite the plausible excuses for it, will have disastrous results, a colossal debit in the nation's accounts; and the mass of the people, the vulnerable groups including several millions of elderly pensioners, the handicapped and sick, are under no illusions who will have to pay. The posturing defiance — “heads held high”, bands playing martial music — the complete lack of concern or regret for others will make no difference to the overtaking retribution.