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In this paper, the heterogeneity of the linkages among financial development, productivity and growth across income groups is emphasized.

An empirical analysis is conducted with an illustrative sample of 130 economies over the period 1991–2019 and classified into four subsamples: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), developing, least developed and net food importing developing countries. Forecast error variance decompositions and panel vector auto-regressive estimations are computed, with insightful findings.

Higher levels of output stimulate the economic development in the agricultural sector, mainly via the productivity channel and, in the most developed economies, also through access to credit. Differently, in developing and least developed economies, the role of access to credit is marginal. The findings have practical implications for stakeholders involved in the planning of long-run investments. In less developed economies, priorities should be given to investments in technology and innovation, whereas financial markets are more suited to boost the development of the agricultural sector of developed economies.

The authors conclude on the credit–output–productivity nexus and contribute to the literature in (at least) three ways. First, they assess how credit access, agricultural output and agricultural productivity are jointly determined. Second, they use a novel approach, which departs from most of the case studies based on single-country data. Third, they conclude on potential causality links to conclude on policy implications.

The research objective of this paper is to investigate the direct and indirect impacts of green finance on agricultural carbon total factor productivity (ACTFP) within the framework of the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality (dual carbon) goals, while also identifying the driving factors through an exponential decomposition of ACTFP, aiming to provide policy recommendations to enhance financial support for low-carbon agricultural development.

In this paper, the Global Malmquist Luenberger (GML) Index method was employed to analyze and decompose the ACTFP, while the direct and spillover effects of China’s green finance pilot policy (GFPP) on ACTFP were assessed using the difference-in-differences (DID) method and the spatial differences-in-differences (SDID) method, respectively.

After the implementation of the GFPP, the ACTFP in the pilot area has experienced significant improvement, with the enhancement of technical efficiency serving as the main driving force. In addition, the GFPP exhibits a positive low-carbon spatial spillover effect, indicating it benefits ACTFP in both the pilot and adjacent areas.

Within the framework of the dual carbon goals, the paper highlights agriculture as a significant carbon emitter. ACTFP is assessed by considering the agricultural carbon emission factor as the sole non-desired output, and the impact of the GFPP on ACTFP is investigated through the DID method, thereby providing substantial validation of the hypotheses inferred from the mathematical model. Subsequently, the spillover effects of GFPP on ACTFP are analyzed in conjunction with the spatial econometric model.

This study empirically examines the impact of climate change and agricultural research and development (R&D) as well as their interaction on agricultural productivity in 12 selected Asian and Pacific countries over the period of 1990–2018.

Various estimation methods for panel data, including Fixed Effects (FE), the Feasible Generalized Least Squares (FGLS) and two-step System Generalized Method of Moments (SGMM) were used.

Results show that both proxies of climate change – temperature and precipitation – have negative impacts on agricultural productivity. Notably, agricultural R&D investments not only increase agricultural productivity but also mitigate the detrimental impact of climate change proxied by temperature on agricultural productivity. Interestingly, climate change proxied by precipitation initially reduces agricultural productivity until a threshold of agricultural R&D beyond which precipitation increases agricultural productivity.

The findings imply useful policies to boost agricultural productivity by using R&D in the context of rising climate change in the vulnerable continent.

This study contributes to the literature in two ways. First, this study examines how climate change affects agricultural productivity in Asian and Pacific countries – those are most vulnerable to climate change. Second, this study assesses the role of R&D in improving agricultural productivity as well as its moderating effect in reducing the harmful impact of climate change on agricultural productivity.

Natural disasters profoundly influence agricultural trade sustainability. This study investigates the effects of natural disasters on agricultural production imports in China within 2002 and 2018. This exploration estimates the mediating role of transportation infrastructure and agriculture value-added and the moderating role of government effectiveness and diplomatic relations.

This investigation uses Probit, Logit, Cloglog and Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) models.

The results confirm the mediating role of transportation infrastructure and agriculture value-added and the moderating role of government effectiveness and diplomatic relations in China. According to the findings, natural disasters in trading partners heighten the risk to the agricultural imports. This risk raises, if disasters damage overall agricultural yield or transportation infrastructure. Moreover, governments’ effective response or diplomatic ties with China mitigate the risk. Finally, the effect of disasters varies by the developmental status of the country involved, with events in developed nations posing a greater risk to China’s imports than those in developing nations.

China should devise an early warning system to protect its agricultural imports by using advanced technologies such as data analytics, remote sensing and artificial intelligence. In addition, it can leverage this system by improving its collaboration with trading partners, involvement in international forums and agreement for mutual support in crisis.

The damping accumulated discrete MGM(1, m) power model is proposed for the problem of forecasting the share of agricultural output value and the share of employment in China.

In this study, the damping accumulated discrete MGM(1, m) power model was developed based on the idea of discrete modelling by introducing a damping accumulated generating operator and power index. The new model can better identify the non-linear characteristics existing between different factors in the multivariate system and can accurately describe and forecast the trend of changes between data series and each of them.

The validity and rationality of the new model are verified through numerical experiment. It is forecasted that in 2023, the share of agricultural output value in China will be 7.14% and the share of agricultural employment will be 21.98%, with an overall decreasing trend.

The simultaneous decline in the share of agricultural output value and the share of employment is a common feature of countries that have achieved agricultural modernisation. Accurate forecasts of the share of agricultural output value and the share of employment can provide an important scientific basis for formulating appropriate agricultural development targets and policies in China.

The new model proposed in this study fully considers the importance of new information and has higher stability. The differential evolutionary algorithm was used to optimise the model parameters.

This study aims to examine the effects of climate change and agricultural technologies on crop production in Vietnam for the period 1990–2018.

Several econometric techniques – such as the augmented Dickey–Fuller, Phillips–Perron, the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test, variance decomposition method (VDM) and impulse response function (IRF) are used for the empirical analysis.

The results of the ARDL bounds test confirm the significant dynamic relationship among the variables under consideration, with a significance level of 1%. The primary findings indicate that the average annual temperature exerts a negative influence on crop yield, both in the short term and in the long term. The utilization of fertilizer has been found to augment crop productivity, whereas the application of pesticides has demonstrated the potential to raise crop production in the short term. Moreover, both the expansion of cultivated land and the utilization of energy resources have played significant roles in enhancing agricultural output across both in the short term and in the long term. Furthermore, the robustness outcomes also validate the statistical importance of the factors examined in the context of Vietnam.

This study provides persuasive evidence for policymakers to emphasize advancements in intensive agriculture as a means to mitigate the impacts of climate change. In the research, the authors use average annual temperature as a surrogate measure for climate change, while using fertilizer and pesticide usage as surrogate indicators for agricultural technologies. Future research can concentrate on the impact of ICT, climate change (specifically pertaining to maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation), and agricultural technological improvements that have an impact on cereal production.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first to examine how climate change and technology effect crop output in Vietnam from 1990 to 2018. Various econometrics tools, such as ARDL modeling, VDM and IRF, are used for estimation.

Agriculture is the backbone of a country, contributing more than half of the sector of economy throughout the world. The need for precision agriculture is essential in evaluating the conditions of the crops with the aim of determining the proper selection of pesticides. The conventional method of pest detection fails to be stable and provides limited accuracy in the prediction. This paper aims to propose an automatic pest detection module for the accurate detection of pests using the hybrid optimization controlled deep learning model.

The paper proposes an advanced pest detection strategy based on deep learning strategy through wireless sensor network (WSN) in the agricultural fields. Initially, the WSN consisting of number of nodes and a sink are clustered as number of clusters. Each cluster comprises a cluster head (CH) and a number of nodes, where the CH involves in the transfer of data to the sink node of the WSN and the CH is selected using the fractional ant bee colony optimization (FABC) algorithm. The routing process is executed using the protruder optimization algorithm that helps in the transfer of image data to the sink node through the optimal CH. The sink node acts as the data aggregator and the collection of image data thus obtained acts as the input database to be processed to find the type of pest in the agricultural field. The image data is pre-processed to remove the artifacts present in the image and the pre-processed image is then subjected to feature extraction process, through which the significant local directional pattern, local binary pattern, local optimal-oriented pattern (LOOP) and local ternary pattern (LTP) features are extracted. The extracted features are then fed to the deep-convolutional neural network (CNN) in such a way to detect the type of pests in the agricultural field. The weights of the deep-CNN are tuned optimally using the proposed MFGHO optimization algorithm that is developed with the combined characteristics of navigating search agents and the swarming search agents.

The analysis using insect identification from habitus image Database based on the performance metrics, such as accuracy, specificity and sensitivity, reveals the effectiveness of the proposed MFGHO-based deep-CNN in detecting the pests in crops. The analysis proves that the proposed classifier using the FABC+protruder optimization-based data aggregation strategy obtains an accuracy of 94.3482%, sensitivity of 93.3247% and the specificity of 94.5263%, which is high as compared to the existing methods.

The proposed MFGHO optimization-based deep-CNN is used for the detection of pest in the crop fields to ensure the better selection of proper cost-effective pesticides for the crop fields in such a way to increase the production. The proposed MFGHO algorithm is developed with the integrated characteristic features of navigating search agents and the swarming search agents in such a way to facilitate the optimal tuning of the hyperparameters in the deep-CNN classifier for the detection of pests in the crop fields.

Financial inclusion and digital finance go side by side and help enhance agricultural activities; however, the magnitude of digital financial services varies across countries. In line with this argument, this study aims to examine whether financial inclusion enhances agricultural participation and decompose the significance of the difference in determinants of agricultural participation between financially included – not financially included households and digital finance – no digital finance households.

This study uses Pakistan’s household integrated economic survey 2018/19 to test hypotheses. The logit model is used to examine the effect of financial inclusion on agriculture participation. Moreover, this study employs a nonlinear Fairlie Oaxaca Blinder technique to investigate the difference in determinants of agricultural participation.

This study reports that financial inclusion positively influences agricultural participation, meaning households may have access to financial services and participate in agricultural activities. The results suggest that the likelihood of participating in agriculture in households with mobiles and smartphones is higher. Moreover, household size, income, age, gender, education, urban, remittances from abroad, fertilizer, pesticides, wheat, cotton, sugarcane, fruits and vegetables are the significant determinants of agricultural participation. To distinguish the financially included – not financially included households’ gap, this study employs a nonlinear Fairlie Oaxaca Blinder decomposition and finds that differences in fertilizer explain the substantial gap in agricultural participation. Likewise, this study tests the digital finance – no digital finance gap and finds that the difference in fertilizer is a significant contributor, describing a considerable gap in agricultural participation.

Empirically identified that various factors cause agricultural participation including financial inclusion and digital finance. Regarding the research limitation, this study only considers a developing country to analyze the findings. However, for future research, scholars may consider some other countries to compare the results and identify their differences.

The accessibility of fertilizer can reduce the agricultural participation gap. However, increased income level, education and cotton and sugar production can also overcome the differences in agriculture participation between digital finance and no digital finance households.

This is the first study to decompose the difference in determinants of agricultural participation between financially and not financially included households.

The credit of agricultural product quality and safety reflects the ability of the main actors involved in the supply chain to provide reliable agricultural products to consumers. To fundamentally solve the problem of agricultural product quality and safety, it is worth studying how to make the credit awareness and integrity self-discipline of the supply chain agriculture-related subjects strengthened and the role and value of credit supervision given full play. Starting from the application of blockchain in the agricultural product supply chain, this paper aims to investigate the main factors affecting the credit regulation of agricultural product quality.

Using the DEMATEL-ISM (decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory–interpretative structural modeling) method, we analyze the credit influencing factors of agricultural quality and safety empowered by blockchain technology, find the causal relationship between the crucial influencing factors and deeply explore the hierarchical transmission relationship between the influencing factors. Then, the path analysis in structural equation modeling is utilized to verify and measure the significance and effect value of the transmission relationship among the crucial influencing factors of credit regulation.

The results show that the quality and safety credit regulation of agricultural products is influenced by a combination of direct and deep influencing factors. Long-term stable cooperative relationship, Quality and safety credit evaluation, Supply chain risk control ability, Quality and safety testing, Constraints of the smart contract are the main influence path of blockchain embedded in agricultural product supply chain quality and safety credit supervision.

Credit supervision is an important means to improve the ability and level of social governance and standardize the market order. From the perspective of blockchain embedded in the agricultural supply chain, the regulatory body is transformed from the product body to the supply chain body. Take the credit supervision of supply chain subjects as the basis of agricultural product quality supervision. With the help of blockchain technology to improve the effectiveness of agricultural product quality and safety credit supervision, credit supervision is used to constrain and incentivize the behavior of agricultural subjects.

This study explores the integration of smallholder farmers into the export market in Vietnam, an emerging economy. By introducing a prospective framework, we seek to provide insight into factors that influence this integration process.

This study examines the expected growth and entry of Vietnamese smallholder farmers into high-value export markets. We collected information from 200 independent farmers as well as from five local extension workers, who provided information on 50 farmers.

The study reveals that the adoption of new business models is more influential than the variables traditionally included in models of export-market integration in predicting expected growth and entry into high-value export markets. In addition, the results highlight divergent views between farmers and extension workers regarding the role of collectors, with farmers perceiving collectors as potential partners, while extension workers see them as impediments to growth.

The prospective model presented in this study highlights the importance of policy interventions aimed at promoting new business models and addressing infrastructure and capital constraints for the sustainable transformation of agricultural sectors in emerging markets.

This is one of the first articles to apply a prospective approach to export-market integration and demonstrate its efficacy through an empirical study. The suggested prospective approach could facilitate the design of policies aimed at export-market integration within the context of dynamic, emerging markets.