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This study aims to uncover the main predictors of financial distress in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries using a wide range of global factors and asset classes.

This study uses novel approaches that take into account extreme events as well as the nonlinear behavior of time series over various time intervals (i.e. short, medium and long term) and during boom and bust episodes. This study primarily uses the conditional value at risk (CoVaR), the quantile multivariate causality test and the partial wavelet coherence method. The data collection period ranges from March 2014 to September 2022.

US T-bills and gold are the primary factors that can increase financial stability in the GCC region, according to VaRs and CoVaRs. More proof of the predictive value of the oil, gold and wheat markets, as well as geopolitical tensions, uncertainty over US policy and volatility in the oil and US equities markets, is provided by the multivariate causality test. When low extreme quantiles or cross extreme quantiles are taken into account, these results are substantial and sturdy. Lastly, after adjusting for the effect of crude oil prices, this study’s wavelet coherence results indicate diminished long-run connections between the GCC stock market and the chosen global determinants.

Despite the implications of the author’s research for decision makers, there are some limitations mainly related to the selection of Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) GCC ex-Saudi Arabia. Considering the economic importance of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) in the region, the author believes that it would be better to include this country in the data to obtain more robust results. In addition, there is evidence in the literature of the existence of heterogeneous responses to global shocks; some markets are more vulnerable than others. This is another limitation of this study, as this study considers the GCC as a bloc rather than each country individually. These limitations could open up further research opportunities.

These findings are important for investors seeking to manage their portfolios under extreme market conditions. They are also important for government policies aimed at mitigating the impact of external shocks.

This study is motivated in part by the fact that the unfolding 2022 bear market, which has reached the −25% drawdown, has not been preceded by the inverted 10Y-3 m spread or an inverted near-term forward spread.

The authors develop a three-factor probit model to predict/explain the deep stock market drawdowns, which the authors define as the drawdowns in excess of 20%.

The study results show that (1) the rising credit risk predicts a deep drawdown about a year in advance and (2) the monetary policy easing precedes an imminent drawdown below the 20% threshold.

This study three-factor probit model shows adaptability beyond the typical recessionary bear market and predicts/explains the liquidity-based selloffs, like the 2022 and possibly the 1987 deep drawdowns.

Upon completion, successful students will be able to examine the importance of digitalisation as a competitive tool in business management; use a suitable theory to justify the need for an organisation to engage in e-commerce; develop suitable strategies/solutions to challenges faced by a business organisation in the world of digitalisation of business; explain the way data analytics and digitalisation can affect business strategies and marketing functions; and identify and explain various considerations in the internationalisation of business.

MR.D.I.Y. “The Malaysian Sweetheart” is a case about a home improvement company that has transformed itself from a regular hardware shop into a favourite home improvement retailer in Malaysia. The case looked at the influence of e-commerce and digital transformation marks a rethinking of how an organisation uses technology, people and processes in pursuit of new business models and new revenue streams, driven by changes in customer expectations around products and services. Such transformation has indeed created opportunities and challenges for business organisation throughout the globe in their pursuit of staying competitive for MR.D.I.Y. even though they are considered the largest home improvement retailer in Malaysia. The case also introduces the students to the Uses and Gratification Theory that underpins the e-commerce business model. The management of the company is concerned about its future given the rising competition and gloomy economic conditions.

The target group for this case is undergraduate students. Specifically, it is suitable for those in the field of Entrepreneurship taking e-commerce/small business management/entrepreneurship courses. The main purpose of this case study is to assist students in critically examining how a small business evolved from a tiny neighbourhood shop to become a household name at the national level and eventually emerged as the largest home improvement company locally and abroad. Specifically, the case can be applied to topics like Retailing in Electronic Commerce, Innovative EC Systems, Social Commerce and Launching an Online Business, which all are related to the courses on E-Commerce, and this case is also suitable to any other contemporary business management module. Additionally, educators can use this teaching case as a tool in an executive programme for senior, middle and lower managers to shape their thoughts and attitudes toward managing a contemporary retailing business. With this case, it is hoped that students would be able to understand and decide wisely if they encounter similar circumstances in the future.

Teaching notes are available for educators only.

CSS 3: Entrepreneurship.

The purpose of the research is to analyze the impact of world uncertainty and pandemic uncertainty on Islamic financial markets. For representing Islamic financial markets four different Islamic indices (DJ Islamic index, DJ Islamic Asia–Pacific index, DJ Islamic-Europe index and DJ Islamic-US) are taken.

The study employs quantile-on-quantile regression approach to see the overall dependence structure of variables based on quarterly data ranging from 1996Q1 to 2020Q4. This technique considers how quantiles of world uncertainty and pandemic uncertainty asymmetrically affect the quantiles of Islamic stocks by giving an appropriate framework to apprehend the overall dependence structure.

The findings of the study confirm a strong negative impact of world uncertainty and world pandemic uncertainty on regional Islamic stock indices but the strength of the relationship varies according to economic conditions and across the regions. However, the world pandemic effect remains the same and does not change. Conversely, pandemic uncertainty has a larger effect on Islamic indices as compared to world uncertainty.

Our findings have significant implications for investors and policymakers to take proper steps before any uncertainty arise. A coalition of the central bank, government officials and investment bank regulators would be needed to tackle this challenge of uncertainty.

To the best of the authors' knowledge, none of the current works has considered the asymmetric impact of world and pandemic uncertainties on Islamic stock markets at both the bottom and upper quantiles of the distribution of data.

This paper aims to provide new perspectives on the integration of East Asian stock markets and the dynamic volatility transmission to the Bitcoin market utilising daily data from 2014 to 2020.

The authors undertake comprehensive analyses of the dependency dynamics, systemic risk and volatility spillover between major East Asian stock and Bitcoin markets. The authors employ a vine-copula-CoVaR framework and a VAR-BEKK-GARCH method with a Wald test.

(a) With exception of KS11 and N225; HSI and SSE; HSI and KS11, which have moderate dependence, dependencies among other markets are low. In terms of tail risk, the upper tail risk is more significant in capturing strong common variation. (b) Two-way and asymmetric risk spillover effects exist in all markets. The Hong Kong and Japanese stock markets have significant risk spillovers to other markets, and quite notably, the Chinese stock market is the largest recipient of systemic risk. However, the authors observe a more significant risk spillover from the Chinese stock market to the Bitcoin market. (c) The VAR-BEKK-GARCH results confirm that the Korean market is a significant emitter of volatility spillovers. The Bitcoin market does provide diversification benefits. Interestingly, the Chinese stock market has an intriguing relationship with Bitcoin. (d) An increase in spillovers in East Asia boosts spillovers to Bitcoin, but there is no intuitive effect of Bitcoin spillovers on East Asian spillovers.

For the first time, the authors examine the dynamic linkage between Bitcoin and the major East Asian stock markets.

The study measures the total systemic risks and connectedness across commodities, stocks, exchange rates and bond markets in Africa during the Covid-19 pandemic.

The study uses the Diebold-Yilmaz spillover and connectedness measures in a generalized VAR framework. The author calculates the net transmitters or receivers of shocks between two assets and visualizes their strength using a network analysis tool.

The study found low systemic risks across all assets and countries. However, we found higher systemic risks in the forex market than in the stock and bond markets, and in South Africa than in other countries. The dynamic analysis found time-varying connectedness return shocks, which increased during the peak periods of the first and second waves of the pandemic. We found both gold and oil as net receivers of shocks. Overall, over half of all assets were net receivers, and others were net transmitters of return shocks. The network connectedness plot shows high net pairwise connectedness from Morocco to South Africa stock market.

The study has implications for policymakers to develop the capacities of local investors and markets to limit portfolio outflows during a crisis.

Previous studies have analyzed spillovers across asset classes in a single country or a single asset across countries. This paper contributes to the literature on network connectedness across assets and countries.

This paper aims to provide a living tribute to the leading autoethnographer, Alec Grant.

Alec provided Jerome with a list of names of people he might approach to write a tribute on his behalf.

The accounts describe the influence that Alec has had both as an educator and as a trusted colleague for the people approached.

While this is a living tribute, it is about one man and could, therefore, be described as a case study. Some people wonder what can be learned from a single case study. Read on and find out.

Alec has carved out a path for himself. In many senses, he chose “The Road Less Travelled”. He has never shied away from challenging “The System” and defending the rights of the marginalized and socially excluded. It is not a road for the faint-hearted.

For systems to change, radical thinkers need to show the way. “Change keeps us safe” (Stuart Bell).

Alec was a well-known and highly respected cognitive behavioural academic practitioner and the author of key textbooks in the field. He then decided to reinvent himself as an autoethnographer. This has brought him into contact with a much more diverse group of people. It has also brought him home to himself.

The study aims to estimate the short- and long-run effects of monetary policy on residential property prices in South Africa. Over the past decades, there has been a monetary policy shift, from targeting money supply and exchange rate to inflation. The shifts have affected residential property market dynamics.

The Johansen cointegration approach was used to estimate the effects of changes in monetary policy proxies on residential property prices using quarterly data from 1980 to 2022.

Mortgage finance and economic growth have a significant positive long-run effect on residential property prices. The consumer price index, the inflation targeting framework, interest rates and exchange rates have a significant negative long-run effect on residential property prices. The Granger causality test has depicted that exchange rate significantly influences residential property prices in the short run, and interest rates, inflation targeting framework, gross domestic product, money supply consumer price index and exchange rate can quickly return to equilibrium when they are in disequilibrium.

There are limited arguments whether the inflation targeting monetary policy framework in South Africa has prevented residential property market boom and bust scenarios. The study has found that the implementation of inflation targeting framework has successfully reduced booms in residential property prices in South Africa.

The surging cost of living and shortage of affordable and sustainable homes fuel the global housing crisis. Earthship buildings are marketed as the epitome of affordable and sustainable alternative housing. This paper aimed to elicit the perception of Earthship buildings among youngsters in the United Kingdom using immersive virtual reality technology. Additionally, the impact of virtual reality on perception compared with two-dimensional drawings was investigated in the study.

A three-phase, experiment-based survey was adopted: Phase 1: literature review, Earthship house model conception and the virtual environment creation; Phase 2: two-dimensional drawing-based pre-visualisation survey; Phase 3: virtual reality–based post-visualisation survey.

The findings indicated that youngsters had a remarkable, positive change in attitude towards the uptake of the Earthship houses after virtual reality visualisation. In contrast, sustainability experts shared more concerns regarding the concept's viability in the United Kingdom, even after the virtual reality visualisation. However, both youngsters and experts agreed with the pre-eminence of virtual reality over two-dimensional drawings.

The lack of awareness about Earthship buildings for posterity was noted in previous studies, which could be attributed to there being very few Earthship buildings in the United Kingdom. The importance of this awareness among youngsters cannot be over-emphasised since youngsters are affected most by the shortage of affordable and sustainable homes. This gap was addressed by enlightening the youth about Earthship houses and imparting awareness through near-real-life virtual reality visualisation.