Search results

1 – 4 of 4
To view the access options for this content please click here
Article
Publication date: 9 September 2020

Crystal Drakes, Adrian Cashman, Eric Kemp-Benedict and Timothy Laing

The use of socio-economic scenarios in small island developing states (SIDS) when assessing, and planning for, the impacts of global changes on national socioeconomic and…

Abstract

Purpose

The use of socio-economic scenarios in small island developing states (SIDS) when assessing, and planning for, the impacts of global changes on national socioeconomic and environmental systems is still in its infancy. The research conducts a cross-scale foresight scenario exercise to produce regional scenarios and national storylines for Caribbean islands that are of “partial” consistency to the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and shows how future socioeconomic and climatic changes can be applied to inform natural resource management decisions.

Design/methodology/approach

To develop the scenarios, the study uses a three-staged linking process using mixed methods to “triangulate” each technique to compensate for weaknesses of one method by introducing a complementary method at each stage. A participatory-expert stepwise approach with feedback loops is used and complemented with a climate sensitive tourism water demand model.

Findings

Four regional exploratory socio-economic scenarios were constructed that are partially consistent with global scenarios. In addition, national storylines for four island states were developed based on the regional scenarios. Using RCP 4.5 hotel water demand in Barbados is estimated under three of the regional scenarios based on compatibility. The results indicate there is a 17% difference between the highest and lowest estimated water demand, indicating the effect of varying socio-economic conditions on water demand.

Originality/value

The paper contributes to the literature by presenting regional socio-economic scenarios, specifically for SIDS, that are partially consistent with both global climatic RCPs and SSPs using a cross-scale approach. The scenarios are then used to demonstrate how future socio-economic pathways impact on freshwater demand.

To view the access options for this content please click here
Article
Publication date: 24 August 2012

Adrian Cashman, Janice Cumberbatch and Winston Moore

Since the decline of export agriculture and the loss of trade preferences, most Caribbean countries have shifted their economies towards the provision of tourism services…

Abstract

Purpose

Since the decline of export agriculture and the loss of trade preferences, most Caribbean countries have shifted their economies towards the provision of tourism services. Barbados, for example, receives more than two‐thirds of its foreign exchange earnings from tourism. The sustainability of tourism in the Caribbean can potentially be affected by climate change. This paper aims to address this issue.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper provides an assessment of the likely effects of climate change in the small state of Barbados and suggests some recommended adaptations. Climate change is expected to impact on temperature, rainfall and severe weather, sea levels and sea surface temperatures, biodiversity loss, and lead to erosion and seasonal shifts on the island.

Findings

The paper finds that, in relation to tourism demand, as travellers from source markets become more conscious of their carbon footprint and the implementation of green taxes, there might be some alteration in demand for long‐haul destinations such as Barbados. On the supply‐side, increased operating costs, due to higher insurance premiums (particularly for beachfront properties) and greater cooling costs, to name a few could all impact on the profitability of hotels in the island. As climate change impacts on the water table, there is also likely to be some competition for water resources for residential and tourism purposes.

Originality/value

The paper supplies useful information on sustainability of tourism in the Caribbean and the effects of climate change.

Details

Tourism Review, vol. 67 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1660-5373

Keywords

To view the access options for this content please click here
Article
Publication date: 30 May 2008

Adrian Cashman and Richard Ashley

The water sector is set to continue to face severe challenges in meeting the financial requirements for maintaining, extending and upgrading new and ageing water systems

Abstract

Purpose

The water sector is set to continue to face severe challenges in meeting the financial requirements for maintaining, extending and upgrading new and ageing water systems in the face of growing water scarcity, stricter regulatory requirements and competition for capital. The gap between the required financing and the projected financing is said to be growing but there are no good estimates available. The purpose of this paper is to present a recent analysis of the investment requirements of the water sector in OECD countries, Brazil, Russia, India and China up to 2030, taking into account the likely impact of socio‐economic trends, internal politics, environmental challenges and technological change.

Design/methodology/approach

In order to estimate the required financing, present expenditures as a percentage of GDP were analysed. Estimates of projected annual GDP growth coupled with an evaluation of the impact of country specific socio‐economic, political, environmental and technological trends were used to derive projections for future investment needs.

Findings

The estimated level of infrastructure investment requirements to 2030 as determined by this study is considerably higher than had been expected and higher than for the energy, telecommunications and transport infrastructure sectors.

Practical implications

The findings have enormous implications in terms of the ability of service providers for their business models and in raising the necessary finances.

Originality/value

This is one of a very few studies to report on the potential scale of the overall future investment requirements of the water sector that has been undertaken. Previous works have focused mainly on sub‐sectoral goals such as meeting the Millennium Development Goals and so have under‐reported the scale of the financing problem.

Details

Foresight, vol. 10 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

To view the access options for this content please click here
Article
Publication date: 15 October 2008

Muayyad Jabri, Allyson D. Adrian and David Boje

The purpose is to inspire a more Bakhtinian perspective of conversations in change communication. Inspiration is drawn from Bakhtin and argue that change management has…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose is to inspire a more Bakhtinian perspective of conversations in change communication. Inspiration is drawn from Bakhtin and argue that change management has, for too long, focused on monologic implementation of predetermined change, i.e. how to develop the “best plot”. Change agents need to consider their anthropology are argued and ask themselves whether the people in their organizations are the objects of communication or subjects in communication. Furthermore, the argument about one's anthropology and one's espoused communication theory are intrinsically intertwined: how one communicates depends entirely on whether one views people as participating subjects in the process or as objects of the process.

Design/methodology/approach

Consensus‐as‐monologue and consensus‐as‐dialogue are distinguished. Under the former, the notion of a single speaker is emphasized (expectations of response are low). But under the latter, consensus becomes saturated with the self as the other (polemic, but born between people).

Findings

Change agents need to consider their anthropology are argued and ask themselves whether the people in their organizations are the objects of communication or subjects in communication.

Originality/value

Seeing conversation among people as a never‐ending process. A different perspective on participation – a perspective whereby one person's message joins with that of another and one person's meaning joins with that of another is offered.

Details

Journal of Organizational Change Management, vol. 21 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0953-4814

Keywords

1 – 4 of 4