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This study was conducted to forecast the monthly number of tuna landings between 2023 and 2030 and determine whether the estimated number meets the government’s target.

The ARIMA and seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA) models were employed for time series forecasting of tuna landings from the Malaysian Department of Fisheries. The best ARIMA (p, d, q) and SARIMA(p, d, q) (P, D, Q)¹² model for forecasting were determined based on model identification, estimation and diagnostics.

SARIMA(1, 0, 1) (1, 1, 0)¹² was found to be the best model for forecasting tuna landings in Malaysia. The result showed that the fluctuation of monthly tuna landings between 2023 and 2030, however, did not achieve the target.

This study provides preliminary ideas and insight into whether the government’s target for fish landing stocks can be met. Impactful results may guide the government in the future as it plans to improve the insufficient supply of tuna.

The outcome of this study could raise awareness among the government and industry about how to improve efficient strategies. It is to ensure the future tuna landing meets the targets, including increasing private investment, improving human capital in catch and processing, and strengthening the system and technology development in the tuna industry.

This paper is important to predict the trend of monthly tuna landing stock in the next eight years, from 2023 to 2030, and whether it can achieve the government’s target of 150,000 metric tonnes.

This paper was set to develop a model for forecasting maize production in Tanzania using the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) approach. The aim is to forecast future production of maize for the next 10 years to help identify the population at risk of food insecurity and quantify the anticipated maize shortage.

Annual historical data on maize production (hg/ha) from 1961 to 2021 obtained from the FAOSTAT database were used. The ARIMA method is a robust framework for forecasting time-series data with non-seasonal components. The model was selected based on the Akaike Information Criteria corrected (AICc) minimum values and maximum log-likelihood. Model adequacy was checked using plots of residuals and the Ljung-Box test.

The results suggest that ARIMA (1,1,1) is the most suitable model to forecast maize production in Tanzania. The selected model proved efficient in forecasting maize production in the coming years and is recommended for application.

The study used partially processed secondary data to fit for Time series analysis using ARIMA (1,1,1) and hence reliable and conclusive results.

Indian railways (IR) is one of the largest railway networks in the world. As a part of its strategic development initiative, demand forecasting can be one of the indispensable activities, as it may provide basic inputs for planning and control of various activities such as coach production, planning new trains, coach augmentation and quota redistribution. The purpose of this study is to suggest an approach to demand forecasting for IR management.

A case study is carried out, wherein several models i.e. automated autoregressive integrated moving average (auto-ARIMA), trigonometric regressors (TBATS), Holt–Winters additive model, Holt–Winters multiplicative model, simple exponential smoothing and simple moving average methods have been tested. As per requirements of IR management, the adopted research methodology is predominantly discursive, and the passenger reservation patterns over a five-year period covering a most representative train service for the past five years have been employed. The relative error matrix and the Akaike information criterion have been used to compare the performance of various models. The Diebold–Mariano test was conducted to examine the accuracy of models.

The coach production strategy has been proposed on the most suitable auto-ARIMA model. Around 6,000 railway coaches per year have been produced in the past 3 years by IR. As per the coach production plan for the year 2023–2024, a tentative 6551 coaches of various types have been planned for production. The insights gained from this paper may facilitate need-based coach manufacturing and optimum utilization of the inventory.

This study contributes to the literature on rail ticket demand forecasting and adds value to the process of rolling stock management. The proposed model can be a comprehensive decision-making tool to plan for new train services and assess the rolling stock production requirement on any railway system. The analysis may help in making demand predictions for the busy season, and the management can make important decisions about the pricing of services.

The purpose of this study is to analyze the fluctuations in gold prices within the Saudi Arabian market and to develop a reliable forecasting model to aid market participants and policymakers in making informed decisions.

In this study, we employ a rigorous time series analysis methodology, including the ARIMA (Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average) model, to analyze historical gold price data in the Saudi Arabian market. The approach involves identifying optimal model parameters and assessing forecast accuracy to provide actionable insights for market participants.

The study showcases that the autoregressive properties of past gold prices play a pivotal role in capturing the inherent serial correlation within the market, enabling the ARIMA model to effectively forecast future gold price movements with accuracy.

Our study primarily focuses on quantitative analysis, whereas few qualitative parameters are not included. Future studies may benefit from incorporating qualitative factors and expert opinions to enhance the robustness of gold price predictions and capture the full spectrum of market dynamics.

Participants and policymakers may find this study helpful in navigating the complicated Saudi Arabian gold market. By understanding financial stability and investment decisions more thoroughly, individuals and institutions may be able to manage their portfolios more effectively.

By combining historical insights with advanced ARIMA modeling techniques, this research provides valuable insight into gold price dynamics in the Saudi Arabian market.

The pandemic had a huge negative impact globally on small and micro firms, particularly on cultural enterprises, making it imperative for them to create strategic solutions for sustainable business models and customer relationships. This chapter studies the digital interventions employed by the micro cultural enterprises in the Japanese Onsens (Hot baths) sector during the pandemic period in Japan. Using the theoretical lenses of service dominant logic and value creation, the study extracts four prominent value creation processes from the analysis of the employed secondary data. The study underlines the importance of collaboration between a firm's internal and external resources, their creative use of operant resources, and a robust customer orientation leading to creative digitalization. The results of the study show how cultural enterprises can rethink customer service in the cultural and creative sector. It also draws attention to the need for more robust policies and support systems that can encourage global cultural enterprises to develop sustainable business models.

The housing market in Kenya continues to experience an excessive imbalance between supply and demand. This imbalance renders the housing market volatile, and stakeholders lose repeatedly. The purpose of the study was to forecast housing prices (HPs) in Kenya using simple and complex regression models to assess the best model for projecting the HPs in Kenya.

The study used time series data from 1975 to 2020 of the selected macroeconomic factors sourced from Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, Central Bank of Kenya and Hass Consult Limited. Linear regression, multiple regression, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models regression techniques were used to model HPs.

The study concludes that the performance of the housing market is very sensitive to changes in the economic indicators, and therefore, the key players in the housing market should consider the performance of the economy during the project feasibility studies and appraisals. From the results, it can be deduced that complex models outperform simple models in forecasting HPs in Kenya. The vector autoregressive (VAR) model performs the best in forecasting HPs considering its lowest root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and bias proportion coefficient. ARIMA models perform dismally in forecasting HPs, and therefore, we conclude that HP is not a self-projecting variable.

A model for projecting HPs could be a game changer if applied during the project appraisal stage by the developers and project managers. The study thoroughly compared the various regression models to ascertain the best model for forecasting the prices and revealed that complex models perform better than simple models in forecasting HPs. The study recommends a VAR model in forecasting HPs considering its lowest RMSE, MAE, MAPE and bias proportion coefficient compared to other models. The model, if used in collaboration with the already existing hedonic models, will ensure that the investments in the housing markets are well-informed, and hence, a reduction in economic losses arising from poor market forecasting techniques. However, these study findings are only applicable to the commercial housing market i.e. houses for sale and rent.

While more research has been done on HP projections, this study was based on a comparison of simple and complex regression models of projecting HPs. A total of five models were compared in the study: the simple regression model, multiple regression model, ARIMA model, ARDL model and VAR model. The findings reveal that complex models outperform simple models in projecting HPs. Nonetheless, the study also used nine macroeconomic indicators in the model-building process. Granger causality test reveals that only household income (HHI), gross domestic product, interest rate, exchange rates (EXCR) and private capital inflows have a significant effect on the changes in HPs. Nonetheless, the study adds two little-known indicators in the projection of HPs, which are the EXCR and HHI.

The aviation business has had a difficult time due to the COVID-19 pandemic in the past year. As a result, people worldwide are limited to travel which causes a decrease in turnover from a business in the transportation sector, particularly aviation. This condition, indeed, also affects the company’s stock price. This study examines the volatility of stock prices as an initial indication of what has happened and looks at future projections. The method used in this study is the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) in achieving research objectives. The findings found that the autoregressive combined moving average on AR1 and MA1 can show conditions based on past data and predict the projection of its volatility. The aviation business is still considered to survive with daily stock prices that are relatively positive and stable for the next upcoming period.

The versatility of customer relationship management (CRM) systems has kept these technologies popular over the years. These solutions have been integrated into organizations of all sizes, from large corporations to small- and medium-sized enterprises. Similarly, CRM systems have also found applications in all types of industries and business sectors. All this has been the driving force behind the proliferation of CRM solutions around the world. In this chapter, the author not only reflects on the impact and democratization of CRM systems on business management and marketing strategies but also explores how these technologies can determine the company's income. In particular, the author presents an experiment that analyzes the extent to which the volume of annual investment in CRM solutions can be used to predict annual net income in a sample of companies. Using time series analysis and applying the autoregressive integrated moving average modeling technique, the researcher examines a sample of 10 companies from different industries, and countries, over a 20-year period. The results show the efficiency of the predictive models developed in nine of the 10 companies analyzed. The findings of this study allow us to conclude that there seems to be an association between the investments made in CRM solutions and the income of the companies that invest in these technologies.

This study aims to propose a risk-induced game theoretic forecasting model to predict average daily rate (ADR) under COVID-19, using an advanced recurrent neural network.

Using three data sets from upper-midscale hotels in three locations (i.e. urban, interstate and suburb), from January 1, 2018, to August 31, 2020, three long-term, short-term memory (LSTM) models were evaluated against five traditional forecasting models.

The models proposed in this study outperform traditional methods, such that the simplest LSTM model is more accurate than most of the benchmark models in two of the three tested hotels. In particular, the results show that traditional methods are inefficient in hotels with rapid fluctuations of demand and ADR, as observed during the pandemic. In contrast, LSTM models perform more accurately for these hotels.

This study is limited by its use of American data and data from midscale hotels as well as only predicting ADR.

This study produced a reliable, accurate forecasting model considering risk and competitor behavior.

This paper extends the application of game theory principles to ADR forecasting and combines it with the concept of risk for forecasting during uncertain times.

This study is the first study, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, to use actual hotel data from the COVID-19 pandemic to determine an appropriate neural network forecasting method for times of uncertainty. The application of Shapley value and operational risk obtained a game-theoretic property-level model, which fits best.

For policymakers and participants of financial markets, predictions of trading volumes of financial indices are important issues. This study aims to address such a prediction problem based on the CSI300 nearby futures by using high-frequency data recorded each minute from the launch date of the futures to roughly two years after constituent stocks of the futures all becoming shortable, a time period witnessing significantly increased trading activities.

In order to answer questions as follows, this study adopts the neural network for modeling the irregular trading volume series of the CSI300 nearby futures: are the research able to utilize the lags of the trading volume series to make predictions; if this is the case, how far can the predictions go and how accurate can the predictions be; can this research use predictive information from trading volumes of the CSI300 spot and first distant futures for improving prediction accuracy and what is the corresponding magnitude; how sophisticated is the model; and how robust are its predictions?

The results of this study show that a simple neural network model could be constructed with 10 hidden neurons to robustly predict the trading volume of the CSI300 nearby futures using 1–20 min ahead trading volume data. The model leads to the root mean square error of about 955 contracts. Utilizing additional predictive information from trading volumes of the CSI300 spot and first distant futures could further benefit prediction accuracy and the magnitude of improvements is about 1–2%. This benefit is particularly significant when the trading volume of the CSI300 nearby futures is close to be zero. Another benefit, at the cost of the model becoming slightly more sophisticated with more hidden neurons, is that predictions could be generated through 1–30 min ahead trading volume data.

The results of this study could be used for multiple purposes, including designing financial index trading systems and platforms, monitoring systematic financial risks and building financial index price forecasting.