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Article
Publication date: 14 October 2021

Sami Ullah, Muhammad Nadeem, Kishwar Ali and Qaiser Abbas

In this paper, the authors investigate that the increasing level of fossil fuel combustion in the industrial sector has been considered the prime cause for the emissions of…

Abstract

Purpose

In this paper, the authors investigate that the increasing level of fossil fuel combustion in the industrial sector has been considered the prime cause for the emissions of greenhouse gas. Meanwhile, the research focusing on the impact of fossil fuel consumption on the emission of CO2 is limited for the developing countries containing Vietnam. This study applied the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach with structural breaks presence, and the Bayer–Hanck combined cointegration method to observe the rationality of the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis in the dynamic relationship between the industrialization and carbon dioxide (CO2) emission in Vietnam, capturing the role of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows and the fossil fuel consumption over the period of 1975–2019. The outcomes revealed the confirmation of cointegration among the variables and both short and long-run regression parameters indicated the evidence for the presence of a U-shaped association between the level of industrial growth and CO2 emission that is further confirmed by employing the Lind and Mehlum U-test for robustness purpose. The results of Granger causality discovered a unidirectional causality from FDI and fossil fuel consumption to CO2 emission in the short run. For the policy points, this study suggests the use of efficient and low carbon-emitting technologies.

Design/methodology/approach

In order to test for consistency and robustness of the cointegration analysis, this study also applied the ARDL bound testing method to find out long-run association among variables with the existence of the structural break in the dataset. The ARDL method was preferred to other traditional cointegration models; because of the smaller dataset, the results obtained from the ARDL method are efficient and consistent and equally appropriate for I(1) and I(0) variables.

Findings

The short-run and long-run causal associations among variables have been observed by employing the error correction term (ECT) augmented Granger-causality test that revealed the presence of the long-run causality among variables only when the CO2 emission is employed as a dependent variable. The outcomes for short-run causality indicated the presence of unidirectional causality between consumption of fossil fuel and CO2 emission, where the fossil fuel consumptions Granger-cause CO2 emission. Industrial growth has also been found to have an impact on fossil fuel consumptions, however not the opposite. This advocates that the policies aimed at reducing the fossil fuel consumptions would not be harmful to industrial growth as other energy efficient and cleaner technology could be implemented by the firms to substitute the fossil fuel usage.

Originality/value

The study explored the dynamic relationship among FDI, consumption of fossil fuel, industrial growth and the CO2 emission in Vietnam for the time period 1975–2019. The newly established Bayer–Hanck joint cointegration method and the ARDL bound testing were employed by taking into account the structural breaks in the dataset.

Details

Management of Environmental Quality: An International Journal, vol. 33 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1477-7835

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 13 August 2018

Dinabandhu Sethi and Susanta Kumar Sethy

The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between financial inclusion (FI) and economic growth in India.

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between financial inclusion (FI) and economic growth in India.

Design/methodology/approach

To measure FI, a multidimensional time-varying index is proposed following the Human Development Index method. The long-run relationship between FI and economic growth is examined by using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration and nonlinear ARDL approach. Further, the direction of causality is investigated by employing the Toda–Yamamoto Granger causality test.

Findings

The linear cointegration test confirms a long-run relationship between FI and economic growth for India. The improvement in both demand-side and supply-side financial services has a positive impact on economic growth. These results suggest that India can attain long-run economic growth by improving the coverage of FI. However, there is no evidence of nonlinear cointegration, indicating that there is no asymmetric effect of FI on economic growth. Further, the causality test shows that FI granger causes economic growth but not vice versa.

Research limitations/implications

The major limitation of the study is the availability of time series data for all important variables. The index for both demand- and supply-side indicators can be extended with several other important variables in later date once the data are available for those variables.

Practical implications

As the study confirms that FI is one of the main drivers of economic growth, it is suggested that the policy maker emphasizing on financial sector reforms can enjoy economic growth in the long run, especially in developing countries. Therefore, the government and policy makers need to address the issues involved in access to financial services to spur economic growth.

Originality/value

The study examines the long-run relationship between FI and economic growth employing ARDL bound testing approach and nonlinear ARDL approach, separately for demand-side and supply-side indicators. Further, the study uses the Toda–Yamamoto granger causality to find the direction of causal flow between FI and economic growth.

Details

International Journal of Social Economics, vol. 46 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0306-8293

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 17 December 2018

Abbas Ali Chandio, Yuansheng Jiang and Abdul Rehman

This study aims to empirically examine the relationship between energy consumption and agricultural economic growth in Pakistan over the period from 1984 to 2016.

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to empirically examine the relationship between energy consumption and agricultural economic growth in Pakistan over the period from 1984 to 2016.

Design/methodology/approach

This study used the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration to investigate the long-run and short-run determinants of agricultural economic growth in Pakistan.

Findings

The results of the ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration revealed that long-run linkage exists among the study variables. The findings of this paper showed that agricultural economic growth is positively affected by gas consumption and electricity consumption both in the long-run and short run. The long-run and short-run coefficients of gas consumption and electricity consumption were estimated to be 0.906, 0.421, 0.595 and 0.276, respectively. The estimated equation remains stable during the period from 1984 to 2016 as analyzed by the stability tests.

Originality/value

This study considers the relationship between energy consumption and agricultural economic growth in Pakistan by using an ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration. The study has three contributions to economic literature:this study used different unit root tests to test stationarity of the variables such as ADF unit root test by Dicky and Fuller and P-P unit root test by Philip and Perron; the ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration is applied to test the existence of long-run analysis between energy consumption and agricultural economic growth; and to check the robustness, the authors used the Johansen cointegration test to examine the long-run relationship between dependent and independent variables.

Details

International Journal of Energy Sector Management, vol. 13 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1750-6220

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 7 December 2021

Gideon Ntim-Amo, Yin Qi, Ernest Ankrah-Kwarko, Martinson Ankrah Twumasi, Stephen Ansah, Linda Boateng Kissiwa and Ran Ruiping

The purpose of this research is to examine the validity of the agriculture-induced environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis with evidence from an autoregressive distributed…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this research is to examine the validity of the agriculture-induced environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis with evidence from an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach with a structural break including real income and energy consumption in the model for Ghana over the period 1980–2014.

Design/methodology/approach

The ARDL approach with a structural break was used to analyze the agriculture-induced EKC model which has not been studied in Ghana. The dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS), canonical cointegration regression (CCR) and fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) econometric methods were further used to validate the robustness of the estimates, and the direction of the relationship between the study variables was also clarified using the Toda–Yamamoto Granger causality test.

Findings

The ARDL results revealed that GDP, energy consumption and agricultural value added have significant positive effects on CO2 emissions, while GDP2 reduces CO2 emissions. The Toda-Yamamoto causality test results show a bidirectional causality running from GDP and energy consumption to CO2 emissions whereas a unidirectional long-term causality runs from GDP2 and agriculture value-added to CO2 emissions.

Practical implications

This finding validated the presence of the agriculture-induced EKC hypothesis in Ghana in both the short run and long run, and the important role of agriculture and energy consumption in economic growth was confirmed by the respective bidirectional and unidirectional causal relationships between the two variables and GDP. Thus, a reduction in unsustainable agricultural practices is recommended through specific policies to strengthen institutional quality in Ghana for a paradigm shift from rudimentary technology to modern sustainable agrarian technologies.

Originality/value

This study is novel in the EKC literature in Ghana, as no study has yet been done on agriculture-induced EKC in Ghana, and the other EKC studies also failed to account for structural breaks which have been done by this study. This study further includes a causality analysis to examine the direction of the relationship which the few EKC studies in Ghana failed to address. Finally, dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS), canonical cointegration regression (CCR) and fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) methods are used for robustness check, unlike other studies with single methodologies.

Details

Management of Environmental Quality: An International Journal, vol. 33 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1477-7835

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 29 June 2021

Thazhungal Govindan Saji

The Global recession of 2008 was the worst financial crisis in the postworld war economic history that brought in severe disruptions in global investments and capital flows. Not…

Abstract

Purpose

The Global recession of 2008 was the worst financial crisis in the postworld war economic history that brought in severe disruptions in global investments and capital flows. Not surprisingly, research interest in the field of market integration has considerably increased over the last decade. This paper analyses the dynamics of price integration among Asian financial markets during the postfinancial crisis period.

Design/methodology/approach

We employ an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration and a Granger Causality/Block Exogeniety test from a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) on monthly stock index data of five leading Asian economies from April 2009 to March 2020.

Findings

The cointegration results could not produce any conclusive evidence of long-run relations between stock markets. There exists weak price convergence among markets, and financial integration is partial and in an imperfect form.

Research limitations/implications

Stock price performance in China is closely “coupled” with that in India, but both markets appear to be the short-run predictors of Asian stock returns. The research uses only the benchmark stock indices of the selected economies. Consideration of mid-cap and small-cap segments where foreign investments are significant today can validate the findings further.

Practical implications

The asymmetric pattern of price behavior of Asian markets has important implications for the pricing efficiency of national markets and offers arbitrage potentials for global investors to optimize returns through market diversifications on a long-term perspective. The finding definitely will be a great help to investors who are potentially interested in a trading strategy that offers greater returns with limited exposure to market risks.

Originality/value

Compared with previous studies, the research uses the most recent data of leading Asian markets and applies the robust method of ARDL Bounds testing approach that allows us to understand better if the economic recoveries and advancement have had an effect on market coupling and stock price transmissions.

Details

Managerial Finance, vol. 47 no. 11
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0307-4358

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 31 January 2022

İsmail Cem Özgüler, Z. Göknur Büyükkara and C. Coskun Küçüközmen

The purpose of this study is to determine the Turkish housing price and rent dynamics among seven big cities with a unique monthly data set over 2003–2019. The secondary purpose…

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to determine the Turkish housing price and rent dynamics among seven big cities with a unique monthly data set over 2003–2019. The secondary purpose is to examine bubble dynamics within the price convergence framework through alternative tests.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper conducts two autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) cointegration estimates for housing prices and rents and applies conditional error correction model to investigate the long-run drivers of the Turkish housing market. The authors compare ARDL cointegration in-sample forecasts and discounted cash flow (DCF) estimates with actual prices to determine the timing, magnitude and collapse period(s) of bubbles within the price convergence framework. In particular, the generalized sup augmented Dickey–Fuller (GSADF) approach time stamps multiple explosive price behaviors.

Findings

The ARDL results confirm the theory of investment value by addressing mortgage rates, the price-to-rent ratio and rents as the fundamental factors of house prices. The price-to-rent ratio offers a comparison mechanism among houses deciding to buy a new house in which rents increase monthly real estate investment returns, and mortgage rates act as the discount rate. One key finding is that these dynamics have a greater impact on house prices than mortgage rates. Furthermore, the ARDL, DCF and GSADF findings exhibit temporal overvaluations rather than bubble signals, implying that housing price appreciations, including explosive behaviors, are consistent with fundamental advances.

Originality/value

This paper is considered to be innovative in determining housing market dynamics through two different ARDL estimates for the Turkish housing price index and rents in real terms as dependent variables. The authors compare the boom and collapse periods of the real housing price index and its fundamentals via the GSADF test. A final key feature of this research is its extensive data set, with 11 different regressors between 2003 and 2019.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 16 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 13 October 2020

Ahamed Lebbe Mohamed Aslam and Selliah Sivarajasingham

The purpose of this study aims to investigate the nature of the relationship between workers' remittances and financial development (FD) in Sri Lanka for the period from 1975 to…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study aims to investigate the nature of the relationship between workers' remittances and financial development (FD) in Sri Lanka for the period from 1975 to 2017.

Design/methodology/approach

This study used both the exploratory data analysis and inferential data analysis (IDA) techniques to test the objective of this study. The IDA technique consisted of the augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) and Phillips–Perron unit root tests, the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds cointegration technique, the Granger causality test and impulse response function analysis.

Findings

The unit root test results show that the variables are in mixed order. The empirical results of cointegration confirm that workers' remittances have a beneficial long-run relationship with FD in Sri Lanka. The Granger causality test result indicates that there is a bidirectional relationship between workers' remittances and FD. The impulse response analysis indicates that a positive shock to workers' remittance has an immediate significant positive impact on the FD of up to 10 years.

Practical implications

The analytical techniques used in this study explain how workers' remittances induce FD in Sri Lanka.

Originality/value

This study fills an important gap in the academic literature by using newly developed ARDL bounds cointegration techniques in Sri Lanka, by using impulse response function analysis, and by studying the dynamic relationship between workers' remittances and FD using time series data.

Details

International Journal of Social Economics, vol. 47 no. 11
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0306-8293

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 6 November 2007

Tuck Cheong Tang

The purpose of this paper is to empirically investigate the money demand function for five Southeast Asian countries, viz. Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore, the Philippines, and…

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to empirically investigate the money demand function for five Southeast Asian countries, viz. Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore, the Philippines, and Indonesia.

Design/methodology/approach

The ARDL modeling approach is employed because of its ability to incorporate both I(0) and I(1) regressors.

Findings

The results reveal that real M2 aggregate, real expenditure components, exchange rate, and inflation rate are cointegrated for Malaysia, the Philippines, and Singapore. The statistical significance of real income components suggests the bias of using single real income variable in money demand (M2 aggregate) specification of both short‐ and long‐run. The CUSUM and CUSUMSQ tests show that the estimated parameters are stable for the five Southeast Asian economies, except for Indonesia which is based on short‐run specification.

Practical implications

These findings are important for policy makers in formulating monetary policy.

Originality/value

Besides conventional determinants of money demand such as exchange rate and interest rate variables, this study considers the major components of final expenditure (GDP) – final consumption expenditures (private and government sectors), expenditures on investment goods, and exports as scale variables.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 34 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 7 May 2020

Hummera Saleem, Malik Shahzad Shabbir and Muhammad Bilal khan

The purpose of this study is to analyze the dynamic causal relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI), gross domestic product (GDP) and trade openness (TO) on a set of…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to analyze the dynamic causal relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI), gross domestic product (GDP) and trade openness (TO) on a set of five selected South Asian countries.

Design/methodology/approach

This study used newly developed bootstrap auto regressive distributed lags (ARDL) cointegration test to examine the long-run relationship among FDI, GDP and TO for selected South Asian countries for 1975–2016.

Findings

The economic growth (EG) is significantly related to TO for Bangladesh, India and Sri Lanka and the expansion of TO is crucial for growth in these countries. The results show that all countries (except Bangladesh) found the existence of long-run cointegration between FDI, GDP and TO, whereas FDI is a dependent variable. These results concluded that FDI and TO are contributing to EG in these selected countries.

Originality/value

This study is one of the first attempts to investigate the causal relationship and address the short and long dynamic among FDI, GDP and TO regarding five south Asian countries such as Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka.

Details

South Asian Journal of Business Studies, vol. 9 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2398-628X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 14 February 2023

Muhammed Ashiq Villanthenkodath and Shreya Pal

This study scrutinizes the impact of economic globalization on ecological footprint while endogenizing economic growth and energy consumption during 1990–2018 in India.

Abstract

Purpose

This study scrutinizes the impact of economic globalization on ecological footprint while endogenizing economic growth and energy consumption during 1990–2018 in India.

Design/methodology/approach

For time series analysis, the standard unit root test has been employed to unveil the integration order. Then, the cointegration was confirmed using autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) analysis. Further, the study executed the dynamic ARDL simulation model to estimate long-run and short-run results along with simulation and robotic prediction.

Findings

The cointegration analysis confirms the existence of a long-run association among variables. Further, economic globalization reduces the ecological footprint in the long-run. Similarly, energy consumption decreases the ecological footprint. In contrast, economic growth spurs the ecological footprint in India.

Originality/value

The present study makes valuable and original contributions to the literature by applying a multivariate ecological footprint function, assessing the impact of economic globalization on ecological footprint while considering economic growth and energy consumption in India.

Details

Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1026-4116

Keywords

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