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Article
Publication date: 17 March 2023

Le Wang, Liping Zou and Ji Wu

This paper aims to use artificial neural network (ANN) methods to predict stock price crashes in the Chinese equity market.

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to use artificial neural network (ANN) methods to predict stock price crashes in the Chinese equity market.

Design/methodology/approach

Three ANN models are developed and compared with the logistic regression model.

Findings

Results from this study conclude that the ANN approaches outperform the traditional logistic regression model, with fewer hidden layers in the ANN model having superior performance compared to the ANNs with multiple hidden layers. Results from the ANN approach also reveal that foreign institutional ownership, financial leverage, weekly average return and market-to-book ratio are the important variables when predicting stock price crashes, consistent with results from the traditional logistic model.

Originality/value

First, the ANN framework has been used in this study to forecast the stock price crashes and compared to the traditional logistic model in the world’s largest emerging market China. Second, the receiver operating characteristics curves and the area under the ROC curve have been used to evaluate the forecasting performance between the ANNs and the traditional approaches, in addition to some traditional performance evaluation methods.

Details

Pacific Accounting Review, vol. 35 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0114-0582

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 24 January 2023

Yali Wang, Jian Zuo, Min Pan, Bocun Tu, Rui-Dong Chang, Shicheng Liu, Feng Xiong and Na Dong

Accurate and timely cost prediction is critical to the success of construction projects which is still facing challenges especially at the early stage. In the context of rapid…

Abstract

Purpose

Accurate and timely cost prediction is critical to the success of construction projects which is still facing challenges especially at the early stage. In the context of rapid development of machine learning technology and the massive cost data from historical projects, this paper aims to propose a novel cost prediction model based on historical data with improved performance when only limited information about the new project is available.

Design/methodology/approach

The proposed approach combines regression analysis (RA) and artificial neural network (ANN) to build a novel hybrid cost prediction model with the former as front-end prediction and the latter as back-end correction. Firstly, the main factors influencing the cost of building projects are identified through literature research and subsequently screened by principal component analysis (PCA). Secondly the optimal RA model is determined through multi-model comparison and used for front-end prediction. Finally, ANN is applied to construct the error correction model. The hybrid RA-ANN model was trained and tested with cost data from 128 completed construction projects in China.

Findings

The results show that the hybrid cost prediction model has the advantages of both RA and ANN whose prediction accuracy is higher than that of RA and ANN only with the information such as total floor area, height and number of floors.

Originality/value

(1) The most critical influencing factors of the buildings’ cost are found out by means of PCA on the historical data. (2) A novel hybrid RA-ANN model is proposed which proved to have the advantages of both RA and ANN with higher accuracy. (3) The comparison among different models has been carried out which is helpful to future model selection.

Details

Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0969-9988

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 5 November 2019

R. Dale Wilson and Harriette Bettis-Outland

Artificial neural network (ANN) models, part of the discipline of machine learning and artificial intelligence, are becoming more popular in the marketing literature and in…

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Abstract

Purpose

Artificial neural network (ANN) models, part of the discipline of machine learning and artificial intelligence, are becoming more popular in the marketing literature and in marketing practice. This paper aims to provide a series of tests between ANN models and competing predictive models.

Design/methodology/approach

A total of 46 pairs of models were evaluated in an objective model-building environment. Either logistic regression or multiple regression models were developed and then were compared to ANN models using the same set of input variables. Three sets of B2B data were used to test the models. Emphasis also was placed on evaluating small samples.

Findings

ANN models tend to generate model predictions that are more accurate or the same as logistic regression models. However, when ANN models are compared to multiple regression models, the results are mixed. For small sample sizes, the modeling results are the same as for larger samples.

Research limitations/implications

Like all marketing research, this application is limited by the methods and the data used to conduct the research. The findings strongly suggest that, because of their predictive accuracy, ANN models will have an important role in the future of B2B marketing research and model-building applications.

Practical implications

ANN models should be carefully considered for potential use in marketing research and model-building applications by B2B academics and practitioners alike.

Originality/value

The research contributes to the B2B marketing literature by providing a more rigorous test on ANN models using B2B data than has been conducted before.

Details

Journal of Business & Industrial Marketing, vol. 35 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0885-8624

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 11 November 2013

Ezzatollah Haghighat, Seyed Mohammad Etrati and Saeed Shaikhzadeh Najar

This paper aims to predict the needle penetration force (NPF) in denim fabrics using the artificial neural network (ANN) and multiple linear regression (MLR) models based on the…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to predict the needle penetration force (NPF) in denim fabrics using the artificial neural network (ANN) and multiple linear regression (MLR) models based on the effects of various sewing parameters.

Design/methodology/approach

In order to design the ANN and MLR models, four parameters including fabric weight, number of fabric layers, weave pattern, and sewing needle size are taken into account as the input parameters and NPF as the output parameter. According to these parameters, 140 samples of data were resulted. Each sample was tested five times. From these 140 data (input-output data pairs), 112 were used for training the ANN and MLR models and 28 samples were used to test the performance of ANN and MLR. Also, the NPF was measured on the Instron tensile tester to simulate sewing process.

Findings

The results indicated that the NPF in denim fabrics can be well predicted in terms of sewing parameters by using ANN and MLR models, in which the ANN model exhibits greater performance than MLR (RANN=0.989> RMLR=0.901).

Research limitations/implications

The NPF measurement method is limited at low speed.

Originality/value

Using the ANN model for forecasting NPF in denim fabrics can help the garment manufactures to produce high-quality denim products and improve the sewing process through reducing seam damage. The NPF could be also measured in the cycle loading conditions similar to sewing machine process by using a special designed tools mounted on the Instron tensile tester.

Details

International Journal of Clothing Science and Technology, vol. 25 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0955-6222

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 22 July 2021

Sneha Patil, Mahesh Goudar and Ravindra Kharadkar

For decades, continuous research work is going on to maximize the power harvested from the sun; however, there is only a limited analysis on exploiting the microwatt output power…

Abstract

Purpose

For decades, continuous research work is going on to maximize the power harvested from the sun; however, there is only a limited analysis on exploiting the microwatt output power from indoor lightings. Microelectronic system has power demand in the µW range, and therefore, indoor photovoltaics would be appropriate for micro-energy harvesting appliances. “Energy harvesting is defined as the transfer process by which energy source is acquired from the ambient energy, stored in energy storage element and powered to the target systems”. The theory of energy harvesting is: gathering energy from surroundings and offering technological solutions such as solar energy harvesting, wind energy collection and vibration energy harvesting. “The solar cell or photovoltaic cell (PV), is a device that converts light into electric current using the photoelectric effect”. Factors such as light source, temperature, circuit connection, light intensity, angle and height can manipulate the functions of PV cells. Among these, the most noticeable factor is the light intensity that has a major impact on the operations of solar panels.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper aims to design an enhanced prediction model on illuminance or irradiance by an optimized artificial neural network (ANN). The input attributes or the features considered here are temperatures, maxim, TSL, VI, short circuit current, open-circuit voltage, maximum power point (MPP) voltage, MPP current and MPP power, respectively. To enhance the performance of the prediction model, the weights of ANN are optimally tuned by a new self-improved brain storm optimization (SI-BSO) model.

Findings

The superiority of the implemented work is compared and proved over the conventional models in terms of error analysis and prediction analysis. Accordingly, the presented approach was analysed and its superiority was proved over other conventional schemes such as ANN, ANN-Levenberg–Marquardt (LM), adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and brainstorm optimization (BSO). In addition, analysis was held with respect to error measures such as mean absolute relative error (MARE), mean square root error (MSRE), mean absolute error and mean absolute percentage error. Moreover, prediction analysis was also performed that revealed the betterment of the presented model. More particularly, the proposed ANN + SI-BSO model has attained minimal error for all measures when compared to the existing schemes. More particularly, on considering the MARE, the adopted model for data set 1 was 23.61%, 48.12%, 79.39% and 90.86% better than ANN, ANN-LM, ANFIS and BSO models, respectively. Similarly, on considering data set 2, the MSRE of the implemented model was 99.87%, 70.69%, 99.57% and 94.74% better than ANN, ANN-LM, ANFIS and BSO models, respectively. Thus, the enhancement of the presented ANN + SI-BSO scheme has been validated effectively.

Originality/value

This work has established an improved illuminance/irradiance prediction model using the optimization concept. Here, the attributes, namely, temperature, maxim, TSL, VI, Isc, Voc, Vmpp, Impp and Pmpp were given as input to ANN, in which the weights were chosen optimally. For the optimal selection of weights, a novel ANN + SI-BSO model was established, which was an improved version of the BSO model.

Details

Journal of Engineering, Design and Technology , vol. 20 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1726-0531

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 7 September 2015

Nooshin Zeinalizadeh, Amir Abbas Shojaie and Mohammad Shariatmadari

The purpose of this paper is to propose the application of artificial neural networks (ANN) to predict overall bank customer satisfaction and to prioritize influencing factors on…

2073

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to propose the application of artificial neural networks (ANN) to predict overall bank customer satisfaction and to prioritize influencing factors on customer satisfaction.

Design/methodology/approach

Data are collected from 436 randomly selected customers at ten different branches of an Iranian bank using a questionnaire consisting of 51 questions. An exploratory factor analysis (EFA) is done on the collected data to determine those factors that influence customer satisfaction. A multilayer perceptron ANN model is developed using the factor scores from the EFA. The ANN model is trained and validated to predict overall bank customer satisfaction. In addition, a linear regression model is developed to predict customer satisfaction. Prediction accuracy of the ANN model is compared with that of the linear regression model. The developed ANN is then used to compare sensitivity of customer satisfaction to each influencing factor.

Findings

Nine different influencing factors are extracted by EFA. The factors include Fees and Loans, Prompt Service, Appearance, Technological Service, Responsiveness, Reliability and Trustworthiness, Employees’ Attitudes and Behaviors, Accessibility to Bank and Availability of Service, and Interest Rates. Training and validation results show that the ANN model has 73 percent higher accuracy compared to the linear regression model in predicting overall bank customer satisfaction. Factor prioritization results show that Fees and Loans, Appearance, and Prompt Service have the highest impact on customer satisfaction, respectively; interest rate and accessibility to bank and availability of service are the least dominant factors influencing overall bank customer satisfaction.

Practical implications

This study proposes a more reliable and accurate methodology to predict customer satisfaction when compared with regression-based methods. ANN can also be utilized by bank management systems to prioritize different influencing factors that affect the satisfaction level of bank customers.

Originality/value

This paper advances the knowledge on bank customer satisfaction by proposing application of artificial intelligence methods. A case study is discussed and results of the application of an ANN are compared with those of a commonly used statistical regression model.

Details

International Journal of Bank Marketing, vol. 33 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0265-2323

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 2 May 2017

Normah Omar, Zulaikha ‘Amirah Johari and Malcolm Smith

This paper aims to explore the effectiveness of an artificial neural network (ANN) in predicting fraudulent financial reporting in small market capitalization companies in…

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Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to explore the effectiveness of an artificial neural network (ANN) in predicting fraudulent financial reporting in small market capitalization companies in Malaysia.

Design/methodology/approach

Based on the concepts of ANN, a mathematical model was developed to compare non-fraud and fraud companies selected from among small market capitalization companies in Malaysia; the fraud companies had already been charged by the Securities Commission for falsification of financial statements. Ten financial ratios are used as fraud risk indicators to predict fraudulent financial reporting using ANN.

Findings

The findings indicate that the proposed ANN methodology outperforms other statistical techniques widely used for predicting fraudulent financial reporting.

Originality/value

The study is one of few to adopt the ANN approach for the prediction of financial reporting fraud.

Details

Journal of Financial Crime, vol. 24 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1359-0790

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 2 November 2012

William McCluskey, Peadar Davis, Martin Haran, Michael McCord and David McIlhatton

The aim of this paper is to investigate the comparative performance of an artificial neural network (ANN) and several multiple regression techniques in terms of their predictive…

Abstract

Purpose

The aim of this paper is to investigate the comparative performance of an artificial neural network (ANN) and several multiple regression techniques in terms of their predictive accuracy and capability of being used within the mass appraisal industry.

Design/methodology/approach

The methodology first tested that the data set had neglected non‐linearity which suggested that a non‐linear modelling technique should be applied. Given the capability of ANNs to model non‐linear data, this technique was used along with an OLS regression model (baseline model) and two non‐linear multiple regression techniques. In addition, the models were evaluated in terms of predictive accuracy and their capability of use within the mass appraisal environment.

Findings

Previous studies which have compared the predictive performance of an ANN model against multiple regression techniques are inconclusive. Having superior predictive capability is important but equally important is whether the technique can be successfully employed for the mass appraisal of residential property. This research found that a non‐linear regression model had higher predictive accuracy than the ANN. Also the output of the ANN was not sufficiently transparent to provide an unambiguous appraisal model upon which predicted values could be defended against objections.

Research limitations/implications

The research provides an informative view as to the efficacy of ANN methodology within the real estate field. A number of issues have been raised on the applicability of ANN models within the mass appraisal environment.

Practical implications

This work demonstrates that ANNs whilst useful as a predictive tool have a limited practical role for the assessment of residential property values for property tax purposes.

Originality/value

The work has taken forward the debate on the usefulness of ANN techniques within the mass appraisal environment.

Details

Journal of Financial Management of Property and Construction, vol. 17 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1366-4387

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 February 2004

Eija Koskivaara

This article gives an overview of artificial neural network (ANN) studies conducted in the auditing field. The review pays attention to application domains, data and sample sets…

3149

Abstract

This article gives an overview of artificial neural network (ANN) studies conducted in the auditing field. The review pays attention to application domains, data and sample sets, ANN‐architectures and learning parameters. The article argues that these auditing ANN‐applications could serve the analytical review (AR) process. The summary of the findings pays attention to whether authors state that ANNs have potential to improve analytical review (AR) procedures. Furthermore, the article evaluates which are the most influential contributions and which are open ends in the field. The article makes some practical suggestions to motivate academics and practitioners to collaborate in further exploration of the potential of ANNs.

Details

Managerial Auditing Journal, vol. 19 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0268-6902

Keywords

Content available
Article
Publication date: 21 June 2021

Shashi K. Shahi, Mohamed Dia, Peizhi Yan and Salimur Choudhury

The measurement capabilities of the data envelopment analysis (DEA) models are used to train the artificial neural network (ANN) models for the best performance modeling of the…

Abstract

Purpose

The measurement capabilities of the data envelopment analysis (DEA) models are used to train the artificial neural network (ANN) models for the best performance modeling of the sawmills in Ontario. The bootstrap DEA models measure robust technical efficiency scores and have benchmarking abilities, whereas the ANN models use abstract learning from a limited set of information and provide the predictive power.

Design/methodology/approach

The complementary modeling approaches of the DEA and the ANN provide an adaptive decision support tool for each sawmill.

Findings

The trained ANN models demonstrate promising results in predicting the relative efficiency scores and the optimal combination of the inputs and the outputs for three categories (large, medium and small) of sawmills in Ontario. The average absolute error in predicting the relative efficiency scores varies from 0.01 to 0.04, and the predicted optimal combination of the inputs (roundwood and employees) and the output (lumber) demonstrate that a large percentage of the sawmills shows less than 10% error in the prediction results.

Originality/value

The purpose of this study is to develop an integrated DEA-ANN model that can help in the continuous improvement and performance evaluations of the forest industry working under uncertain business environment.

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