Search results1 – 3 of 3
Deterministic valuations of any type are increasingly subjected to criticism. Single point estimates of market value are arguably insufficiently informative where the…
Deterministic valuations of any type are increasingly subjected to criticism. Single point estimates of market value are arguably insufficiently informative where the estimate is prone to error. Residual valuations are probably most open to variation as a result of changes in the variable inputs, that is to say the result is sensitive. This paper suggests that if the probability and degree of error are made explicit in any development appraisal the potential developer can at least judge how much risk is involved and is thus better equipped to make a decision. Existing microcomputer programmes can be utilised for this purpose, together with published statistical tables, so that non‐mathematicians can reach valuable conclusions hitherto available only after very complex calculations.
It is proposed that the use of Statistical Process Control (SPC) in the UK is likely to follow one of three paths: — it will be used and management will await the next impetus from the Japanese before developing the techniques; — there will be a reaction against the changes inherent in implementing SPC, such that systems deteriorate and perhaps fade all together; — Britain could take the lead and develop the way forward in the pursuit of ever increasing quality. This article considers changes in the thinking, philosophy and strategy of quality that will have to take place for Britain to lead the way forward.
There is a paradox in the normative foundations for chronic and intertemporal poverty measurement. Measures that reflect particular aversion to chronicity of poverty…
There is a paradox in the normative foundations for chronic and intertemporal poverty measurement. Measures that reflect particular aversion to chronicity of poverty cannot also reflect particular aversion to fluctuations in the level of poverty when poverty is intense, yet good arguments are made in favour of each of these properties. I argue that the paradox may be explained if the poverty analyst implicitly predicts that an individual observed to experience persistent poverty will continue to experience poverty when unobserved. The paradox may then be resolved by separating the normative exercise of evaluation, applying a measure that reflects particular aversion to fluctuations, from a positive exercise of modelling and prediction. This proposal is illustrated by application to panel data from rural Ethiopia, covering the period 1994–2004. Several dynamic models are estimated, and a simple model with household-specific trends is found to give the best predictions of future wellbeing levels. Appropriately normalised measures of intertemporal poverty are applied to the predicted and observed trajectories of wellbeing, and results are found to differ substantially from naïve application of the measures to observed periods only. While similar results are obtained by naïve application of the measures that embody particular aversion to chronicity, separation of the normative and positive exercises maintains conceptual clarity.