Search results

The purpose of this paper is to postulate the impact of preferential trade agreements (PTAs) on internationalization strategies of member countries’ firms. The study also aims to triangulate the proposed model using empirical data from PTA partner economies.

The mixed methods research design is used for the purpose of inquiry as suggested by Creswell. The inductive reasoning based on critical literature review and grounded theory methodology is used to postulate the model. Explanatory strength of the model is triangulated using empirical longitudinal trade data of Pakistan with her bilateral PTA partners, i.e. Malaysia, Mauritius, Iran, Sri Lanka and China. Internationalization indices are adapted following the Ietto-Gillies and London (2009) and Petri (1994) to measure the intensity and geographical diversification dimensions of internationalization. Country-level trade statistics are used as a proxy of firm-level data to explain the international expansion of home firms resulting from PTAs.

Empirical results confirm a strong and long-term impact of PTAs on the intensity and extensity dimensions of internationalization over post-agreement period in Pakistan and member economies. Gravity index depicts greater concentration of Pakistan's trade in FTA markets and thereby confirms the influence of PTAs on international market selection. Analysis at sectoral level depicts a contraction in services trade whereas expansion in the manufacturing firms’ export growth to member economies.

The paper extends the theory of internationalization by identifying PTAs as exogenous variable influencing internationalization strategies of member countries’ firms in a developing South Asian context. Coupled with findings from empirical data, the study identifies PTAs as a new strategic trade policy tool available to policy makers for promoting and influencing the home firms’ internationalization strategies.

This article investigates the impact of foreign trade on carbon emissions of the member countries of the largest trade bloc, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP).

The aggregate bilateral trade with members of RCEP during the period 1991–2020 was considered for analysis. The study also examines the impact of foreign trade (between member countries) on economic development, represented by GDP per capita. Dumitrescu–Hurlin panel Granger causality test was conducted to understand the impact of foreign trade on GDP per capita and carbon emissions.

Results indicate that though foreign trade is heterogeneously Granger causing GDP per capita, it also aggravates carbon emissions in RCEP bloc.

The study is of significance to the policymakers in the member countries as it provides evidence to include climate impact in trade agreements. The wealthier RCEP member countries can support the green transition of low-income countries through transfer of eco-friendly technologies.

The purpose of this paper is to simulate the effects of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) on trade and income, with a particular interest in the effect on China and Korea.

This paper adopts a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model developed by Li et al. (2017) to simulate the effect of RCEP. The CGE model is grounded in the firm heterogeneity theory. Within this framework, the feature of dynamic movements of firms allows the CGE model to capture the extensive margin of trade increase. Aside from that, the CGE model separates foreign direct investment (FDI) from domestic investment, which helps to explain the effect of the removal of FDI barriers.

Results show that RCEP will increase trade of China by 1.5 percent. The income of China will increase by 2.5 percent. The trade increase of Korea will be $8bn, and its income will increase by 0.6 percent. In terms of welfare, China will gain $214bn and Korea will gain $23~35bn, taking 2~3 percent of Korea’s GDP. Also, the reduction of behind-the-border barriers presents very significant effects.

The main contribution of this paper is to quantitatively assess the potential effects of RCEP on trade and income. The positive findings would propel RCEP parties, especially China and Korea, to reach an agreement as soon as possible.

The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has been negatively affecting international trade between countries; however, there is a lack of empirical studies on developing countries such as Vietnam. This article aims to investigate how the COVID-19 cases and related deaths and policy response by Vietnam and trading partners to the pandemic affect Vietnam's export activities.

The authors use the monthly trade data from the General Department of Vietnam Customs and employ the Poisson pseudo-maximum-likelihood (PPML) estimator to empirically investigate the effects of COVID-19 and policy response to the pandemic on Vietnam's exports at aggregate and sectoral levels over a 33-month period.

In the first year of the pandemic (January–December 2020) as well as the whole study period (January 2019–September 2021), trading partners' COVID-19 burden adversely affected Vietnam's aggregate exports, and the effect of COVID-19 deaths is significantly larger than that of COVID-19 cases. In the first year of the pandemic, estimates show a negative effect of Vietnam's COVID-19 cases on its exports, while no evidence reveals the impact of Vietnam's COVID-19 deaths. However, during the entire study period, there are remarkable adverse effects of Vietnam's COVID-19 deaths on its exports. The effect of the COVID-19 burden in Vietnam and in its trading partners differs significantly across major subsectors. In the first year, there is a positive role of government response to the pandemic by Vietnam and its trading partners in Vietnam's aggregate exports, while in the whole study period, only a positive effect of Vietnam's government response is found. Economic support and free trade agreements (FTAs) have a positive effect on Vietnam's exports. In the first year of the pandemic, Vietnam's export losses due to COVID-19 outweighed its export gains from the pandemic. However, Vietnam's exports have significantly improved over the nine months of 2021.

Efforts should aim to reduce the number of COVID-19 deaths rather than focus on reducing the number of COVID-19 cases. The application of stringency measures by both exporters and importers should be minimized, or at least those measures need to be combined with health methods, such as testing policy and contact tracing, short-term investment in healthcare and especially investments in vaccines. In addition, economic support, particularly debt relief, needs to be widely applied to assist firms, especially those involved in international trade. The expansion of FTA networks and diversifying export destinations may be helpful in maintaining production networks and export activities.

In the long-term period, the application of stringency measures by both exporters and importers should be minimized, or at least those measures need to be combined with health methods such as testing policy and contact tracing, short-term investment in healthcare and especially investments in vaccines. In addition, economic assistance, particularly debt relief, needs to be widely applied to assist firms, especially those involved in international trade activities.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, the paper is among the first studies empirically investigating the impacts of COVID-19 and policy response to the pandemic on aggregate and sectoral exports from Vietnam. The paper also measures the absolute value of export gain and export loss due to the pandemic between Vietnam and trading countries.

The scope of this work is to explore whether Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) would be beneficial to Bangladesh, given Bangladesh's strong ties with India and the west.

Using extended gravity equation and data from Head and Mayer (2021) and the Direction of Trade Statistic (IMF, 2021) for Bangladesh with its applicable partner countries from 1972 till 2019, the authors attempted to examine the potential impact of joining RCEP while keeping its relationship with South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), and other existing economic integration schemes intact.

Using traditional pooled ordinary least squares, two-stage least square and generalized method of moment techniques, it has been revealed that conventional partners in the South led by India are still beneficial to Bangladeshs trading line. Joining RCEP provides ample avenues for trade expansion without replacing the positive effects of SAARC.

Traditional partners from European, American and South Asian trading opportunities are still paying enough dividends to Bangladesh. RCEP is providing a trade-enhancing chance for Bangladesh in the eastern direction. This paper provides a policy suggestion to look east policy of government. A total overhaul of her tax structure through minimizing excessive reliance on import tariff revenue is desired to facilitate her to join RCEP in the future because most of its prospective RCEP partners are import partners.

This is the first and the only study which explores the feasibility of Bangladesh to join the RCEP by using the most recently updated gravity data in a panel framework.

1. Since its inception on November 15, 2020, Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) has emerged as one of the largest economic integration areas in the world.

2. As a borderline country between South Asia and RCEP, Bangladesh is in a fix to take a decision either to join or not to join RCEP if they are invited.

3. This paper used the gravity equation in an extended form by taking Bangladesh with its 197 trading partners’ trade data for 1972–2019.

4. The findings postulate that the existing relationship with SAARC countries is still beneficial to its welfare, and RCEP is also economically helpful in enhancing its trade.

Since its inception on November 15, 2020, Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) has emerged as one of the largest economic integration areas in the world.

As a borderline country between South Asia and RCEP, Bangladesh is in a fix to take a decision either to join or not to join RCEP if they are invited.

This paper used the gravity equation in an extended form by taking Bangladesh with its 197 trading partners’ trade data for 1972–2019.

The findings postulate that the existing relationship with SAARC countries is still beneficial to its welfare, and RCEP is also economically helpful in enhancing its trade.

This study aims to find the impact of the trade war between the USA and China on Asian economies. Apart from macroeconomic variables associated with trade, this study explicitly creates a trade war scenario and trade war participant dummies. Using the neural network multilayer perceptron, this study checks for the causal linkages between the predictors and target output for the panel of Asian economies and the USA.

A conceptual model of the after effects of trade war in a quadrant is developed. Variables related to trade and tariffs are included in the study for a panel of 19 Asian economies. The feedforward structure of neural network analysis is used to identify strong and weak predictors of trade war.

The hidden layers of the multilayer perceptron reveal the inconsistency in linkages for the predictors’ services exports, tariff measures, anti-dumping measures, trade war scenario dummy with gross domestic product. The findings suggest that to curtail the impact of the trade war on Asian economies, predictors with neural evidence must be paid due weightage in policy determination and trade agreements.

The study applies a novel and little explored AI/ML technique of Neural Network analysis with training of 70% observations. The paper will provide opportunity for other researchers to explore techniques of AI/ML in trade studies.

The purpose of this paper is to identify major macroeconomic factors that enhance foreign direct investment (FDI) for Pakistan through the co‐integration and error correction model over a 28‐year time period, i.e. between 1980 and 2008.

The study employed the Johansen co‐integration technique to estimate the long‐run relationship between the variables, while an error correction model was used to determine the short‐run dynamics of the system.

Finding suggests that FDI has had a significant positive impact on Pakistan's economic growth in the long run. For example, trade liberalization and their interactive terms have a positive effect in the short run, while a negative effect is observed in the long run upon economic growth of Pakistan. The results indicate that due to a low quality of human capital in Pakistan; the direct effect of FDI on economic growth becomes negative.

The study was limited to a few variables, including human capital, trade openness, government size, population and consumer price index, in order to manage robust data analysis.

The authors find that for FDI to be a significant contributor to economic growth in Pakistan, government must focus upon improving physical infrastructure, and quality of human resources.

The study confirms that Pakistan did not enjoy substantial growth benefits from FDI because human capital, trade openness, government size and interactive terms of FDI and per capita income have a negative impact on economic growth. These findings have important policy implications.

This study analyzes the policy initiatives that have been adopted by the US government since the 1930s. We document the institutional bodies responsible for the implementation of trade policy, as well as the objectives and decision making practices that are associated with policy formation. We also examine the new institutional movement of the Trump Administration’s neo-protectionist “America First” trade policy and its potential impact on the Asian region. Finally, our study examines the recent renegotiation of Korea-US FTA from a perspective of each country’s internal decision making process and discusses a number of issues that have relevant applications for Korea. The results from our analysis show that U.S trade policy show that despite a long period of an open and liberalized trade policy focus, recent neo-protectionist measures by President Trump could lead to potential trade wars and a return to the beggar-thy-neighbor policies of the 1930s. Such an anti-globalization agenda could have dire consequences for export dependent countries in the Asian region.

The purpose of this paper is to explore and compare the extent of intellectual capital (IC) and its four components among ASEAN countries, and examine the relationship between firms’ IC, market value, and financial performance.

The study uses the data of 213 technology firms listed on five ASEAN stock exchanges. Pulic’s Value Added Intellectual Coefficient model is modified by adding an extra component, namely, relational capital efficiency (RCE). The Kruskal-Wallis one-way ANOVA and multiple regression analysis have been utilized to test the hypotheses.

The results reveal that there is no significant difference in Modified Value Added Intellectual Coefficient (MVAIC) across five ASEAN countries; however, firms in each country tend to place a different degree of emphasis on components of MVAIC to generate corporate value. The results further indicate a positive relationship between IC and market value, confirming that firms with greater IC tend to have greater market value. Likewise, a positive relationship between IC and financial performance measures is confirmed. Specifically, IC is found to be positively associated with margin ratio and return on assets. Capital employed efficiency and human capital efficiency are found to be the most influential value drivers for both market value and financial performance while structural capital efficiency and relational capital efficiency possess less importance.

This study contributes to the IC literature by expanding our knowledge of IC in the emerging economies, and providing a national comparative IC research when such research is limited.

This study reveals the economic impact of the Indo-Pacific Strategy on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP).

This paper uses the GTAP model to analyze the economic effects of RCEP under the effect of the “Indo-Pacific Strategy” under different scenarios.

The results show that (1) with the improvement of the implementation effect of the US “Indo-Pacific Strategy,” the welfare level of China has gradually had a significant negative impact, while the welfare level of US Allies and partners has been further improved. (2) The implementation of the Indo-Pacific Strategy will further expand the import scale of Japan, South Korea and other Allies that are both RCEP members and the USA and slightly reduce the import scale of the European Union (EU) and other countries. (3) After the USA implemented the “Indo-Pacific Strategy,” its export scale has significantly improved, and it has been able to completely offset the adverse effects of the signing of RCEP on its exports. China's export scale has also gradually declined, and Japan has benefited the most.

There are three main possible contributions to this article: first, the authors combined geopolitical factors to simulate and evaluate the economic effects of RCEP under different Indo-Pacific Strategy implementation scenarios, which is more relevant than analyzing the economic effects of RCEP in a “vacuum.” Second, the standard static GTAP model can only measure the change of equilibrium state before and after the trade policy. At the same time, the dynamic GTAP model (GTAP-Dyn) introduces mechanisms such as capital flow and capital accumulation and treats time as a continuous variable affected by exogenous variables so that each variable has a time dimension so as better to simulate the medium- and long-term economic effects. This paper refers to the dynamic recursion method of Walmsley (2006) and Yang (2011) to update the base year of the GTAP version 10.0 database to 2020, that is the time when RCEP officially reached 2020. The simulation results of shock variables introduced into the baseline scenario are more reliable. Third, the authors analyze the welfare effect of RCEP and the impact on the import and export of relevant countries from the macrolevel and examine the impact on different products in different countries from the microlevel.