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Health risks associated with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have severely affected the financial stability of airline companies globally. Recapturing financial stability following this crisis depends heavily on these companies’ ability to attain efficient and productive operations. This study uses several empirical approaches to examine key factors contributing to carriers sustaining high productivity prior to, during and after a major recession. Findings suggest, regardless of economic conditions, that social distancing which requires airline companies in the Asia Pacific region to fly with a significant percentage of unfilled seats weakens the performance of those companies. Furthermore, efficient operations do not guarantee the avoidance of productivity declines, especially during a recession.

The global recession caused by the COVID-19 pandemic has led to the closure of thousands of village-owned enterprises (VOEs), which are community-managed enterprises that operate in the hostile rural areas in emerging economies. Thus, considering that a Schumpeterian view of economic downturn sees recessions as times where old products/services decline while new products/services emerge, this paper aims to explore the specific innovation-based diversification strategies that matter for the survival of emerging economy VOEs in recession periods to develop new theoretical insights.

The study is based on multiple-case studies of 13 leading VOEs operating in the rural areas of Java Island in Indonesia, an emerging economy. The data was analysed using within-case and cross-case analyses.

Overall, a number of major novel findings have emerged from the analysis, based on which the authors developed several new propositions. First, from the perspectives of both new product and new service diversification, “unrelated diversification” is the primary resilience strategy that seems to be associated with the survival of VOEs in the COVID-19 recession, over and above “related diversification”. Second, from an industrial sector diversification perspective, the most dominant resilient strategy for surviving the recession is “unrelated diversification into tertiary sectors (service sector)”, over and above diversification into the primary sector (agriculture, fisheries and mining) and secondary sector (manufacturing and construction).

The authors contribute to the literature on entrepreneurship in emerging economies by identifying the resilience diversification strategies that matter for the survival of VOEs in recession.

This study examined changes in work precarity (i.e., job insecurity and income insecurity) and involuntary job loss following the start of the Great Recession in 2007 among people with and without disabilities. Using five waves of nationally representative data from the Americans' Changing Lives (ACL) panel study, the findings demonstrated that people with disabilities who had early experiences of income insecurity were more likely to experience later income insecurity than people without disabilities. Those who had a functional disability and experienced job insecurity and income insecurity at W1, in 1986, were also significantly more likely to experience involuntary job loss following the start of the Great Recession. These findings highlight the disproportionate impact of early work precarity for people with disabilities and are discussed as an application of the life-course concept of cumulative disadvantage.

The purpose of the study is to investigate the correlation between credit supply to government and credit supply to the private sector to determine whether there is a crowding-out or crowding-in effect of credit supply to government on credit supply to the private sector.

The study used data from 43 countries during the 1980–2019 period. The study employed the Pearson correlation methodology to analyze the data.

There is a significant positive correlation between credit supply to government and credit supply to the private sector. There is also a significant positive relationship between credit supply to government and credit supply to the private sector, implying a crowding-in effect of government borrowing on private sector borrowing. The positive correlation between credit supply to government and credit supply to the private sector by banks is stronger and highly significant in the period before the Great Recession, while the positive correlation is weaker and less significant during the Great Recession, and the correlation further weakens after the Great Recession. The regional analyses show that the positive correlation between credit supply to government and credit supply to the private sector by banks is stronger and highly significant in the African region than in the Asian region and the region of the Americas.

There is no evidence on the correlation between credit supply to government and credit supply to the private sector during the Great Recession.

The purpose of this study was to assess real estate cycles and their impact on property values in Gaborone, Botswana. Investors and real estate professionals in Botswana rarely assess property cycles when purchasing property. This study therefore, aims to assess whether real estate cycles do exist, their duration and the type of real estate cycle that Botswana experiences.

Data was collected from primary and secondary sources. This included sourcing out information at the Deeds Registry Office in Gaborone on residential property sales and a questionnaire to 100 property investors. A record was made of properties that were sold for the period of 16 years starting from the year 2000 to 2016. Secondary data on the other hand was also collected from published and unpublished books, academic journals, professional journals, magazines, reports and monographs. A quantitative approach was used in this study. Data was analysed using Microsoft Excel and subsequently presented in form of tables and graphs.

The findings from the literature review revealed that there are four phases in the real estate cycles (recovery, expansion, oversupply and recession) and each has distinct features that an investor must be aware of to avoid consequences in the property market. The results from the data analysis revealed that real estate cycles do exist in Botswana as identified during the past 16 years. The cycle that Botswana experiences is called the kitchen cycle. It was also evident that Botswana experienced three cycles lasting five to six years each. Furthermore, it was discovered that all phases in the real estate cycles affect property values.

There is relatively little information about property cycles and their timing in Botswana. Therefore, this study may assist valuation surveyors to make promptly informed decisions on property investment through cycle assessment and hence positively inform the public and financial stakeholders. Society might find this beneficial in as far as decision-making is concerned when thinking of investing in real estate. The current system at the deeds office is cumbersome and time consuming, thus making it difficult for the researchers and possibly the public to analyse the property market. This study therefore, may encourage the Deeds Registry Office to computerize their records.

There is relatively little information about property cycles and their timing in Botswana. Therefore, this study may assist valuation surveyors to make promptly informed decisions on property investment through cycle assessment and hence positively inform the public and financial stakeholders.

Society might find this beneficial in as far as decision-making is concerned when thinking of investing in real estate.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this paper is the first of its kind in Botswana to extend the knowledge of real estate cycles and their impact on property cycles in Botswana.

Country crises can provoke damages to a country's economic activity and citizens in a way that will always demand a deeper understanding of their determinants. Political issues are commonly mentioned as an important factor boosting these crises. This paper investigates the political factors behind financial crises and recessions.

Using variables from the ICRG rating system, logistic panel regressions are run to determine whether or not the political risk variables explain country crises.

Results disclose the importance of socioeconomic conditions to financial crises and recessions with no influence from the political arena. Against expectations, political instability does not help to explain crises. Political risk ratings also show their importance, demonstrating that the higher is the risk, the higher is the probability of debt and currency crises occurrence.

The findings in this paper contribute to a growing literature of political risk and crises, enhancing the value of political risk assessment and increasing the application of its consequences.

This paper aims to examine Nigeria’s dynamic output and output volatility connectedness with USA, China and India using quarterly data from 1981Q1 to 2019Q4.

The study adopted the network approach of Diebold and Yilmaz (2014) and used the normalized generalized forecast error variance decomposition from an underlying vector error correction model to build connectedness measures.

The findings show that the global financial crisis (GFC) increased the connectedness index far more than the 2016 Nigeria economic recession. The moderate effect of the 2016 Nigeria economic recession on the connectedness index underscores the fact that Nigeria is a small, open economy with minimal capacity to spread output shock. For both real output and its volatility, the total connectedness index rose smoothly and systematically through time, thereby leaving the economies more connected in the long run.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this paper is among the first to examine Nigeria’s dynamic output and output volatility connectedness with the USA, China and India using new empirical insights from the GFC versus 2016 Nigerian recession. The study, therefore, concludes that the Nigerian economy should be diversified immediately as a hedge against future real output shocks, while the USA, China and India should maintain and sustain their current policy frameworks to remain less vulnerable to real output shocks.

This study is motivated in part by the fact that the unfolding 2022 bear market, which has reached the −25% drawdown, has not been preceded by the inverted 10Y-3 m spread or an inverted near-term forward spread.

The authors develop a three-factor probit model to predict/explain the deep stock market drawdowns, which the authors define as the drawdowns in excess of 20%.

The study results show that (1) the rising credit risk predicts a deep drawdown about a year in advance and (2) the monetary policy easing precedes an imminent drawdown below the 20% threshold.

This study three-factor probit model shows adaptability beyond the typical recessionary bear market and predicts/explains the liquidity-based selloffs, like the 2022 and possibly the 1987 deep drawdowns.

Research on the organizational ramifications of chief executive officer (CEO) greed remains scarce. This study intends to fill this gap by examining the impact of CEO greed on an important yet risky corporate strategy, corporate tax avoidance (CTA). Drawing on upper echelons theory, the authors argue that greedier CEOs tend to engage in more CTA. The relationship is weaker when CEOs experienced economic recessions in their early career and stronger when CEOs are endowed with equity ownership of their respective firms.

The authors test the hypotheses with data from US public firms from 1997 to 2008 and employ the ordinary least square regression analysis to analyze the hypothesized relationships. The authors also test the robustness of the results by performing the two-stage least square regression and propensity score matching analyses.

The findings lend broad support to all the hypotheses. The authors find that greedier CEOs tend to engage in more CTA by paying lower corporate taxes. The impact of greed on CTA is attenuated when CEOs are recession CEOs and is exacerbated when CEOs own large numbers of firm shares.

This paper contributes to the upper echelons research by investigating a novel executive personal characteristic, greed, and its negative impact on an important organizational outcome. This paper also contributes to the growing tax research that recognizes the important role executives play in shaping corporate tax strategies.

The purpose of this paper is to examine the degree of persistence in four precious metal prices (i.e. gold, palladium, platinum and silver) during the last four US recessions.

Using daily price data for gold, palladium, platinum and silver running from July 2, 1990, to March 21, 2022, and dating of business cycles in the USA provided by NBER (2022), the paper uses fractional integration to test the degree of persistence of precious metal prices.

The empirical analysis shows the unrelenting prominence of gold in relation to other precious metals (palladium, platinum and silver) as a hedge against market uncertainty in the post-pandemic new era.

Two are the main contributions of the paper. Firstly, the authors contribute to the commodity markets and finance literature on precious metal price modelling. Secondly, the authors also contribute to the literature on commodity markets and business cycles with a special focus on recessionary periods.