ForesightTable of Contents for Foresight. List of articles from the current issue, including Just Accepted (EarlyCite)https://www.emerald.com/insight/publication/issn/1463-6689/vol/26/iss/1?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestForesightEmerald Publishing LimitedForesightForesighthttps://www.emerald.com/insight/proxy/containerImg?link=/resource/publication/journal/4a436c564cf21ff91983ab79399fa185/urn:emeraldgroup.com:asset:id:binary:fs.cover.jpghttps://www.emerald.com/insight/publication/issn/1463-6689/vol/26/iss/1?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestDigital future beyond pandemic outbreak: systematic review of the impact of COVID-19 outbreak on digital psychologyhttps://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/FS-02-2021-0044/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestThe globe has experienced a devastating COVID-19 pandemic, putting the planet under lockdown and causing social alienation. The near collapse of social and economic activities is disrupting the supply chain. Customer-required products were in low supply across the world. A slew of new digital firms springs up to fill the need during this time. This study aims to reach a holistic goal by better understanding customers' digitalisation behaviour. The first step is to review existing consumer digital psychology research to map this study’s current knowledge of the pandemic's early and late phases and the impact of digital businesses on consumer behaviour. Finally, it provides lawmakers with a future agenda for limiting the digital psychology of consumers and enterprises. This study used the Scopus and Web of Science databases to extract records to follow the preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses statement. The final 57 papers were applied after the screening process. The digital environment, psychological digitalisation and behavioural changes were recognised as three primary classes based on a comprehensive examination of the previous literature. This study identified possible difficulties in earlier literature: the scarcity of collaborative and transdisciplinary research on digital psychology, which various academics have emphasised in the past. On the other hand, these investigations were primarily conducted in the psychological surroundings of technology users. According to this study, digital psychology has improved significantly during the pandemic and many new digital start-ups have arisen. This study also used digital research to create a framework for a pandemic strategic response plan to help minimise the current COVID-19 pandemic and prepare for future outbreaks. The study mapped existing literature on digital psychology alterations because of the novel COVID-19 outbreak.Digital future beyond pandemic outbreak: systematic review of the impact of COVID-19 outbreak on digital psychology
Mudassar Khan, Nohman Khan, Samina Begum, Muhammad Imran Qureshi
Foresight, Vol. 26, No. 1, pp.1-17

The globe has experienced a devastating COVID-19 pandemic, putting the planet under lockdown and causing social alienation. The near collapse of social and economic activities is disrupting the supply chain. Customer-required products were in low supply across the world. A slew of new digital firms springs up to fill the need during this time. This study aims to reach a holistic goal by better understanding customers' digitalisation behaviour. The first step is to review existing consumer digital psychology research to map this study’s current knowledge of the pandemic's early and late phases and the impact of digital businesses on consumer behaviour. Finally, it provides lawmakers with a future agenda for limiting the digital psychology of consumers and enterprises.

This study used the Scopus and Web of Science databases to extract records to follow the preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses statement. The final 57 papers were applied after the screening process. The digital environment, psychological digitalisation and behavioural changes were recognised as three primary classes based on a comprehensive examination of the previous literature. This study identified possible difficulties in earlier literature: the scarcity of collaborative and transdisciplinary research on digital psychology, which various academics have emphasised in the past. On the other hand, these investigations were primarily conducted in the psychological surroundings of technology users.

According to this study, digital psychology has improved significantly during the pandemic and many new digital start-ups have arisen. This study also used digital research to create a framework for a pandemic strategic response plan to help minimise the current COVID-19 pandemic and prepare for future outbreaks.

The study mapped existing literature on digital psychology alterations because of the novel COVID-19 outbreak.

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Digital future beyond pandemic outbreak: systematic review of the impact of COVID-19 outbreak on digital psychology10.1108/FS-02-2021-0044Foresight2023-03-16© 2023 Emerald Publishing LimitedMudassar KhanNohman KhanSamina BegumMuhammad Imran QureshiForesight2612023-03-1610.1108/FS-02-2021-0044https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/FS-02-2021-0044/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2023 Emerald Publishing Limited
Time to build a new practice of foresight for national economies? Ireland, and uncertain futures in forecasts and scenarioshttps://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/FS-10-2021-0191/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestThe literature on economic forecasting, is showing an increase in criticism, of the inaccuracy of forecasts, with major implications for economic, and fiscal policymaking. Forecasts are subject to the systemic uncertainty of human systems, considerable event-driven uncertainty, and show biases towards optimistic growth paths. The purpose of this study is to consider approaches to improve economic foresight. This study describes the practice of economic foresight as evolving in two separate, non-overlapping branches, short-term economic forecasting, and long-term scenario analysis of development, the latter found in studies of climate change and sustainability. The unique case of Ireland is considered, a country that has experienced both steep growth and deep troughs, with uncertainty that has confounded forecasting. The challenges facing forecasts are discussed, with brief review of the drivers of growth, and of long-term economic scenarios in the global literature. Economic forecasting seeks to manage uncertainty by improving the accuracy of quantitative point forecasts, and related models. Yet, systematic forecast failures remain, and the economy defies prediction, even in the near-term. In contrast, long-term scenario analysis eschews forecasts in favour of a set of plausible or possible alternative scenarios. Using alternative scenarios is a response to the irreducible uncertainty of complex systems, with sophisticated approaches employed to integrate qualitative and quantitative insights. To support economic and fiscal policymaking, it is necessary support advancement in approaches to economic foresight, to improve handling of uncertainty and related risk. While European Union Regulation (EC) 1466/97 mandates pursuit of improved accuracy, in short-term economic forecasts, there is now a case for implementing advanced foresight approaches, for improved analysis, and more robust decision-making. Building economic resilience and adaptability, as part of a sustainable future, requires both long-term strategic planning, and short-term policy. A 21st century policymaking process can be better supported by analysis of alternative scenarios. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, the article is original in considering the application of scenario foresight approaches, in economic forecasting. The study has value in improving the baseline forecast methods, that are fundamental to contemporary economics, and in bringing the field of economics into the heart of foresight.Time to build a new practice of foresight for national economies? Ireland, and uncertain futures in forecasts and scenarios
Tadhg O’Mahony, Jyrki Luukkanen, Jarmo Vehmas, Jari Roy Lee Kaivo-oja
Foresight, Vol. 26, No. 1, pp.18-34

The literature on economic forecasting, is showing an increase in criticism, of the inaccuracy of forecasts, with major implications for economic, and fiscal policymaking. Forecasts are subject to the systemic uncertainty of human systems, considerable event-driven uncertainty, and show biases towards optimistic growth paths. The purpose of this study is to consider approaches to improve economic foresight.

This study describes the practice of economic foresight as evolving in two separate, non-overlapping branches, short-term economic forecasting, and long-term scenario analysis of development, the latter found in studies of climate change and sustainability. The unique case of Ireland is considered, a country that has experienced both steep growth and deep troughs, with uncertainty that has confounded forecasting. The challenges facing forecasts are discussed, with brief review of the drivers of growth, and of long-term economic scenarios in the global literature.

Economic forecasting seeks to manage uncertainty by improving the accuracy of quantitative point forecasts, and related models. Yet, systematic forecast failures remain, and the economy defies prediction, even in the near-term. In contrast, long-term scenario analysis eschews forecasts in favour of a set of plausible or possible alternative scenarios. Using alternative scenarios is a response to the irreducible uncertainty of complex systems, with sophisticated approaches employed to integrate qualitative and quantitative insights.

To support economic and fiscal policymaking, it is necessary support advancement in approaches to economic foresight, to improve handling of uncertainty and related risk.

While European Union Regulation (EC) 1466/97 mandates pursuit of improved accuracy, in short-term economic forecasts, there is now a case for implementing advanced foresight approaches, for improved analysis, and more robust decision-making.

Building economic resilience and adaptability, as part of a sustainable future, requires both long-term strategic planning, and short-term policy. A 21st century policymaking process can be better supported by analysis of alternative scenarios.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, the article is original in considering the application of scenario foresight approaches, in economic forecasting. The study has value in improving the baseline forecast methods, that are fundamental to contemporary economics, and in bringing the field of economics into the heart of foresight.

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Time to build a new practice of foresight for national economies? Ireland, and uncertain futures in forecasts and scenarios10.1108/FS-10-2021-0191Foresight2023-06-05© 2023 Tadhg O’Mahony, Jyrki Luukkanen, Jarmo Vehmas and Jari Roy Lee Kaivo-oja.Tadhg O’MahonyJyrki LuukkanenJarmo VehmasJari Roy Lee Kaivo-ojaForesight2612023-06-0510.1108/FS-10-2021-0191https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/FS-10-2021-0191/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2023 Tadhg O’Mahony, Jyrki Luukkanen, Jarmo Vehmas and Jari Roy Lee Kaivo-oja.http://creativecommons.org/licences/by/4.0/legalcode
Green human resource management and environmental performance: mediating role of green innovation – a study from an emerging countryhttps://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/FS-04-2021-0094/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestThis study sought to determine the role of green human resource management (GHRM) in fostering employees' environmental performance (ENVP). This study aims to advance knowledge related to the role of firms’ GHRM activities in cultivating eco-responsible behaviors among employees, considering green innovation (GI) as a mediator. For this study, data of 579 respondents were collected from employees working in the manufacturing industry in India. In all, 579 employees from the manufacturing sector in India participated in the study. The proposed model was tested using SMART PLS 3.3. The findings of this study stated that GHRM was found significantly to predict ENVP in the Indian manufacturing industry, and GI exhibited partial mediation. This study emphasizes that GHRM activities carried out by firms encourage employees to engage in innovation to develop green products and find novel green operation processes to improve firms’ ENVP. As this study is limited to manufacturing organizations in India, the results of this study cannot be generalized; future studies may examine the proposed model in different contexts to generalize findings. This study encourages policymakers to devise laws to enable organizations to implement GHRM practices. This study contributes to the existing literature on the environmental aspects of corporate social responsibility and environmental management. This study is one of the few attempts that seek to assess the relationship between GHRM, ENVP and GI in the Indian manufacturing industry. The contribution of this paper is significant to limit GHRM literature, as it empirically investigates the association between GHRM and ENVP.Green human resource management and environmental performance: mediating role of green innovation – a study from an emerging country
Geeta Rana, Vikas Arya
Foresight, Vol. 26, No. 1, pp.35-58

This study sought to determine the role of green human resource management (GHRM) in fostering employees' environmental performance (ENVP). This study aims to advance knowledge related to the role of firms’ GHRM activities in cultivating eco-responsible behaviors among employees, considering green innovation (GI) as a mediator.

For this study, data of 579 respondents were collected from employees working in the manufacturing industry in India. In all, 579 employees from the manufacturing sector in India participated in the study. The proposed model was tested using SMART PLS 3.3.

The findings of this study stated that GHRM was found significantly to predict ENVP in the Indian manufacturing industry, and GI exhibited partial mediation. This study emphasizes that GHRM activities carried out by firms encourage employees to engage in innovation to develop green products and find novel green operation processes to improve firms’ ENVP.

As this study is limited to manufacturing organizations in India, the results of this study cannot be generalized; future studies may examine the proposed model in different contexts to generalize findings.

This study encourages policymakers to devise laws to enable organizations to implement GHRM practices. This study contributes to the existing literature on the environmental aspects of corporate social responsibility and environmental management. This study is one of the few attempts that seek to assess the relationship between GHRM, ENVP and GI in the Indian manufacturing industry. The contribution of this paper is significant to limit GHRM literature, as it empirically investigates the association between GHRM and ENVP.

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Green human resource management and environmental performance: mediating role of green innovation – a study from an emerging country10.1108/FS-04-2021-0094Foresight2023-07-14© 2023 Emerald Publishing LimitedGeeta RanaVikas AryaForesight2612023-07-1410.1108/FS-04-2021-0094https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/FS-04-2021-0094/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2023 Emerald Publishing Limited
Colonization of urban futures in the Global South: lessons from the case of Isfahan 2040https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/FS-01-2023-0004/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestDue to the limitations of conventional urban planning, it is essential to develop novel techniques of urban futruing. This paper aimed to use the scenario technique to create four plausible narratives of the future of Isfahan. Also, the authors described the problems of city foresight in the Global South. This paper chronicles the Schwartzian steps taken to build explorative scenarios of Isfahan City in Iran in 2040. After using a STEEPV (Social, Technological, Environmental, Economic, Political, Value) analysis, the authors prioritized the collected variables by combining influence diagrams, the iceberg metaphor and an expert-based survey. Once the key uncertainties were derived, four scenarios were developed and discussed. Through thematic analysis of the official visions of Isfahan’s future and the juxtaposition of these narratives with insight yielded in the scenario-development process, the paper concludes that the Northernness of the prevailing urban imaginaries, uncritical mimetic benchmarking, depoliticization of urban futures and the decorative reductionistic visions colonize urban futures in Isfahan/Iran. Critical/deconstructive city foresight and application of discomfort/ignorance criteria in the generation of scenarios can improve the rigor and quality of city foresight in the Global South. The application of city foresight in the Global South has been limited. The paper is a step toward bridging this gap and providing some recommendations on how city foresight in the Global South might differ from its counterparts in the Global North.Colonization of urban futures in the Global South: lessons from the case of Isfahan 2040
Ali Zackery, Mohsen Taheri Demneh, Maryam Ebadi Nejad
Foresight, Vol. 26, No. 1, pp.59-83

Due to the limitations of conventional urban planning, it is essential to develop novel techniques of urban futruing. This paper aimed to use the scenario technique to create four plausible narratives of the future of Isfahan. Also, the authors described the problems of city foresight in the Global South.

This paper chronicles the Schwartzian steps taken to build explorative scenarios of Isfahan City in Iran in 2040. After using a STEEPV (Social, Technological, Environmental, Economic, Political, Value) analysis, the authors prioritized the collected variables by combining influence diagrams, the iceberg metaphor and an expert-based survey. Once the key uncertainties were derived, four scenarios were developed and discussed.

Through thematic analysis of the official visions of Isfahan’s future and the juxtaposition of these narratives with insight yielded in the scenario-development process, the paper concludes that the Northernness of the prevailing urban imaginaries, uncritical mimetic benchmarking, depoliticization of urban futures and the decorative reductionistic visions colonize urban futures in Isfahan/Iran. Critical/deconstructive city foresight and application of discomfort/ignorance criteria in the generation of scenarios can improve the rigor and quality of city foresight in the Global South.

The application of city foresight in the Global South has been limited. The paper is a step toward bridging this gap and providing some recommendations on how city foresight in the Global South might differ from its counterparts in the Global North.

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Colonization of urban futures in the Global South: lessons from the case of Isfahan 204010.1108/FS-01-2023-0004Foresight2023-07-13© 2023 Emerald Publishing LimitedAli ZackeryMohsen Taheri DemnehMaryam Ebadi NejadForesight2612023-07-1310.1108/FS-01-2023-0004https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/FS-01-2023-0004/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2023 Emerald Publishing Limited
Persistence and volatility spillovers of Bitcoin to other leading cryptocurrencies: a BEKK-GARCH analysishttps://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/FS-09-2022-0100/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestThis paper aims to investigate the effects of volatility transmission among Bitcoin and other leading cryptocurrencies, namely, Binance USD, BNB, Cardano, Dogecoin, Ethereum, Polkadot, Polygon, Solana, Tether, USD Coin and XRP. The multivariate BEKK-GARCH model is used with the daily data set from 1 January 2017 to 31 March 2023. The data set is analysed in its entirety and is also the COVID-19 epidemic period. The study reveals that while the volatility of cryptocurrency prices is influenced by their own historical shocks and volatility, there is proof of the effects shock transmission among Bitcoin and other notable cryptocurrencies. Furthermore, the authors identify the spillover effects of volatility among all 11 pairs and provide evidence that conditional correlations with varying time constants are present, and predominantly positive for both the entire and COVID-19 outbreak periods. The findings will be helpful to market experts who want to avoid losses in traditional assets. To develop the best risk management and hedging strategies, businesses might use the information to build asset portfolios or personalise payment methods. The use of such data by investors and portfolio managers could aid in the development of investment opportunities, risk insurance plans or hedging strategies for the management of financial portfolios. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, the use of the BEKK-GARCH model for examining the effects of volatility spillover among Bitcoin and the other eleven top cryptocurrencies has not been previously documented.Persistence and volatility spillovers of Bitcoin to other leading cryptocurrencies: a BEKK-GARCH analysis
Parichat Sinlapates, Surachai Chancharat
Foresight, Vol. 26, No. 1, pp.84-97

This paper aims to investigate the effects of volatility transmission among Bitcoin and other leading cryptocurrencies, namely, Binance USD, BNB, Cardano, Dogecoin, Ethereum, Polkadot, Polygon, Solana, Tether, USD Coin and XRP.

The multivariate BEKK-GARCH model is used with the daily data set from 1 January 2017 to 31 March 2023. The data set is analysed in its entirety and is also the COVID-19 epidemic period.

The study reveals that while the volatility of cryptocurrency prices is influenced by their own historical shocks and volatility, there is proof of the effects shock transmission among Bitcoin and other notable cryptocurrencies. Furthermore, the authors identify the spillover effects of volatility among all 11 pairs and provide evidence that conditional correlations with varying time constants are present, and predominantly positive for both the entire and COVID-19 outbreak periods.

The findings will be helpful to market experts who want to avoid losses in traditional assets. To develop the best risk management and hedging strategies, businesses might use the information to build asset portfolios or personalise payment methods. The use of such data by investors and portfolio managers could aid in the development of investment opportunities, risk insurance plans or hedging strategies for the management of financial portfolios.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, the use of the BEKK-GARCH model for examining the effects of volatility spillover among Bitcoin and the other eleven top cryptocurrencies has not been previously documented.

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Persistence and volatility spillovers of Bitcoin to other leading cryptocurrencies: a BEKK-GARCH analysis10.1108/FS-09-2022-0100Foresight2023-07-18© 2023 Emerald Publishing LimitedParichat SinlapatesSurachai ChancharatForesight2612023-07-1810.1108/FS-09-2022-0100https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/FS-09-2022-0100/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2023 Emerald Publishing Limited
What resists millennials to adopt hotel booking apps? An empirical analysis based on extended innovation resistance theoryhttps://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/FS-10-2021-0209/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestThis study aims to examine the factors determining the discontinuance intentions of millennials to use hotel booking apps. A quantitative technique was followed to collect the data from the tourists, and partial least square structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) technique was adopted to validate the proposed model. Significant predictors of discontinuance intentions of hotel booking apps are usage barrier, values barrier, risk barrier, lack of facilitating conditions and digital self-efficacy. The results of this study provide useful insights for tourism stakeholders and app developers to understand in real terms the setbacks that might be a hindrance to the users of such apps for hotel booking. Despite the increasing focus of scholars toward understanding the determinants of technology adoption, the present study has extended innovation resistance theory with three novel constructs: social dependency, lack of facilitating conditions and digital self-efficacy.What resists millennials to adopt hotel booking apps? An empirical analysis based on extended innovation resistance theory
Sachin Kumar, Neeraj Dhiman, Honey Kanojia, Richa Joshi
Foresight, Vol. 26, No. 1, pp.98-113

This study aims to examine the factors determining the discontinuance intentions of millennials to use hotel booking apps.

A quantitative technique was followed to collect the data from the tourists, and partial least square structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) technique was adopted to validate the proposed model.

Significant predictors of discontinuance intentions of hotel booking apps are usage barrier, values barrier, risk barrier, lack of facilitating conditions and digital self-efficacy.

The results of this study provide useful insights for tourism stakeholders and app developers to understand in real terms the setbacks that might be a hindrance to the users of such apps for hotel booking.

Despite the increasing focus of scholars toward understanding the determinants of technology adoption, the present study has extended innovation resistance theory with three novel constructs: social dependency, lack of facilitating conditions and digital self-efficacy.

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What resists millennials to adopt hotel booking apps? An empirical analysis based on extended innovation resistance theory10.1108/FS-10-2021-0209Foresight2023-08-22© 2023 Emerald Publishing LimitedSachin KumarNeeraj DhimanHoney KanojiaRicha JoshiForesight2612023-08-2210.1108/FS-10-2021-0209https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/FS-10-2021-0209/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2023 Emerald Publishing Limited
What drives social co-creation in tourism? An empirical studyhttps://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/FS-01-2023-0015/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestAs competition in the industry intensifies, companies must use market-oriented approaches to gain competitive superiority; one of the approaches that can lead to the success of companies in the competitive market is to undertake social co-creation with the help of customers. Although the use of social media for the development of social interactions has expanded, very little attention has been paid to how the concept of social co-creation is formed on social media by users. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the effect of personality traits and website quality on social co-creation, with the mediating role of trust in tourism websites. This research, in terms of purpose, is practical, and in terms of information collection, it is a descriptive survey. The research statistical population is all users of active tourism sites in Iran. The sampling method is non-probability and available sampling. The questionnaire was designed based on the Likert scale and was distributed electronically among the statistical sample. After collecting and reviewing the questionnaires, 203 were used for analysis. The data analysis method in this study is hierarchical multiple regression. The results indicated that personality traits and website quality are correlated with trust and social co-creation. The dimensions of website quality, including quality of information, quality of system and quality of service on tourism websites, have considerable and positive effects on trust. Also, all dimensions of the personality traits, except extraversion and neuroticism, have a considerable and positive effect on trust. Moreover, the correlation between trust and social co-creation is positive. According to the review of the digital marketing literature, some researchers examined the influential factors in co-creation, but there is little research about how the interaction of these three concepts (personality traits, website quality and trust) enhances co-creation. This study contributes to the existing literature with empirical evidence of how personality traits and website quality influence co-creation by mediating the role of trust.What drives social co-creation in tourism? An empirical study
Ghazale Taheri, Fatemeh Mohammadi, Mona Jami Pour
Foresight, Vol. 26, No. 1, pp.114-135

As competition in the industry intensifies, companies must use market-oriented approaches to gain competitive superiority; one of the approaches that can lead to the success of companies in the competitive market is to undertake social co-creation with the help of customers. Although the use of social media for the development of social interactions has expanded, very little attention has been paid to how the concept of social co-creation is formed on social media by users. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the effect of personality traits and website quality on social co-creation, with the mediating role of trust in tourism websites.

This research, in terms of purpose, is practical, and in terms of information collection, it is a descriptive survey. The research statistical population is all users of active tourism sites in Iran. The sampling method is non-probability and available sampling. The questionnaire was designed based on the Likert scale and was distributed electronically among the statistical sample. After collecting and reviewing the questionnaires, 203 were used for analysis. The data analysis method in this study is hierarchical multiple regression.

The results indicated that personality traits and website quality are correlated with trust and social co-creation. The dimensions of website quality, including quality of information, quality of system and quality of service on tourism websites, have considerable and positive effects on trust. Also, all dimensions of the personality traits, except extraversion and neuroticism, have a considerable and positive effect on trust. Moreover, the correlation between trust and social co-creation is positive.

According to the review of the digital marketing literature, some researchers examined the influential factors in co-creation, but there is little research about how the interaction of these three concepts (personality traits, website quality and trust) enhances co-creation. This study contributes to the existing literature with empirical evidence of how personality traits and website quality influence co-creation by mediating the role of trust.

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What drives social co-creation in tourism? An empirical study10.1108/FS-01-2023-0015Foresight2023-08-30© 2023 Emerald Publishing LimitedGhazale TaheriFatemeh MohammadiMona Jami PourForesight2612023-08-3010.1108/FS-01-2023-0015https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/FS-01-2023-0015/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2023 Emerald Publishing Limited
Linking technology readiness and customer engagement: an AI-enabled voice assistants investigationhttps://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/FS-10-2021-0195/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestThis paper aims to establish and empirically investigate a research model examining the effect of four dimensions of the technology readiness index – optimism, innovativeness, discomfort and insecurity – on customer engagement that further influences purchase intention in the context of online shopping through artificial intelligence voice assistants (AI VAs). Data were collected in India from 429 customers in a self-administered online survey. Data analysis uses the structural equation modelling technique. Technology readiness dimensions, e.g. optimism, innovativeness, discomfort and insecurity, are critical factors driving customer engagement. Customer engagement further results in purchase intention in online shopping through AI VAs. This study adds to the literature by understanding how customers’ technology readiness levels drive engagement and purchase intention. However, this study includes customer engagement as a unidimensional construct. Further research can consist of customer engagement as a multidimensional construct. The findings offer guidelines for e-retailers to enhance customer engagement that matches their personality traits, thereby strengthening their purchase intention through AI VAs. The research contributes to the literature by empirically investigating a research model, revealing optimism, innovativeness, discomfort and insecurity as crucial parameters for customer engagement and purchase intention.Linking technology readiness and customer engagement: an AI-enabled voice assistants investigation
Tejas R. Shah, Pradeep Kautish, Sandeep Walia
Foresight, Vol. 26, No. 1, pp.136-154

This paper aims to establish and empirically investigate a research model examining the effect of four dimensions of the technology readiness index – optimism, innovativeness, discomfort and insecurity – on customer engagement that further influences purchase intention in the context of online shopping through artificial intelligence voice assistants (AI VAs).

Data were collected in India from 429 customers in a self-administered online survey. Data analysis uses the structural equation modelling technique.

Technology readiness dimensions, e.g. optimism, innovativeness, discomfort and insecurity, are critical factors driving customer engagement. Customer engagement further results in purchase intention in online shopping through AI VAs.

This study adds to the literature by understanding how customers’ technology readiness levels drive engagement and purchase intention. However, this study includes customer engagement as a unidimensional construct. Further research can consist of customer engagement as a multidimensional construct.

The findings offer guidelines for e-retailers to enhance customer engagement that matches their personality traits, thereby strengthening their purchase intention through AI VAs.

The research contributes to the literature by empirically investigating a research model, revealing optimism, innovativeness, discomfort and insecurity as crucial parameters for customer engagement and purchase intention.

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Linking technology readiness and customer engagement: an AI-enabled voice assistants investigation10.1108/FS-10-2021-0195Foresight2023-09-12© 2023 Emerald Publishing LimitedTejas R. ShahPradeep KautishSandeep WaliaForesight2612023-09-1210.1108/FS-10-2021-0195https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/FS-10-2021-0195/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2023 Emerald Publishing Limited
Identifying emerging trends and hot topics through intelligent data mining: the case of clinical psychology and psychotherapyhttps://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/FS-02-2023-0026/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestThe purpose of the paper is to present an integrated methodology for identifying trends in a particular subject area based on a combination of advanced text mining and expert methods. The authors aim to test it in an area of clinical psychology and psychotherapy in 2010–2019. The authors demonstrate the way of applying text-mining and the Word2Vec model to identify hot topics (HT) and emerging trends (ET) in clinical psychology and psychotherapy. The analysis of 11.3 million scientific publications in the Microsoft Academic Graph database revealed the most rapidly growing clinical psychology and psychotherapy terms – those with the largest increase in the number of publications reflecting real or potential trends. The proposed approach allows one to identify HT and ET for the six thematic clusters related to mental disorders, symptoms, pharmacology, psychotherapy, treatment techniques and important psychological skills. The developed methodology allows one to see the broad picture of the most dynamic research areas in the field of clinical psychology and psychotherapy in 2010–2019. For clinicians, who are often overwhelmed by practical work, this map of the current research can help identify the areas worthy of further attention to improve the effectiveness of their clinical work. This methodology might be applied for the identification of trends in any other subject area by taking into account its specificity. The paper demonstrates the value of the advanced text-mining approach for understanding trends in a subject area. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, for the first time, text-mining and the Word2Vec model have been applied to identifying trends in the field of clinical psychology and psychotherapy.Identifying emerging trends and hot topics through intelligent data mining: the case of clinical psychology and psychotherapy
Anna Sokolova, Polina Lobanova, Ilya Kuzminov
Foresight, Vol. 26, No. 1, pp.155-180

The purpose of the paper is to present an integrated methodology for identifying trends in a particular subject area based on a combination of advanced text mining and expert methods. The authors aim to test it in an area of clinical psychology and psychotherapy in 2010–2019.

The authors demonstrate the way of applying text-mining and the Word2Vec model to identify hot topics (HT) and emerging trends (ET) in clinical psychology and psychotherapy. The analysis of 11.3 million scientific publications in the Microsoft Academic Graph database revealed the most rapidly growing clinical psychology and psychotherapy terms – those with the largest increase in the number of publications reflecting real or potential trends.

The proposed approach allows one to identify HT and ET for the six thematic clusters related to mental disorders, symptoms, pharmacology, psychotherapy, treatment techniques and important psychological skills.

The developed methodology allows one to see the broad picture of the most dynamic research areas in the field of clinical psychology and psychotherapy in 2010–2019. For clinicians, who are often overwhelmed by practical work, this map of the current research can help identify the areas worthy of further attention to improve the effectiveness of their clinical work. This methodology might be applied for the identification of trends in any other subject area by taking into account its specificity.

The paper demonstrates the value of the advanced text-mining approach for understanding trends in a subject area. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, for the first time, text-mining and the Word2Vec model have been applied to identifying trends in the field of clinical psychology and psychotherapy.

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Identifying emerging trends and hot topics through intelligent data mining: the case of clinical psychology and psychotherapy10.1108/FS-02-2023-0026Foresight2023-10-03© 2023 Emerald Publishing LimitedAnna SokolovaPolina LobanovaIlya KuzminovForesight2612023-10-0310.1108/FS-02-2023-0026https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/FS-02-2023-0026/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2023 Emerald Publishing Limited
Exploring the benefits of applying indigenous knowledge (IK) into foresight processhttps://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/FS-10-2022-0134/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestIndigenous knowledge is an essential element for unveiling the evolutionary journey of socio-culture phenomena. One of the key challenges in foresight exercises is to incorporate social-culture issues such as culture, lifestyle and behavior (referred as indigenous knowledge) into the study. However, the statistical trends of those factors tend to be either not available or limited unlike the population or economic related factors. The purpose of this study is to present the use of valuable data from indigenous knowledge to enhance the foresight exercise through the better understanding of social dynamics and changes. The fragmented form of indigenous knowledge is analyzed and converted into a structured data format and then interpreted to unveil the evolutionary journey of socio-cultural phenomena. This study applies a scenario development method to visualize the results of foresight by comparing before and after the integration of indigenous knowledge. Finally, an assessment was conducted to reflect the value enhancement resulting from the integration of indigenous knowledge into the foresight process. With the proposed approach, the foresight study on the future development of Thai food was demonstrated. The findings of this study show that the use of indigenous knowledge on eating behavior, cooking style and food flavor helps improve the alternative scenarios for the future development of Thai foods. Indigenous knowledge can be applied to develop plausible scenarios and future images in foresight exercises. However, by nature, indigenous knowledge is not well-structured and, therefore, needs to be analyzed and turned into structured data so that it can be interpreted before integrating into the foresight process. This study is one of few studies addressing the opportunities for integrating indigenous knowledge into foresight process. Indigenous knowledge can unveil the evolution of socio-cultural changes to improve the results of foresight study, especially the cases where statistical data and trends may not be sufficient to foresee future development.Exploring the benefits of applying indigenous knowledge (IK) into foresight process
Thirawut Phichonsatcha, Nathasit Gerdsri, Duanghathai Pentrakoon, Akkharawit Kanjana-Opas
Foresight, Vol. 26, No. 1, pp.181-202

Indigenous knowledge is an essential element for unveiling the evolutionary journey of socio-culture phenomena. One of the key challenges in foresight exercises is to incorporate social-culture issues such as culture, lifestyle and behavior (referred as indigenous knowledge) into the study. However, the statistical trends of those factors tend to be either not available or limited unlike the population or economic related factors. The purpose of this study is to present the use of valuable data from indigenous knowledge to enhance the foresight exercise through the better understanding of social dynamics and changes.

The fragmented form of indigenous knowledge is analyzed and converted into a structured data format and then interpreted to unveil the evolutionary journey of socio-cultural phenomena. This study applies a scenario development method to visualize the results of foresight by comparing before and after the integration of indigenous knowledge. Finally, an assessment was conducted to reflect the value enhancement resulting from the integration of indigenous knowledge into the foresight process.

With the proposed approach, the foresight study on the future development of Thai food was demonstrated. The findings of this study show that the use of indigenous knowledge on eating behavior, cooking style and food flavor helps improve the alternative scenarios for the future development of Thai foods.

Indigenous knowledge can be applied to develop plausible scenarios and future images in foresight exercises. However, by nature, indigenous knowledge is not well-structured and, therefore, needs to be analyzed and turned into structured data so that it can be interpreted before integrating into the foresight process.

This study is one of few studies addressing the opportunities for integrating indigenous knowledge into foresight process. Indigenous knowledge can unveil the evolution of socio-cultural changes to improve the results of foresight study, especially the cases where statistical data and trends may not be sufficient to foresee future development.

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Exploring the benefits of applying indigenous knowledge (IK) into foresight process10.1108/FS-10-2022-0134Foresight2023-11-29© 2023 Emerald Publishing LimitedThirawut PhichonsatchaNathasit GerdsriDuanghathai PentrakoonAkkharawit Kanjana-OpasForesight2612023-11-2910.1108/FS-10-2022-0134https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/FS-10-2022-0134/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2023 Emerald Publishing Limited
How foresight has evolved since 1999? Understanding its themes, scope and focushttps://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/FS-01-2023-0001/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestForesight J's journey started in 1999, and in 2022, it marked the conclusion of its 24 years of publication. This paper aims to provide an overall overview of important research trends published in Foresight J between 1999 and 2022 by conducting a quantitative analysis of the journal’s literature. The overarching goal is to provide valuable insights into the dynamics of scholarly communication, aiding researchers, institutions and policymakers in assessing the significance and influence of academic work, guiding future research directions and academic evaluation. The two bibliometrics methodologies that make up the methodology of this article are scientific mapping and performance analysis. Authors have explained the development and composition of the Foresight J using these methods. The SCOPUS database is being used in current research to analyse several dimensions, such as the evolution of publications by year, the most cited papers, core authors and researchers, leading countries and prolific institutions. Moreover, the conceptual structure, scope, burst detection and co-occurrence analysis of the journal are mapped using network visualization software such as VOSviewer, CiteSpace and RStudio. With a strong track record of output over the years, Foresight J has continued to develop in terms of publications. It is determined that “Saritas” is the author with the greatest overall impact. However, according to SCOPUS bibliometric data, “Blackman” and “Richardson” are the authors with the greatest relevance in terms of the quantity of articles. In addition, it becomes apparent that the USA, Australia and the UK are very productive nations in terms of publications. The most popular fields of the journal have always been forecasting, foresight, scenario planning, strategic planning, decision-making, technology and sustainable development. These are also the author keywords that appear the most frequently. In contrast, new study themes in the Foresight J include digital technologies, innovation, sustainability, blockchain, artificial intelligence and sustainability. Several noteworthy research implications are provided by the bibliometric study of Foresight J. “Saritas” is the author with the most overall impact, indicating that the precise contributions and influence of this researcher in the fields of forecasting, foresight and related fields. Given that “Blackman” and “Richardson” are well-known writers, it is also critical to examine the scope and complexity of their contributions to potentially identify recurring themes or patterns in their writing. The geographic productivity results, which show that the USA, Australia and the UK are the top three countries for Foresight J publications, may encourage more research into regional differences, patterns of collaboration and the worldwide distribution of research endeavours in the context of forecasting and foresight. Popular fields including scenario planning, forecasting, foresight and sustainable development are consistent, indicating persistent research interests. Examining the causes of these subjects’ ongoing relevance can reveal information about the consistency and development of scholarly interests over time. Foresight J’s bibliometric analysis has real-world applications for many stakeholders. It helps editors and publishers make strategic decisions about outreach and content by providing insights regarding the journal’s influence. Assessing organizational and author productivity helps institutions allocate resources more effectively. Policymakers acquire an instrument to evaluate research patterns and distribute funds efficiently. In general, bibliometric study of a journal helps decisionmakers in academic publishing make well-informed choices that maximize the potential of options for authors, editors, institutions and policymakers. The societal ramifications of bibliometrically analysing Foresight J from 1999 and 2022 are substantial. This analysis highlights, over the past 24 years, research trends, technological developments and societal priorities have changed by methodically looking through the journal’s articles. Gaining knowledge about the academic environment covered by the journal can help raise public awareness of important topics and promote critical thinking. In addition, the analysis can support evidence-based decision-making by alerting decision makers to the influential research that was published in Foresight J. This could have an impact on the course of policies pertaining to innovation, technology and societal development. This study presents a first comprehensive article that provides a general overview of the main trends and patterns of the research over the Foresight J’s history since its inception. Also, the paper will help the scientific community to know the value and impact of Foresight J.How foresight has evolved since 1999? Understanding its themes, scope and focus
Vaishali Dhiman, Manpreet Arora
Foresight, Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print, pp.-

Foresight J's journey started in 1999, and in 2022, it marked the conclusion of its 24 years of publication. This paper aims to provide an overall overview of important research trends published in Foresight J between 1999 and 2022 by conducting a quantitative analysis of the journal’s literature. The overarching goal is to provide valuable insights into the dynamics of scholarly communication, aiding researchers, institutions and policymakers in assessing the significance and influence of academic work, guiding future research directions and academic evaluation.

The two bibliometrics methodologies that make up the methodology of this article are scientific mapping and performance analysis. Authors have explained the development and composition of the Foresight J using these methods. The SCOPUS database is being used in current research to analyse several dimensions, such as the evolution of publications by year, the most cited papers, core authors and researchers, leading countries and prolific institutions. Moreover, the conceptual structure, scope, burst detection and co-occurrence analysis of the journal are mapped using network visualization software such as VOSviewer, CiteSpace and RStudio.

With a strong track record of output over the years, Foresight J has continued to develop in terms of publications. It is determined that “Saritas” is the author with the greatest overall impact. However, according to SCOPUS bibliometric data, “Blackman” and “Richardson” are the authors with the greatest relevance in terms of the quantity of articles. In addition, it becomes apparent that the USA, Australia and the UK are very productive nations in terms of publications. The most popular fields of the journal have always been forecasting, foresight, scenario planning, strategic planning, decision-making, technology and sustainable development. These are also the author keywords that appear the most frequently. In contrast, new study themes in the Foresight J include digital technologies, innovation, sustainability, blockchain, artificial intelligence and sustainability.

Several noteworthy research implications are provided by the bibliometric study of Foresight J. “Saritas” is the author with the most overall impact, indicating that the precise contributions and influence of this researcher in the fields of forecasting, foresight and related fields. Given that “Blackman” and “Richardson” are well-known writers, it is also critical to examine the scope and complexity of their contributions to potentially identify recurring themes or patterns in their writing. The geographic productivity results, which show that the USA, Australia and the UK are the top three countries for Foresight J publications, may encourage more research into regional differences, patterns of collaboration and the worldwide distribution of research endeavours in the context of forecasting and foresight. Popular fields including scenario planning, forecasting, foresight and sustainable development are consistent, indicating persistent research interests. Examining the causes of these subjects’ ongoing relevance can reveal information about the consistency and development of scholarly interests over time.

Foresight J’s bibliometric analysis has real-world applications for many stakeholders. It helps editors and publishers make strategic decisions about outreach and content by providing insights regarding the journal’s influence. Assessing organizational and author productivity helps institutions allocate resources more effectively. Policymakers acquire an instrument to evaluate research patterns and distribute funds efficiently. In general, bibliometric study of a journal helps decisionmakers in academic publishing make well-informed choices that maximize the potential of options for authors, editors, institutions and policymakers.

The societal ramifications of bibliometrically analysing Foresight J from 1999 and 2022 are substantial. This analysis highlights, over the past 24 years, research trends, technological developments and societal priorities have changed by methodically looking through the journal’s articles. Gaining knowledge about the academic environment covered by the journal can help raise public awareness of important topics and promote critical thinking. In addition, the analysis can support evidence-based decision-making by alerting decision makers to the influential research that was published in Foresight J. This could have an impact on the course of policies pertaining to innovation, technology and societal development.

This study presents a first comprehensive article that provides a general overview of the main trends and patterns of the research over the Foresight J’s history since its inception. Also, the paper will help the scientific community to know the value and impact of Foresight J.

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How foresight has evolved since 1999? Understanding its themes, scope and focus10.1108/FS-01-2023-0001Foresight2023-12-28© 2023 Emerald Publishing LimitedVaishali DhimanManpreet AroraForesightahead-of-printahead-of-print2023-12-2810.1108/FS-01-2023-0001https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/FS-01-2023-0001/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2023 Emerald Publishing Limited
Driving forces behind service innovation in knowledge-intensive services with different knowledge baseshttps://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/FS-01-2023-0017/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestThe purpose of this paper is to identify and describe the influence of the knowledge base (KB) of the company on driving forces of innovation processes in knowledge-intensive services (KIS) and to compare the level of innovativeness of the final services. The paper investigates through qualitative research 11 KIS organisations with different KB. The research results identified and described the influence of the KB on driving forces of innovations processes and its results in companies with four newly identified KBs (analytical, synthetic, symbolic and compliance). Further research, based on a larger number of companies, is needed to confirm the results of this research and to complement the effect of the KB on driving forces of innovation. This research can help organisations understand how to develop strategic plans and new ideas for innovative services depending on the KB of the organisation. The description of successful innovation processes and results in several leading companies presented in the study may help other companies in identifying knowledge-integration practices to improve performance and innovation processes that support multiplicity, productivity and creativity. The study systemised the sources of new ideas for innovation in companies with different KB, several driving forces of innovation were identified and how these forces are affected by each KB; lastly, innovation results were compared in companies with different KB.Driving forces behind service innovation in knowledge-intensive services with different knowledge bases
Anastasia Krupskaya
Foresight, Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print, pp.-

The purpose of this paper is to identify and describe the influence of the knowledge base (KB) of the company on driving forces of innovation processes in knowledge-intensive services (KIS) and to compare the level of innovativeness of the final services.

The paper investigates through qualitative research 11 KIS organisations with different KB.

The research results identified and described the influence of the KB on driving forces of innovations processes and its results in companies with four newly identified KBs (analytical, synthetic, symbolic and compliance).

Further research, based on a larger number of companies, is needed to confirm the results of this research and to complement the effect of the KB on driving forces of innovation.

This research can help organisations understand how to develop strategic plans and new ideas for innovative services depending on the KB of the organisation.

The description of successful innovation processes and results in several leading companies presented in the study may help other companies in identifying knowledge-integration practices to improve performance and innovation processes that support multiplicity, productivity and creativity.

The study systemised the sources of new ideas for innovation in companies with different KB, several driving forces of innovation were identified and how these forces are affected by each KB; lastly, innovation results were compared in companies with different KB.

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Driving forces behind service innovation in knowledge-intensive services with different knowledge bases10.1108/FS-01-2023-0017Foresight2024-01-17© 2024 Anastasia Krupskaya.Anastasia KrupskayaForesightahead-of-printahead-of-print2024-01-1710.1108/FS-01-2023-0017https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/FS-01-2023-0017/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2024 Anastasia Krupskaya.
Foresight study about the use of blockchain to prevent employees’ psychological distress: research avenues and insights for HRM practitionershttps://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/FS-02-2022-0009/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestThe prevention of mental health issues at work represents a significant challenge for organizations. The transformation of workplaces whose future promises to be virtual or hybrid can make the anticipation and prevention of these health issues more challenging, considering the potential distance that it may create between employees and their employers. The recent health crisis undermined individual mental health but also highlighted the importance of new technologies which greatly paved the way for the future of workplaces. This paper aims to examine these new technologies, specifically the use of blockchain technologies in organizations to predict and prevent mental health issues at work, specifically psychological distress, in times of crisis, and beyond. It addresses the main challenges and opportunities and presents research avenues as well as insights for human resource management (HRM) practitioners. This paper is a viewpoint that addresses the use of blockchain technology in the prevention of employees’ mental health at work in times of crisis and beyond. Literature was used to support this viewpoint and highlight the importance of addressing mental health issues at work and preventing their occurrence in the future. Blockchain is one of the disruptive new technologies that can be used as a strategic tool for organizations to prevent mental health issues among employees in the workplace in times of crisis, and beyond. It facilitates the collaboration between employees, their organization, healthcare and employee assistance program (EPA) providers, as well as insurance companies. In this context, a specific type of blockchain should be used to support this type of collaboration. Blockchain can generate both opportunities and challenges for the prevention of mental issues at work. It can transform the future of workplaces and help organizations as well as healthcare and EPA providers to anticipate potential employees’ mental health issues in 2019. Organizations need to address their readiness to implement this new technology and the possible reluctance of their employees to use it. This paper presents insights for managers and HRM practitioners. The studies that have addressed the use of blockchain in organizations to prevent employees’ mental health issues are sparse. This paper is an attempt to address this gap and examine the challenges as well as the opportunities associated with the use of this disruptive new technology that can significantly reshape the future of workplaces.Foresight study about the use of blockchain to prevent employees’ psychological distress: research avenues and insights for HRM practitioners
Salima Hamouche, Zakariya Chabani, Mohamed Dawood Shamout
Foresight, Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print, pp.-

The prevention of mental health issues at work represents a significant challenge for organizations. The transformation of workplaces whose future promises to be virtual or hybrid can make the anticipation and prevention of these health issues more challenging, considering the potential distance that it may create between employees and their employers. The recent health crisis undermined individual mental health but also highlighted the importance of new technologies which greatly paved the way for the future of workplaces. This paper aims to examine these new technologies, specifically the use of blockchain technologies in organizations to predict and prevent mental health issues at work, specifically psychological distress, in times of crisis, and beyond. It addresses the main challenges and opportunities and presents research avenues as well as insights for human resource management (HRM) practitioners.

This paper is a viewpoint that addresses the use of blockchain technology in the prevention of employees’ mental health at work in times of crisis and beyond. Literature was used to support this viewpoint and highlight the importance of addressing mental health issues at work and preventing their occurrence in the future.

Blockchain is one of the disruptive new technologies that can be used as a strategic tool for organizations to prevent mental health issues among employees in the workplace in times of crisis, and beyond. It facilitates the collaboration between employees, their organization, healthcare and employee assistance program (EPA) providers, as well as insurance companies. In this context, a specific type of blockchain should be used to support this type of collaboration.

Blockchain can generate both opportunities and challenges for the prevention of mental issues at work. It can transform the future of workplaces and help organizations as well as healthcare and EPA providers to anticipate potential employees’ mental health issues in 2019. Organizations need to address their readiness to implement this new technology and the possible reluctance of their employees to use it. This paper presents insights for managers and HRM practitioners.

The studies that have addressed the use of blockchain in organizations to prevent employees’ mental health issues are sparse. This paper is an attempt to address this gap and examine the challenges as well as the opportunities associated with the use of this disruptive new technology that can significantly reshape the future of workplaces.

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Foresight study about the use of blockchain to prevent employees’ psychological distress: research avenues and insights for HRM practitioners10.1108/FS-02-2022-0009Foresight2023-12-12© 2023 Emerald Publishing LimitedSalima HamoucheZakariya ChabaniMohamed Dawood ShamoutForesightahead-of-printahead-of-print2023-12-1210.1108/FS-02-2022-0009https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/FS-02-2022-0009/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2023 Emerald Publishing Limited
Forecasting future bigrams and promising patents: introducing text-based link predictionhttps://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/FS-03-2021-0078/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestIn recent years patents have become a very popular data source for forecasting technological changes. However, since a vast amount of patents are “worthless” (Moore, 2005), there is a need to identify the promising ones. For this purpose, previous approaches have mainly used bibliographic data, thus neglecting the benefits of textual data, such as instant accessibility at patent disclosure. To leverage these benefits, this study aims to develop an approach that uses textual patent data for predicting promising patents. For the identification of promising patents, the authors propose a novel approach which combines link prediction with textual patent data. Thereby the authors are able to predict the emergence of hitherto unmentioned bigrams. By mapping these future bigrams to recent patents, the authors are able to distinguish between promising and nonpromising patents. To validate this approach, the authors apply the methodology to the case example of camera technology. The authors identify stochastic gradient descent as a suitable algorithm with both a receiver operating characteristic area under curve score and a positive predictive value of 78%, which outperforms chance by a factor of two. In addition, the authors present promising camera patents for diverse application fields, such as cameras for surgical systems, cameras for rearview vision systems in vehicles or light amplification by stimulated emission of radiation detection and ranging cameras for three-dimensional imaging. This study contributes in at least three directions to scholarship. First, the authors introduce a novel approach by combining link prediction with textual patent analysis and, in this way, leverage the benefits of both worlds. Second, the authors add to all theories that regard novel technologies as a recombination of existing technologies in presenting word combinations from textual data as a suitable instrument for revealing recombination in patents. And third, the approach can be used by scholars as a complementary or even integrative tool with conventional forecasting methods like the Delphi technique or Scenario planning. At least three practical implications arise from the study. First, incumbent firms of a technology branch can use this approach as an early-warning system to identify technological change and to identify opportunities related to their company’s technological competence and provide inspiration for new ideas. Second, companies seeking to tap into new markets may also be interested in the approach as managers could anticipate whether their company’s technological competences are in line with upcoming trends. Third, the approach may be used as a supportive tool for various purposes, such as investment decisions or technology life cycle analysis. The approach introduces textual patent data as suitable means for forecasting activities. As the statistical validation reveals, the promising patents identified by the approach are cited significantly more often than patents with less promising prospects.Forecasting future bigrams and promising patents: introducing text-based link prediction
Nils M. Denter, Lukas Jan Aaldering, Huseyin Caferoglu
Foresight, Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print, pp.-

In recent years patents have become a very popular data source for forecasting technological changes. However, since a vast amount of patents are “worthless” (Moore, 2005), there is a need to identify the promising ones. For this purpose, previous approaches have mainly used bibliographic data, thus neglecting the benefits of textual data, such as instant accessibility at patent disclosure. To leverage these benefits, this study aims to develop an approach that uses textual patent data for predicting promising patents.

For the identification of promising patents, the authors propose a novel approach which combines link prediction with textual patent data. Thereby the authors are able to predict the emergence of hitherto unmentioned bigrams. By mapping these future bigrams to recent patents, the authors are able to distinguish between promising and nonpromising patents. To validate this approach, the authors apply the methodology to the case example of camera technology.

The authors identify stochastic gradient descent as a suitable algorithm with both a receiver operating characteristic area under curve score and a positive predictive value of 78%, which outperforms chance by a factor of two. In addition, the authors present promising camera patents for diverse application fields, such as cameras for surgical systems, cameras for rearview vision systems in vehicles or light amplification by stimulated emission of radiation detection and ranging cameras for three-dimensional imaging.

This study contributes in at least three directions to scholarship. First, the authors introduce a novel approach by combining link prediction with textual patent analysis and, in this way, leverage the benefits of both worlds. Second, the authors add to all theories that regard novel technologies as a recombination of existing technologies in presenting word combinations from textual data as a suitable instrument for revealing recombination in patents. And third, the approach can be used by scholars as a complementary or even integrative tool with conventional forecasting methods like the Delphi technique or Scenario planning.

At least three practical implications arise from the study. First, incumbent firms of a technology branch can use this approach as an early-warning system to identify technological change and to identify opportunities related to their company’s technological competence and provide inspiration for new ideas. Second, companies seeking to tap into new markets may also be interested in the approach as managers could anticipate whether their company’s technological competences are in line with upcoming trends. Third, the approach may be used as a supportive tool for various purposes, such as investment decisions or technology life cycle analysis.

The approach introduces textual patent data as suitable means for forecasting activities. As the statistical validation reveals, the promising patents identified by the approach are cited significantly more often than patents with less promising prospects.

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Forecasting future bigrams and promising patents: introducing text-based link prediction10.1108/FS-03-2021-0078Foresight2022-04-27© 2022 Emerald Publishing LimitedNils M. DenterLukas Jan AalderingHuseyin CaferogluForesightahead-of-printahead-of-print2022-04-2710.1108/FS-03-2021-0078https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/FS-03-2021-0078/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2022 Emerald Publishing Limited
Examining perceptions of utilizing augmented reality in hybrid learning environment: instructors and students perspectiveshttps://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/FS-04-2023-0069/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestThis study aims to explore the perceptions of language learners and instructors on using augmented reality (AR) in a hybrid learning environment. Mixed-method research design was used to elicit information from 62 participants on the study’s objective. Data were collected and analyzed to examine the participants’ views on using AR in language teaching in a hybrid environment. This study unveils that while most studies acknowledge AR as an effective instructional delivery, students and instructors perceive some setbacks. Other novel insights provided by this study reveal necessities to consider before implementing AR in classroom settings. This study provides insights into the widely reported effectiveness of AR in the English language-teaching domain. This study suggests that considering the dispositions of learners and instructors toward digitally enhanced learning, using AR without good teaching practices and approaches may not yield expected learning outcomes. This study advances scientific knowledge on the use of AR in hybrid learning models by providing empirical evidence to show the perceived effectiveness of AR. It further provides a robust understanding of the pedagogical implications of using AR in classroom settings drawing from diverse lenses. This helps ensure that educational settings that integrate AR consider the novel findings of this study before such implementation.Examining perceptions of utilizing augmented reality in hybrid learning environment: instructors and students perspectives
Chinaza Solomon Ironsi
Foresight, Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print, pp.-

This study aims to explore the perceptions of language learners and instructors on using augmented reality (AR) in a hybrid learning environment.

Mixed-method research design was used to elicit information from 62 participants on the study’s objective. Data were collected and analyzed to examine the participants’ views on using AR in language teaching in a hybrid environment.

This study unveils that while most studies acknowledge AR as an effective instructional delivery, students and instructors perceive some setbacks. Other novel insights provided by this study reveal necessities to consider before implementing AR in classroom settings.

This study provides insights into the widely reported effectiveness of AR in the English language-teaching domain. This study suggests that considering the dispositions of learners and instructors toward digitally enhanced learning, using AR without good teaching practices and approaches may not yield expected learning outcomes.

This study advances scientific knowledge on the use of AR in hybrid learning models by providing empirical evidence to show the perceived effectiveness of AR. It further provides a robust understanding of the pedagogical implications of using AR in classroom settings drawing from diverse lenses. This helps ensure that educational settings that integrate AR consider the novel findings of this study before such implementation.

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Examining perceptions of utilizing augmented reality in hybrid learning environment: instructors and students perspectives10.1108/FS-04-2023-0069Foresight2024-02-15© 2024 Emerald Publishing LimitedChinaza Solomon IronsiForesightahead-of-printahead-of-print2024-02-1510.1108/FS-04-2023-0069https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/FS-04-2023-0069/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2024 Emerald Publishing Limited
Analysis of driving factors influencing vaccine policy in Iran: a cross-impact analysishttps://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/FS-05-2022-0050/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestDespite significant progress in Iran's immunization programs, vaccine policymaking in the country still faces various challenges and shortcomings. To address these issues and ensure sustained progress toward achieving comprehensive vaccination policies, it is essential to identify the critical factors influencing vaccine policies in Iran. Our study aims to provide evidence-based insights that can inform the development of effective and equitable vaccine strategies, leading to a more sustainable and efficient approach to vaccination in the country. This mixed-method study aimed to analyze the factors influencing the future of human vaccine policy using Cross Impact Analysis. Firstly, a scoping review was conducted to identify the factors affecting the future of human vaccine development. Secondly, a semi-structured interview was conducted with experts in this field to add more factors and confirm the identified factors within the Iranian context. Finally, a Cross-Impact Analysis (CIA) approach was applied to comprehend the complex relationships between the identified factors. Thematic analysis was used for the qualitative data, and MICMAC analysis was applied to characterize the relationships between the factors. Seventeen key driving force factors were identified through comprehensive review and interviews. These factors were assigned weighted values ranging from zero to three and subsequently analyzed using MICMAC software. Employing the Cross-Impact Analysis (CIA) technique, the study characterized the impact of each factor on vaccine policy and elucidated the intricate interactions between them. The findings underscored that robust leadership and governance, an innovative ecosystem, and well-established immunization information systems emerged as pivotal driving forces shaping vaccine policy in Iran. While this study contributes valuable insights into the driving factors influencing vaccine policy in Iran, it is important to acknowledge several limitations. The results rely on the subjective perceptions of a diverse group of specialists, and future research could delve into additional factors in other countries to identify common themes and differences. This study provides evidence to assist policymakers in making informed decisions regarding vaccines in Iran. The findings suggest that enhancing access to vaccines, fostering trust in the healthcare system, and prioritizing equity in distribution can contribute to increased vaccination rates and a reduction in vaccine-preventable diseases. This study provides a unique contribution to the field of vaccine policy by utilizing the cross-impact analysis to examine the complex interactions among various factors. The results of this analysis demonstrate that these interactions can significantly impact the overall system, highlighting the need for policymakers to consider multiple factors when formulating effective strategies. By revealing the significance of these interactions, this research offers valuable insights into the development of successful policies that can shape a desirable future for vaccine policy in Iran. Future studies could ratify the findings from this research by applying other methodological approaches.Analysis of driving factors influencing vaccine policy in Iran: a cross-impact analysis
Maziar Moradi-Lakeh, Salime Goharinezhad, Ali Amirkafi, Seyed Mohsen Zahraei, Arash Tehrani-Banihashemi, Abdolreza Esteghamati
Foresight, Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print, pp.-

Despite significant progress in Iran's immunization programs, vaccine policymaking in the country still faces various challenges and shortcomings. To address these issues and ensure sustained progress toward achieving comprehensive vaccination policies, it is essential to identify the critical factors influencing vaccine policies in Iran. Our study aims to provide evidence-based insights that can inform the development of effective and equitable vaccine strategies, leading to a more sustainable and efficient approach to vaccination in the country.

This mixed-method study aimed to analyze the factors influencing the future of human vaccine policy using Cross Impact Analysis. Firstly, a scoping review was conducted to identify the factors affecting the future of human vaccine development. Secondly, a semi-structured interview was conducted with experts in this field to add more factors and confirm the identified factors within the Iranian context. Finally, a Cross-Impact Analysis (CIA) approach was applied to comprehend the complex relationships between the identified factors. Thematic analysis was used for the qualitative data, and MICMAC analysis was applied to characterize the relationships between the factors.

Seventeen key driving force factors were identified through comprehensive review and interviews. These factors were assigned weighted values ranging from zero to three and subsequently analyzed using MICMAC software. Employing the Cross-Impact Analysis (CIA) technique, the study characterized the impact of each factor on vaccine policy and elucidated the intricate interactions between them. The findings underscored that robust leadership and governance, an innovative ecosystem, and well-established immunization information systems emerged as pivotal driving forces shaping vaccine policy in Iran.

While this study contributes valuable insights into the driving factors influencing vaccine policy in Iran, it is important to acknowledge several limitations. The results rely on the subjective perceptions of a diverse group of specialists, and future research could delve into additional factors in other countries to identify common themes and differences.

This study provides evidence to assist policymakers in making informed decisions regarding vaccines in Iran. The findings suggest that enhancing access to vaccines, fostering trust in the healthcare system, and prioritizing equity in distribution can contribute to increased vaccination rates and a reduction in vaccine-preventable diseases.

This study provides a unique contribution to the field of vaccine policy by utilizing the cross-impact analysis to examine the complex interactions among various factors. The results of this analysis demonstrate that these interactions can significantly impact the overall system, highlighting the need for policymakers to consider multiple factors when formulating effective strategies. By revealing the significance of these interactions, this research offers valuable insights into the development of successful policies that can shape a desirable future for vaccine policy in Iran. Future studies could ratify the findings from this research by applying other methodological approaches.

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Analysis of driving factors influencing vaccine policy in Iran: a cross-impact analysis10.1108/FS-05-2022-0050Foresight2024-03-04© 2024 Emerald Publishing LimitedMaziar Moradi-LakehSalime GoharinezhadAli AmirkafiSeyed Mohsen ZahraeiArash Tehrani-BanihashemiAbdolreza EsteghamatiForesightahead-of-printahead-of-print2024-03-0410.1108/FS-05-2022-0050https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/FS-05-2022-0050/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2024 Emerald Publishing Limited
New demands by hotel customers post COVID-19 erahttps://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/FS-05-2023-0082/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestThe purpose of this study is to understand the situation of hotels and tourism industry in Malaysia during and in post Covid-19 and to mitigate indirect damage caused by COVID-19 to the hotel business and tourism industry by examining the factors that have an influence on hotel’s customer satisfaction rating and revisit intention through an integration of service quality (SERVQUAL) framework and expectation-confirmation theory (ECT). The SERVQUAL and ECT were considered the underpinning theoretical models but are integrated and extended by including a few additional variables. Data were collected from 458 respondents of travelers and hotel customers in Malaysia and analysed by applying partial least squares structural equation model technique. The empirical results established that significant positive relationships exist between the three newly emerged independent variables (IVs), namely, hygienic practice, greenness of service and digitalization and hotel customer satisfaction towards hotel revisit intention, and only two variables from SERVQUAL, namely, reliability and assurance, have a significant relationship with hotel customer satisfaction towards hotel revisit intention. The results reveal that customer satisfaction has significant direct effect between above-mentioned IVs and customers revisit intention. The use of purposeful sampling method in only one country might limit the generalizability of the results. Future research should be planned to duplicate the current study using a sizable sample of participants from multiple countries and include other related factors related to the pandemic phenomena such as safety, hotel location and health value offered. Theoretical findings imply that service quality is a dynamic theory that should be examined continuously to achieve sustainable and resilient performance in today’s competitive business environment, as some modifications inevitably occur over time and new factors could be emerged. Regarding practical implications, study findings proved the great significance of assurance, reliability, digitalization, greenness and hygienic practices on customer satisfaction towards intention to revisit to hotel. Therefore, it is critical for hotel management to retain hotel business industry in a way that fits and matches customer’s health protection, meets customer’s newly prompted expectations and needs and ensures resilience during unsettled times. This study is unique as the newly emerged variables are included in the research framework, and thus it helps to close the literature gap by introducing an integrated SERVQUAL and ECT theoretical model, which rarely performs in this context and can be replicated or extended with validated scales. This study contributes to enhancing hotel and tourism sustainable service quality performance to achieve myriad economic and health values.New demands by hotel customers post COVID-19 era
Nabil Hasan Saleh Al-Kumaim, Marya Samer, Siti Hasnah Hassan, Muhammad Salman Shabbir, Fathey Mohammed, Samer Al-Shami
Foresight, Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print, pp.-

The purpose of this study is to understand the situation of hotels and tourism industry in Malaysia during and in post Covid-19 and to mitigate indirect damage caused by COVID-19 to the hotel business and tourism industry by examining the factors that have an influence on hotel’s customer satisfaction rating and revisit intention through an integration of service quality (SERVQUAL) framework and expectation-confirmation theory (ECT).

The SERVQUAL and ECT were considered the underpinning theoretical models but are integrated and extended by including a few additional variables. Data were collected from 458 respondents of travelers and hotel customers in Malaysia and analysed by applying partial least squares structural equation model technique.

The empirical results established that significant positive relationships exist between the three newly emerged independent variables (IVs), namely, hygienic practice, greenness of service and digitalization and hotel customer satisfaction towards hotel revisit intention, and only two variables from SERVQUAL, namely, reliability and assurance, have a significant relationship with hotel customer satisfaction towards hotel revisit intention. The results reveal that customer satisfaction has significant direct effect between above-mentioned IVs and customers revisit intention.

The use of purposeful sampling method in only one country might limit the generalizability of the results. Future research should be planned to duplicate the current study using a sizable sample of participants from multiple countries and include other related factors related to the pandemic phenomena such as safety, hotel location and health value offered.

Theoretical findings imply that service quality is a dynamic theory that should be examined continuously to achieve sustainable and resilient performance in today’s competitive business environment, as some modifications inevitably occur over time and new factors could be emerged. Regarding practical implications, study findings proved the great significance of assurance, reliability, digitalization, greenness and hygienic practices on customer satisfaction towards intention to revisit to hotel. Therefore, it is critical for hotel management to retain hotel business industry in a way that fits and matches customer’s health protection, meets customer’s newly prompted expectations and needs and ensures resilience during unsettled times.

This study is unique as the newly emerged variables are included in the research framework, and thus it helps to close the literature gap by introducing an integrated SERVQUAL and ECT theoretical model, which rarely performs in this context and can be replicated or extended with validated scales. This study contributes to enhancing hotel and tourism sustainable service quality performance to achieve myriad economic and health values.

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New demands by hotel customers post COVID-19 era10.1108/FS-05-2023-0082Foresight2023-10-16© 2023 Emerald Publishing LimitedNabil Hasan Saleh Al-KumaimMarya SamerSiti Hasnah HassanMuhammad Salman ShabbirFathey MohammedSamer Al-ShamiForesightahead-of-printahead-of-print2023-10-1610.1108/FS-05-2023-0082https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/FS-05-2023-0082/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2023 Emerald Publishing Limited
Do intellectual property rights promote foreign direct investment inflows and technological exports in developing and developed countries?https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/FS-05-2023-0096/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestThis study aims to analyse the intellectual property rights (INPR), foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows and technological exports of 32 developing and developed countries for the period of 2006–2020. Diagnostic tests were used to confirm the panel least squares, fixed effect, random effect, feasible general least squares, dynamic ordinary least squares and fully modified ordinary least squares estimator results as well as to increase the robustness. According to the findings for the developing countries, trademark, patent and industrial design applications, each had a significant positive long-run effect on FDI inflows. In addition, there was a significant positive long-run relationship between patent applications and medium- and high-technology exports. Meanwhile, trademark and industrial design applications had a significant negative long-term effect on medium- and high-technology exports. In developed countries, patent and industrial design applications each have a significant negative long-term on medium- and high-technology exports. Furthermore, patent and trademark applications each had a significant negative long-run effect on FDI inflows. This study contributes significantly to the focus that host countries evaluate the technology gaps between domestic and foreign investors at different industry levels to select the best INPR rules and innovation process by increasing international cooperation. Furthermore, the host countries should follow the structure–conduct–performance paradigm based on analysis of the market structure, strategic firms and industrial dynamics systems.Do intellectual property rights promote foreign direct investment inflows and technological exports in developing and developed countries?
Faris ALshubiri, Mawih Kareem Al Ani
Foresight, Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print, pp.-

This study aims to analyse the intellectual property rights (INPR), foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows and technological exports of 32 developing and developed countries for the period of 2006–2020.

Diagnostic tests were used to confirm the panel least squares, fixed effect, random effect, feasible general least squares, dynamic ordinary least squares and fully modified ordinary least squares estimator results as well as to increase the robustness.

According to the findings for the developing countries, trademark, patent and industrial design applications, each had a significant positive long-run effect on FDI inflows. In addition, there was a significant positive long-run relationship between patent applications and medium- and high-technology exports. Meanwhile, trademark and industrial design applications had a significant negative long-term effect on medium- and high-technology exports. In developed countries, patent and industrial design applications each have a significant negative long-term on medium- and high-technology exports. Furthermore, patent and trademark applications each had a significant negative long-run effect on FDI inflows.

This study contributes significantly to the focus that host countries evaluate the technology gaps between domestic and foreign investors at different industry levels to select the best INPR rules and innovation process by increasing international cooperation. Furthermore, the host countries should follow the structure–conduct–performance paradigm based on analysis of the market structure, strategic firms and industrial dynamics systems.

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Do intellectual property rights promote foreign direct investment inflows and technological exports in developing and developed countries?10.1108/FS-05-2023-0096Foresight2024-01-26© 2024 Emerald Publishing LimitedFaris ALshubiriMawih Kareem Al AniForesightahead-of-printahead-of-print2024-01-2610.1108/FS-05-2023-0096https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/FS-05-2023-0096/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2024 Emerald Publishing Limited
AQI revisioned: a critical realism approach to transforming air pollutionhttps://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/FS-06-2021-0129/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestThis paper aims to present the case for critical realism (CR) as a framework in steering the anticipatory and participatory activities an appropriate analysis of complex problems, aiming toward a transformative change. Through observation, interview and facilitation for Circular Design Lab and Thai Clean Air Network, this paper unpacks their foresight activities, their key findings and subsequently connects to the Morphogenesis analysis based on an alternative foresight epistemology of CR. Foresight based on CR philosophy provides a deeper understanding of the complexity and invisibility of air pollution issues in Thailand. Acknowledging the transitive reality beyond this study’s perception, the activity design applies the iceberg models to investigate problem framing and illustrate the stratified reality in three domains: the empirical based on emission reports and legislative regulations; the actual based on patterns of farmers practice and industrial development, activated by causal mechanisms; the real based on structural and mental models, driven by cultural and belief systems in Thailand. At the bottom layer of the iceberg, the real lies the generative mechanisms of pre-existing structural and cultures that constrain Thai citizen from acting on social change. CR’s emancipatory theory provides an immanent critique towards social improvement by illustrating comprehensive causal explanations of complex problems such as air pollution; while morphogenesis theory elaborates on the unconscious domination of the existing social structures, agencies, and cultures. Thus, the ethical inquiry of CR research is committed to the emancipation of false beliefs and creating conditions for “human prosperity”. However, this non-neutral value commitment is debated in the futures studies field. The anticipatory activities on air pollution in Thailand bring to light the reality of power and oppression beyond human perception and illustrate the connection to the belief systems and its consequential action or lack thereof in dealing with the issues. The insight to power relationship provides an unconventional way to empower citizens in creating transformative change. Modern foresight practice has developed under western cultures and societies. Recent efforts are made to investigate the epistemology underlying this field, for the future issues are ever more complex and interrelated across multiple sectors. This requires this study’s consideration of the meaning of knowledge and knowing, influencing the research paradigm. This paper proposes CR as a suitable foresight approach to emancipate this study from the widely accepted epistemologies and examine this study’s presupposition about social reality by a philosophical explanation based on the elements of ontology, causation, structure and persons.AQI revisioned: a critical realism approach to transforming air pollution
Thasanawan Boonmavichit
Foresight, Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print, pp.-

This paper aims to present the case for critical realism (CR) as a framework in steering the anticipatory and participatory activities an appropriate analysis of complex problems, aiming toward a transformative change.

Through observation, interview and facilitation for Circular Design Lab and Thai Clean Air Network, this paper unpacks their foresight activities, their key findings and subsequently connects to the Morphogenesis analysis based on an alternative foresight epistemology of CR.

Foresight based on CR philosophy provides a deeper understanding of the complexity and invisibility of air pollution issues in Thailand. Acknowledging the transitive reality beyond this study’s perception, the activity design applies the iceberg models to investigate problem framing and illustrate the stratified reality in three domains: the empirical based on emission reports and legislative regulations; the actual based on patterns of farmers practice and industrial development, activated by causal mechanisms; the real based on structural and mental models, driven by cultural and belief systems in Thailand. At the bottom layer of the iceberg, the real lies the generative mechanisms of pre-existing structural and cultures that constrain Thai citizen from acting on social change.

CR’s emancipatory theory provides an immanent critique towards social improvement by illustrating comprehensive causal explanations of complex problems such as air pollution; while morphogenesis theory elaborates on the unconscious domination of the existing social structures, agencies, and cultures. Thus, the ethical inquiry of CR research is committed to the emancipation of false beliefs and creating conditions for “human prosperity”. However, this non-neutral value commitment is debated in the futures studies field.

The anticipatory activities on air pollution in Thailand bring to light the reality of power and oppression beyond human perception and illustrate the connection to the belief systems and its consequential action or lack thereof in dealing with the issues. The insight to power relationship provides an unconventional way to empower citizens in creating transformative change.

Modern foresight practice has developed under western cultures and societies. Recent efforts are made to investigate the epistemology underlying this field, for the future issues are ever more complex and interrelated across multiple sectors. This requires this study’s consideration of the meaning of knowledge and knowing, influencing the research paradigm. This paper proposes CR as a suitable foresight approach to emancipate this study from the widely accepted epistemologies and examine this study’s presupposition about social reality by a philosophical explanation based on the elements of ontology, causation, structure and persons.

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AQI revisioned: a critical realism approach to transforming air pollution10.1108/FS-06-2021-0129Foresight2022-07-13© 2022 Emerald Publishing LimitedThasanawan BoonmavichitForesightahead-of-printahead-of-print2022-07-1310.1108/FS-06-2021-0129https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/FS-06-2021-0129/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2022 Emerald Publishing Limited
Mission-oriented scenarios in “Turin 2030 – future proof” projecthttps://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/FS-06-2023-0119/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestThe purpose of this study is to propose an innovative and efficient process in urban policy-making that combines a divergent and creative method with a convergent and strategic one. At the same time, the purpose is also to propose a useful innovation to enforce the usability of both methods. On the one hand, mission-oriented policies run the risk of being overly focused on the present and of not being able to develop preparedness in organization. On the other hand, scenario development has the reverse problem it often does not point out how to use scenario narratives to inform and devise short-term strategic actions. The paper proposes an innovative methodological approach, the mission-oriented scenarios, which hybridizes Mazzucato's mission-oriented public policy framework with Jim Dator's Manoa school four futures method. The proposed methodological innovation emerges from a urban foresight academic-led project carried out in the context of the Metropolitan City of Turin, Italy, where a first application of the mission-oriented scenarios was tested on six different focal issues (from reindustrialization to cultural policies) and the scenario narratives were used as sources for the grounding of 12 missions and 48 strategic actions towards 2030. Mission-oriented scenarios can contribute to the generation of more sustainable and inclusive urban public policies. This methodological proposal is based on an original mix of knowledge exchange procedures borrowed from methodological approaches with different backgrounds: the mission-oriented and the archetypal scenarios. Their conjunction could support the formulation of ambitious yet pragmatic policies, giving a plurality of actors the opportunity to act and establish fruitful and lasting partnerships. The paper reconstructs one of the first urban foresight projects carried out in a major Italian city by two prestigious universities and exposes a methodological innovation resulting from reflection on the strengths and weaknesses of the project, which opens the door to the development of a new scenario technique.Mission-oriented scenarios in “Turin 2030 – future proof” project
Claudio Marciano, Alex Fergnani, Alberto Robiati
Foresight, Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print, pp.-

The purpose of this study is to propose an innovative and efficient process in urban policy-making that combines a divergent and creative method with a convergent and strategic one. At the same time, the purpose is also to propose a useful innovation to enforce the usability of both methods. On the one hand, mission-oriented policies run the risk of being overly focused on the present and of not being able to develop preparedness in organization. On the other hand, scenario development has the reverse problem it often does not point out how to use scenario narratives to inform and devise short-term strategic actions.

The paper proposes an innovative methodological approach, the mission-oriented scenarios, which hybridizes Mazzucato's mission-oriented public policy framework with Jim Dator's Manoa school four futures method. The proposed methodological innovation emerges from a urban foresight academic-led project carried out in the context of the Metropolitan City of Turin, Italy, where a first application of the mission-oriented scenarios was tested on six different focal issues (from reindustrialization to cultural policies) and the scenario narratives were used as sources for the grounding of 12 missions and 48 strategic actions towards 2030.

Mission-oriented scenarios can contribute to the generation of more sustainable and inclusive urban public policies. This methodological proposal is based on an original mix of knowledge exchange procedures borrowed from methodological approaches with different backgrounds: the mission-oriented and the archetypal scenarios. Their conjunction could support the formulation of ambitious yet pragmatic policies, giving a plurality of actors the opportunity to act and establish fruitful and lasting partnerships.

The paper reconstructs one of the first urban foresight projects carried out in a major Italian city by two prestigious universities and exposes a methodological innovation resulting from reflection on the strengths and weaknesses of the project, which opens the door to the development of a new scenario technique.

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Mission-oriented scenarios in “Turin 2030 – future proof” project10.1108/FS-06-2023-0119Foresight2024-03-11© 2024 Claudio Marciano, Alex Fergnani and Alberto Robiati.Claudio MarcianoAlex FergnaniAlberto RobiatiForesightahead-of-printahead-of-print2024-03-1110.1108/FS-06-2023-0119https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/FS-06-2023-0119/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2024 Claudio Marciano, Alex Fergnani and Alberto Robiati.http://creativecommons.org/licences/by/4.0/legalcode
Sustainable supply chain performance lesson from Malaysian manufacturing firmshttps://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/FS-07-2022-0082/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestThis study aims to investigate the impact of sustainable innovation and disruptive innovation on sustainable supply chain performance of manufacturing firms in Malaysia. The study also examined the moderating role of supply chain clockspeed in the relationship between sustainable innovation, disruptive innovation and sustainable supply chain performance. The data were collected from 231 respondents in manufacturing firms in Malaysia. The data were analyzed using the partial least square-based structural equation modelling (PLS-SEM) technique. The findings revealed that sustainable innovation and disruptive innovation had a significant and positive effect on sustainable supply chain performance. Supply chain clockspeed moderated the relationship between sustainable innovation and sustainable supply chain performance. The findings also identified that there was no moderating effect on the relationship between disruptive innovation and sustainable supply chain performance. This study merely focuses on sustainable supply chain performance in Malaysian manufacturing firms. Samples from manufacturing firms in Malaysia were used in the current study, and the outcomes may vary for different nations. To increase the firm’s commercial success, it is necessary to promote sustainable supply chain practices, including supply chain clockspeed, sustainable innovation and disruptive innovation. This study adds to the body of knowledge by explaining the positive influence of sustainable innovation and disruptive innovation on sustainable supply chain performance in Malaysian manufacturing firms while also emphasizing the moderating role of supply chain clockspeed in this relationship. The contribution of this study could enable managers to develop sustainable supply chain performance in the manufacturing sector, based on sustainable innovation, disruptive innovation and supply chain clockspeed.Sustainable supply chain performance lesson from Malaysian manufacturing firms
Suhaiza Zailani, Muhammad Khalilur Rahman, Asif Hussain Nizamani, Azmin Azliza Aziz, Miraj Ahmed Bhuiyan, Md. Abu Issa Gazi
Foresight, Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print, pp.-

This study aims to investigate the impact of sustainable innovation and disruptive innovation on sustainable supply chain performance of manufacturing firms in Malaysia. The study also examined the moderating role of supply chain clockspeed in the relationship between sustainable innovation, disruptive innovation and sustainable supply chain performance.

The data were collected from 231 respondents in manufacturing firms in Malaysia. The data were analyzed using the partial least square-based structural equation modelling (PLS-SEM) technique.

The findings revealed that sustainable innovation and disruptive innovation had a significant and positive effect on sustainable supply chain performance. Supply chain clockspeed moderated the relationship between sustainable innovation and sustainable supply chain performance. The findings also identified that there was no moderating effect on the relationship between disruptive innovation and sustainable supply chain performance.

This study merely focuses on sustainable supply chain performance in Malaysian manufacturing firms. Samples from manufacturing firms in Malaysia were used in the current study, and the outcomes may vary for different nations.

To increase the firm’s commercial success, it is necessary to promote sustainable supply chain practices, including supply chain clockspeed, sustainable innovation and disruptive innovation.

This study adds to the body of knowledge by explaining the positive influence of sustainable innovation and disruptive innovation on sustainable supply chain performance in Malaysian manufacturing firms while also emphasizing the moderating role of supply chain clockspeed in this relationship. The contribution of this study could enable managers to develop sustainable supply chain performance in the manufacturing sector, based on sustainable innovation, disruptive innovation and supply chain clockspeed.

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Sustainable supply chain performance lesson from Malaysian manufacturing firms10.1108/FS-07-2022-0082Foresight2023-11-03© 2023 Emerald Publishing LimitedSuhaiza ZailaniMuhammad Khalilur RahmanAsif Hussain NizamaniAzmin Azliza AzizMiraj Ahmed BhuiyanMd. Abu Issa GaziForesightahead-of-printahead-of-print2023-11-0310.1108/FS-07-2022-0082https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/FS-07-2022-0082/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2023 Emerald Publishing Limited
Actores sociales construyendo visiones comunitarias en el sur globalhttps://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/FS-08-2022-0089/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestIdentificar los aspectos que los Actores Sociales consideran en la construcción de futuros compartidos en las comunidades. En su aplicación en los países emergentes, especialmente en el Sur Global, a menudo se pasan por alto las particularidades socioculturales de las comunidades y los actores, generando fricciones o conflictos sociales. Este artículo presenta dos elementos críticos que contribuyen al debate: a) la importancia de entender a los Actores Sociales dentro de un modelo de generación de futuros comunitarios en los países emergentes; b) los factores relevantes que influyen en los actores en un ejercicio de construcción de futuros en las comunidades. A partir de la investigación cualitativa, se utilizó un estudio de caso de prospectiva comunitaria del futuro: El futuro de Puerto Gaitán 2037 (Meta, Colombia). Se aplicó un método de recolección de información a partir de la observación de los participantes y el análisis de la documentación. El método de análisis fue el DQA (Análisis Cualitativo Deductivo). La participación de Los Actores Sociales presenta un modelo de cinco elementos relevantes que influyen en los actores para la construcción exitosa de futuros en las comunidades. Los primeros cuatro factores, revelados por la teoría, existen en la realidad. Asimismo, se demuestra un quinto factor: el Pensamiento a Largo Plazo, que se evidencia en un Modelo de aplicación de Estudios de Futuros para el contexto específico, aplicable al caso de comunidades en países del Sur Global. Si bien existen ejemplos aislados de recomendaciones respecto a estudios para generar el futuro de las comunidades, este es el primer estudio que presenta factores concretos que contribuyen a orientar la construcción de futuros comunitarios desde Actores Sociales, especialmente en países del Sur Global como Colombia. También es uno de los primeros estudios en utilizar el DQA como método de análisis en un tema de Estudios de Futuros.Actores sociales construyendo visiones comunitarias en el sur global
Fredy Vargas Lama
Foresight, Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print, pp.-

Identificar los aspectos que los Actores Sociales consideran en la construcción de futuros compartidos en las comunidades. En su aplicación en los países emergentes, especialmente en el Sur Global, a menudo se pasan por alto las particularidades socioculturales de las comunidades y los actores, generando fricciones o conflictos sociales. Este artículo presenta dos elementos críticos que contribuyen al debate: a) la importancia de entender a los Actores Sociales dentro de un modelo de generación de futuros comunitarios en los países emergentes; b) los factores relevantes que influyen en los actores en un ejercicio de construcción de futuros en las comunidades.

A partir de la investigación cualitativa, se utilizó un estudio de caso de prospectiva comunitaria del futuro: El futuro de Puerto Gaitán 2037 (Meta, Colombia). Se aplicó un método de recolección de información a partir de la observación de los participantes y el análisis de la documentación. El método de análisis fue el DQA (Análisis Cualitativo Deductivo).

La participación de Los Actores Sociales presenta un modelo de cinco elementos relevantes que influyen en los actores para la construcción exitosa de futuros en las comunidades. Los primeros cuatro factores, revelados por la teoría, existen en la realidad. Asimismo, se demuestra un quinto factor: el Pensamiento a Largo Plazo, que se evidencia en un Modelo de aplicación de Estudios de Futuros para el contexto específico, aplicable al caso de comunidades en países del Sur Global.

Si bien existen ejemplos aislados de recomendaciones respecto a estudios para generar el futuro de las comunidades, este es el primer estudio que presenta factores concretos que contribuyen a orientar la construcción de futuros comunitarios desde Actores Sociales, especialmente en países del Sur Global como Colombia. También es uno de los primeros estudios en utilizar el DQA como método de análisis en un tema de Estudios de Futuros.

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Actores sociales construyendo visiones comunitarias en el sur global10.1108/FS-08-2022-0089Foresight2022-10-10© 2022 Emerald Publishing LimitedFredy Vargas LamaForesightahead-of-printahead-of-print2022-10-1010.1108/FS-08-2022-0089https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/FS-08-2022-0089/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2022 Emerald Publishing Limited
Le futur comme bien public: décoloniser le futur par la recherche-action participative anticipatoirehttps://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/FS-08-2022-0090/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestL'objectif visé est de nourrir les réflexions sur la colonisation du futur dans le présent en mettant particulièrement l’accent sur le continent africain. Nous visons à explorer comment la recherche participative, et plus particulièrement la recherche-action anticipatoire, peut contribuer au processus de décolonisation effective. Considérant le futur comme un bien public, nous mobilisons une réflexion sur les processus coloniaux qui l’ont transformé, à bien des égards, en bien de club ou en bien privé. Nous faisons ensuite appel aux notions de production participative de connaissances et de recherche-action locale comme moyens de décoloniser le futur et de libérer l'imagination. Nous revisitons ensuite les principes de la recherche-action participative pour atteindre cet objectif et nous examinons les principales caractéristiques d'une recherche-action anticipatoire non coloniale dans le contexte des futurs de l'Afrique. Nous mettons en évidence les défis issus de la relation entre les efforts d'anticipation axés sur la recherche-action, la création d'une intelligence collective et la co-conception (codesign), dans le but d'encourager le processus de décolonisation. Cette démarche inclut des principes de conception, établit les bases pour un processus anticipatoire, potentiellement décolonial et envisage une possible réaction du système dominant à l’encontre de ce processus de décolonisation. Il s’agit d’un travail conceptuel, qui ne fournit pas d’éléments testés sur le terrain. Toutefois, nous espérons que cela constituera un apport permettant de concevoir des méthodologies qui préviendront la colonisation du futur lors de la participation à des activités de recherche tournées vers les futurs en Afrique et ailleurs. Nous proposons une approche intégrale de la colonisation du futur, comme renouvellement d’une question ancienne. Nous articulons également cette démarche autour d’une réflexion sur la nature de ce que pourrait être une recherche-action anticipatoire décoloniale.Le futur comme bien public: décoloniser le futur par la recherche-action participative anticipatoire
Robin Bourgeois, Kwamou Eva Feukeu, Geci Karuri-Sebina
Foresight, Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print, pp.-

L'objectif visé est de nourrir les réflexions sur la colonisation du futur dans le présent en mettant particulièrement l’accent sur le continent africain. Nous visons à explorer comment la recherche participative, et plus particulièrement la recherche-action anticipatoire, peut contribuer au processus de décolonisation effective.

Considérant le futur comme un bien public, nous mobilisons une réflexion sur les processus coloniaux qui l’ont transformé, à bien des égards, en bien de club ou en bien privé. Nous faisons ensuite appel aux notions de production participative de connaissances et de recherche-action locale comme moyens de décoloniser le futur et de libérer l'imagination. Nous revisitons ensuite les principes de la recherche-action participative pour atteindre cet objectif et nous examinons les principales caractéristiques d'une recherche-action anticipatoire non coloniale dans le contexte des futurs de l'Afrique.

Nous mettons en évidence les défis issus de la relation entre les efforts d'anticipation axés sur la recherche-action, la création d'une intelligence collective et la co-conception (codesign), dans le but d'encourager le processus de décolonisation. Cette démarche inclut des principes de conception, établit les bases pour un processus anticipatoire, potentiellement décolonial et envisage une possible réaction du système dominant à l’encontre de ce processus de décolonisation.

Il s’agit d’un travail conceptuel, qui ne fournit pas d’éléments testés sur le terrain. Toutefois, nous espérons que cela constituera un apport permettant de concevoir des méthodologies qui préviendront la colonisation du futur lors de la participation à des activités de recherche tournées vers les futurs en Afrique et ailleurs.

Nous proposons une approche intégrale de la colonisation du futur, comme renouvellement d’une question ancienne. Nous articulons également cette démarche autour d’une réflexion sur la nature de ce que pourrait être une recherche-action anticipatoire décoloniale.

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Le futur comme bien public: décoloniser le futur par la recherche-action participative anticipatoire10.1108/FS-08-2022-0090Foresight2022-11-08© 2022 Emerald Publishing LimitedRobin BourgeoisKwamou Eva FeukeuGeci Karuri-SebinaForesightahead-of-printahead-of-print2022-11-0810.1108/FS-08-2022-0090https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/FS-08-2022-0090/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2022 Emerald Publishing Limited
Evaluation of forecasting models for improved passenger market management and rolling stock planning on Indian railwayshttps://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/FS-09-2022-0105/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestIndian railways (IR) is one of the largest railway networks in the world. As a part of its strategic development initiative, demand forecasting can be one of the indispensable activities, as it may provide basic inputs for planning and control of various activities such as coach production, planning new trains, coach augmentation and quota redistribution. The purpose of this study is to suggest an approach to demand forecasting for IR management. A case study is carried out, wherein several models i.e. automated autoregressive integrated moving average (auto-ARIMA), trigonometric regressors (TBATS), Holt–Winters additive model, Holt–Winters multiplicative model, simple exponential smoothing and simple moving average methods have been tested. As per requirements of IR management, the adopted research methodology is predominantly discursive, and the passenger reservation patterns over a five-year period covering a most representative train service for the past five years have been employed. The relative error matrix and the Akaike information criterion have been used to compare the performance of various models. The Diebold–Mariano test was conducted to examine the accuracy of models. The coach production strategy has been proposed on the most suitable auto-ARIMA model. Around 6,000 railway coaches per year have been produced in the past 3 years by IR. As per the coach production plan for the year 2023–2024, a tentative 6551 coaches of various types have been planned for production. The insights gained from this paper may facilitate need-based coach manufacturing and optimum utilization of the inventory. This study contributes to the literature on rail ticket demand forecasting and adds value to the process of rolling stock management. The proposed model can be a comprehensive decision-making tool to plan for new train services and assess the rolling stock production requirement on any railway system. The analysis may help in making demand predictions for the busy season, and the management can make important decisions about the pricing of services.Evaluation of forecasting models for improved passenger market management and rolling stock planning on Indian railways
Vinod Bhatia, K. Kalaivani
Foresight, Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print, pp.-

Indian railways (IR) is one of the largest railway networks in the world. As a part of its strategic development initiative, demand forecasting can be one of the indispensable activities, as it may provide basic inputs for planning and control of various activities such as coach production, planning new trains, coach augmentation and quota redistribution. The purpose of this study is to suggest an approach to demand forecasting for IR management.

A case study is carried out, wherein several models i.e. automated autoregressive integrated moving average (auto-ARIMA), trigonometric regressors (TBATS), Holt–Winters additive model, Holt–Winters multiplicative model, simple exponential smoothing and simple moving average methods have been tested. As per requirements of IR management, the adopted research methodology is predominantly discursive, and the passenger reservation patterns over a five-year period covering a most representative train service for the past five years have been employed. The relative error matrix and the Akaike information criterion have been used to compare the performance of various models. The Diebold–Mariano test was conducted to examine the accuracy of models.

The coach production strategy has been proposed on the most suitable auto-ARIMA model. Around 6,000 railway coaches per year have been produced in the past 3 years by IR. As per the coach production plan for the year 2023–2024, a tentative 6551 coaches of various types have been planned for production. The insights gained from this paper may facilitate need-based coach manufacturing and optimum utilization of the inventory.

This study contributes to the literature on rail ticket demand forecasting and adds value to the process of rolling stock management. The proposed model can be a comprehensive decision-making tool to plan for new train services and assess the rolling stock production requirement on any railway system. The analysis may help in making demand predictions for the busy season, and the management can make important decisions about the pricing of services.

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Evaluation of forecasting models for improved passenger market management and rolling stock planning on Indian railways10.1108/FS-09-2022-0105Foresight2024-03-20© 2024 Emerald Publishing LimitedVinod BhatiaK. KalaivaniForesightahead-of-printahead-of-print2024-03-2010.1108/FS-09-2022-0105https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/FS-09-2022-0105/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2024 Emerald Publishing Limited
Faraoyść: imagining alternative worlds from joyhttps://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/FS-10-2021-0208/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestFaraoyść is a translinguistic portmanteau neologism that describes the moment when oppressive systems are shaken and appear to be coming to an end, and joyful, liberated worlds feel within reach. The purpose of this research is to demonstrate that faraoyść helped participants helped participants to expand their situated imaginings, which increased their capacity to imagine decolonized worlds. This research was guided by faraoyść as a conceptual framework that explores the empirical experience of joy through collaborative world-building activities. These praxis-based exercises were tested in a series of workshops both at the 2020 UNESCO Futures Literacy Summit and in collaboration with Negligence Refugees from Lebanon. When activated by collaboratively designed speculative objects and stories generated through the lens of faraoyść, participants created spaces of rhizomatic world-building that allowed them to imagine beyond the boundaries of their situated imaginings. Once participants had mapped the ways their imaginations were limited by current colonial systems of power, they were able to reorient their roles and develop new means to act within decolonized systems. Faraoyść is a novel conceptual framework that contributes to current movements to decolonize futuring and foresight. This paper also introduces the concepts of rhizomatic world-building – an emergent approach to co-imagination, and situated imaginings, which are the systemic frameworks within which one imagines the ways the world has, is, will and must work. In practice, faraoyść is grounded in abundance and the power of liberatory joy to strengthen and celebrate local traditions, storytelling, world-building and community power.Faraoyść: imagining alternative worlds from joy
Anna Lathrop, Julia W. Szagdaj, Nour Abou Jaoude
Foresight, Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print, pp.-

Faraoyść is a translinguistic portmanteau neologism that describes the moment when oppressive systems are shaken and appear to be coming to an end, and joyful, liberated worlds feel within reach. The purpose of this research is to demonstrate that faraoyść helped participants helped participants to expand their situated imaginings, which increased their capacity to imagine decolonized worlds.

This research was guided by faraoyść as a conceptual framework that explores the empirical experience of joy through collaborative world-building activities. These praxis-based exercises were tested in a series of workshops both at the 2020 UNESCO Futures Literacy Summit and in collaboration with Negligence Refugees from Lebanon.

When activated by collaboratively designed speculative objects and stories generated through the lens of faraoyść, participants created spaces of rhizomatic world-building that allowed them to imagine beyond the boundaries of their situated imaginings. Once participants had mapped the ways their imaginations were limited by current colonial systems of power, they were able to reorient their roles and develop new means to act within decolonized systems.

Faraoyść is a novel conceptual framework that contributes to current movements to decolonize futuring and foresight. This paper also introduces the concepts of rhizomatic world-building – an emergent approach to co-imagination, and situated imaginings, which are the systemic frameworks within which one imagines the ways the world has, is, will and must work. In practice, faraoyść is grounded in abundance and the power of liberatory joy to strengthen and celebrate local traditions, storytelling, world-building and community power.

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Faraoyść: imagining alternative worlds from joy10.1108/FS-10-2021-0208Foresight2022-05-12© 2022 Emerald Publishing LimitedAnna LathropJulia W. SzagdajNour Abou JaoudeForesightahead-of-printahead-of-print2022-05-1210.1108/FS-10-2021-0208https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/FS-10-2021-0208/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2022 Emerald Publishing Limited
Diasporic futures: exploring evolutions of identity among Somali-Canadianshttps://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/FS-10-2021-0211/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestAmong the Somalis living in the diaspora, there is a growing number that are returning or are interested in returning to Somalia for personal, economic and political reasons. The purpose of this paper is to examine the potential impact the diaspora has on the future of Somalia by understanding the anticipatory assumptions held by young Somali-Canadians. This research will also examine the role that Soomaalinimo [1] (Somali identity) plays in the transnational ties that diasporic individuals keep with their country and its people. Using an indigenist research approach, this paper explores the evolution of Soomaalinimo over time in a way that is culturally informed and decolonial. Young Somali-Canadians in two cities (Toronto and Edmonton) were given an opportunity to define Soomaalinimo for themselves and create scenarios of how it might evolve in the future for their great-grandchildren. An analysis of these scenarios reveals anticipatory assumptions that shape how they think about the future. Three distinct futures scenarios emerged, and this research revealed three key anticipatory assumptions held by the participants: Somalia will always be home; returning to Somalia is important to maintain Soomaalinimo; and it is the responsibility of the previous generations to transmit Soomaalinimo to future generations. These anticipatory assumptions are examined and an analysis of the implications on decolonizing futures is presented. This study expands the conceptualization of the future of a country to include the diaspora and uses the concept of anticipatory assumptions to reveal some of the potential implications of this group.Diasporic futures: exploring evolutions of identity among Somali-Canadians
Liin Abdullahi Nur
Foresight, Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print, pp.-

Among the Somalis living in the diaspora, there is a growing number that are returning or are interested in returning to Somalia for personal, economic and political reasons. The purpose of this paper is to examine the potential impact the diaspora has on the future of Somalia by understanding the anticipatory assumptions held by young Somali-Canadians. This research will also examine the role that Soomaalinimo [1] (Somali identity) plays in the transnational ties that diasporic individuals keep with their country and its people.

Using an indigenist research approach, this paper explores the evolution of Soomaalinimo over time in a way that is culturally informed and decolonial. Young Somali-Canadians in two cities (Toronto and Edmonton) were given an opportunity to define Soomaalinimo for themselves and create scenarios of how it might evolve in the future for their great-grandchildren. An analysis of these scenarios reveals anticipatory assumptions that shape how they think about the future.

Three distinct futures scenarios emerged, and this research revealed three key anticipatory assumptions held by the participants: Somalia will always be home; returning to Somalia is important to maintain Soomaalinimo; and it is the responsibility of the previous generations to transmit Soomaalinimo to future generations. These anticipatory assumptions are examined and an analysis of the implications on decolonizing futures is presented.

This study expands the conceptualization of the future of a country to include the diaspora and uses the concept of anticipatory assumptions to reveal some of the potential implications of this group.

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Diasporic futures: exploring evolutions of identity among Somali-Canadians10.1108/FS-10-2021-0211Foresight2022-05-11© 2022 Emerald Publishing LimitedLiin Abdullahi NurForesightahead-of-printahead-of-print2022-05-1110.1108/FS-10-2021-0211https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/FS-10-2021-0211/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2022 Emerald Publishing Limited
The intersection of trauma-informed futures and the coloniality of sexuality: building futures consciousness with Kenya’s LGBTQI+ communityhttps://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/FS-10-2021-0219/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestThe purpose of this study is threefold: to pilot research on the role that trauma-healing and resilience play in developing futures consciousness/literacy; to explore how this informs the coloniality of sexuality; and to engage economically marginalised young gay and bisexual men in exploring future scenarios for the wider LGBTQI+ community in Kenya. This study used participatory action research to pilot the study. Workshop sessions focused on exploratory futures using an integral futures framework. Futures tools used consisted of the futures triangle, polak game and a two-by-two matrix scenario building exercise. Participants found that previous psychosocial support and mental health counselling enabled them to address past traumas, find healing and begin a productive journey of unpacking their understanding of agency and engage with developing personal and communal futures thinking – all prerequisites for effectively addressing decoloniality. This research represents the only study of the four-way intersection of trauma-healing, futures consciousness/literacy, the queer community in Africa and decoloniality and coloniality of sexuality.The intersection of trauma-informed futures and the coloniality of sexuality: building futures consciousness with Kenya’s LGBTQI+ community
Steven Lichty, Francis Kamunya
Foresight, Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print, pp.-

The purpose of this study is threefold: to pilot research on the role that trauma-healing and resilience play in developing futures consciousness/literacy; to explore how this informs the coloniality of sexuality; and to engage economically marginalised young gay and bisexual men in exploring future scenarios for the wider LGBTQI+ community in Kenya.

This study used participatory action research to pilot the study. Workshop sessions focused on exploratory futures using an integral futures framework. Futures tools used consisted of the futures triangle, polak game and a two-by-two matrix scenario building exercise.

Participants found that previous psychosocial support and mental health counselling enabled them to address past traumas, find healing and begin a productive journey of unpacking their understanding of agency and engage with developing personal and communal futures thinking – all prerequisites for effectively addressing decoloniality.

This research represents the only study of the four-way intersection of trauma-healing, futures consciousness/literacy, the queer community in Africa and decoloniality and coloniality of sexuality.

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The intersection of trauma-informed futures and the coloniality of sexuality: building futures consciousness with Kenya’s LGBTQI+ community10.1108/FS-10-2021-0219Foresight2022-07-14© 2022 Emerald Publishing LimitedSteven LichtyFrancis KamunyaForesightahead-of-printahead-of-print2022-07-1410.1108/FS-10-2021-0219https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/FS-10-2021-0219/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2022 Emerald Publishing Limited
Antecedents of big data analytics (BDA) adoption in private firms: a sequential explanatory approachhttps://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/FS-10-2022-0114/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestThis study aims to examine the key antecedents influencing the private firm’s intention to adopt big data analytics (BDA) in developing economies. To do so, the study follows the sequential explanatory approach. To test the hypothesized model that draws on the technology–organization–environment (TOE) framework paired with the diffusion of innovation (DOI) theory, a purposive sampling technique was applied to gather data from 156 IT and management domain experts from the private firms that intend to adopt BDA and operate in Pakistan’s service industry, including telecommunication, information technology, agriculture, and e-commerce. The data were analysed using the partial least squares structural equations modelling (PLS-SEM) technique and complemented with qualitative analysis of 10 semi-structured interviews in NVIVO 12 based on grounded theory. The empirical findings revealed that the two constructs – perceived benefits and top management support – are the powerful drivers of a firm’s intention to adopt BDA in the private sector, whereas IT infrastructure, data quality, technological complexity and financial readiness, along with the moderators, BDA adoption of competitors and government policy and regulation, do not significantly influence the intention. In addition, the qualitative analysis validates and further complements the SEM findings. Unlike the previous studies on technology adoption, this study proposed a unique research model with contextualized indicators to measure the constructs relevant to private firms, based on the TOE framework and DOI theory, to investigate the causal relationship between drivers and intention. Furthermore, the findings of PLS-SEM were complemented by qualitative analysis to validate the causation. The findings of this study have both theoretical and practical implications.Antecedents of big data analytics (BDA) adoption in private firms: a sequential explanatory approach
Javaria Waqar, Osman Sadiq Paracha
Foresight, Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print, pp.-

This study aims to examine the key antecedents influencing the private firm’s intention to adopt big data analytics (BDA) in developing economies. To do so, the study follows the sequential explanatory approach.

To test the hypothesized model that draws on the technology–organization–environment (TOE) framework paired with the diffusion of innovation (DOI) theory, a purposive sampling technique was applied to gather data from 156 IT and management domain experts from the private firms that intend to adopt BDA and operate in Pakistan’s service industry, including telecommunication, information technology, agriculture, and e-commerce. The data were analysed using the partial least squares structural equations modelling (PLS-SEM) technique and complemented with qualitative analysis of 10 semi-structured interviews in NVIVO 12 based on grounded theory.

The empirical findings revealed that the two constructs – perceived benefits and top management support – are the powerful drivers of a firm’s intention to adopt BDA in the private sector, whereas IT infrastructure, data quality, technological complexity and financial readiness, along with the moderators, BDA adoption of competitors and government policy and regulation, do not significantly influence the intention. In addition, the qualitative analysis validates and further complements the SEM findings.

Unlike the previous studies on technology adoption, this study proposed a unique research model with contextualized indicators to measure the constructs relevant to private firms, based on the TOE framework and DOI theory, to investigate the causal relationship between drivers and intention. Furthermore, the findings of PLS-SEM were complemented by qualitative analysis to validate the causation. The findings of this study have both theoretical and practical implications.

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Antecedents of big data analytics (BDA) adoption in private firms: a sequential explanatory approach10.1108/FS-10-2022-0114Foresight2023-08-02© 2023 Emerald Publishing LimitedJavaria WaqarOsman Sadiq ParachaForesightahead-of-printahead-of-print2023-08-0210.1108/FS-10-2022-0114https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/FS-10-2022-0114/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2023 Emerald Publishing Limited
Setting S&T perspective priorities in an era of complexity and uncertainty: a case for megacitieshttps://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/FS-10-2023-0215/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestThe purpose of this study is to create a methodological approach for identifying priority areas for science and technology (S&T) development and its empirical application within the city of Moscow. This research uncovers a wide range of multicultural and multidisciplinary global trends that will affect the development of major cities in an era of complexity and uncertainty, including the inherent complexity of urban contexts, demographic and socioeconomic trends, as well as scientific and ecological factors. The methodological approach is based on classic foresight instruments. Its novelty lays in the blending of qualitative and quantitative methods specially selected as the most appropriate for the identification of S&T areas in an era of complexity and uncertainty, including horizon scanning, bibliometric analysis, expert surveys and the construction of composite indexes with respect to the scope and resources of the research and the selected object for empirical application – Moscow, which is one of the world’s largest megacities. The analysis was performed for the period of 2009–2018 and expert procedures took place in 2019. As a result, 25 global trends were identified, evaluated and discussed over the course of an expert survey and subsequent expert events. Ten priority areas of S&T development were determined, including 62 technological sub-areas within them and the most important market niches for all identified technological sub-areas, which could be useful for the world’s megacities. The results of this study are illustrated using the construction sector. Based on the conducted research and results, a list of recommendations on S&T policy measures and instruments were suggested, including the creation of the Moscow Innovation Cluster, which by the end of 2023 contained more than 6,000 projects and initiatives, selected using the findings of this investigation. This research contributes to the existing literature and research agenda of setting priorities for S&T development and shows how it can be done for a megacity. The blended foresight methodology that was created within the study satisfies the criteria of scientific originality, is repeatable for any interested researcher, is applicable to any other city in the world and demonstrates its high efficiency in empirical application. It could be used for creating new agenda items in S&T policy, setting S&T priorities for a megacity and integrating the results into decision-making processes. This study provides recommendations on the further implementation of the designed methodology and results into a policymaking system. Moreover, the example of the Moscow Innovation Cluster, which was created based on the results of our research, demonstrates these recommendations’ practical significance in real life, which is quite valuable. The limitation of this study is that it is not devoted to urban planning issues directly or the promotion of R&D areas; it is about setting promising S&T priorities in an era of complexity and uncertainty for megacities.Setting S&T perspective priorities in an era of complexity and uncertainty: a case for megacities
Alexander Chulok, Maxim Kotsemir, Yadviga Radomirova, Sergey Shashnov
Foresight, Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print, pp.-

The purpose of this study is to create a methodological approach for identifying priority areas for science and technology (S&T) development and its empirical application within the city of Moscow. This research uncovers a wide range of multicultural and multidisciplinary global trends that will affect the development of major cities in an era of complexity and uncertainty, including the inherent complexity of urban contexts, demographic and socioeconomic trends, as well as scientific and ecological factors.

The methodological approach is based on classic foresight instruments. Its novelty lays in the blending of qualitative and quantitative methods specially selected as the most appropriate for the identification of S&T areas in an era of complexity and uncertainty, including horizon scanning, bibliometric analysis, expert surveys and the construction of composite indexes with respect to the scope and resources of the research and the selected object for empirical application – Moscow, which is one of the world’s largest megacities. The analysis was performed for the period of 2009–2018 and expert procedures took place in 2019.

As a result, 25 global trends were identified, evaluated and discussed over the course of an expert survey and subsequent expert events. Ten priority areas of S&T development were determined, including 62 technological sub-areas within them and the most important market niches for all identified technological sub-areas, which could be useful for the world’s megacities. The results of this study are illustrated using the construction sector. Based on the conducted research and results, a list of recommendations on S&T policy measures and instruments were suggested, including the creation of the Moscow Innovation Cluster, which by the end of 2023 contained more than 6,000 projects and initiatives, selected using the findings of this investigation.

This research contributes to the existing literature and research agenda of setting priorities for S&T development and shows how it can be done for a megacity. The blended foresight methodology that was created within the study satisfies the criteria of scientific originality, is repeatable for any interested researcher, is applicable to any other city in the world and demonstrates its high efficiency in empirical application. It could be used for creating new agenda items in S&T policy, setting S&T priorities for a megacity and integrating the results into decision-making processes. This study provides recommendations on the further implementation of the designed methodology and results into a policymaking system. Moreover, the example of the Moscow Innovation Cluster, which was created based on the results of our research, demonstrates these recommendations’ practical significance in real life, which is quite valuable. The limitation of this study is that it is not devoted to urban planning issues directly or the promotion of R&D areas; it is about setting promising S&T priorities in an era of complexity and uncertainty for megacities.

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Setting S&T perspective priorities in an era of complexity and uncertainty: a case for megacities10.1108/FS-10-2023-0215Foresight2024-02-28© 2024 Emerald Publishing LimitedAlexander ChulokMaxim KotsemirYadviga RadomirovaSergey ShashnovForesightahead-of-printahead-of-print2024-02-2810.1108/FS-10-2023-0215https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/FS-10-2023-0215/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2024 Emerald Publishing Limited
Uraia, Lugha na Haki za Kidijitali: umuhimu wa lugha katika harakati za kuondoa ukoloni katika teknolojiahttps://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/FS-11-2021-0222/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestManeno mengi yanayohusu haki za binadamu na haki za kiteknolojia hayajatafsiriwa katika lugha ya Kiswahili. Kwa hivyo, wataalamu wa teknolojia na watetezi wa haki za kidijitali hutumia maneno ya Kiingereza – hata bila utohozi – wanapozungumzia haki za kiteknolojia. Hali hii ya mambo inachangia udhoofu fulani katika utetezi wa haki za kidijitali kwani wanaojaribu kueleza jamii umuhimu wa haki hizi hulazimishwa kutegemea msamiati wa Kiingereza usiyo na msingi au viungo na lugha ya Kiswahili Katika makala hii, tutazungumzia umuhimu wa kukaribisha watu kutumia lugha za Kiafrika kwenye mtandao. Kiswahili ni lugha ya Kiafrika inayozungumzwa katika eneo zaidi sana duniani. Karibu watu milioni mia moja na arobaini Afrika mashariki wanazungumza Kiswahili kama lugha yao ya kwanza au ya pili, miongoni mwao Wakenya na Watanzania, wenyeji wa nchi ambamo Kiswahili ni lugha ya kitaifa. Tena kuna historia ndefu ya kutumiwa kwa lugha ya Kiswahili katika uandishi, uchapishaji na ubunifu wa utamaduni wa kisasa. Kiswahili pekee yake ndiyo lugha ya asili ya Kiafrika inayotumika kama lugha ya maalum ya Umoja wa Mataifa za Kiafrika. Hata hivyo, kwa upande wa matumizi ya Kiswahili, hasa kwenye mada ya teknolojia, Kiswahili imewachwa nyuma. Zaidi ya maneno rasmi, uwepo wa lugha za Kiafrika ni muhimu kuimarisha jumuiya za Kiafrika mtandaoni kwani lugha inalenga sana haki na utambulisho wa watu. Miradi za kutafsiri maneno za kiteknolojia katika lugha ya Kiswahili inahimiza jumuiya za Afrika Mashariki kuunda jamii inayosimamia matakwa yao vyema. Makala hii basi inazingatia umuhimu wa lugha kwenye kuunda jamii na katika hatua za kuondoa mbinu za kikoloni mtandaoni ili wenyeji wa Afrika Mashariki wajione mtandaoni kwa ujumla wao wote. Makala pia itazingatia semiotiki ya lugha katika ubunifu wa teknolojia, na umuhimu wa kutafsiri jamii ya lugha ya Kiswahili katika harakati za kuondoa ukoloni katika ubunifu huu. Lakini sio tu kwamba lugha ya Kiswahili ndio pekee inayoweza kuondoa mbinu za kikoloni mtandaoni, kwani pia lugha hiyo ina ishara za kutawalwa kwa jamii fulani. Bali makala hii inatumia mfano wa Kiswahili kuhimiza utumiaji wa lugha za kiasili au za kimama mtandaoni ili kulinda mustakabali wa kidijitali wa umma. Umuhimu wa makala hii ni kuashiria jipya umuhimu wa lugha katika harakati za kuendeleza haki za kidijitali na hasa kuondoa mbinu za kikoloni kwenye teknolojia, swala lisilowahijadiliwa katika lugha ya Kiswahili.Uraia, Lugha na Haki za Kidijitali: umuhimu wa lugha katika harakati za kuondoa ukoloni katika teknolojia
Nanjala Nyabola
Foresight, Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print, pp.-

Maneno mengi yanayohusu haki za binadamu na haki za kiteknolojia hayajatafsiriwa katika lugha ya Kiswahili. Kwa hivyo, wataalamu wa teknolojia na watetezi wa haki za kidijitali hutumia maneno ya Kiingereza – hata bila utohozi – wanapozungumzia haki za kiteknolojia. Hali hii ya mambo inachangia udhoofu fulani katika utetezi wa haki za kidijitali kwani wanaojaribu kueleza jamii umuhimu wa haki hizi hulazimishwa kutegemea msamiati wa Kiingereza usiyo na msingi au viungo na lugha ya Kiswahili Katika makala hii, tutazungumzia umuhimu wa kukaribisha watu kutumia lugha za Kiafrika kwenye mtandao.

Kiswahili ni lugha ya Kiafrika inayozungumzwa katika eneo zaidi sana duniani. Karibu watu milioni mia moja na arobaini Afrika mashariki wanazungumza Kiswahili kama lugha yao ya kwanza au ya pili, miongoni mwao Wakenya na Watanzania, wenyeji wa nchi ambamo Kiswahili ni lugha ya kitaifa. Tena kuna historia ndefu ya kutumiwa kwa lugha ya Kiswahili katika uandishi, uchapishaji na ubunifu wa utamaduni wa kisasa. Kiswahili pekee yake ndiyo lugha ya asili ya Kiafrika inayotumika kama lugha ya maalum ya Umoja wa Mataifa za Kiafrika. Hata hivyo, kwa upande wa matumizi ya Kiswahili, hasa kwenye mada ya teknolojia, Kiswahili imewachwa nyuma.

Zaidi ya maneno rasmi, uwepo wa lugha za Kiafrika ni muhimu kuimarisha jumuiya za Kiafrika mtandaoni kwani lugha inalenga sana haki na utambulisho wa watu. Miradi za kutafsiri maneno za kiteknolojia katika lugha ya Kiswahili inahimiza jumuiya za Afrika Mashariki kuunda jamii inayosimamia matakwa yao vyema. Makala hii basi inazingatia umuhimu wa lugha kwenye kuunda jamii na katika hatua za kuondoa mbinu za kikoloni mtandaoni ili wenyeji wa Afrika Mashariki wajione mtandaoni kwa ujumla wao wote. Makala pia itazingatia semiotiki ya lugha katika ubunifu wa teknolojia, na umuhimu wa kutafsiri jamii ya lugha ya Kiswahili katika harakati za kuondoa ukoloni katika ubunifu huu. Lakini sio tu kwamba lugha ya Kiswahili ndio pekee inayoweza kuondoa mbinu za kikoloni mtandaoni, kwani pia lugha hiyo ina ishara za kutawalwa kwa jamii fulani. Bali makala hii inatumia mfano wa Kiswahili kuhimiza utumiaji wa lugha za kiasili au za kimama mtandaoni ili kulinda mustakabali wa kidijitali wa umma.

Umuhimu wa makala hii ni kuashiria jipya umuhimu wa lugha katika harakati za kuendeleza haki za kidijitali na hasa kuondoa mbinu za kikoloni kwenye teknolojia, swala lisilowahijadiliwa katika lugha ya Kiswahili.

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Uraia, Lugha na Haki za Kidijitali: umuhimu wa lugha katika harakati za kuondoa ukoloni katika teknolojia10.1108/FS-11-2021-0222Foresight2022-10-13© 2022 Emerald Publishing LimitedNanjala NyabolaForesightahead-of-printahead-of-print2022-10-1310.1108/FS-11-2021-0222https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/FS-11-2021-0222/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2022 Emerald Publishing Limited
The future as a public good: decolonising the future through anticipatory participatory action researchhttps://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/FS-11-2021-0225/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestThe purpose of this paper is to nurture reflections on the colonization of the future in the present with a particular focus on Africa. This paper aims at exploring how participatory research and particularly anticipatory action research can contribute to a decolonising process. Considering the future as a public good, this paper develops a reflection on the colonization processes that can turn it into a club or a private good. This paper mobilizes the notions of participatory knowledge production and local action research as a way to decolonize the future and empower imagination. This paper revisits the tenets of participatory action research as a means to achieve this objective and discusses the main features of a non-colonial anticipatory action research in the context of African futures. This paper highlights the challenges associated with connecting anticipatory endeavours focusing on action research, the creation of collective intelligence and co-design, with the intention of encouraging the decolonisation process. It includes design principles and anticipates a possible process of counter-decolonization. This is a conceptual paper, which does not provide field-tested evidence. Yet, the authors hope it serves as an input enabling to design methodologies that will prevent the colonisation of the future when engaging in future-oriented research activities in Africa and elsewhere. This paper provides an integral approach to the colonisation of the future, as a renewed old question. This paper also connects this process with a reflection on the nature of what could be non-colonizing anticipatory action research.The future as a public good: decolonising the future through anticipatory participatory action research
Robin Bourgeois, Geci Karuri-Sebina, Kwamou Eva Feukeu
Foresight, Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print, pp.-

The purpose of this paper is to nurture reflections on the colonization of the future in the present with a particular focus on Africa. This paper aims at exploring how participatory research and particularly anticipatory action research can contribute to a decolonising process.

Considering the future as a public good, this paper develops a reflection on the colonization processes that can turn it into a club or a private good. This paper mobilizes the notions of participatory knowledge production and local action research as a way to decolonize the future and empower imagination. This paper revisits the tenets of participatory action research as a means to achieve this objective and discusses the main features of a non-colonial anticipatory action research in the context of African futures.

This paper highlights the challenges associated with connecting anticipatory endeavours focusing on action research, the creation of collective intelligence and co-design, with the intention of encouraging the decolonisation process. It includes design principles and anticipates a possible process of counter-decolonization.

This is a conceptual paper, which does not provide field-tested evidence. Yet, the authors hope it serves as an input enabling to design methodologies that will prevent the colonisation of the future when engaging in future-oriented research activities in Africa and elsewhere.

This paper provides an integral approach to the colonisation of the future, as a renewed old question. This paper also connects this process with a reflection on the nature of what could be non-colonizing anticipatory action research.

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The future as a public good: decolonising the future through anticipatory participatory action research10.1108/FS-11-2021-0225Foresight2022-08-01© 2022 Emerald Publishing LimitedRobin BourgeoisGeci Karuri-SebinaKwamou Eva FeukeuForesightahead-of-printahead-of-print2022-08-0110.1108/FS-11-2021-0225https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/FS-11-2021-0225/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2022 Emerald Publishing Limited
Social Actors constructing community visions in the Global Southhttps://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/FS-11-2021-0235/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestThis paper aims to identify the aspects that social actors consider in constructing shared futures in communities. In their application in emerging countries, especially in the Global South, the socio-cultural particularities of communities and actors are often overlooked, generating friction or social conflicts. This paper presents two critical elements contributing to the debate: the importance of understanding Social Actors within a model of generating community futures in emerging countries; and the relevant factors that influence the actors in an exercise of building futures in communities. From qualitative research, a case study of community foresight of the future was used: the future of Puerto Gaitán 2037 (Meta, Colombia). A method of information collection was applied from observation of the participants and analysis of documentation. The analysis method was the deductive qualitative analysis (DQA). The participation of the social actors presents a model of five relevant elements that influence the actors for the successful construction of futures in communities. The first four factors, revealed from theory, are presented in real life. Likewise, a fifth factor is proven, Long-term thinking, which is evidenced by a model of application of futures studies for the specific context, applicable to the case of communities in countries of the Global South. Although there are isolated examples of recommendations regarding studies to generate the future of communities, to the best of the author’s knowledge, this is the first study that presents concrete factors that contribute to guiding the construction of community futures from social actors, especially in countries of the Global South such as Colombia. It is also one of the first studies to use the DQA as a method of analysis in a topic of futures studies.Social Actors constructing community visions in the Global South
Fredy Vargas-Lama
Foresight, Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print, pp.-

This paper aims to identify the aspects that social actors consider in constructing shared futures in communities. In their application in emerging countries, especially in the Global South, the socio-cultural particularities of communities and actors are often overlooked, generating friction or social conflicts. This paper presents two critical elements contributing to the debate: the importance of understanding Social Actors within a model of generating community futures in emerging countries; and the relevant factors that influence the actors in an exercise of building futures in communities.

From qualitative research, a case study of community foresight of the future was used: the future of Puerto Gaitán 2037 (Meta, Colombia). A method of information collection was applied from observation of the participants and analysis of documentation. The analysis method was the deductive qualitative analysis (DQA).

The participation of the social actors presents a model of five relevant elements that influence the actors for the successful construction of futures in communities. The first four factors, revealed from theory, are presented in real life. Likewise, a fifth factor is proven, Long-term thinking, which is evidenced by a model of application of futures studies for the specific context, applicable to the case of communities in countries of the Global South.

Although there are isolated examples of recommendations regarding studies to generate the future of communities, to the best of the author’s knowledge, this is the first study that presents concrete factors that contribute to guiding the construction of community futures from social actors, especially in countries of the Global South such as Colombia. It is also one of the first studies to use the DQA as a method of analysis in a topic of futures studies.

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Social Actors constructing community visions in the Global South10.1108/FS-11-2021-0235Foresight2022-06-30© 2022 Emerald Publishing LimitedFredy Vargas-LamaForesightahead-of-printahead-of-print2022-06-3010.1108/FS-11-2021-0235https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/FS-11-2021-0235/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2022 Emerald Publishing Limited
Awakening the unconscious imagination and igniting ethical aspirations: the case of Foresight via the engaged foresight approachhttps://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/FS-11-2021-0237/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestThis paper aims to introduce, unpack, explore, make sense and share Hiraya Foresight via the Engaged Foresight approach as a futures concept, framework and methodology to reconceptualize foresight and reframe anticipatory processes to enable the self and communities to reimagine visions of the future. This indigenous foresight process offers to strip the husk and break the shell of conscious, colonial anticipation and reveal and liberate unconscious imagination that enables ethical aspirations to emerge. This paper introduces and examines the context, purpose and process of the four waves of the Hiraya Foresight Framework via the Engaged Foresight approach. These were constructed through the use of the Engaged Foresight approach, through workshops, a literature review and an action–learning approach. The first wave, lawak, looks into the breadth of foresight. The second wave, lalim, looks into the depth of foresight. Tayog, the third wave, looks into the peak of foresight. Finally, the fourth wave of foresight kababaang-loob contemplates the nature, values and wisdom of foresight. This paper shares the processes, experiences and impacts through five case studies where the Hiraya Foresight Framework via the Engaged Foresight approach was applied. This paper shares the impacts of Hiraya Foresight in democratizing and indigenizing futures literacy. This paper describes and offers Hiraya Foresight via the Engaged Foresight approach as an indigenous approach to decolonize futures studies and foresight practice.Awakening the unconscious imagination and igniting ethical aspirations: the case of Foresight via the engaged foresight approach
Shermon Ortega Cruz, Nicole Anne Kahn-Parreño
Foresight, Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print, pp.-

This paper aims to introduce, unpack, explore, make sense and share Hiraya Foresight via the Engaged Foresight approach as a futures concept, framework and methodology to reconceptualize foresight and reframe anticipatory processes to enable the self and communities to reimagine visions of the future. This indigenous foresight process offers to strip the husk and break the shell of conscious, colonial anticipation and reveal and liberate unconscious imagination that enables ethical aspirations to emerge.

This paper introduces and examines the context, purpose and process of the four waves of the Hiraya Foresight Framework via the Engaged Foresight approach. These were constructed through the use of the Engaged Foresight approach, through workshops, a literature review and an action–learning approach. The first wave, lawak, looks into the breadth of foresight. The second wave, lalim, looks into the depth of foresight. Tayog, the third wave, looks into the peak of foresight. Finally, the fourth wave of foresight kababaang-loob contemplates the nature, values and wisdom of foresight.

This paper shares the processes, experiences and impacts through five case studies where the Hiraya Foresight Framework via the Engaged Foresight approach was applied. This paper shares the impacts of Hiraya Foresight in democratizing and indigenizing futures literacy.

This paper describes and offers Hiraya Foresight via the Engaged Foresight approach as an indigenous approach to decolonize futures studies and foresight practice.

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Awakening the unconscious imagination and igniting ethical aspirations: the case of Foresight via the engaged foresight approach10.1108/FS-11-2021-0237Foresight2022-07-12© 2022 Emerald Publishing LimitedShermon Ortega CruzNicole Anne Kahn-ParreñoForesightahead-of-printahead-of-print2022-07-1210.1108/FS-11-2021-0237https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/FS-11-2021-0237/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2022 Emerald Publishing Limited
An ethical norm of long-term human survival with universal dignityhttps://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/FS-11-2022-0142/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestThe purpose of this study is to create an ethical norm that will help guide the human race toward long-term survival. The project posits a new societal ethical norm designed around a fundamental principle: the long-term survival of the human race with individual dignity. This study examines the requirements of the new norm and what is needed to achieve that goal. There are three types of organizations that have the organizational and economic capacity to be responsible for future outcomes: governments, religions and corporations. These three types of organizations must act as if they have a moral compass that will compel them to develop and uphold the requirements for the survival of humanity with individual dignity. The analysis shows that a new, broader ethical norm must be established, and this norm implies that large organizations must act with a future embracing ethical behavior. This study generates specific pathways for example: governments should adopt the just war principles and prohibitions on governments or other institutions from teaching any form of class superiority. These and other pathways are designed to diffuse threats to the fundamental principle. The fundamental principle includes universal human dignity. This means that the notion of individual dignity must be defined or understood, and the requirements to attain this goal must be identified. This project takes concepts from long-termism, forward-looking collective responsibility, corporate social responsibility and the global catastrophic risk institute to advocate for a new ethical norm.An ethical norm of long-term human survival with universal dignity
Gerald McNerney
Foresight, Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print, pp.-

The purpose of this study is to create an ethical norm that will help guide the human race toward long-term survival.

The project posits a new societal ethical norm designed around a fundamental principle: the long-term survival of the human race with individual dignity. This study examines the requirements of the new norm and what is needed to achieve that goal.

There are three types of organizations that have the organizational and economic capacity to be responsible for future outcomes: governments, religions and corporations. These three types of organizations must act as if they have a moral compass that will compel them to develop and uphold the requirements for the survival of humanity with individual dignity.

The analysis shows that a new, broader ethical norm must be established, and this norm implies that large organizations must act with a future embracing ethical behavior.

This study generates specific pathways for example: governments should adopt the just war principles and prohibitions on governments or other institutions from teaching any form of class superiority. These and other pathways are designed to diffuse threats to the fundamental principle.

The fundamental principle includes universal human dignity. This means that the notion of individual dignity must be defined or understood, and the requirements to attain this goal must be identified.

This project takes concepts from long-termism, forward-looking collective responsibility, corporate social responsibility and the global catastrophic risk institute to advocate for a new ethical norm.

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An ethical norm of long-term human survival with universal dignity10.1108/FS-11-2022-0142Foresight2024-01-30© 2024 Emerald Publishing LimitedGerald McNerneyForesightahead-of-printahead-of-print2024-01-3010.1108/FS-11-2022-0142https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/FS-11-2022-0142/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2024 Emerald Publishing Limited
Future study of revenue sources in the social security organization with the scenario planning approachhttps://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/FS-11-2022-0165/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestThe purpose of this study is to identify the drivers and future scenarios of Iran’s Social Security Organization. The research is applied in terms of orientation and mixed in terms of methodology. In this research, the methods of theme analysis, root definitions, fuzzy Delphi and Cocoso were used. The theoretical population is the managers and senior experts of the social security organization, and the sampling method was done in a judgmental way. The tools of data collection were interviews and questionnaires. The interview tool was used to extract the main and subdrivers of the research and develop the scenarios. Through theme analysis, 35 subdrivers were extracted in the form of economic, sociocultural, financial and investment, policy, marketing, environmental and legal themes. Due to the large number of subdrivers, these factors were screened with fuzzy Delphi. Eleven drivers had defuzzied coefficient higher than 0.7 and were selected for final prioritization. The final drivers were prioritized with the CoCoSo technique, and the two drivers of social security holdings governance and state of government revenues had the highest priority. Based on these two drivers, four scenarios of prosperity, resilient social security, unstable development and collapse have been developed. Some of the suggestions of the research are: using the capacity of FinTechs and financial startups to invest the government revenues of the organization, using digital technologies such as business intelligence for more efficient decisions and developing corporate governance in the organization.Future study of revenue sources in the social security organization with the scenario planning approach
Seyed Hadi Arabi, Mohammad Hasan Maleki, Hamed Ansari
Foresight, Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print, pp.-

The purpose of this study is to identify the drivers and future scenarios of Iran’s Social Security Organization.

The research is applied in terms of orientation and mixed in terms of methodology. In this research, the methods of theme analysis, root definitions, fuzzy Delphi and Cocoso were used. The theoretical population is the managers and senior experts of the social security organization, and the sampling method was done in a judgmental way. The tools of data collection were interviews and questionnaires. The interview tool was used to extract the main and subdrivers of the research and develop the scenarios.

Through theme analysis, 35 subdrivers were extracted in the form of economic, sociocultural, financial and investment, policy, marketing, environmental and legal themes. Due to the large number of subdrivers, these factors were screened with fuzzy Delphi. Eleven drivers had defuzzied coefficient higher than 0.7 and were selected for final prioritization. The final drivers were prioritized with the CoCoSo technique, and the two drivers of social security holdings governance and state of government revenues had the highest priority. Based on these two drivers, four scenarios of prosperity, resilient social security, unstable development and collapse have been developed.

Some of the suggestions of the research are: using the capacity of FinTechs and financial startups to invest the government revenues of the organization, using digital technologies such as business intelligence for more efficient decisions and developing corporate governance in the organization.

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Future study of revenue sources in the social security organization with the scenario planning approach10.1108/FS-11-2022-0165Foresight2024-03-15© 2024 Emerald Publishing LimitedSeyed Hadi ArabiMohammad Hasan MalekiHamed AnsariForesightahead-of-printahead-of-print2024-03-1510.1108/FS-11-2022-0165https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/FS-11-2022-0165/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2024 Emerald Publishing Limited
Situating futures literacies in the Colombian educational system: a decolonizing theoretical modelhttps://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/FS-12-2021-0246/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestThis paper aims to present a theoretical model for restructuring Colombia’s educational initiatives in response to current socioeconomic needs. More equitable and decolonized education could help learners decouple their capacities to imagine the future from colonialized paradigms, thereby opening spaces for more active engagement in their own futures. The authors take a critical, postmodern approach focused on empowering people to transcend constraints from a colonial past and recognizing that the purpose of knowledge, although reflecting power and social relationships, is to help people improve society. Notions of situated and futures literacies nourish an approach toward a decolonized and glocalized educational model. The current Colombian educational system tends to favor a single focus – local, national or international – at the expense of the others. The authors argue that educational policy and planning should account for three realms of knowledge: locally situated literacies, nationally situated literacies and globally situated literacies. Deconstructing obsolete and colonized methodologies could not only help prepare Colombian learners for active engagement both within and beyond their modern-day borders but could also help transform other educational systems originally designed to support societies and economies that no longer exist, including those of the Global North.Situating futures literacies in the Colombian educational system: a decolonizing theoretical model
Carl Edlund Anderson, Rosa Dene David
Foresight, Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print, pp.-

This paper aims to present a theoretical model for restructuring Colombia’s educational initiatives in response to current socioeconomic needs. More equitable and decolonized education could help learners decouple their capacities to imagine the future from colonialized paradigms, thereby opening spaces for more active engagement in their own futures.

The authors take a critical, postmodern approach focused on empowering people to transcend constraints from a colonial past and recognizing that the purpose of knowledge, although reflecting power and social relationships, is to help people improve society. Notions of situated and futures literacies nourish an approach toward a decolonized and glocalized educational model.

The current Colombian educational system tends to favor a single focus – local, national or international – at the expense of the others. The authors argue that educational policy and planning should account for three realms of knowledge: locally situated literacies, nationally situated literacies and globally situated literacies.

Deconstructing obsolete and colonized methodologies could not only help prepare Colombian learners for active engagement both within and beyond their modern-day borders but could also help transform other educational systems originally designed to support societies and economies that no longer exist, including those of the Global North.

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Situating futures literacies in the Colombian educational system: a decolonizing theoretical model10.1108/FS-12-2021-0246Foresight2022-07-15© 2022 Emerald Publishing LimitedCarl Edlund AndersonRosa Dene DavidForesightahead-of-printahead-of-print2022-07-1510.1108/FS-12-2021-0246https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/FS-12-2021-0246/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2022 Emerald Publishing Limited
Building a sustainable future: ideas and perceptions of university staffhttps://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/FS-12-2022-0170/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestThe universities of applied sciences (UASs) in Finland play a significant role in providing skilled professionals with higher education degrees to meet the needs of the labor market and society as a whole. The purpose of this study is to determine what the staff in these universities consider the role of UASs in promoting sustainable development (SD) to be. The qualitative research data were collected from a survey distributed among UAS staff in the spring of 2021. The data consisted of 831 responses to an open-ended question on how UASs could promote SD and a sense of responsibility for it. The method used for the data analysis was theory-led content analysis. Staff at UASs are actively promoting SD in higher education and have many ideas on how to do this, which is encouraging. With further processing of these ideas and support from management, UASs can play a more important role in sustainability work and set an example for how to build a sustainable future. The promotion of SD is a timely topic, and examples of SD implementation and good practices can promote discussion of the role of higher education institutions in SD promotion and highlight collective ways to promote it.Building a sustainable future: ideas and perceptions of university staff
Tuija Koivunen, Taru Konst, Mervi Friman
Foresight, Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print, pp.-

The universities of applied sciences (UASs) in Finland play a significant role in providing skilled professionals with higher education degrees to meet the needs of the labor market and society as a whole. The purpose of this study is to determine what the staff in these universities consider the role of UASs in promoting sustainable development (SD) to be.

The qualitative research data were collected from a survey distributed among UAS staff in the spring of 2021. The data consisted of 831 responses to an open-ended question on how UASs could promote SD and a sense of responsibility for it. The method used for the data analysis was theory-led content analysis.

Staff at UASs are actively promoting SD in higher education and have many ideas on how to do this, which is encouraging. With further processing of these ideas and support from management, UASs can play a more important role in sustainability work and set an example for how to build a sustainable future.

The promotion of SD is a timely topic, and examples of SD implementation and good practices can promote discussion of the role of higher education institutions in SD promotion and highlight collective ways to promote it.

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Building a sustainable future: ideas and perceptions of university staff10.1108/FS-12-2022-0170Foresight2023-11-14© 2023 Tuija Koivunen, Taru Konst and Mervi Friman.Tuija KoivunenTaru KonstMervi FrimanForesightahead-of-printahead-of-print2023-11-1410.1108/FS-12-2022-0170https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/FS-12-2022-0170/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2023 Tuija Koivunen, Taru Konst and Mervi Friman.
Resilient higher educational institutions in a world of digital transformationhttps://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/FS-12-2022-0186/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestResilient higher education institutions can endure, develop and compete in the face of ambiguous, challenging and pandemic situations. In a world of digital transformation, organizational resilience is crucial. Prior research has paid less attention to achieving organizational resilience. This study aims to use the digital capability theory to address this research gap and determine adaptive culture’s direct and indirect influence on organizational resilience. The impact of adaptive culture on organizational resilience is being investigated via the underlying mechanism of digital transformation. The data was gathered using a cross-sectional, self-administered questionnaire with convenience sampling techniques from higher educational institutions in South Asia’s context. The direct and indirect effects were analyzed using SEM from 294 teaching faculty members. The findings show a significant positive association between the study’s constructs. The association between adaptive culture and organizational resilience was partially mediated by digital transformation. The findings provide important insights for policymakers, academics and higher education institutions in developing adaptable cultures to achieve organizational resilience, primarily through digital transformation. Few research studies have investigated a direct relationship among the constructs of the study to the best of the authors’ knowledge. It is the first study to investigate the role of digital transformation as the underlying mechanism between adaptive culture and organizational resilience. Theoretical contributions, practical implications and future research directions have all been presented.Resilient higher educational institutions in a world of digital transformation
Maryam Gull, Shazia Parveen, Ahmad Rizki Sridadi
Foresight, Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print, pp.-

Resilient higher education institutions can endure, develop and compete in the face of ambiguous, challenging and pandemic situations. In a world of digital transformation, organizational resilience is crucial. Prior research has paid less attention to achieving organizational resilience. This study aims to use the digital capability theory to address this research gap and determine adaptive culture’s direct and indirect influence on organizational resilience. The impact of adaptive culture on organizational resilience is being investigated via the underlying mechanism of digital transformation.

The data was gathered using a cross-sectional, self-administered questionnaire with convenience sampling techniques from higher educational institutions in South Asia’s context. The direct and indirect effects were analyzed using SEM from 294 teaching faculty members.

The findings show a significant positive association between the study’s constructs. The association between adaptive culture and organizational resilience was partially mediated by digital transformation. The findings provide important insights for policymakers, academics and higher education institutions in developing adaptable cultures to achieve organizational resilience, primarily through digital transformation.

Few research studies have investigated a direct relationship among the constructs of the study to the best of the authors’ knowledge. It is the first study to investigate the role of digital transformation as the underlying mechanism between adaptive culture and organizational resilience. Theoretical contributions, practical implications and future research directions have all been presented.

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Resilient higher educational institutions in a world of digital transformation10.1108/FS-12-2022-0186Foresight2023-07-27© 2023 Emerald Publishing LimitedMaryam GullShazia ParveenAhmad Rizki SridadiForesightahead-of-printahead-of-print2023-07-2710.1108/FS-12-2022-0186https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/FS-12-2022-0186/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2023 Emerald Publishing Limited
Effect of enterprise risk management on firms’ outcomes with the moderating effect of knowledge managementhttps://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/FS-12-2022-0188/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatestThis study aims to test the effects of enterprise risk management (ERM) on firms’ outcomes and the moderating role of knowledge management (KM) on ERM–firms’ outcomes relationship. Data were collected via a questionnaire survey among public listed companies on the principal stock exchange market in Malaysia. A total of 124 questionnaires were received by mail questionnaire. The results were examined through structural equation modelling and partial least squares. The outcomes specified that ERM has a positive and noteworthy influence on firms’ outcomes, and KM has a moderating influence on the correlation among ERM and firms’ outcomes. The qualities, procedures and laws of the Malaysian corporations chosen as the sample firms, as well as their regulations, may not be representative of all other countries. Moreover, this study considered only one variable as a moderator, while there are many variables that different studies can consider as moderator or mediators. The results of this research imply that employees’ awareness and knowledge of events, opportunities and risk, along with their engagement in the institute’s strategy, are critical for risk management and controlling. For the managers, the results of this research can be helpful to their businesses by identifying the effective KM capability that may enhance their positive outcomes. Managers and organizations can use KM as an instrument to increase ERM effect on firms’ outcomes. KM and ERM are both significant intangible resources that are hard to imitate and are uniquely specified programs, which are important contributors to firm success in the long run. Moreover, the contingency theory of ERM was proved through the results of this study as it was identified in the public companies, that implementation of ERM as a strategic management practice, by organizations along with an effective KM may enhance the achievement of objectives and outcomes. This study helps to measure ERM comprehensively and how intangible assets such as KM can affect the comprehensive risk management process and its effectiveness.Effect of enterprise risk management on firms’ outcomes with the moderating effect of knowledge management
Parvaneh Saeidi, Sayyedeh Parisa Saeidi, Sayedeh Parastoo Saeidi, Mercedes Galarraga Carvajal, Hugo Villacrés Endara, Lorenzo Armijos
Foresight, Vol. ahead-of-print, No. ahead-of-print, pp.-

This study aims to test the effects of enterprise risk management (ERM) on firms’ outcomes and the moderating role of knowledge management (KM) on ERM–firms’ outcomes relationship.

Data were collected via a questionnaire survey among public listed companies on the principal stock exchange market in Malaysia. A total of 124 questionnaires were received by mail questionnaire. The results were examined through structural equation modelling and partial least squares.

The outcomes specified that ERM has a positive and noteworthy influence on firms’ outcomes, and KM has a moderating influence on the correlation among ERM and firms’ outcomes.

The qualities, procedures and laws of the Malaysian corporations chosen as the sample firms, as well as their regulations, may not be representative of all other countries. Moreover, this study considered only one variable as a moderator, while there are many variables that different studies can consider as moderator or mediators.

The results of this research imply that employees’ awareness and knowledge of events, opportunities and risk, along with their engagement in the institute’s strategy, are critical for risk management and controlling. For the managers, the results of this research can be helpful to their businesses by identifying the effective KM capability that may enhance their positive outcomes. Managers and organizations can use KM as an instrument to increase ERM effect on firms’ outcomes.

KM and ERM are both significant intangible resources that are hard to imitate and are uniquely specified programs, which are important contributors to firm success in the long run. Moreover, the contingency theory of ERM was proved through the results of this study as it was identified in the public companies, that implementation of ERM as a strategic management practice, by organizations along with an effective KM may enhance the achievement of objectives and outcomes.

This study helps to measure ERM comprehensively and how intangible assets such as KM can affect the comprehensive risk management process and its effectiveness.

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Effect of enterprise risk management on firms’ outcomes with the moderating effect of knowledge management10.1108/FS-12-2022-0188Foresight2023-07-13© 2023 Emerald Publishing LimitedParvaneh SaeidiSayyedeh Parisa SaeidiSayedeh Parastoo SaeidiMercedes Galarraga CarvajalHugo Villacrés EndaraLorenzo ArmijosForesightahead-of-printahead-of-print2023-07-1310.1108/FS-12-2022-0188https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/FS-12-2022-0188/full/html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_journalLatest© 2023 Emerald Publishing Limited