Transport and Climate Change: Volume 2

Climate change is recognised as one of the greatest challenges that contemporary global society faces. The IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) Fourth Assessment Report (2007) states that it is ‘very likely’ that anthropogenic global warming will result in a temperature rise of between 1.8°C and 4°C by the end of the 21st century. Temperatures at the upper end of this range are considered ‘dangerous’, and the international community is focused on attempting to limit the increase to within 2°C (Meinshausen et al., 2009). Increasing global temperatures are just one consequence. The world will face an increasing level of unpredictable and extreme weather patterns, each with different, but in many cases, serious consequences for life on earth (IPCC, 2007).

Purpose – To consider the emerging qualitative approaches that consider the future, exploring ways in which these may be better used to complement and extend established practice in global climate models.

Methodology/approach – A review of contemporary modelling approaches that consider the future for transport applications, with a focus on complexity and uncertainty issues, the search for foresight, the role of engagement and the credibility of qualitative foresight.

Findings – The importance of the need to incorporate socio-economic scenarios in climate change models and the possibilities offered by the tool of systematic qualitative foresight are demonstrated.

Originality/value – Explores limitations of quantitative modelling approaches to foresight and introduces a potentially complementary, innovative approach based on the systematic use of qualitative methodologies.

Purpose – To examine the relationship between aviation and climate change, and the international dimensions of air transport.

Methodology/approach – A review of aviation's impacts on the global climate, mitigation strategies to reduce this impact, and the possible consequences of climate change for commercial aviation.

Findings – Although a range of mitigation measures have been developed and implemented to reduce aircraft emissions in the short term, with some environmental benefit, there is a real need for the aviation sector to identify the possible impacts of climate change on air travel operations, both to aircraft in flight and to operations at airports. A further challenge will be to devise adaptation plans that will address the vulnerabilities and thus ensure safe aviation-related operations.

Social implications – The climate change impacts of aviation will adversely affect society. In addition, some individuals may have to reduce or stop flying as a result of increased taxes and legislation implemented in response to climate change.

Originality/value of paper – There is a novel focus on the adaptation challenges for the aviation industry in response to climate change.

Purpose – The shipping industry is generally recognised as having better fuel efficiency than other transport modes. In many regions of the world, therefore, policy has promoted shipping as the preferred freight transport mode of choice. In recent years, however, environmental problems associated with shipping have emerged. Several influential analyses have revealed the impact of shipping on air quality, particularly in the form of emissions of sulphur, nitrogen oxides and particulate matter, all of which have adverse consequences for human health.

Methodology/approach – An extensive environmental profile of shipping is provided, focusing specifically on the atmospheric pollution that is directly attributable to shipping operations.

Findings – It is important, however, to place the environmental profile of the shipping industry into the context of exactly how much transport work it does. This makes it clear that where shipping is a viable modal alternative then, in relative terms and most contexts, it still retains significant environmental advantages over other modes. The industry and its regulators have been slow, however, to improve its environmental profile and maintain its inherent advantage. Technical and operational measures which the industry may implement unilaterally are analysed, but these are deemed insufficient to stem the adverse tide of environmental concerns. Regulation is a necessity. Recently implemented regulatory measures are analysed, together with possible scenarios for the future regulation of greenhouse gas emissions. The IMO approach of global regulation is supported in preference to regionally based regulatory policies. There is also a danger that regulatory intervention may distort mode choice contexts.

Originality/value – The provision of an extensive environmental profile of shipping and an examination of this profile in relation to the importance of this transport mode to the global economy.

Purpose – To investigate the potential impacts of future climate change in the United Kingdom on its road and rail networks.

Methodology/approach – The climate change impacts of increasing summer temperatures, decreasing winter temperatures, increased heavy precipitation, greater numbers of extreme weather events and rises in sea level are reviewed.

Findings – Surface transportation is the most exposed element to the localised impacts of climate change. High summer temperatures will result in road rutting, rail buckling and decreased thermal comfort, whereas more intense winter precipitation will cause flooding, landslips and bridge scour across all modes. For all impacts, it is the extreme events (e.g. heat waves and storms) that are potentially the most devastating. As shown, there are some positive climate change impacts. For example, in the case of winter maintenance, all transport networks stand to benefit.

Originality/value – In order for transport to react appropriately to the potential changes in climate, it is essential to understand how the road and rail networks may be affected and to build strategies for both adaptation and mitigation into plans for future developments for both modes.

Purpose – The UK road freight sector is an example of an economically important sector that can be viewed from two different perspectives with regards to climate change: firstly, as a significant contributor to the problem in terms of greenhouse gas emissions, and secondly as a likely recipient of significant impacts (both positive and negative) of any resulting change in climate, especially any increase in extreme weather. It is this relatively neglected second perspective, freight as a vulnerable sector, which is explored.

Methodology/approach – The way in which the freight sector develops in the future will be explored both in terms of the future type of freight operations and potential changes in vehicle technology.

Findings – There is a need to understand how the overlying socio-economic scenario influences the development of the freight sector.

Originality/value – The examination of the impact of climate change on the freight sector is a particularly original aspect of this chapter.

Purpose – To examine the potential for switching short trips in urban areas from cars to walking and cycling, and the possible contribution, this could make to a reduction in transport-related greenhouse gas emissions.

Methods – Case studies in four urban areas combining a questionnaire survey, interviews with households and during journeys and in-depth ethnographies of everyday travel.

Findings – The barriers to an increase in walking and cycling in British urban areas are emphasised. It demonstrates that motivations for walking and cycling are mostly personal (health and local environment) and that the complexities and contingencies of everyday travel for many households, combined with inadequate infrastructure, safety concerns and the fact that walking and cycling are seen by many as abnormal modes of travel, mean that increasing rates of walking and cycling will be hard. Given that the contribution of trips less than 2 miles to transport-related greenhouse gas emissions is relatively small, it is argued that any gains from increased walking and cycling would mostly accrue to personal health and the local environment rather than to the UK's carbon reduction target.

Social implications – Positive attitudes towards walking and cycling are motivated mainly by personal concerns rather than global environmental issues.

Originality – Use of detailed ethnographic material in policy-related transport research.

Purpose – To provide a policy perspective on the relationship between transport and climate change.

Methodology/approach – Two key themes are identified and discussed: the meaning of a major change in a policy perspective, covering the Climate Change Act and the development of a Low Carbon Transition Plan. A theoretically informed framework applies and highlights the importance of understanding policy change from a historical perspective.

Originality/value – The largely incremental nature of the policy change is considered in terms of whether there are real prospects of a radical change in transport policy that will deliver a low carbon transport future, whilst also allowing transport to fulfil its many other roles.

Findings – The chapter demonstrates that the current approach to climate change policy has seen only minor adjustments to existing policy tools which are not consistent with the more radical shift in policy targets. This incremental approach may reflect the significant uncertainty over technological change or a reluctance to tackle the difficult issue of travel behaviour. Whilst oil prices remain high this may not be problematic but more proactive steering will be necessary in the coming years.

Purpose – To examine the cost-effectiveness of UK government policy with respect to the mitigation of carbon emissions from the transport sector.

Methodology/approach – Existing policy as set out by the Department for Transport in Low Carbon Transport: A Greener Future is examined. This document elaborates a Low Carbon Transport Strategy intended to achieve annual emissions savings of 17.7 MtCO2 by 2020. A wide range of policy areas where further action could be taken to reduce carbon emissions are examined and their cost-effectiveness considered.

Findings – Measures that influence behaviour including smarter choices, eco-driving across modes, freight best practice and modest price increases are highly cost-effective. More cost-effective routes to saving 17.7 MtCO2 are identified, as are further cost-effective savings.

Originality/value – It appears that government targets could be delivered and indeed exceeded at lower cost than the Low Carbon Transport Strategy. However, policy development is influenced by a wide range of factors which help to explain why cost-effective measures are not always fully exploited.

Purpose – To provide a behavioural perspective on the relationship between transport and climate change.

Methodology/approach – The factors influencing travel behaviour and the elements critical to behaviour formation are reviewed. The importance of behaviour change measures to reduce the impact of transport on climate change, and the application of behaviour change measures to increase the sustainability of transport, are examined.

Findings – There have been a range of travel behaviour measures implemented, such as individualised marketing programmes and travel plans, which have demonstrated some behavioural change impacts, in turn affecting climate change emissions, although they tend to be localised and small-scale.

Social implications – There is a real challenge to encourage individuals within society to exhibit more sustainable travel behaviour.

Originality/value – A range of behavioural issues still need to be resolved in terms of the relationship between transport and climate change, including a need to influence attitudes, to bridge the gaps between attitudes and both behaviour and intention, to make an impact at points of transition for individuals, to use cognitive dissonance as a way of harnessing social norms, and to understand more fully social pressure and group influence.

Purpose – The social dimensions of the relationship between transport and climate change are examined, in particular, the potential for unintended negative consequences to directly and/or indirectly arise from policies to reduce the climate change impact of the transport sector. It takes the example of current policies in the UK as its primary focus.

Methodology/approach – A combination of literature, policy review and the quantitative and qualitative evidence gathered through primary fieldwork research from a number of related studies.

Findings – It is identified that different social groups can experience very different outcomes in accessing transport and adapting to changes to the transport system, whether these are uniquely targeted towards certain individuals or more systemically applied across the whole population. For this reason, it is essential that policy makers fully understand the potential vulnerability and resilience of different social groups to policies that are intended to address transport-related climate change. The key component of social impacts should be systematically analyzed, by income, potential vulnerability and their spatial and temporal distribution, as well as according to resilience/adaptability to the proposed intervention. This continues to pose an important future challenge for research in this area of transport policy making.

Originality/value – This chapter highlights the potential for unintended negative social consequences to directly and/or indirectly arise from policies to reduce the climate change impact of the transport sector.

Purpose – To investigate the potential future role of information delivery in terms of reducing transport-related emissions. The assumed response of travellers to information and the notions of content and context are provided, together with factors that can determine an individual's propensity to seek and engage with travel information.

Methodology/approach – A review of information use, the behavioural stages of change and context design is undertaken, incorporating a research case study in the use of framing.

Findings – Recent theoretical and empirical insights into behavioural change provide new insights into the role of information in reducing transport-related emissions. Traveller information offers many benefits to the user and could be influential in affecting travel behaviour change, although there are socio-psychological factors outside the control of information service designers that also need to be considered, such as the ‘stage of change’ people are at in relation to a change in behaviour.

Originality/value – The chapter examines how travel information could go beyond the provision of trip choice data and incorporate contextual elements to make it more effective. Concepts related to the Transtheoretical Model (stages of change) and the latest thinking in behavioural economics are discussed in relation to an increase in the likelihood of environmental travel alternatives being considered and chosen.

Purpose – To consider the potential for transport CO2 reductions in Oxfordshire. It examines the CO2 baseline within the county and elsewhere in the United Kingdom, assessing the high and low emitters in terms of relative transport CO2 emissions. A target for the county is developed at 1.2 tCO2 per capita by 2030, and ultimately 0.5 tCO2 per capita by 2050, and scenario analysis is used to assess the potential interventions, policy packages and different pathways available for CO2 emission reduction.

Methodology/approach – The central Oxfordshire transport model (COTOM) is used to quantify the likely impacts of different policy areas over the long term to 2030. It is illustrated how the strategic policy direction can be set within transport, and attempts are made to quantify the scale of likely impacts from the options available.

Findings – Current interventions and levels of funding for sustainable transport are not strong enough to significantly reduce transport CO2 emissions in line with the national UK targets and there is a significant underestimation of the scales of change required. There is a major discontinuity between the ‘greenwash’ of the conjecture at the national governmental level and the level of funding necessary to actually implement effective actions at the local level.

Originality/value – The chapter is original in illustrating how the strategic policy direction can be set within transport at the regional level and also in attempting to quantify the scale of likely impacts.

Due to the more pressing need, the majority of material in this book has dealt with mitigation; interventions to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases (IPCC, 2001) away from a scenario of ‘business as usual’. An early academic review on climate change mitigation and transport appeared in 2007 (Chapman, 2007), a year before the United Kingdom committed itself to the highly ambitious Climate Change Act 2008. The final act sought an ambitious 80% cut in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. Although criticised in this book as being unrealistic, this is the level of intervention required if ‘dangerous’ climate change is to be avoided (defined as greater than 2°C rise in global temperatures). As Chapter 8 (a policy perspective) explains, such targets, however unrealistic, are informed by considerable input from expert opinion (e.g. Delphi studies) and require a detailed knowledge of current emissions as well as accurate predictions/scenarios of future emissions. For this reason, scenarios and the control of uncertainty were discussed in Chapter 2 towards the start of this book. Indeed, the commonly quoted ‘business as usual’ scenario is in itself too simplistic and highly improbable, not only due to mitigation measures imposed by governments, but also because of the future scarcity of oil which will force change in the medium term regardless. Backcasting is the key tool used to model the continuum of socio-economic scenarios which exist between ‘business as usual’ and the equally unlikely case of all targets being met. However, the science is inherently difficult and the end result is a wide range of permutations and storylines, largely dependent on mitigation. Early progress towards the 80% target has not been promising, but the decarbonisation of the transport sector is still seen as key in meeting the demands of the Climate Change Act 2008. There is a need to tackle the three primary culprits of greenhouse gas emissions in the transport sector: aviation, freight and car ownership (Chapman, 2007). This book has examined in detail how this could be achieved in all these sectors using a range of aspects relating to technological and behavioural change.

Erel Avineri is associate professor in travel behaviour at the University of the West of England (UWE), Bristol. He has 20 years experience of consultancy, research and teaching in transport, logistics and operations management. Since he joined UWE in 2004 he has lead research in the fields of travel behaviour, travel information systems, road safety and behavioural change. Dr Avineri has gained wide recognition for his research on travel behaviour under uncertainty, the incorporation of socio-psychological aspects into behaviour models and the design of behaviour change policy measures. Applying choice architecture, Dr Avineri studies the effect of ‘nudges’ on the perception of and attitudes to CO2 reduction. He holds degrees in industrial engineering and management (BSc) and transportation sciences (MSc, PhD) from Technion-Israel Institute of Technology.