Contemporary Issues in Behavioral Finance: Volume 101

Cover of Contemporary Issues in Behavioral Finance

Table of contents

(19 chapters)

Prelims

Pages i-xxii
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Abstract

Consumers are faced with many new products. In almost every product category it is seen that there are more alternatives than provided in previous years. This situation may cause consumers to feel uncomfortable/uncertain, especially about new products. Therefore, since they perceive this uncertainty, customers want to be in control. Control is one of the ways to help customers to decide on perceived risky situations.

The main purpose of the study is to explain the effects of the risk and control drive on consumer behavior and determine how businesses reduce the risk that consumers feel.

It is critical for enterprises to increase their brand awareness in order to reduce consumers’ risk perceptions and increase their controls (cognitive, behavioral, and decision) during purchasing decisions. Also, it will be useful for them to focus on activities increasing brand loyalty. They can especially carry out marketing activities allowing consumers to try new products or providing money back guarantees. Moreover, in order to reduce the risk perception and increase control by the customers, making the promotional contents of the product understandable and simple without hidden factors will contribute in a positive way.

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It is possible to see effective use of Artificial Intelligence-based systems in many fields because it easily outperforms traditional solutions or provides solutions for the problems not previously solved. Prediction applications are a widely used mechanism in research because they allow for forecasting of future states. Logical inference mechanisms in the field of Artificial Intelligence allow for faster and more accurate and powerful computation. Machine Learning, which is a sub-field of Artificial Intelligence, has been used as a tool for creating effective solutions for prediction problems.

In this chapter the authors will focus on employing Machine Learning techniques for predicting data for future states of economic using techniques which include Artificial Neural Networks, Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System, Dynamic Boltzmann Machine, Support Vector Machine, Hidden Markov Model, Bayesian Learning on Gaussian process model, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average, Autoregressive Model (Poggi, Muselli, Notton, Cristofari, & Louche, 2003), and K-Nearest Neighbor Algorithm. Findings revealed positive results in terms of predicting economic data.

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Abstract

Capital markets thrive on information, and the information revolution has transformed these markets all over the world. Investors can now keep track of the movements of capital markets in real-time and they react to the flow of information from around the world. One of the concerns of stock market investors is whether the markets operate efficiently, independently, and with sound fundamentals. However, real market movements tend to exhibit a link as is evident from recent market movements across the world.

The assessment of interdependence between stock markets is an important aspect of international portfolio management. The aim of this chapter is to examine the shock and volatility spillover between the Standard and Poor’s 500 (S&P500) index from the United States (US) Stock Exchange and the Istanbul Stock Exchange 100 (BIST100) index from the Stock Exchange Istanbul.

S&P500 index, which is the most important index representing US markets, and BIST100 index, which is the index representing the Turkish market, were used as variables in this study. In the analysis, the causality in variance test was applied to determine the volatility spillover between these two markets. Later, multivariate GARCH (MGARCH) models were used to measure the volatility spillover in the markets. VAR(1)-GARCH (1,1)-Diagonal BEKK model was applied to the daily data to determine the shock and volatility spillover in the markets.

As a result of the variance causality test, it was found that there is a bi-directional volatility spillover between S&P500 index and BIST100 index. When the return spillover between the markets is examined, a one-way spillover from the S&P500 index to the BIST100 index emerged. Diagonal BEKK model results show that each market is affected by its own news (unexpected shocks) and volatility. Furthermore, the volatility is persistent for both markets. These findings demonstrate that the US market and the Turkish market interact with each other.

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A review of the marketing and tourism literatures revealed that brand ­reputation is a powerful tool that affects not only the image of the product or destination, but also purchase/visit decisions. The cost of failure in building a product image is high, but not as fatal as in the case of a destination. Moreover, destination branding is considered as a tool of competitive advantage, on the principles of value-added effect and equity criteria. Destination is an amalgam of geographic, economic, demographic, climatic, technological, environmental, political, and demographic factors which influence the competitive advantage, if built effectively.

Anholt (2007) finds evidence of a correlation between the positive experience of visiting a country and positive feeling about its products, its government, its culture, and its people. Deeper understanding of place brands in tourism destinations and reputation might be helpful for improving competitiveness.

One example of implementing a measurement of a country’s performance and reputation is the Anholt-GMI Brand Index, which evaluates the perception of countries as brands and measures the power and appeal of a nation’s brand image. This approach can be helpful to understand behavior and decisions of visitors to the destinations and to improve their competitiveness. The purpose of the chapter will be to explain how brand reputation influences consumers’ behavior.

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The development of information technologies and the increase in the number of new generation of technology-based consumers lead to significant changes in the promotion and positioning strategies implemented in consumer markets. Applications such as Augmented Reality (AR) have become widespread in promotion activities.

In this study, the authors aimed to determine whether there was a difference between customers’ brand trust and purchase intentions regarding real experiences of the consumers at the store, experiences about AR applications, and traditional advertisements.

Results show that AR applications differ in terms of brand trust and purchasing intention according to traditional advertisements, and the attitudes of consumers toward brand trust and purchase intention in AR applications are more favorable than traditional advertisements. In the light of the results of the study, various strategy proposals were presented to researchers and marketing practitioners.

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Purpose. The purpose of this chapter is to determine the role of women cooperatives as an employment policy in Turkey. In this context, the aim is to investigate the effects of women’s cooperatives movement on the social and economic development and female participation within the labor force.

Method. In this chapter, the importance of cooperatives in the realization of economic development has been evaluated more qualitatively. The history of Turkish cooperatives has been briefly emphasized and the impact of women’s cooperatives on sustainable development goals (SDG) has been evaluated through a systematic literature review.

Results. After reviewing the literature and evaluating the samples of women’s cooperatives in Turkey with the sustainable development framework goals, it has been determined that cooperatives are an opportunity for the employment of women. It has been seen that women cooperatives are a contribution to the SDGs with their structure and action. In this respect, it can be said that women’s cooperatives can be regarded as an effective policy for increasing women’s employment in regions with traditional labor market structures.

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Introduction – Markowitz (1952) argues that individuals act rationally in their financial decisions. In contrast, Kahneman and Tversky (1979) claim that the psychological characteristics of people significantly affect financial decisions. In making these decisions, factors such as age, gender, and educational status may have an impact.

Purpose – The purpose of this study is to determine whether financial literacy has an impact on individuals’ cognitive biases related to financial investments.

Methodology – A sample of 444 individuals were surveyed.

Findings – In the results of study (1) it was determined that financial literacy leads to differences in cognitive biases; and (2) cognitive biases of individuals who do not receive finance education are different from individuals who receive finance education and professionals in the business world. The findings indicate that the increase in the level of financial literacy of individuals will reduce the cognitive biases and heuristics, and therefore will have a positive effect on the investor behavior in financial markets.

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The authors herein carry out a literature review of retirement planning and highlights that proper retirement planning starts by looking at the level of income an individual is likely to continue receiving at retirement if they were to take no action, then comparing this to what they would need to lead the lifestyle they desire. The authors review the traditional economic theories that many are accustomed to when interpreting financial matters (i.e., rational behavior) and compares this to the various studies and articles found in literature. The authors then dig into retirement planning in Malta and the behavioral obstacles to proper planning and how these are tackled in different European countries.

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The purpose of the chapter is to analyze the results of the primary survey on consumer cash and cashless payments in Poland in 2018 in the context of previous (secondary) surveys carried out in Poland and other EU countries.

The primary survey was carried out between February 9 and March 1, 2018, using the Computer-Assisted Personal Interview method. The survey was conducted on a nationwide sample of Polish nationals aged 15 or more. A total of 1,100 interviews were conducted. To ensure the representativeness of the collected data, the edge weighting (the iterative technique-rim weighting) was applied in accordance with the structure of the Polish population, including the variables of gender, age, and education.

The obtained results may be used by the participants of the payment services market in Poland, including the card issuers, clearing agents, payment organizations, and banks in order to discover the reasons for a high level of cash payments and to seek solutions to increase the cashless turnover in order to achieve better results in the future. In addition, this study fills a gap in the research in the field of the cashless payments and contributes to the creation of a literature on the cashless payments as related to the cash payments, with special emphasis on the consumers’ financial knowledge and skills.

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Introduction – In recent years virtual reality and augmented reality (AR) applications, which are widely used in many sectors, have become important tools in marketing communication. The change and differentiation that takes place in a revolutionary digital environment also affect social change. This change has led to the use of AR applications as a communication tool to affect all decisions of consumers in the purchasing process.

Purpose – The focus of this study is on AR applications using an experimental application in the context of marketing communication with experiential marketing and new technologies.

Method – This experimentation was carried out on over 2 million downloaded mobile applications by Turkish users of an AR brand of wall paint. The experiment included 32 consumers, painters, and interior designers in Istanbul. These formed the groups of the study. The authors aimed to determine whether AR mobile applications are seen differently between these three groups in terms of attitudes and buying intentions vis-a-vis other brands. Thus, the authors will determine the importance of AR applications in marketing communication, satisfaction of experience, and the effect on purchase intention in terms of the different groups. In line with the results, strategies will be presented to marketing practitioners. The literature review of the study enabled the formation and design of the research method and scales.

Findings – The preliminary study revealed that the attitudes toward experiential marketing, brand attitudes, and purchase intention using the AR application were significantly different from the catalog application.

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The exchange rate has been an important topic in the Turkish Economy for many years. It affects prices with exchange rate pass-through. The aim of this chapter is to analyze the dual relationship between exports and imports, exports and the exchange rate, imports and the exchange rate by using time series analysis. The results indicate that there is only one causal relationship between exports and imports. The direction is from imports to exports.

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This study is concerned with markets operating in Turkey in the Istanbul Stock Exchange (BIST), which have been observed and studied in relation to herd behavior. During the research part of the study, the existence of herd behavior was investigated with the help of the daily closing price data of the firms in BIST between January 2011 and December 2017. In the research section of the study, the authors used regression analysis. In the analysis, the authors used the index value of the BIST whole Index. The average value of the index value of BIST whole Index was taken. Then, according to this average, 1% percentile and 5% percentile were taken. In the periods in the 1% percentile (at the dates) the result was that herd behavior was present. The herd behavior was observed for the periods (for dates) included in the percentile of 1%. On the other hand, the results of the analysis for the 5% percentile show that the herd behavior is only seen in the upper extremes.

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Internet banking has a very important place in the banking sector. The majority of banks located in Turkey offer many technological services. However, it is also seen that the use of internet banking does not reach the desired levels. The purpose of this study is to determine the factors affecting the internet banking preferences of the bank customers and the relationships between the demographic characteristics of bank customers and internet banking usage in Usak city of Turkey. Data from the questionnaires were analyzed using factor analysis, t-test and ANOVA analysis. As a result, seven factors were found to be effective in the use of internet banking. These are (1) “effect of social circle”; (2) “benefits of internet banking”; (3) “the usefulness of internet banking”; (4) “speed and time savings”; (5) “ease of use and cost”; (6) “the ability to use the internet and the advantages of internet banking”; and (7) “the suitability to life and work style.” In addition, it was determined that there is a significant relationship between the demographic characteristics of bank customers and internet banking usage.

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In this chapter, the authors studied cognitive biases such as certainty effect, isolating effect, and overconfidence effect in the Turkish version of “Who Wants to be a Millionaire” TV show. The research was carried out by watching the show during different dates between September 2013 and April 2015 and filling in a questionnaire, which consists of 25 questions. A total of 408 contestants were observed and evidence was found for both certainty and isolation effects.

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Starting in the 1980s, financial liberalization and technological developments have enabled individual investors to participate in financial markets and carry out easy transactions. With these developments, academics began to wonder how the individual investors decide to invest and what factors affect these decisions.

According to traditional finance theory, it is suggested that markets are efficient and investors show rational behaviors in their financial purchasing decisions. However, in many studies conducted in recent years, it was determined that investors included emotional elements as well as rational elements in their decision-making process and therefore exhibited irrational behaviors by believing rumors instead of real information. It is thought that many factors such as personal characteristics, psychological factors, demographic and socio-economic factors play a role in the behavior of investors in purchasing a financial product.

In this study, the importance of herd behavior, which is one of the psychological factors that play a very important role in financial markets, on financial product purchasing process is examined in the light of the behavioral finance theory. It is thought that information included in the study will be useful for researchers who want to study herd behavior and for those who are interested in the subject.

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In this chapter our objective was to gain an understanding of what affects Maltese individuals’ behaviors when it comes to retirement planning. Given that longevity is on the increase, state pension income is limited (and most probably unsustainable over the long term) and that many individuals expect to be able to enjoy a comfortable retirement, it sets out to determine which macro- and micro-environmental factors are likely to encourage positive behavior or otherwise.

We did this by consulting and analyzing existing literature in chapter 8 of this book and designing an online survey which was specifically created to capture qualitative data about public sentiment and behaviors with respect to retirement planning.

The study identifies a general sense of confusion in relation to financial concepts related to retirement. In line with other countries’ findings, the prevalence of myopia, procrastination and inertia has also been observed through the research undertaken.

Through established behavioral finance theories and literature, as well as actual European practical examples, the research explores the best ways of “nudging” people into recognizing the importance of acting and making the right long-term financial decisions, to their own benefit and to that of society.

Notwithstanding, that overall savings of the Maltese are around the average established for Europe, the study found that savings tend to be shorter term, and therefore insignificant when considering the actual requirements for the desired quality of life at retirement. The research showed how, as with other countries, behavioral biases have been limiting people from acting or making the right choices.

Of the most prominent of behaviors, procrastination, myopia, and inertia were observed. In the local market, these seemed to stem from a sense of disorientation as to the meaning of certain concepts, how to initiate the process and which actions to take. In fact, although many did not admit it outright, respondents showed low levels of confidence in their abilities, and avoid acting out of fear that it may not be the right choice. At the same time, they would try to rationalize their lack of action by the premise that things would sort themselves out, although this is typically labeled as overconfidence, it is likely to be an attempt to feel better about their stance on the matter.

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This chapter offers an empirical examination of the impact of World Governance indicators (WGIs) on stock market development. The understanding is based on the premise of institutional economics that strong institutional governance, in terms of laws and regulations, results in positive developments in financial institutions.

The data which covers the years 1996–2016, include all world countries where a stock market operates. The authors use standard statistical tools that include Johansen co-integration test, linearity, normality tests, and regression analysis, together with discriminant analysis as a robustness check.

The empirical findings show that (a) a negative association exists between Voice and Accountability and stock market development, (b) a positive association exists between each of Political Stability, Government Effectiveness, Regulatory Quality, Rule of Law and Control of Corruption, and stock market development for most World’s regions stock markets, (c) both Voice and Accountability and Political Stability indicators are the major influential indicators for the stock market development across world stock markets.

This chapter offers quantitative evidence about the benefits of strong institutional governance to stock market development. In addition, the chapter offers significant guidelines to policymakers regarding the institutional factors that can be enhanced to promote stock market development.

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Index

Pages 283-291
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Cover of Contemporary Issues in Behavioral Finance
DOI
10.1108/S1569-37592019101
Publication date
2019-07-04
Book series
Contemporary Studies in Economic and Financial Analysis
Editors
Series copyright holder
Emerald Publishing Limited
ISBN
978-1-78769-881-9
Book series ISSN
1569-3759