Modeling Economic Growth in Contemporary Russia

Cover of Modeling Economic Growth in Contemporary Russia

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(12 chapters)

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Abstract

This chapter examines the effects of financial deepening on the sources of economic growth in Russia. Previous empirical literature based on cross-country studies presented the evidence that in developing countries financial development affects capital accumulation more than productivity growth. We tested this proposition with panel data from 75 regions of Russia’s regions between 2008 and 2015 using system generalized method of moments techniques. Our results are not consistent with this proposition: the effect of finance on output growth occurs primarily through productivity; the positive influence of finance on capital accumulation is less significant, which is more typical for developed countries. This outcome can be explained by the fact that structural problems in Russia and developed countries are somewhat similar. More helpful for Russian economy are tools that would help business get a more profound effect from efforts to promote innovation and boost productivity than from increasing investment by expanding credit.

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The chapter contains a methodology for formalized evaluation of the role of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (Bank of Russia) in ensuring monetary and financial sustainability with the help of the monetary policy transmission mechanism and its inflation target regime. The significance of the research of the Bank of Russia operations to ensure financial sustainability is due to a number of circumstances: the uniqueness of the Bank of Russia that appeared only 27 years ago and experienced several devastating events related to the 1998 financial crisis, the global financial crisis of 2008–2009, and the stagnation of the Russian economy in 2014–2016, as well as high volatility of world prices for Russian commodity exports and the latest contra-Russian sanctions that significantly affected the volatility of the Russian ruble. Taking into account all the above, the issue of the Bank of Russia’s effective activities in the long run is aggravated by the fact that there are still more open questions than proven relationships of causes and effects regarding the potential of specific monetary policy instruments in the context of low-growth and high-volatility environment. The modeling of the Bank of Russia strategic and operational targets has been based on the parameters’ dependencies presented by the money (credit) multiplier in the interpretation of G. Schinasi (2006) and on the instability of stable economy hypothesis of H. Minsky (2008). As a result, there have been established the marginal levels of definite indicators of the banking system performance that could allow the Bank of Russia to ensure financial sustainability in the low-growth and high-volatility environment.

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The chapter contains a methodology for formalized evaluation of the public fiscal policy from the view point of its impact on the financial stability of a national economy using the example of the Russian Federation and taking into account the fiscal multipliers’ effects. The significance of this problem is predetermined by recent trends in Russia’s development, when the national economy legs twice behind the world indicators. Taking into account the importance of the Russian budget system as a mechanism for the redistribution of gross domestic product (GDP), the financial stability safeguarding has been connected with the public finance sustainability and with the federal budget revenues and expenditures equilibrium. There are used the methodology of analysis of economic systems’ dynamic factors of financial stability as well as fiscal multipliers’ effects, aiming at managing national economy’s long-term development with the ultimate purpose to maintain the GDP growth rates. Taking into account the fiscal multipliers’ values, the model comparisons of the macroeconomics and budget parameters’ dynamics prove the necessity of the budget consolidation policy in 2018–2020 provided that the budget expenditures efficiency increases. The latter has been proved by modeling dependences represented by the fiscal multipliers’ effects in terms of national financial stability.

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What core strategic capabilities should multinational and domestic firms possess to create competitive organization in Russia? In this chapter, we try to answer this question with our pilot case study of six firms operating in the Russian high-tech, low-tech, and services markets – four global companies and two Russian firms. Our research shows that customer orientation is the crucial strategic capability, highlighted by all of the firms involved in the research. For multinational and high-tech players, this is followed by research and development, mentioned by two-thirds of the respondents. Moreover, the four multinational companies leverage their strategic capabilities of cross-cultural management and general sales capabilities as keys for their success in Russia. Russian firms emphasize importance of entrepreneurship, understanding local customer needs, and an engaged team as strategic capabilities that particularly differentiate them from the multinational players in the Russian market.

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For at least the last 10 years, the Russian authorities have been declaring the need to move to an innovative path of economic development. The government actively initiates and applies various instruments and measures to promote innovation. However, the effectiveness of the Russian innovation policy is still in question. The chapter examines the evolution of state policy to foster innovation growth in Russia since 2000 and describes some sets of achievements and problems for different stages of this policy. In addition to analysis of changes in the innovation sphere at the macro-level, we discuss the primary motivations and limitations at the micro-level (firm level). As a result, the critical institutional barriers to innovation-based growth are revealed. In the same time, certain successes have been achieved in some sectors, and we consider various opportunities to improve Russian technological and innovation policy.

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The aim of the chapter is to develop some approaches to turn education, predetermining the quality of human capital, into the most important factor of national inclusive development. This problem is titled by the World Bank Report (2018) as “Learning: to realize education’s promise.” There has been revealed a fundamental contradiction between the two processes: the training technology is improved, the treasury of knowledge is enriched, the scientific progress accelerates, on one side, but on the other side, according to the international Program for International Student Assessment (PISA) study (2015), about 28% of the Russian 15-year-olds, for example, did not master the minimum necessary skills in at least one area of the three (natural science, mathematics, and communication in their native language). Meanwhile the correlation between educational and economic “failures” is high. Reduction in school failure in half (up to 15%) corresponds to the growth of the country’s GDP by 2% at the perspective of 10 years, by 5–6% – in 20 years, and by over 10% – in 30 years. The authors identify and substantiate the most important factor of the low basic knowledge of schoolchildren: it deals with the phenomenon of stable psychological and cognitive barriers in their minds. As a result of this theory, a model of educational consciousness has been developed, which makes it possible to overcome educational failure and to form algorithms for successful learning.

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The chapter is devoted to the factors aimed at optimizing the partnership of public and private sectors in the sphere of public infrastructure development. In modern conditions of economic slowdown and budget consolidation in Russia, the infrastructure has become the most important driver of economic growth and public–private partnership (PPP) – the most perspective form of cooperation of public and private investors of infrastructure projects. PPP interpretation as a structural relationship of economic system allows the authors to model optimal combination of formal and informal institutions in order to stimulate long-term economic growth. It becomes promising to model replacement of budget funds by private investment to ensure positive impact on the Russian development despite the budget consolidation. It could only be achieved in the case of formal institutionalization of appropriate conditions for private investors as to low transactional costs and attractive financial parameters. There have been determined some PPP standards connected with public infrastructure projects in order to reduce capital expenditures of the budget funds and increase the inflow of private investment. The authors have managed to obtain model estimates and graphic interpretation of government expenditures’ efficiency increase that could help to structure the fiscal conditions to induce positive multiplier effect as a result of PPP forms improvement in the public infrastructure development.

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The purpose of the article is to study the recent tendencies of growth of Russia’s agro-industrial complex (AIC), determine the optimal scenario of its development, and develop recommendations in the sphere of state regulation for its practical implementation. While there are tendencies of growing production and increase in Russia’s export, against this background, there is a tendency of quicker increase of import of food – if it continues, positive balance of foreign trade of food products in 2018 will turn into negative balance in 2020–2024. Though efficiency of crop farming is peculiar for a tendency of quick growth, efficiency of animal breeding is stable, which does not allow overcoming the growing deficit of food in Russia, which grows under the influence of the tendency of wear of fixed funds and slow implementation of new fixed funds due to insufficient financing. Scenarios of mid-term (i.e., until 2024) growth of Russia’s AIC are compiled, of which the most optimal is scenario that requires technological advancements, due to which increase in the value of index of food security up to 85.00 points (27%) will be achieved and the set goals of growth and development of Russia’s AIC will be reached. For a successful optimal scenario of the growth of Russia’s AIC, we offer recommendations in the sphere of state regulation of its digital modernization: adoption of the national strategy of transition to AIC 4.0 within the program “Digital economy of the RF,” development of import substitution in the AIC with emphasis on B2B markets, preparation of the technological platform for transition to AIC 4.0, and sufficient financing for digital modernization of the AIC.

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Smart cities boost economic growth around the world by changing to the smart environment, smart economy, smart technologies, smart human capital, smart infrastructure, and smart governance to improve economic growth and better use of limited resources. We justify the development model of the “smart city” concept in Russia within a green economy approach and the managerial relations of innovative smart projects implemented within the public–private partnership (PPP). Our toolkit allows us to assess the effectiveness of management decisions in the implementation of the “smart city” concept and to carry out continuous public–private monitoring of the effectiveness of innovations in implementing smart PPP projects. To this end, we propose and justify a new indicator of the effectiveness of managerial decision-making, taking into account the quality of the information received during the implementation of innovative PPP projects, which allows calculating the degree of utilization of the potential capabilities of a company participating in a PPP.

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There is a long-going discussion in Russia focusing on finding new stimulus for economic growth. Being very rich with natural recourses, Russia has enjoyed extensive economic growth model for many centuries. The world is changing. Russia as any country which is to keep up with the dynamics and the quality of the world economic growth must find some new technologies and economic triggers. Green investment can be regarded as the key instrument to achieve faster economic growth and to make technological gap narrower. The chapter focuses on state policy and business practice in green investment in Russia.

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Index

Pages 297-305
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Cover of Modeling Economic Growth in Contemporary Russia
DOI
10.1108/9781789732658
Publication date
2019-05-23
Editor
ISBN
978-1-78973-265-8